Post your Promise Collection wins! 16 16

[Mmehdy]

On 3/9/2024 at 12:50 PM, Cat-Man_America said:

Each pedigree collection has pluses and minuses. IMO, Church is the best and among the most perfect examples of a discovered collection.  Church has all of the checked boxes, ...depth of numbers, key appearances, exceptional condition (covers and PQ), ideal preservation/storage conditions (which contributes to future longevity), easily recognizable albeit unobtrusive pedigree/distribution date markings, great background story that's fully verifiable, tight 3rd party grading, etc.

So, rhetorically speaking, where does the Promise Collection fall along the pedigree continuum? With no personal bias whatsoever, my personal assessment is it's way down the list. Granted, the Promise Collection has the numbers, but not a lot of key first appearances; while the overall condition of books as graded is high there's been debate over whether the assigned grades actually meet expectations, the question of storage is iffier, anecdotal and unverifiable, identifier markings vary, original owner story sounds almost too good to be true (and remains questionable as parts of it are unsubstantiated), and so on. This doesn't make the collection any less desirable, but it does provide significant caveats about the hype that resulted in fizzling skyrocket market values. 

Those of us who own Promise Collection books should not see this as a denouncement of the pedigree, but rather see it as a cautionary about "fever-bidding" and the predictable feeding frenzy over newly anointed pedigree collections parsed out into a hungry marketplace via a series of carefully orchestrated auctions under a cloud of hyperbole, mystique and muddled facts. That's my two cents; the caffeine influencer was included at no extra charge! 

I think it is unfair to compare the Promise collection on any type of judgement with Church or any other Pedigree which has had 20...30 or 50 years to amass a following after proper distribution among collectors and given that time elapsed long  period in which  major GA market appreciation took place . What I am saying is give the "Promise" collection a  chance and  "Leave them alone" in the immoral words of "Chris Crocker" on Britney Spears.

 When I purchased from Chuck at the SDCC some of the Church issues in the 70's way over guide...If I had attempted to sell them within one year or two....I would be getting the similar results as see here. You are "Rushing to Judgement" way before the real time to make a real decision using proper hindsight.

Got back  TO THE 70'S  and you would probably get worse results then seeing here a couple of years after purchase under this ever sale  of every book microscope . Lets make a intelligent and proper decision when the real time to reflect is right. I am sticking by my prediction and advise...They will in the long run prove to be a great purchase as long you hold for the proper amount of time.....and as I said the Promise book are a great LONG term hold.

 LEAVE THE PROMISE COLLECTION ALONE!!!!!!!

Edited March 9 by Mmehdy

[Cat-Man_America]

On 3/9/2024 at 4:36 PM, Mmehdy said:

I think it is unfair to compare the Promise collection on any type of judgement with Church or any other Pedigree which has had 20...30 or 50 years to amass a following after proper distribution among collectors and given that time elapsed long  period in which  major GA market appreciation took place . What I am saying is give the "Promise" collection a  chance and  "Leave them alone" in the immoral words of "Chris Crocker" on Britney Spears.

 When I purchased from Chuck at the SDCC some of the Church issues in the 70's way over guide...If I had attempted to sell them within one year or two....I would be getting the similar results as see here. You are "Rushing to Judgement" way before the real time to make a real decision using proper hindsight.

Got back  TO THE 70'S  and you would probably get worse results then seeing here a couple of years after purchase under this ever sale  of every book microscope . Lets make a intelligent and proper decision when the real time to reflect is right. I am sticking by my prediction and advise...They will in the long run prove to be a great purchase as long you hold for the proper amount of time.....and as I said the Promise book are a great LONG term hold.

 LEAVE THE PROMISE COLLECTION ALONE!!!!!!!

This is certainly another perspective, and in fairness, not totally unreasonable.

But the Church collection pedigree still checks more boxes than the Promise Collection in spite of the time gap between each collection's discovery and marketing. My biggest concern about any "newly discovered" collection is whether the attached hype is self serving to grading concerns and marketers. I'm not suggesting there's any ethical malfeasence going on, just that there seems to be an overwhelming presumption of "greatness" surrounding new finds that may lack the gravitas of long established pedigree collections.

Also, I think the Britney Spears analogy is a hoot, especially the "immoral" words of Chris Crocker (aka Cara Cunningham); ...hey, you said it!   

[jimbo_7071]

On 3/8/2024 at 2:12 PM, szav said:

My anecdotal impression is that GA market on the whole has actually maintained or gained in almost all genres even since the 2022 pandemic highs, whereas books from other eras have taken a sharp tumble as you noted.  This seems especially true in the genres I monitor closely, romance, Bakers, GGA.  Horror and classic covers all around seem to going up still too.

The only sharp drops I’ve seen are in the Promise books, and the GA mega keys (action 1 etc) but even then it’s only  been around a 15-25% drop on average.  So to answer you yes, the Promise book’s tumble does not seem to reflect what’s going on in GA otherwise.

Hmmm . . . I can't say that that jives with my own anecdotal experiences, @szav. For instance, I picked this book up for $821 last year in an eBay auction with quite a few bidders. The same copy had sold for $1,680 on Heritage during the pandemic.

I've been a fly on the wall for many auctions with similar results. If you focus on the hot books—like the Our Flag that sold for a nutty price recently—then it looks like GA is going up, but most books and titles aren't hot. I don't think that GA is down 50% across the board, but I suspect it's down at least 20 or 30%.

[Frisco Larson]

On 3/9/2024 at 5:54 PM, jimbo_7071 said:

Hmmm . . . I can't say that that jives with my own anecdotal experiences, @szav. For instance, I picked this book up for $821 last year in an eBay auction with quite a few bidders. The same copy had sold for $1,680 on Heritage during the pandemic.

I've been a fly on the wall for many auctions with similar results. If you focus on the hot books—like the Our Flag that sold for a nutty price recently—then it looks like GA is going up, but most books and titles aren't hot. I don't think that GA is down 50% across the board, but I suspect it's down at least 20 or 30%.

That's a VERY sharp copy you've got there!!! Congrats on getting it AND getting it at a greatly reduced price!!!  

[jimbo_7071]

On 3/9/2024 at 7:47 PM, szav said:

Well, I did say anecdotal. Since 2022 Bakers are up big time, high grade FH is up, GGA/Phantom Ladies are up big, many higher tier horror comics are up.....who knows how it all averages out.

I'm not sure where you're getting your data. The FH books that I've followed—mainly Planets—appear to be down from pandemic highs. (I've passed on copies that were offered for less than the in-grade highs from the HA archives.)

I haven't been following Baker covers lately, but the first one I picked randomly to do a price comparison isn't showing much of a gain: A 4.0 sold for far less in 2023 than what a 4.5 sold for in 2018. (There were no exact-grade comps on HA.) I would take a lot of time to really dig into the data.

[buttock]

Here's a hot take:  Demand for some GA is up, and for others is down. 

[tth2]

On 3/9/2024 at 2:03 AM, whomerjay said:

So a decline in Promise books comparable to overall SA decline- it's bad and being GA has not saved it.  To me it just means these books are now selling for what they should have originally sold for. 

The thing is I think they're still too expensive.

[tth2]

On 3/9/2024 at 1:28 AM, buttock said:

Be careful trying to use reason in this thread on these Boards! 

FTFY

[tth2]

On 3/9/2024 at 7:52 AM, MasterChief said:

“books that haven’t seen the light of day since they were purchased off newsstands in the 1940s”
(This statement is laughable if not insulting to the collector who viewed Heritage scans with an objective eye. And that’s not to mention the purported account that the books were actually bagged and boarded in ~2001 after the brother’s death)

I interpret "haven't seen the light of day since" to mean they haven't come to market, not literally that they haven't seen the light of day.  So I don't think the fact that the books were bagged and boarded in recent decades makes the sentence false.

And if the bagging and boarding was done in a basement with no windows, then they truly have not seen the light of day!  

[lou_fine]

On 3/7/2024 at 7:36 AM, buttock said:

I never knew you were a crypto person! 

Like you had posted in another thread here...................crypto guys are just so 2022.  

Since it's now 2024, they probably belong in the trash heap along with the EV guys as it's all about the AI bubble guys this year.  

[MasterChief]

On 3/9/2024 at 5:05 PM, tth2 said:

On 3/8/2024 at 1:52 PM, MasterChief said:

“books that haven’t seen the light of day since they were purchased off newsstands in the 1940s”
(This statement is laughable if not insulting to the collector who viewed Heritage scans with an objective eye. And that’s not to mention the purported account that the books were actually bagged and boarded in ~2001 after the brother’s death)

I interpret "haven't seen the light of day since" to mean they haven't come to market, not literally that they haven't seen the light of day.  So I don't think the fact that the books were bagged and boarded in recent decades makes the sentence false.

And if the bagging and boarding was done in a basement with no windows, then they truly have not seen the light of day!  

Understood, counselor. I got lazy with my argument. I should have fleshed out the first part of the comment and called attention to the fact that many of the books, especially those from the early 40s, exhibited clear indications of post-newsstand reading, handling, and being played around with by yutes before being boxed up and placed in storage for safe keeping after Junie was killed in action in 1951. 

Edited March 11 by MasterChief
added KIA year

[MrBedrock]

On 3/9/2024 at 7:50 PM, buttock said:

Here's a hot take:  Demand for some GA is up, and for others is down. 

[RareHighGrade]

The slide continues.  Even though this book was resubbed for an upgrade from 8.5 to 9.0, it still dropped 15% from its prior sale price.

Classic Comics #32 Lorna Doone - First Edition - The Promise | Lot #93056 | Heritage Auctions (ha.com)

I saw other examples as well in the current HA auction.