Post your Promise Collection wins! 17 17

[MasterChief]

On 9/17/2022 at 2:54 PM, tth2 said:

Thanks for putting the list together!  

Assuming you put this together with a spreadsheet, could you put in totals at the bottom?  I'm too lazy to manually total them up.

Flash 88 and All-Flash 32--yikes!

Sure. Here ya go...

[jimbo_7071]

On 9/12/2022 at 8:23 AM, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

Heritage is stepping up their competition with the other auction houses. It started with the Promise collection, but now it looks like it’s the new norm. No more sellers commission if you or your heirs send your Heritage winnings back thru Heritage when we go to the great LCS in the sky.

I just got this from yesterday’s auction

 

 

 

This is off topic, but what books are getting split into individual pages? Are they books that were missing more than just the cover? I would think that even a coverless but otherwise complete Cap 1 would be worth more than the pages sold individually. (Of course, I could be wrong.)

And what if a page has an advertisement on the front of the page but artwork on the back? Will CGC turn it around so that the artwork is facing forward in the case?

These are the kinds of deep questions that I ponder in my quiet moments.

[Cat-Man_America]

On 9/17/2022 at 5:54 PM, MasterChief said:

The current ROI snapshot does not look promising for the collection.

While time will provide more data, and investment realization may change, the spreadsheet below paints an overall picture of the irrational exuberance that drove Promise prices higher than they fundamentally justified. (Source: Heritage Auctions. Data sorted by oldest to newest purchase date)

This is a very good picture of Promise resales that allows for some interpretation.  

High grade copies that dropped the most percentage-wise with big dollar loss were DC titles like later issues of Flash, All-Flash and Batman.  Most titles that took a hit were mid-grade titles that probably have higher grade examples (this makes sense especially with the "gild being off the lily" on Promise Collection books). The increase in iconic mid-grade books like Plastic Man (nn) and 'Tec 108 are noteworthy. Also worth noting are iconic books that rarely show up in grade like Seven Seas #5.   Break-evens and small losses (0-10%) percentage-wise in consideration of market volatility given the current economic climate isn't surprising. Trying to flip books within two years of acquisition is always fraught with risk, even more so when it looks like desperation.

Looking at this objectively while taking stock of my personal collecting habits, what's notable is what's missing.  No one appears to be in any hurry to flip Promise Collection copies of Continental/Holyoke's Cat-Man, Timelys and most high or highest graded keys from any publisher.  Some of the decisions to flip certain books along with the losses incurred ...given these circumstances... are totally understandable.  

As market corrections go the crystal ball is still hazy.  It depends a lot on the book, the perceived grade and where that particular book is in respect to long-term desirability and pecking order with other copies. 

[lou_fine]

On 9/17/2022 at 4:17 PM, RareHighGrade said:

Wow, out of 43 books, 33 went down and, in some cases, dropped massively.  If the sales commissions are taken into account, 37 of 43 went down and the devastation is far worse.

Yes, but are any of us here except for @Mmehdy really that surprised with these secondary sales results that we are seeing to date, considering the over and above market prices that were paid to acquire these books on the first go round.  In addition, trying to flip any books and make a profit in such a short turnaround time is usually never a winning combination and actually a pretty tough game to be playing.    

I actually thought the hit would have been much more substantial given the current macro economic conditions and the fact that prices on most collectibles have followed suit accordingly.  My bet is that if more of these Promise Collection books than just 43 of them had come back to the market so soon in the interim, the numbers would be even worse than what we are seeing here.  Especially since the owners of some of these over bought books clearly know by now that they had over paid for them in the first place and simply are not willing to take the hit if they are placed back into the marketplace at this current point in time.  

Like another boardie here had alluded to before, this collection is really a classic case of Over Promise and Under Deliver.    

Edited September 18, 2022 by lou_fine

[lou_fine]

On 9/17/2022 at 3:54 PM, MasterChief said:

The current ROI snapshot does not look promising for the collection.

While time will provide more data, and investment realization may change, the spreadsheet below paints an overall picture of the irrational exuberance that drove Promise prices higher than they fundamentally justified. (Source: Heritage Auctions. Data sorted by oldest to newest purchase date)

Hey Mitch;

Nothing less than the usual fantastic and top notch analytical work that we have come to expect from you.  Very well done!!!  

Only one thing that I noticed here in your chart.  Why only one column in there for the CGC grade or are you trying to imply that all of the grades for the 43 books in total remained unchanged from the first go round.  If this is the case, isn't this really rather surprising in this day and age of certification where most flippers are into playing the CPR game, that not even a single one of the resellers here dare even tried to play the game with these Promise books here.  

I really think that I need to go back to my dictionary and check up the meaning of words such as "independent", "unbiased", and "third party".  

[lou_fine]

On 9/17/2022 at 5:57 PM, tth2 said:

I was surprised that it wasn't 43 out of 43 went down, although I guess Seven Seas 5 turning a profit was not that much of a surprise. 

Bang on with the Promise copy of Seven Seas 5 because once I saw that one come back to market, I knew right off the bat it would sell for more. 

Then again, I guess it had a better shot than most since the Seven Seas 5 was front and centre for the promotion of the Matt Baker Auction.  

Edited September 18, 2022 by lou_fine

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

On 9/17/2022 at 9:31 PM, jimbo_7071 said:

This is off topic, but what books are getting split into individual pages? Are they books that were missing more than just the cover? I would think that even a coverless but otherwise complete Cap 1 would be worth more than the pages sold individually. (Of course, I could be wrong.)

And what if a page has an advertisement on the front of the page but artwork on the back? Will CGC turn it around so that the artwork is facing forward in the case?

These are the kinds of deep questions that I ponder in my quiet moments.

Hopefully it’s just destroyed books that are getting pieced out!

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

On 9/18/2022 at 12:26 AM, Cat-Man_America said:

 

Looking at this objectively while taking stock of my personal collecting habits, what's notable is what's missing.  No one appears to be in any hurry to flip Promise Collection copies of Continental/Holyoke's Cat-Man, Timelys and most high or highest graded keys from any publisher.  

There are plenty of Timelys and a few LB Coles I hope to see again some day, at 23% less.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 18, 2022 by GreatCaesarsGhost

[GermanFan]

On 9/18/2022 at 1:19 AM, szav said:

Thank you for the fantastic analysis.  Lost in this may be the macroeconomic influences that may somewhat unfairly tarnishing the books.  Zero interest rates and free money abounded when these first sold, and headlines of inflation, recession, soaring interest rates, and a crashing stock market dominate the news now.

Have these books fared worse than silver and bronze keys, or the DJIA?  Probably not.  I think we’ll get the real story 5 years out from actual recovery, and that real story may well be that the initial buyers grossly overpaid.  I just think any judgment right now is confounded by outside market forces.

What recovery? This is permanent.

[jimbo_7071]

On 9/18/2022 at 6:31 AM, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

Hopefully it’s just destroyed books that are getting pieced out!

Yes, I hope so!

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

On 9/18/2022 at 6:29 AM, GermanFan said:

What recovery? This is permanent.

[tth2]

On 9/18/2022 at 9:26 AM, MasterChief said:

Sure. Here ya go...

Double yikes!!!

[Funnybooks]

On 9/18/2022 at 3:10 AM, lou_fine said:

 

Like another boardie here had alluded to before, this collection is really a classic case of Over Promise and Under Deliver.    

*trademarked or is that *copyrighted?

 

[lou_fine]

On 9/18/2022 at 9:55 AM, Funnybooks said:

On 9/18/2022 at 12:10 AM, lou_fine said:

Like another boardie here had alluded to before, this collection is really a classic case of Over Promise and Under Deliver.    

*trademarked or is that *copyrighted?

That should actually be the tagline for the entire collection and go right in the centre of the CGC label itself under where it says "The Promise Collection".    

Edited September 18, 2022 by lou_fine

[MasterChief]

On 9/17/2022 at 9:33 PM, lou_fine said:

Only one thing that I noticed here in your chart.  Why only one column in there for the CGC grade or are you trying to imply that all of the grades for the 43 books in total remained unchanged from the first go round.  If this is the case, isn't this really rather surprising in this day and age of certification where most flippers are into playing the CPR game, that not even a single one of the resellers here dare even tried to play the game with these Promise books here.  

Yes, it is surprising. I found no upgrades. Books appear to be in the same state of original sale.

Historically, books that get relisted in a Heritage Auction in a relatively short period of time, typically 6-12 months, have gone through the post-auction manipulation process and are listed with new certification numbers and higher grades. That’s been the MO since Heritage Signature Auction #803 (July 4, 2002), which was the genesis of institutionalized manipulation. There wasn’t an auction like it beforehand, and Heritage auctions afterward that included recycled books followed a clearly observable pattern of acquisition, manipulation, recertification, and liquidation. There are mounds of data from countless auctions to validate the conclusion.

Another discovery that became apparent during the ROI research is the archived sales for Promise books that now state “Not Sold” for their original auction. There are currently 9 books in the archive that are categorized as not sold. One in particular, which was discussed here on the boards when first auctioned, is Saddle Justice #6.

After the initial auction of SJ#6, Heritage relisted the book a few days later with a Post-Auction Buy price tag of $21,000 (the winner apparently backed out of the deal). With the ending of the post-auction buy time, and no takers at $21K, the book was relisted and sold in a subsequent auction two months later for $6,600. That’s a paper loss of $14,400 or -69%.

(BTW, unless you have screen shots of books that initially sold at auction, and were later re-labeled as Not Sold, you’d never know what the original closing was.)
 

 

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

On 9/18/2022 at 4:21 PM, MasterChief said:

recycled books followed a clearly observable pattern of acquisition, manipulation, recertification, and liquidation.

Heritage launched a preemptive strike this time by starting the books out at 9.4 +

Edited September 18, 2022 by GreatCaesarsGhost

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

On 9/18/2022 at 5:30 PM, szav said:

I guess for all the criticism CGC took for soft grading on the Promise books, you could argue it would have been in their interest and  they’d have made more money if they graded them harsher so as to encourage repeated CPR attempts.

Good point 

[jimbo_7071]

On 9/18/2022 at 7:29 AM, GermanFan said:

What recovery? This is permanent.

Nothing's permanent. The United States won't even last forever.

The current financial situation might last for a generation, though. The millennials and their progeny will be fine. It'll be us Gen Xers who will have worse life outcomes than our parents because we had a terrible job market when we finished college in the mid 90s, so we got a late start on home ownership to begin with, and we were just starting to recover from the economic mess of 2008–2010 when this pandemic hit, and now we're too old to start over and have much hope of succeeding. We're basically the throwaway generation.

[tth2]

On 9/19/2022 at 6:30 AM, szav said:

I guess for all the criticism CGC took for soft grading on the Promise books, you could argue it would have been in their interest and  they’d have made more money if they graded them harsher so as to encourage repeated CPR attempts.

Maybe when they saw the sheer volume of books from the collection, they realized there was no bandwidth to handle a second wave of cracked Promise books, so they decided to preempt any second wave.

[lou_fine]

On 9/18/2022 at 2:21 PM, MasterChief said:

Yes, it is surprising. I found no upgrades. Books appear to be in the same state of original sale.

Historically, books that get relisted in a Heritage Auction in a relatively short period of time, typically 6-12 months, have gone through the post-auction manipulation process and are listed with new certification numbers and higher grades. That’s been the MO since Heritage Signature Auction #803 (July 4, 2002), which was the genesis of institutionalized manipulation. There wasn’t an auction like it beforehand, and Heritage auctions afterward that included recycled books followed a clearly observable pattern of acquisition, manipulation, recertification, and liquidation. There are mounds of data from countless auctions to validate the conclusion.

Hey Mitch;

Yes, for this Promise Collection, there clearly appears to be a sharp 180 degress change in the MO of how Heritage has handled the sale of this collection from the beginning consignment/acquisition stage right through to the final auction stage for these books, as compared to how all of their prior auctions have worked out.  Pre-emptive word of warning here, for all boardies who don't want to be bored to death reading about my theory on what might possibly have taken place here, please skip right to the next post instead of having the usual hate-on for me.   

Now, remember back to the original thread on the Promise Collection that was started back in March of 2021 and quite a few boardies speculated on the origins of this Promise Collection and if the family was still involved in it by the time it came to market last year.  Some speculated that they might have sold it off some 20 odd years ago to a dealer while most of us here assumed that it was simply nothing more than a regular consignment and that the family still had direct ownership of the collection when it came to market.  It seems that nobody here really knows as the question was never ever answered, so anything is possible.  

Now, consider this possibility here................I was flipping through the latest Overstreet Guide and noticed what I thought was a new one-page ad from Heritage whereby they proudly claim in bold red that "you should know that we have purchased individual collections for as much as $23 million, with immediate payment in full."  I then went back to the Overstreet guide for last year and noticed that they also had the exact same ad in the 2021 edition of the guide, but no such ad in any of the prior editions of the guide.  Now, in the last year and a half or thereabouts, has there really been any other single individual comic book or comic art collection that Heritage might possibly have purchased outright for $23 million?  I can't think of any on the comic book side and I will leave it to others when it comes to the comic art side since I know zippo about that market there.  The only collection that I can think of on the comic book side is this Promise Collection here, unless the other other possiblility is another new collection which they purchased but are holding off on auctioning it off which from my POV would seem highly unlikely.  

 

On 9/18/2022 at 3:31 PM, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

On 9/18/2022 at 3:30 PM, szav said:

I guess for all the criticism CGC took for soft grading on the Promise books, you could argue it would have been in their interest and  they’d have made more money if they graded them harsher so as to encourage repeated CPR attempts.

Good point 

Definitely a good point and a strong one for all prior auctions since Heritage was just the auction house auctioning off these books on behalf of their consignors and collecting the auction fees on the subsequent sales.  From a strict corporate business POV and for the realization of business synergies due to their linked ownership structure, it would definitely be good to maximize their top and bottom lines for the head honchos if you could get revenue from the same book not just once, but multiple times and from multiple streams of revenues.  

Now, would your MO change if you consider the other possibility........................namely that the auction house is not only auctioning off these books on behalf of a third party consignor, but is itself the direct owner of these very books here, whether they had purchased it directly from the family itself or from the so-called dealer who had purchased it from the family some 20 odd years ago?  Wouldn't your game plan change and it now serves your best financial interest to ensure that you get the absolute maximum price for all of these books right off the bat on the first go round because ALL 100% of the money will be going right straight into your top and bottom lines.  As a direct seller now, do you really want to leave room (i.e. "potential') in there for the buyer to simply go through the CPR process and collect on the easy money or are you going to use your intra-corporate connections and influence to ensure that the path is cleared for you and not the subsequent winner/purchaser to get maximum dollars for YOUR books.  

I believe the fact that we have seen absolutely zero attempts at a resub for these 43 Promise Collection resales in this heavily CPR focused grading environment kind of gives us a strong indication of what most probably took place here with this collection.    

Edited September 19, 2022 by lou_fine