Post your Promise Collection wins! 17 17

[Cat-Man_America]

On 9/12/2023 at 11:39 PM, Silver Surfer said:

With 5,000 books in this collection any idea what sort of books can we expect to see in future auctions?

...Cheaper. 

In spite of the Hollywood -script-worthy pedigree story, the Promise Collection may be the first pedigree where some owners ask to have their books re-holdered in non-pedigree blue labels. 

[jimbo_7071]

On 9/12/2023 at 5:40 PM, N e r V said:

I would agree with that on all books from the collection that a majority probably agree on the assigned grade.

Many buyers have stated publicly that they think the books they bought were graded accurately—but what they state publicly and what they privately believe may not be the same. 

I have also noticed that many of the board members here have eagle eyes and managed to snag the small percentage of books that were deserving of the stated grades (or were at least very close). The buyers of many of the more loosely graded books remain anonymous.

If I look at books posted by board members, I see many books where the grades are on the money or one increment off. However, if I start look at Promise books on the HA site randomly, I might have to look at 50 books before I can find one where I agree with the grade. In general, it seems like the earliest-graded Promise books were the most loosely graded, but that's a subjective impression without any systematic analysis.

[drbanner]

On 9/13/2023 at 12:39 AM, Silver Surfer said:

With 5,000 books in this collection any idea what sort of books can we expect to see in future auctions?

Is there a complete list of the books in the collection posted anywhere? 

[Silver Surfer]

On 9/13/2023 at 3:57 AM, drbanner said:

Is there a complete list of the books in the collection posted anywhere? 

Not that I am aware of?

[tth2]

On 9/13/2023 at 12:39 PM, Silver Surfer said:

With 5,000 books in this collection any idea what sort of books can we expect to see in future auctions?

If you're asking if there are still any Promise books remaining to be released to the market for the first time, I believe that the entire collection has already been sold. 

[tth2]

On 9/13/2023 at 1:47 PM, lou_fine said:

On 9/13/2023 at 9:38 AM, tth2 said:

How can it, when you and others here so gleefully hammer the collection at every opportunity? 

Isn't it really the bidders or the non-presence of the deep pocketed bidders who normally play in this deep end of the pool the ones who are actually "hammering" the collection by letting the auction hammer drop way too soon on every Promise book resale?    

That's a price issue, which is not a reflection on the collection itself but a reflection on the people who simply paid way too much during the initial auctions and have compounded that problem by reselling way too soon.  Personally, I think the prices on resale have still been too high.

I'm talking about the fact that you and others here bad mouth the quality of the collection at every chance.

[Silver Surfer]

On 9/13/2023 at 7:01 AM, tth2 said:

If you're asking if there are still any Promise books remaining to be released to the market for the first time, I believe that the entire collection has already been sold. 

Wasn’t aware of that. 

[Robot Man]

On 9/12/2023 at 2:40 PM, N e r V said:

I would agree with that on all books from the collection that a majority probably agree on the assigned grade. I think anyone who purchased some of the more questionable graded books is going to find themselves in a more difficult position on asking prices for the assigned grade. There is something called how a book presents which will jump a price over a grade number at times but seeing a number of these books over the last couple years how are people going to feel about buying a high priced copy selling at its CGC 8.5 grade if you feel it looks more like a 7 or 7.5 for example? I never counted numbers but this collection seemed to offer more “optimistic” looking grades than other pedigrees from the past. Not sure how that reputation will stand in 5 years either. We will see I suppose.

Also I’m a fan of not worrying about overpaying at times for quality books. However there are limits that turn too much overpaying into bad business. In other words sometimes it can take to long for the prices to catch up so it becomes bad business choices. I’m still in awe when we go through crazy price overreaches (remember the stocks dot.com boom in late 90’s early 2000’s) that there are such large portions of the “herd” that think price run ups are endless and good times last forever.

The game in all business is musical chairs and the only winners are those that understand how long the song is and when to sit down. 

Over the years, if you hung on to stuff rather than flipped it quick, it didn’t matter so much if you overpaid. It always caught up and the longer you kept it, that original purchase price actually became laughable.

Times have certainly changed. Prices has reached unreal and not traditionally normal. The Promise Collection is a perfect example. How long can the hobby sustain this? Right now, no. Pricing is starting to stabilize a bit I think.

I have given up on estimating the value of my collection. Every time I see something that I have a copy of sell I’m floored.

I have just started looking at it that what it is worth it to me not what the undulating market says. I never have gone out on a limb or spent money I didn’t have or any financial hardship. It is as it always has been a hobby that gives me enjoyment not as a vehicle to make money on.

This way, I know I will have no regrets. 

[N e r V]

On 9/13/2023 at 9:05 AM, Robot Man said:

Over the years, if you hung on to stuff rather than flipped it quick, it didn’t matter so much if you overpaid. It always caught up and the longer you kept it, that original purchase price actually became laughable.

Times have certainly changed. Prices has reached unreal and not traditionally normal. The Promise Collection is a perfect example. How long can the hobby sustain this? Right now, no. Pricing is starting to stabilize a bit I think.

I have given up on estimating the value of my collection. Every time I see something that I have a copy of sell I’m floored.

I have just started looking at it that what it is worth it to me not what the undulating market says. I never have gone out on a limb or spent money I didn’t have or any financial hardship. It is as it always has been a hobby that gives me enjoyment not as a vehicle to make money on.

This way, I know I will have no regrets. 

Even though I worked as a dealer for roughly 20 years it was never my main job or source income. It was a thing to do on the side for extra money. It also gave me access to books for my own PC. Aside from that I view comic collecting as my hobby. I enjoy collecting and I enjoy the books. It’s fun. I’d do if they were all worth cover price. That why I started. The value is a bonus. It’s no different than enjoying art hanging on my wall that as a bonus has value. Never was part of my retirement plan. From your posts here I would say like me you’ve had a lot of good memories collecting something you love and in the end if it’s worth something that you or your family can benefit from financially then  more power to that. I’m super happy my views on comics stayed rooted on their value to my happiness and not their value to just my pocketbook…

Edited September 13, 2023 by N e r V

[Robot Man]

Well said and I obviously concur.

I often find myself looking at a comic or one of my other vintage collectibles with the memory of acquiring it. The “thrill of the hunt” is often much more important than the value or in a lot of cases, the object itself. 

[lou_fine]

On 9/13/2023 at 7:09 AM, tth2 said:

On 9/12/2023 at 10:47 PM, lou_fine said:

Isn't it really the bidders or the non-presence of the deep pocketed bidders who normally play in this deep end of the pool the ones who are actually "hammering" the collection by letting the auction hammer drop way too soon on every Promise book resale?    

That's a price issue, which is not a reflection on the collection itself but a reflection on the people who simply paid way too much during the initial auctions and have compounded that problem by reselling way too soon.  Personally, I think the prices on resale have still been too high.

 

You do realize that I was only you and really meant more in jest to your comment on my original post because of course it's a pricing issue and not a reflection on the quality of the collection itself.  

 

Now for the part of my original post to which you was commenting on:  

On 9/12/2023 at 1:37 PM, lou_fine said:

Hopefully, with the passage of time which tends to be a cure for most things, this collection can eventually attain its much deserved respected reputation and rightful place in the comic book hobby place without the baggage that it seemingly currently carries.    

 

 

On 9/12/2023 at 6:38 PM, tth2 said:

How can it, when you and others here so gleefully hammer the collection at every opportunity? 

 

On 9/13/2023 at 7:09 AM, tth2 said:

I'm talking about the fact that you and others here bad mouth the quality of the collection at every chance.

I don't quite see where I've always called the Promise Collection as a once in a lifetime generational collection right from the get go along with my original comment above as something that should be read and taken as bad mouthing the quality of the collection.  

The only negative comments wich I have had with respect to the Promise Collection was the manner in which it was handled from both a promotional and certification issues point of view, and absolutely nothing at all do do with the "quality" of the collection itself.  To say that I am denigrating the collection when I am really referring to promotional hype and grading issues is really tantamount to me saying (which I wouldn't) that you are bad mouthing the collection at every opportunity when you seem to gleefully and constantly point out that buyers simply paid way too much on the initial rounds of the auction and that prices in the subsequent resale rounds are still too high.  

[Silver Surfer]

On 9/13/2023 at 7:01 AM, tth2 said:

If you're asking if there are still any Promise books remaining to be released to the market for the first time, I believe that the entire collection has already been sold. 

I don’t want to harp on this issue, I love the collection generally speaking. But if all 5000 books have been sold then I would be shocked if Heritage wasn’t one of those buyers. If they are then I doubt they are taking a haircut on any of these relisted books. 

[Robot Man]

On 9/13/2023 at 6:08 PM, Silver Surfer said:

I don’t want to harp on this issue, I love the collection generally speaking. But if all 5000 books have been sold then I would be shocked if Heritage wasn’t one of those buyers. If they are then I doubt they are taking a haircut on any of these relisted books. 

HA has taken no haircut on this collection either in the first round or the realists. Probably one of their most profitable group of auctions. And one of the best marketing efforts to date.

I don’t know if they were buyers or if it is even legal to do so. I do know that Texas law makes it OK to shill auctions.

That is one of several reasons I stay away from their auctions.

I don’t belittle this incredible collection. But I do have opinions on grading, the story and the crazy individuals who bought these books at insane prices and fell for the hype.

[Cat-Man_America]

On 9/14/2023 at 9:27 AM, Robot Man said:

HA has taken no haircut on this collection either in the first round or the realists. Probably one of their most profitable group of auctions. And one of the best marketing efforts to date.

I don’t know if they were buyers or if it is even legal to do so. I do know that Texas law makes it OK to shill auctions.

That is one of several reasons I stay away from their auctions.

I don’t belittle this incredible collection. But I do have opinions on grading, the story and the crazy individuals who bought these books at insane prices and fell for the hype.

The original owners ...or rather their heirs... and HA did very well here, IMO. In that respect, the Promise Collection was a win/win all around. It's doubtful any shill-bidding had an impact on sales (if there actually was any), because this collection had such powerful publicity going forward that the market was primed for BIG ticket sales. Behind the scenes shills are only useful in two instances: 1) to bolster low ball bidding, and 2) to secretly acquire books from collections "in house" at low ball prices for better targeted resales later or actual collection acquisition by an insider.  This isn't a reason to avoid HA as long as the prices are competitive and one doesn't get too wrapped up in the hamster wheel of bid-button tapping. It's always wise to have a bidding game plan with "err brakes" as you can never be sure who might be bidding against you at the other end.

As for the Promise Collection as a pedigree, I don't belittle it. It deserves community appreciation, but the reputation has been sullied somewhat by open questioning of some of the more debatable stratospheric grade opinions. It's actually an unfortunate situation where many spot on grades have suffered by association with other more questionable grade opinions. It's unfair to gauge an entire collection by a few debatable outliers, but that genie has been out of the bottle a long time; at least since the first batch of Promise Collection books with nose-bleed grades sported out-of-this-world hammer prices before a sobering up collector community reentered earth's orbit and splashed down in normal gravity. I have a pretty good grasp of the situation as a whole and understand the frustration from every angle and pointing fingers isn't likely to improve it.  

That said, hopefully those involved in pedigree grading will analyze market reactions and if deemed necessary make adjustments to avoid this happening in the future. 

My two cents, applied liberally, without alcohol lubricants (yet). 

Edited September 14, 2023 by Cat-Man_America
Looking for ale!

[The Black Hand ®]

Sweet!

[MasterChief]

Update!

At the close of today's Signature Auction, 48 Promises were liquidated increasing the total catalogued to 262.

While today's sales register a 14% loss for the month of September overall, there is a slight dip in net loss (-23%) as compared to the last updated (-26%).     

Note: With data points increasing, a new table is presented to look under the hood and analyze Promise Collection genres.
      
Data sorted oldest to newest Sale Date.
(Source: Heritage Auctions (HA), Comic Connect (CC), ComicLink (CL), eBay)

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 15, 2023 by MasterChief
image work

[tth2]

Thanks MC, great work as usual!

There were some serious baths taken on the Detectives! 

[RareHighGrade]

Great job MasterChief!!  Can you give us an idea of what titles fall under the "Adventure" category?

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

That last chart is perfecto @MasterChief
 

since “horror” and “adventure” appear to be the only genres whose value went up the second time around, I too am curious what titles comprise “adventure”

Edited September 15, 2023 by GreatCaesarsGhost

[Dr. Love]

On 9/15/2023 at 1:45 PM, RareHighGrade said:

Great job MasterChief!!  Can you give us an idea of what titles fall under the "Adventure" category?

This one doesn't require the Master.  On HA search for "promise collection", click the sold tab, and then in the left column open the Genre dropdown and click Adventure.  Of the 5,017 sold, HA has 694 with the attribute "Adventure".  Surprisingly, two Tomahawk issues are included.  How different outfits handle their databases is pretty interesting.

From MC's sold list, Adventure includes:  Boy Comics. Boy Commandos, Captain Easy, Fight Comics, Four Color, Moon Girl, Rulah, and Seven Seas.