Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[Dark Knight]

A lot of those books should belong in the quarter drek boxes 

[EastEnd1]

On 10/4/2023 at 11:49 AM, DC# said:

The ASM #238 results above are not out of line for the year - quick look at GPA and it has been bouncing between 1800 and 2200 all year long - back and forth - up and down.    Another one to keep an eye on to see if it starts consistently selling below that 1800 mark.   

ASM #238 isn't a modern and has been a key for a very long time.  I'm talking about the hordes of common moderns that were being submitted by the hundreds to CGC and clogging up the grading works in recent years.  Many that previously sold for $100+ now seem to sell for less than $40... not such a viable business anymore.  

[Sweet Lou 14]

At least this 9.8 got above the $100 mark.

[Nazirite]

Skip to 2:50 

Not really my wheelhouse but interesting nonetheless. 

 

[Telegan]

On 10/4/2023 at 10:20 AM, EastEnd1 said:

Other than the top keys, the bottom does seem to have fallen out on the 9.8 modern business... 

I think pretty much any comic of any grade where there is not much rarity and had a massive ramp-up in price will have a massive downfall as people try to beat the next guy and dump them.  This is part of the reason anything from Silver Age to modern comics have been getting slaughtered (for the most part).  I don't think Golden Age is immune to it if they keep ramping up, but the likely decline may not be "all at once" since a lot of those comics don't come out for sale as regularly as your ASM #300, AF #15, etc.  Just about every auction has the latter comics.

[1Cool]

On 10/4/2023 at 5:42 PM, Nazirite said:

Skip to 2:50 

Not really my wheelhouse but interesting nonetheless. 

 

Very detailed review of the current market.  Thanks for posting it.  I’d be shocked if his charts don’t continue to correct at least to the 2019 levels which would basically erase any profits for a 4 year period.  A healthy correction especially for the collectors who are buying.

Edited October 4, 2023 by 1Cool

[captainzombie]

On 10/4/2023 at 6:48 PM, 1Cool said:

Very detailed review of the current market.  Thanks for posting it.  I’d be shocked if his charts don’t continue to correct at least to the 2019 levels which would basically erase any profits for a 4 year period.  A healthy correction especially for the collectors who are buying.

From the looks of Swags charts, I do think we are heading back to 2019 levels. Right now we are hovering around some of the Spring 2020 numbers, but we are not too far off from the 2019 price levels. Actually we do need to get to those 2018/2019 levels for things to correct and then hopefully the good books can rise back and up naturally.

[Poekaymon]

On 10/4/2023 at 8:07 PM, captainzombie said:

From the looks of Swags charts, I do think we are heading back to 2019 levels. Right now we are hovering around some of the Spring 2020 numbers, but we are not too far off from the 2019 price levels. Actually we do need to get to those 2018/2019 levels for things to correct and then hopefully the good books can rise back and up naturally.

Just to add a little perspective, this is definitely not true for the big ticket copper keys I got in 2019, most of which are still up 2-3x. 

[Telegan]

On 10/4/2023 at 7:07 PM, captainzombie said:

From the looks of Swags charts, I do think we are heading back to 2019 levels. Right now we are hovering around some of the Spring 2020 numbers, but we are not too far off from the 2019 price levels. Actually we do need to get to those 2018/2019 levels for things to correct and then hopefully the good books can rise back and up naturally.

A lot of comics or specific grades of specific comics have corrected back to pre-2019 levels.  There's always the overshoot of prices.  How do you know if the prices overshot on the downside?  Wait another 10 years and look back. lol.

 

On 10/4/2023 at 7:59 PM, Poekaymon said:

Just to add a little perspective, this is definitely not true for the big ticket copper keys I got in 2019, most of which are still up 2-3x. 

I think Swag's "indexes" are just a suggestion to go by for those comics.  Not every comic is in the index, and just like in stocks and stock indexes, just because the index goes down doesn't mean you stay away from any individual comic or comics in the index.  This is made even more complicated by the grades within a comic within an index that all react differently.

[maz25]

On 10/4/2023 at 5:42 PM, Nazirite said:

Skip to 2:50 

Not really my wheelhouse but interesting nonetheless. 

 

A solid lesson in macro-economics.  Micro is on a completely different level, with so many variables. 

Edited October 5, 2023 by maz25
edit

[lou_fine]

On 10/4/2023 at 6:39 AM, DC# said:

23% decline in a month on Heritage.    Peak was $4990 in March 2021.  

Any idea if that $4,990 peak figure was nothing more than just an outlier or were there also another 4 or 5 sales in that same price range like the 5 sales which you show in the $1K to $1.5K range during the past month?  

[lou_fine]

On 10/4/2023 at 7:19 AM, jjonahjameson11 said:

Some recent ASM sales from Heritage.  Haven’t seen prices this low in quite a while.

The problem I see with your examples here is that every single one of them is for a book in CGC 9.8 grade which is not where the true collector's real marketplace for comic books is. 

Personally, I believe this top end condition niche of the marketplace is really where the speculators and flippers hang out, and as such is a much more volatile subset of the overall comic book marketplace and tend to overshoot on both extremes.  A better measure of the health of the overall comic book marketplace is to probably compare prices a few condition grades lower than your nosebleed 9.8 grades.  

[DC#]

On 10/4/2023 at 9:29 PM, lou_fine said:

Any idea if that $4,990 peak figure was nothing more than just an outlier or were there also another 4 or 5 sales in that same price range like the 5 sales which you show in the $1K to $1.5K range during the past month?  

33 copies sold in 2021 at avg of 3500.   Only 5 of 33 at 4k and up and the other 4 mostly around 4200.   So an outlier I would say 

[lou_fine]

On 10/4/2023 at 10:01 PM, DC# said:

33 copies sold in 2021 at avg of 3500.   Only 5 of 33 at 4k and up and the other 4 mostly around 4200.   So an outlier I would say 

Yes, athough the $4,990 result would appear to be an bit of an outlier, your September results still inidcates a significant drop of some 60% from the 2021 average of $3,500.  

Then again,although it's really a case of to each their own, but why would anybody pay almost $5K for a book that already in 2021 had an average of some 350 graded copies in CGC 9.8 with another 700 graded copies in CGC 9.6 knocking right on its door.  No doubt that fact that the census had exploded to 460 copies in CGC 9.8 by September 2023 with another now almost a thousand copies in CGC 9.6 might have also had an impact on the drop in prices.  Let alone that all movie related hyped books as history has shown us time and time again without any real exceptions, that prices will always ten d to drop after the event has occurred.  

Edited October 5, 2023 by lou_fine

[KCOComics]

On 10/4/2023 at 10:56 AM, DC# said:

All observational but declines do seem to be accelerating in the past 4-6 weeks.    Will be interesting to watch ASM #300 9.8 to see if it can establish a floor at the $3k level.   The full year average in 2019 for this book was right at $2k.     I think these consistently popular books are good barometers for level of market engagement from buyers.    

 

 I think part of what we are seeing is return to normalcy after years of abnormal behavior.

Prior to Covid we would typically see sales decline / go stagnet in the fall / winter. 

Then in the spring you start to see everything pick up. 

 

[captainzombie]

On 10/4/2023 at 7:59 PM, Poekaymon said:

Just to add a little perspective, this is definitely not true for the big ticket copper keys I got in 2019, most of which are still up 2-3x. 

 

On 10/4/2023 at 9:03 PM, Telegan said:

A lot of comics or specific grades of specific comics have corrected back to pre-2019 levels.  There's always the overshoot of prices.  How do you know if the prices overshot on the downside?  Wait another 10 years and look back. lol.

 

I think Swag's "indexes" are just a suggestion to go by for those comics.  Not every comic is in the index, and just like in stocks and stock indexes, just because the index goes down doesn't mean you stay away from any individual comic or comics in the index.  This is made even more complicated by the grades within a comic within an index that all react differently.

You guys do make some very solid points here.

[mycomicshop]

On 9/24/2023 at 1:14 AM, lou_fine said:

I don't believe any of the Big 3 regular comic book auction houses charge any kind of handling fee at all to send your books in grading.  

My understanding is:

ComicLink does charge per book handling fees for sending books to grading, although I'm sure there are various agreements offered to specific consignors depending on the nature and quantity of what's involved.

Heritage may not charge per book handling fees for grading submission, but their seller and buyer fees add up to 30%+ whereas ours are generally 8-10% (our 3% BP is easily avoidable) so don't see how that's a plus. I could easily absorb the cost of sending books to CGC free of charge if we charged as much as Heritage does.

Don't know specifics at ComicConnect.

 

If you give any of us several long boxes of high grade bronze and modern books you want to get graded, nobody's going to eat that cost (handling, shipping to CGC and back from CGC, CGC invoice fees, etc). It will either be an explicit charge per book, or if there's no charge it's likely because you're paying more to the auction house in seller commission/buyer's premium.

[bluehorseshoe]

On 10/4/2023 at 12:12 PM, EastEnd1 said:

ASM #238 isn't a modern and has been a key for a very long time.  I'm talking about the hordes of common moderns that were being submitted by the hundreds to CGC and clogging up the grading works in recent years.  Many that previously sold for $100+ now seem to sell for less than $40... not such a viable business anymore.  

On a long enough timeline, was it ever going to be?

[Pantodude]

Some info is better than no info, so I'm not knocking the vid.  Just trying put the referenced vid in perspective. Isn't that Swag "comic book index" video above supposed to track the most recent GPA sale of the top 100 SOLD (by volume) books in each of the SA, BA and CA?  It's a bit silly that the video does not identify the 100 books relied upon for the graphs, but we can figure out what's NOT included.  Unless I am misinterpeting his model, his data cannot possibly track most, if any, of what collectors/dealers/buyers tradionally consider the top 50 or top 100 books in the SA. 

Because the top books of the SA are typically the early SA keys, they are significantly less common than mid- to late-SA books and thus unlikely to make Swag's cut, which is based on highest volume of sales.  ASM#73 sells more often than IH#1, for example.  They are also more expensive than non-key and/or later SA books, so Swag can't possibly have included them in what he refers to top-100 sold for the SA.  Swag's version of top 100 SA books totaled  $46,500 for ALL 100 books.  That's just one low-mid grade AF15,  or one mid-grade IH#1 or FF#1, so we know he can't be talking about THOSE books or anything close to those, like XM1, TOS39, FF5, etc.  The big SA keys have seen better days, but this vid is not using their data.  That said, the vid is informative, in the right context.  

 

Edited October 5, 2023 by Pantodude

[jjonahjameson11]

On 10/5/2023 at 12:39 AM, lou_fine said:

The problem I see with your examples here is that every single one of them is for a book in CGC 9.8 grade which is not where the true collector's real marketplace for comic books is. 

Personally, I believe this top end condition niche of the marketplace is really where the speculators and flippers hang out, and as such is a much more volatile subset of the overall comic book marketplace and tend to overshoot on both extremes.  A better measure of the health of the overall comic book marketplace is to probably compare prices a few condition grades lower than your nosebleed 9.8 grades.  

I find your remarks offensive.

these are books I collect and 9.8 is the grade I prefer for these books.  I am no speculator or flipper. I have at least a dozen of each of these books because I grew up reading ASM and I like these books.

Furthermore, if you want to measure the health of the overall comic book marketplace, go ahead and spend your own time to do it.