Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[DC#]

On 10/31/2023 at 11:04 AM, darkstar said:

Ghost Rider has been targeted as potentially being used in the MCU more times over the past decade than just about every other character. That includes the rumored return of Cage to the role, the creation of Robbie Reyes, Reyes appearing on Agents of Shield, the creation of Cosmic Ghost Rider, the rumor that Mephisto was in Doctor Strange 2, plus the MCU using either the Midnight Sons or the Legion of Monsters having already used, or in the process of using, Blade, Morbius, Man Thing, Werewolf by Night, etc. 

 

This may be more semantics on my part - but when I said not the same movie/TV hype I was referencing an actual announced project like FF that drives the belief that Dr Doom is going to show up (not a stretch to think that is possible).    I personally never considered the GR rumors to be at the same level - especially when Marvel slate of projects for next 3-5 years are announced/updated yearly around SDCC and/or D23 Expo.    Mephisto is another example of where everyone got excited for a pretty short frame of time based on no real information.    

My view of speculators has always been more that they are relatively quick in and quick out (which may be way too generic to be accurate).    I don't perceive that most speculators (if that is who drove up the price on many of the rumor books) want to buy and hold on a book that may not hit the movie peak for years and years.   FF is going to take 5 years from announcement to launch acknowledging that SAG and WGA strikes could be impacting that a bit.     If you bought MS #5 in 2021 on spec - you might not see an actual GR series/movie until 2028/9 at this point.   

All of that to say - I was questioning if there was something different about Ghost Rider and his popularity that might mean the rise in value of MS #5 indicates a new elevated plateau.    I think Miles Morales is an example where increased popularity (granted this was supported by movies) has created a new elevated plateau where UF#4 falling back to 2017/18 prices when a 9.8 was a $300 book seems less likely.  

[The humble Watcher lurking]

On 10/31/2023 at 9:21 AM, Key Largo Comics said:

I'm no market expert but it looks like maybe we are reaching the "capitulation" phase?

People who were holding out in hopes of a market turnaround are now giving up and dumping out of fear of losing everything.

I wonder if the Marvel Cinematic Universe being so lackluster the last few years is having an effect? MCU drove most of the comic book speculation in the last decade. MCU seems to have gone from must-see to meh. 

The latest news that the two most anticipated Marvel projects for 2024 the Daredevil TV show and Deadpool 3 are both being pushed to 2025 due to the Actor`s strike is certainly not good news.

Edited October 31, 2023 by The humble Watcher lurking

[VintageComics]

Doesn't everything dip around this time of year?

School's back in, winter is here, con season is over, Christmas is coming. 

I don't think what's happening in the comic market is related to comics. I think it's related to economic forces and THOSE are affecting EVERYTHING.

Not just comics. 

If wars continue to wage for silly, manufactured reasons (which is what I personally believe this all is) the common people will all suffer while the wealthy just get more wealthy. Rinse, repeat. 

[Robot Man]

On 10/31/2023 at 3:11 PM, VintageComics said:

Doesn't everything dip around this time of year?

School's back in, winter is here, con season is over, Christmas is coming. 

I don't think what's happening in the comic market is related to comics. I think it's related to economic forces and THOSE are affecting EVERYTHING.

Not just comics. 

If wars continue to wage for silly, manufactured reasons (which is what I personally believe this all is) the common people will all suffer while the wealthy just get more wealthy. Rinse, repeat. 

Exactly what I said one page back without elaboration and introducing politics which have nothing to do with the comic market…

[VintageComics]

On 10/31/2023 at 6:44 PM, Robot Man said:

Exactly what I said one page back without elaboration and introducing politics which have nothing to do with the comic market…

What are you going on about? There's no politics in that post. 

[Telegan]

On 10/30/2023 at 2:45 PM, StingerMcK said:

That's a lot of red.  I think the question has been answered

Only if you look at it from a Silver Age to Moderns point of view.  A ton of Golden Age/PCH stuff is still strong and getting high bids, although I do see some weakness sometimes.  It's really weird how there are times I'd say "seriously? who is still bidding this thing up?" and other times I'd say "heck yeah, I'll take it for that." lol.  But generally, there's strong bidding in most GA issues I've been looking at lately.  I don't know how long that will last, but with the rarity in some of those comics, there's a built-in cushion ... sorta.  I still expect corrections of some sort, though.

[drotto]

On 10/31/2023 at 7:14 PM, Telegan said:

Only if you look at it from a Silver Age to Moderns point of view.  A ton of Golden Age/PCH stuff is still strong and getting high bids, although I do see some weakness sometimes.  It's really weird how there are times I'd say "seriously? who is still bidding this thing up?" and other times I'd say "heck yeah, I'll take it for that." lol.  But generally, there's strong bidding in most GA issues I've been looking at lately.  I don't know how long that will last, but with the rarity in some of those comics, there's a built-in cushion ... sorta.  I still expect corrections of some sort, though.

Feels like some of the Silver Massive keys like Amazing Fantasy 15, Hulk 1, and Fantastic Four 1 have bottomed out and may be creeping up again.

Edited November 1, 2023 by drotto

[VintageComics]

On 10/31/2023 at 7:14 PM, Telegan said:

Only if you look at it from a Silver Age to Moderns point of view.  A ton of Golden Age/PCH stuff is still strong and getting high bids, although I do see some weakness sometimes.  It's really weird how there are times I'd say "seriously? who is still bidding this thing up?" and other times I'd say "heck yeah, I'll take it for that." lol.  But generally, there's strong bidding in most GA issues I've been looking at lately.  I don't know how long that will last, but with the rarity in some of those comics, there's a built-in cushion ... sorta.  I still expect corrections of some sort, though.

Even within SA there are actually books still going up. 

High quality books in top grades (let's say 60's and 70's books in 9.8, well centered, good pages) are STILL selling for record numbers. 

 

Edited November 1, 2023 by VintageComics

[Nick Furious]

On 10/30/2023 at 9:53 PM, DC# said:

But there are some books that hard to determine if there will be a new floor.   For example, I have passively looked at acquiring Marvel Spotlight #5.   Go back to 2017/18 and a 9.4 was trading in the $3k-$4k range.    The low this year is still $15k with a 12-mos average around $17k.    Even 2019/20 was in the $6k range.     And the growth was not driven by the same level of movie/show hype that has driven other books.  So is the new floor on this one somewhere between $12k and $15k?   Or is it likely that this book will too slip down to somewhere below $10k?   

I think if you are looking for a new "worst case" floor (in US dollars), you would at least have to account for the devaluation of the dollar during that timeframe.  I typically add about 30% to 2019 prices for my expected minimums.  Then there is the real possibility of latent demand remaining from the bubble prices.  Many people did not buy these books in the bubble but became much more aware of them and added them to their interest list.  I would imagine that at 2019 prices plus inflation there would be many more buyers today than in 2019.  It's a book-by-book thing, but I would add another 10%-20% for increased awareness.  This makes 50% above 2019 prices a worst-case scenario in my opinion for many of the "key" books.  Just spit-balling round numbers based on a few thoughts that may or may not hold up.   

Edited November 1, 2023 by Nick Furious

[VintageComics]

On 10/31/2023 at 10:14 PM, Nick Furious said:

This makes 50% above 2019 prices a worst-case scenario in my opinion for many of the "key" books.  Just spit-balling round numbers based on a few thoughts that may or may not hold up. 

That is roughly where my gut has been for the past year.

50% above 2019 seems to be around the right sort of area that MOST trends backed off to in the past when they corrected. AF #15 in 2017 did that. The book exploded and pulled back but it never went to where it was before.

In fact, someone with some statistical skills should actually do a study on that book because it's sort of a leading indicator of most things.

It's EXTREMELY popular so you don't have exposure issues. 

It's EXTREMELY common so you don't have supply issues. 

It's EXTREMLY sought after so you don't have demand issues. 

It has a wide range of affordability so you don't have that issue (do you want a $10K copy or a $3MIL copy?) 

It may make a great study. 

 

Edited November 1, 2023 by VintageComics

[Telegan]

On 10/31/2023 at 8:22 PM, drotto said:

Feels like some of the Silver Massive keys like Amazing Fantasy 15, Hulk 1, and Fantastic Four 1 have bottomed out and may be creeping up again.

That could be true.  I generally don't go after "keys" in the Silver Age and after (although I may soon, who knows) - I just collect stuff that I wanted as or remember from when I was a kid.  So, for example, I really don't care if I have an AF #15 or not, but I may want an FF #1 or some of the issues below the 20's "just because".

[jimjum12]

On 11/1/2023 at 12:17 AM, Telegan said:

That could be true.  I generally don't go after "keys" in the Silver Age and after (although I may soon, who knows) - I just collect stuff that I wanted as or remember from when I was a kid.  So, for example, I really don't care if I have an AF #15 or not, but I may want an FF #1 or some of the issues below the 20's "just because".

Kind of what they refer to as a type set collector in coins, and there are a lot of those kind of collectors. I personally don't own any of the top keys, I was priced out a decade or more back, and just stopped replacing them. I always like to have some books, though. GOD BLESS.... 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

[Hamlet]

On 10/31/2023 at 9:14 PM, Nick Furious said:

I think if you are looking for a new "worst case" floor (in US dollars), you would at least have to account for the devaluation of the dollar during that timeframe.  I typically add about 30% to 2019 prices for my expected minimums.  Then there is the real possibility of latent demand remaining from the bubble prices.  Many people did not buy these books in the bubble but became much more aware of them and added them to their interest list.  I would imagine that at 2019 prices plus inflation there would be many more buyers today than in 2019.  It's a book-by-book thing, but I would add another 10%-20% for increased awareness.  This makes 50% above 2019 prices a worst-case scenario in my opinion for many of the "key" books.  Just spit-balling round numbers based on a few thoughts that may or may not hold up.   

I think you’re describing more of a base case than a “worst case”.  Comics have been in a strong bull market pretty much since the first Iron Man movie came out.  People got used to prices always going up.  That price action pulls in a ton of speculators and a ton of people that are just FOMO types.  That dynamic is reversing now.  We don’t really know how many of those people actually have a long term interest in collecting comics that don’t necessarily go up most years.

I think it is pretty clear that interest in the Marvel movies peaked with Endgame, and it isn’t likely to ever return to that level again.  I’m a comic book guy, and I’m pretty tired of comic book movies and shows.  It doesn’t take a large drop in marginal demand for it to have a big impact on prices.

That said, I’m starting to buy at least a few non-dollar book items again.  Prices have dropped enough that I’m interested in buying the cheaper stuff I’m missing.  

[alexgross.com]

On 10/31/2023 at 7:48 AM, Robot Man said:

Yes, prices on a lot of stuff has dropped. Sadly. Not on what I collect.

But, what I have seen and heard from comic dealers is that people are being a lot more selective as to what they buy.

This is a major reason why prices are dropping. Dealers are having to get real and dropping their prices to move books. Smart buyers with cash hold all the cards.

This year is almost over. This is also the time of year when collectible sales drop off. Will be interesting to see what 2024 brings…

yes. people are way more selective now. i certainly am. this is a result of an unstable economy, huge interest rate increases, global events, and the erratic stock market. no one i know, except one very wealthy person, is buying tons of comics now, or any other luxury items. 

agree that holiday time is always the slow time. the bigger question is why would things turn around come spring, if these underlying economic issues have not brightened by then. people who can neither sell nor by a home right now, thanks to fed interest rate policy, are probably not buying comics.

i loathe the gloom and doom panicky types always predicting a comics crash here on the boards. thats not me, and i beleive that the core comic collecting base is a very solid one. it will turn around at some point. but i cannot see why that would be next year, unfortunately, though i very much hope that it will be.

[The humble Watcher lurking]

On 10/31/2023 at 9:22 PM, drotto said:

Feels like some of the Silver Massive keys like Amazing Fantasy 15, Hulk 1, and Fantastic Four 1 have bottomed out and may be creeping up again.

One thing though with Silver Age keys is what like only 20 or maybe less? I don't know if that correlates with "A rising tide lifts all boats".

The one comic book I am following is X-Men #1 CGC 4.0 as it was going for $4000 pre-pandemic, now it`s like FMV $14,000. It will be interesting to see if it can hold that price with the X-Men movie at least 3-5 years away. 

Edited November 1, 2023 by The humble Watcher lurking
spelling

[1Cool]

On 11/1/2023 at 12:24 PM, The humble Watcher lurking said:

One thing though with Silver Age keys is what like only 20 or maybe less? I don't know if that correlates with "A rising tide lifts all boats".

The one comic book I am following is X-Men #1 CGC 4.0 as it was going for $4000 pre-pandemic, now it`s like FMV $14,000. It will be interesting to see if it can hold that price with the X-Men movie at least 3-5 years away. 

Based on the ComicLink data I'd say a CGC 4.0 would be more in the $9K range but I don't think it's a quick sale at that price point.  Not sure if we will see $4K (undervalued back then in my opinion) but I'd not be shocked to see it drop back into the $7 - $8K range next year.

[MatterEaterLad]

On 10/31/2023 at 7:49 PM, VintageComics said:

High quality books in top grades (let's say 60's and 70's books in 9.8, well centered, good pages) are STILL selling for record numbers. 

I do worry that we'll eventually hit a peak, where an overwhelming number of older collectors sell/retire/die with no one to replace them.

As the market accumulates too many books without enough buyers, mid-grade SA flattens out for decades (or only matches inflation) while mega keys and ultra high-grade SA books skyrocket. 

[drotto]

On 11/1/2023 at 12:24 PM, The humble Watcher lurking said:

One thing though with Silver Age keys is what like only 20 or maybe less? I don't know if that correlates with "A rising tide lifts all boats".

The one comic book I am following is X-Men #1 CGC 4.0 as it was going for $4000 pre-pandemic, now it`s like FMV $14,000. It will be interesting to see if it can hold that price with the X-Men movie at least 3-5 years away. 

Yeah there are the 3 Silver Mega Keys, which have fallen back but will always have strong value, and then things like X-Men which I kinda put as 1B titles.  I bought a X-Men 1 4.5 about 5 years ago for $3600.  It peaked about 18k in 2021, and is around 11k now on a good day.

 

I think those titles are just going to sit about there for at least the next 2 or 3 years, then start to rebound. 

[Motor City Rob]

On 10/31/2023 at 9:22 PM, drotto said:

Feels like some of the Silver Massive keys like Amazing Fantasy 15, Hulk 1, and Fantastic Four 1 have bottomed out and may be creeping up again.

I am not seeing that. I know GPA doesn't include all sources, but AF15 and Hulk 1 had most of their October sales that were lower than previous sale, and in some cases lowest since 2020. FF1 seemed to have a decent October in sold grades, but I would not say it already hit bottom. 

[VintageComics]

On 11/1/2023 at 12:49 PM, MatterEaterLad said:

I do worry that we'll eventually hit a peak, where an overwhelming number of older collectors sell/retire/die with no one to replace them.

As the market accumulates too many books without enough buyers, mid-grade SA flattens out for decades (or only matches inflation) while mega keys and ultra high-grade SA books skyrocket. 

At SOME point EVERYTHING has to peak. 

But without sounding condescending, we have been having this convo for 20 years and this has been the point made by everyone who believes we're headed for a correction.

It was said in 2004 when prising were rising so fast nobody could keep up, it was said in 2008 when the stock market collapsed, it was said in 2010 when you joined and multiple Pedigrees were found (Billy Wright, Twin Cities and I can't remember which others but there were at least 3), it was said when AF #15 double and tripled in price in 2017 and again in 2021. 

I believe on a macro level that the $$ that can be spent on comics AND the number of people who will want comics are both expanding. In the last 20 years we've created more money than in the history of civilization (OK, that may or may not be true but you know what I mean) and that wealth continues to expand looking for things to buy. 

Plus, not only has the population expanded but the collecting base within the population expanded as comics and movies spread to other countries where they had never been.

Part of the explosion in prices in 2010 / 2021 were people WITH MONEY getting into comics that had never been in comics previously.

At this point, comics are no longer a niche market. They're worldwide, they have the attention of investors worldwide and these investors have more money than they know what to do with. 

Everyone wanted to get rich off their collections. 

Well, you got what you wanted. It's a double edged sword. Now you need to pay more too.