Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 41 41

[Microchip]

On 8/30/2024 at 10:09 AM, Stefan_W said:

The early ASMs I was hunting for in the CL auction are already sitting over current market value. Looks like I will be sitting on my hands again tonight. 

 

On 8/30/2024 at 12:42 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Everything I bid on goes for way over "FMV."

 

Ditto x2.

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 8/30/2024 at 12:27 AM, batmiesta said:

Same here, nothing soft about this price. 

AMAZING SPIDER-MAN #100, CGC 9.6 NM+, CVA Exceptional The Auction Has Ended 1971, Anniversary issue; Classic Romita cover

Current Bid: $2,376 Number Of Bids: 34  Add to WantList  [Sell One Of These]

Yeah what maniac won that book?

[justafan]

On 8/29/2024 at 8:09 PM, Stefan_W said:

The early ASMs I was hunting for in the CL auction are already sitting over current market value. Looks like I will be sitting on my hands again tonight. 

 

On 8/29/2024 at 10:42 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Everything I bid on goes for way over "FMV."

 

On 8/30/2024 at 12:52 AM, Microchip said:

 

 

Ditto x2.

Well that's because at least 2 bidders had a much higher Personal Market Value (PMV) for those books.  PMV is really what 2 or more people at a point in time consider it to be worth it to them.  Once that is satisfied, the very next auction for a similar item might be totally different.  Maybe underbidder 1 and underbidder 2 stick with their original slightly inflated PMV resulting in a lower but above GPA winning bid, maybe they drop it back down to GPA's FMV and it goes to whoever bid GPA first, maybe they miss the next auction and it goes for under GPA, or maybe feeling burned wishing they hadn't let it get away from them and adopt the winning bidder's PMV and drive up the price further thereby setting a new FMV trend. 

Since comiclink doesn't report to GPA, its possible true FMV isn't what we think it is or a few people out there just have a higher market valuation (and disposable income) on these than the rest of us.

 

[Telegan]

On 8/29/2024 at 7:09 PM, Stefan_W said:

The early ASMs I was hunting for in the CL auction are already sitting over current market value. Looks like I will be sitting on my hands again tonight. 

I think I bid on 3 (?) comics in the CL auction and got all 3.  Surprisingly a couple were GA and one Avengers.  Admittedly, they weren't "key" or anything, but either my sniping techniques are improving or I'm buying some unwanted comics.   I think everything except maybe the most popular comics have their day when you get lucky and get under FMV.

Heritage Golden Age auctions are almost a guaranteed no-win because stuff goes over FMV for me.

 

On 8/29/2024 at 9:42 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Everything I bid on goes for way over "FMV."

 

This, including the the shrugging guy, will be on my tombstone.  Thanks!

[LordRahl]

On 8/30/2024 at 12:25 PM, justafan said:

 

 

Well that's because at least 2 bidders had a much higher Personal Market Value (PMV) for those books.  PMV is really what 2 or more people at a point in time consider it to be worth it to them.  Once that is satisfied, the very next auction for a similar item might be totally different.  Maybe underbidder 1 and underbidder 2 stick with their original slightly inflated PMV resulting in a lower but above GPA winning bid, maybe they drop it back down to GPA's FMV and it goes to whoever bid GPA first, maybe they miss the next auction and it goes for under GPA, or maybe feeling burned wishing they hadn't let it get away from them and adopt the winning bidder's PMV and drive up the price further thereby setting a new FMV trend. 

Since comiclink doesn't report to GPA, its possible true FMV isn't what we think it is or a few people out there just have a higher market valuation (and disposable income) on these than the rest of us.

 

FMV is a myth. It does not exist. If you think I'm wrong, please tell me the FMV of a FF 48 in 9.2 and X Men 101 in 9.8 (totally random picks that I know sell relatively frequently).

[batmiesta]

On 8/30/2024 at 8:25 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Yeah what maniac won that book?

Hang on a minute, you already have a 9.6 , don't you? 

[Sweet Lou 14]

In all seriousness, while I understand the sentiment that "FMV is a myth" and also fully understand that two motivated people are all it takes to set the hammer price in an auction, the ASM #100 cited above is a good example of what I'm experiencing.

Here is the 9.6 WP copy of ASM #100 that I won for $1,800 on ComicConnect in January 2023:

It's a beautiful copy.  So nice it even has ComiConnect's version of the extra special sticker on it (QES).

ASM #100 is notorious for centering issues, some uglier than others.  I decided to buy this book because the white along the spine wasn't too thick and it's also close to even.  To that point, it was the best-centered 9.6 I'd had the opportunity to bid on.

What's the FMV for this book?  GoCollect says $1,700, while citing recent 9.6 sales that range from $1,052 to $2,133.  There are plenty of 9.6s of this book being traded.  It's not the sales volume of, say, ASM #300, but it's a common book and very easy to find.  So an FMV of $1,700+ certainly seems about right, and I'm OK with having spent $1,800 on mine.  I know my style of collecting is not the way to go if you want to get bargains.  This is the life I have chosen.

So now this one comes around on ComicLink:

Another great copy!  Plus it has ComicLink's version of the extra special sticker -- the highly coveted CVA!  The centering is not absolutely perfect, but it's as close to perfect as you're ever likely going to find.  The only thing I'm not crazy about is the older CGC case.  But I can live with that.  I had been hoping for better centering and decided to go after this book.

When I show up to place my last-second bid, the bidding was already at $1,700.  Damn, that means I'm probably going to have to go over $2,000 for this book.  I generally have a good instinct for what it's going to take to win, so I shot my shot and I came out on top.  $2,376 smackeroos, almost right up to what I bid.  One of those "damn, I'm glad I won but I wasn't really expecting to win for anywhere near that crazy high bid I put in" moments ... I get those a lot.

So what's the lesson?  Either the $1,800 - $2,376 spread is just part of the random noise in the market, and I got unlucky that someone aggressive was bidding on this one whereas I'd been more lucky the previous time, or there really is a $576 difference (nearly 33%) in value for the better centering.  Or ComicLink has more eyeballs than ComicConnect.  Who knows.  But now my goal is to sell the other 9.6 and hope to close that spread a little bit so that the premium I've paid is a little less steep.

I had another example this week (won't go into detail) where I snagged an arguably underpriced 9.6 OW/W copy of a book earlier this month, then paid a hefty premium for a nice 9.6 WP copy.  Again, it could be random chance or luck or a genuine market difference for the white pages.  But again, I'll be trying to get a good price for my OW/W copy and hoping I'm right that I did in fact score a bargain on it.

[Telegan]

Also, I'd like to add the concept of "FMV" to me isn't necessarily "what it last sold for as shown on GPA".  Since some of these comics really don't trade hands a ton, those prices can sometimes seem arbitrary.  Then you have the oddball cases where maybe a 7.5 sells $1000 shortly after maybe an 8.0 sold for $800.  Why?  I don't know.  Assuming the comic isn't rare, maybe somebody just wanted it and be done with it. lol.  In scenarios like that and others my "FMV" would be different.  I'd probably not pay up to $1000 for a 7.5 if an 8.0 just sold for $800.  My "FMV" for that 7.5 would definitely be less than $800.  Others may pay $900.  While still others may say "let's wait a few more sales to see if this settles down".  The latter is what I've been doing on tons of Silver Age comics since the stuff I'm looking for isn't really rare and can be had somewhat easily (the "don't try to catch a falling knife" approach to comics, I suppose).

Other times my "FMV" will be "around whatever it's been selling for in that grade +/- 5-10%".  It all depends, I guess.

[MAY1979]

On 8/30/2024 at 5:16 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

In all seriousness, while I understand the sentiment that "FMV is a myth" and also fully understand that two motivated people are all it takes to set the hammer price in an auction, the ASM #100 cited above is a good example of what I'm experiencing.

Here is the 9.6 WP copy of ASM #100 that I won for $1,800 on ComicConnect in January 2023:

It's a beautiful copy.  So nice it even has ComiConnect's version of the extra special sticker on it (QES).

ASM #100 is notorious for centering issues, some uglier than others.  I decided to buy this book because the white along the spine wasn't too thick and it's also close to even.  To that point, it was the best-centered 9.6 I'd had the opportunity to bid on.

What's the FMV for this book?  GoCollect says $1,700, while citing recent 9.6 sales that range from $1,052 to $2,133.  There are plenty of 9.6s of this book being traded.  It's not the sales volume of, say, ASM #300, but it's a common book and very easy to find.  So an FMV of $1,700+ certainly seems about right, and I'm OK with having spent $1,800 on mine.  I know my style of collecting is not the way to go if you want to get bargains.  This is the life I have chosen.

So now this one comes around on ComicLink:

Another great copy!  Plus it has ComicLink's version of the extra special sticker -- the highly coveted CVA!  The centering is not absolutely perfect, but it's as close to perfect as you're ever likely going to find.  The only thing I'm not crazy about is the older CGC case.  But I can live with that.  I had been hoping for better centering and decided to go after this book.

When I show up to place my last-second bid, the bidding was already at $1,700.  Damn, that means I'm probably going to have to go over $2,000 for this book.  I generally have a good instinct for what it's going to take to win, so I shot my shot and I came out on top.  $2,376 smackeroos, almost right up to what I bid.  One of those "damn, I'm glad I won but I wasn't really expecting to win for anywhere near that crazy high bid I put in" moments ... I get those a lot.

So what's the lesson?  Either the $1,800 - $2,376 spread is just part of the random noise in the market, and I got unlucky that someone aggressive was bidding on this one whereas I'd been more lucky the previous time, or there really is a $576 difference (nearly 33%) in value for the better centering.  Or ComicLink has more eyeballs than ComicConnect.  Who knows.  But now my goal is to sell the other 9.6 and hope to close that spread a little bit so that the premium I've paid is a little less steep.

I had another example this week (won't go into detail) where I snagged an arguably underpriced 9.6 OW/W copy of a book earlier this month, then paid a hefty premium for a nice 9.6 WP copy.  Again, it could be random chance or luck or a genuine market difference for the white pages.  But again, I'll be trying to get a good price for my OW/W copy and hoping I'm right that I did in fact score a bargain on it.

Not directed at you

I think the  folks who are smug about white pages and perfectly centered wraps in their posts on this forums over the years have in effect created a premium for those. Specifically on pre-1976 books.  It actually would have been in their own best interest to keep quiet!!!

[bc]

On 8/30/2024 at 5:32 PM, MAY1979 said:

Not directed at you

I think the  folks who are smug about white pages and perfectly centered wraps in their posts on this forums over the years have in effect created a premium for those. Specifically on pre-1976 books.  It actually would have been in their own best interest to keep quiet!!!

I understand you're joking, but I don't think it took a group of boardies to influence the pursuit of perfection in collecting something.

Now, they may have made others understand perfect wraps, PQ, centering, registration & other criteria - I think that happens naturally in any mature hobby.

-bc

 

[VintageComics]

On 8/30/2024 at 4:53 PM, LordRahl said:

FMV is a myth.

FMV is a range. 

[VintageComics]

On 8/30/2024 at 5:53 PM, bc said:

I don't think it took a group of boardies to influence the pursuit of perfection in collecting something.

Now, they may have made others understand perfect wraps, PQ, centering, registration & other criteria - I think that happens naturally in any mature hobby.

Board chatter has an effect on the community. 

20 years ago it didn't but it's now a central source of information and discussion, and what is spoken about here trickles out into the rest of the internet. 

Talk about centering and page quality here has filtered out into the internet. Fear sells more than good news, and people afraid of overpaying for an inferior quality have started shelling out more for better copies. You'd say that's always been the case in the hobby, but it's caused MASSIVE price swings within the same grade, which is not normal or logical behavior. 

I think the cheaper copies generally go too cheap and the more expensive copies go for too much (when both are in the same grade), and I think it's happening because social media tends to exaggerate what people are willing to pay for these subtle differences.

Edited August 30 by VintageComics

[LordRahl]

On 8/30/2024 at 3:41 PM, VintageComics said:

FMV is a range. 

Yes, it is, and a rather broad one at that. However I don't think people that post the words FMV think of it as a range otherwise they wouldn't be saying how something is selling at, below, or above FMV. 

[bc]

On 8/30/2024 at 6:48 PM, VintageComics said:

Board chatter has an effect on the community. 

20 years ago it didn't but it's now a central source of information and discussion, and what is spoken about here trickles out into the rest of the internet. 

Talk about centering and page quality here has filtered out into the internet. Fear sells more than good news, and people afraid of overpaying for an inferior quality have started shelling out more for better copies. You'd say that's always been the case in the hobby, but it's caused MASSIVE price swings within the same grade, which is not normal or logical behavior. 

I think the cheaper copies generally go too cheap and the more expensive copies go for too much (when both are in the same grade), and I think it's happening because social media tends to exaggerate what people are willing to pay for these subtle differences.

 Maybe it's just me, but even my 8 year old eye didn't grab the copy off the spinner rack that had a big white stripe down the left edge or a corner of the cover bent over versus a better looking copy.

I'll give you the boards do contribute to the overall community in some aspects.

With the introduction of grading, it was natural to start defining more granular criteria (some pulled from other collectibles) to garner the best book at the right price.

-bc

 

[VintageComics]

On 8/30/2024 at 6:55 PM, LordRahl said:

I don't think people that post the words FMV think of it as a range otherwise they wouldn't be saying how something is selling at, below, or above FMV. 

That's custom title material, right there.

But yeah, it's a range not a specific price. 

I'm not sure how broad it should be, but it shouldn't be more than the previous lower, and following higher grades, so that puts limitations on the range. 

When looking at things like GPA, I use the 90 day or 12 month averages, usually, unless there's a lot of variability like there has been since 2021. 

[DC#]

Huh?   This has been a $1200 book for three years - and this one has a bad wrap AND OW pages.   

[VintageComics]

On 8/30/2024 at 6:59 PM, bc said:

but even my 8 year old eye didn't grab the copy off the spinner rack that had a big white stripe down the left edge or a corner of the cover bent over versus a better looking copy.

Everyone is different. I grew up buying bronze age off the rack and the white stripe never crossed my mind. I just cared about how new and sharp the book looked.

I didn't really start paying attention until people started talking about it on here (it was Beyonder's QP / Quality of Production discussions that made me aware that others were paying attention to it).

And I think from there, it eventually scared off bidders / buyers who then got it into their heads that they didn't want to pay as much for inferior copies. 

The mind worm is a real thing and once it gets in, it eats away at people. 

I could be wrong, but I just don't think you had the the same price swings 20 years ago on QP that you have today. 

[bc]

On 8/30/2024 at 7:04 PM, VintageComics said:

Everyone is different. I grew up buying bronze age off the rack and the white stripe never crossed my mind. I just cared about how new and sharp the book looked.

I didn't really start paying attention until people started talking about it on here (it was Beyonder's QP / Quality of Production discussions that made me aware that others were paying attention to it).

And I think from there, it eventually scared off bidders / buyers who then got it into their heads that they didn't want to pay as much for inferior copies. 

The mind worm is a real thing and once it gets in, it eats away at people. 

I could be wrong, but I just don't think you had the the same price swings 20 years ago on QP that you have today. 

 Agree with most of this.

Did it "scare off bidders" or "inform bidders" once the slabbed copy population increased to the point where secondary criteria (like PQ) start to become important. Early on - it was mainly the number in the corner of the slab to the majority of the community due to the low census counts (although some discerning collectors sought the most perfect secondary criteria as well). Now that we are 20+ years and millions of books into this, it's natural that the secondary criteria further influence the FMV as prices increase.

But I'm a guy who is fine with a nice OW/W 8.5....

-bc

[VintageComics]

On 8/30/2024 at 7:19 PM, bc said:

 Agree with most of this.

Did it "scare off bidders" or "inform bidders" once the slabbed copy population increased to the point where secondary criteria (like PQ) start to become important. Early on - it was mainly the number in the corner of the slab to the majority of the community due to the low census counts (although some discerning collectors sought the most perfect secondary criteria as well). Now that we are 20+ years and millions of books into this, it's natural that the secondary criteria further influence the FMV as prices increase.

I too see it as a natural progression, as collector's OCD transforms into dollars spent. 

But I think the range is exaggerate. I can see a 10% range, but not a 30% range which is sometimes what we see. That's just illogical to me. 

You're right, though in that it's affect the price in both directions. I think the internet caused big bidders to bid too much on the high side and some bidders to avoid bidding on the low side. 

[Poekaymon]

I came really close to taking a stab at this a couple nights ago but didn't.  Entered my bid and watched the timer tick down because I just couldn't do it.  Anyway, I think that's back to around 2020 prices.  Still a bit salty that I passed on one for 20k right when I came back to collecting in 2018, but at the time it was at an all-time high by a wide margin and was hard to believe it'd keep going up.