Post your Promise Collection wins! 17 17

[buttock]

On 3/6/2024 at 3:50 PM, Frisco Larson said:

Oh, and as far as the wonderful chart @MasterChief has been compiling, my only other experience with a Promise Collection comic IS on there, me being the buyer from Heritage AND me being the seller on Comiclink. I (somewhat) isolated that result in the cropped chart entry below. For the record, I'm not too terribly upset with my loss on the book, as I changed direction a bit and that copy was able to be put back into circulation. Ya win some, ya lose some, either way, I got to enjoy it for about a year and that's worth something to me!  

 

I never knew you were a crypto person! 

[Frisco Larson]

On 3/7/2024 at 9:36 AM, buttock said:

I never knew you were a crypto person! 

You have NO idea how hilarious that is!!!      

[Robot Man]

On 3/7/2024 at 6:40 AM, jimbo_7071 said:

A fool and his money are soon parted, to be sure. I overpaid badly for both of my high-grade Promise books, but that's not a big deal to me because I overpay badly for non-pedigree books all the time.

I'm content with what I paid for my midgrade Promise book, though ($7,500 plus tax and shipping). I have no regrets about that purchase.

In general, it seemed like the mid-grade books went for strong prices but not insane prices.

If you love the book more than the price you paid, you did not over pay. I have found than when I have paid up for a book, in time it has always turned out to be a deal. I’m a “keeper” so the need to flip for a quick profit never figures into my decision.

The Promise collection was no “attic find”. An amazing collection in amazing condition. I know a lot of savy collectors paid up for books for their personal collections. These folks know that if they hang on to them, they will do just fine financially. The flippers, are taking a cold bath.

At the end of the day, as it has always been, there are folks who have plenty of money and there are folks who just either don’t or have other priorities.

[MasterChief]

On 3/7/2024 at 4:40 AM, jimbo_7071 said:

A fool and his money are soon parted, to be sure. I overpaid badly for both of my high-grade Promise books, but that's not a big deal to me because I overpay badly for non-pedigree books all the time.

I’m in the same boat, but I don’t consider myself as being “ripped off” as that implies I and others were cheated by Heritage. If it can be proven that we were bidding against N.P. Gresham during the many Promise Collection auctions that went down, then yeah, we that won were ripped off. But I doubt that’s the case here. What the ROI data suggests, however, is that many bidders, including myself, played into marketing hype and the irrational exuberance that followed, thus apparent subjects of the Greater Fool Theory, at least in the short-term.

For those unfamiliar with the Greater Fool Theory, there’s much about it on the web. Here’s just one piece that discusses it (read with the Promise Collection in mind):

The Greater Fool Theory: The Root Cause Of Market Bubbles?
Written byKarl Montevirgen
Fact-checked byDoug Ashburn
https://www.britannica.com/money/what-is-greater-fool-theory

Suppose a stock that’s been hyped on social media goes viral, infecting the social trading space with a severe case of FOMO (fear of missing out). Now, everyone’s talking about it, and soon people begin buying in droves, clogging up the digital order flow space with a frenzied folly of bids.

The stock is already up over 100% from its lows, and by your own estimates, that’s way overvalued—disconnected from its fundamental worth. Yet its price keeps advancing. Do you pass it up, wait for the price to pull back a bit, or do you pull the trigger and buy some shares?

The overblown narrative lifting the stock has proven compelling enough to take prices this far, so why not aim higher? And surely, somewhere in the stratosphere of lofty values, there’s likely to be someone who’s willing to pay an even more exorbitant price down the road, right?

That’s the basis of the greater fool theory. As a trading strategy, it’s an extreme (if not cynical, and most definitely risky) version of a key component of technical analysis—trading on momentum. But as any veteran momentum trader will tell you, when a momentum trade turns into a “bubble trade,” it can go from lucrative to dangerous at a moment’s notice.

Why would someone risk buying a fundamentally unsound investment?

Betting on a “greater fool” outcome seems risky, almost like a gamble. After all, it’s about investing in a bubbling asset or assets in a bubbling market. So, why not just avoid it? Well, it’s not that clear-cut or simple. Not all bubbles are the same. As we’ll see, some are hard to identify and difficult to avoid.

What is a speculative bubble?

A speculative bubble is a situation where the price of an asset rises above its fundamental value because of excessive speculation. In a speculative bubble scenario, investors are willing to pay higher prices for an asset whose real value may be much less. This can apply to single assets or to a group of assets within a broader industry, sector, or market.

So, what drives excessive speculation? It depends on the type of bubble.

Short-term bubbles

More often than not, short-term bubbles are driven by some form of hype. It might be a news report, a celebrity announcement, a social media post gone viral, or any kind of communication that can persuade a large number of people to buy an asset.

When assets experience this type of bubble, their prices are bid up rapidly—fueled not by fundamental value, but rather by narrative.

Long-term bubbles

Long-term bubbles are tricker to detect, as they form gradually and move slowly. These bubbles can last for years, especially if they’re supported by low interest rates (low borrowing costs), which can increase the demand for riskier assets. Typically, this helps boost jobs, wages, wealth perception, and consumer demand. When broad demand outpaces supply, prices tend to inflate, and this includes financial assets.

In a booming economy on the verge of “overheating,” it’s often difficult to tell whether asset prices (like stocks and real estate) are rising thanks to increased value or just plain speculative demand, also known as “irrational exuberance.”

Bubbles of a third kind (no fundamentals)

As an investor (and not a florist), how do you evaluate the financial fundamentals of a tulip bulb? It might sound like an odd question, because tulips aren’t traditional financial instruments. They don’t have the durability common to most collectibles, and they’re not consumable or functional like commodities such as food and gasoline. Yet, they’re infamous for being the focal point of Tulip Mania, one of the most outrageous speculative bubbles in history.

More recently, the cryptocurrency space has shown a similar phenomenon, this time with digital financial assets. Unlike tulips, cryptocurrencies were designed either to provide alternative monetary value or to facilitate financial processes. The problem is that there’s no standardized way to measure crypto fundamentals. The industry is still in its infancy. So it’s almost like having no fundamentals at all, because there’s no surefire way to measure them.

Yet, mass crypto speculation caught on like wildfire, bubbling and bursting in 2017 and 2021, with many “greater fools” taking deep losses.

Should you attempt a greater fool strategy?

Should you avoid overvalued assets, or might you consider betting on a greater fool to help you cash in?

Exploiting a short-term bubble can be ultra-risky. Short-term bubbles can burst in a matter of days, hours, or even minutes. This type of speculation is more of a trade than an investment. Whether you can pull it off really depends on your trading experience, whether you’re able to “babysit” your trades each day, and—let’s be honest—whether you’re feeling lucky.

In other words, you should either be a trading pro, or you should be playing with money you can afford to lose.

But if you’re dealing with a long-term bubble—one that could go on for years—then you face a dilemma. You can either risk time in the market (investing despite a potential bubble) or timing the market (waiting for it to burst, if it is indeed a bubble).

This is where your portfolio management principles and skills come into play. If you’re investing for the long term and using sound risk management principles, then the greater fool theory may not be so relevant to your far-horizon strategy or goals.

The bottom line

It seems there are always greater fools in the market willing to pay high prices for assets on the verge of correction or collapse. The problem is that it’s hard to know how many are out there, whether their numbers are dwindling, and whether the few that are left are wising up.

Sometimes the “greater fool” is a matter of perspective that has more to do with your approach to trading versus investing. If you’re investing with the assumption that a greater fool might be out there, just remember that it could be you.

Edited March 9 by MasterChief

[buttock]

On 3/7/2024 at 2:55 PM, MasterChief said:

I’m in the same boat, but I don’t consider myself as being “ripped off” as that implies I and others were cheated by Heritage. If it can be proven that we were bidding against N.P. Gresham during the many Promise Collection auctions that went down, then yeah, we who won were ripped off. But I doubt that’s the case here. What the ROI data suggests, however, is that many bidders, including myself, played into marketing hype and the irrational exuberance that followed, thus apparent subjects of the Greater Fool Theory, at least in the short-term.

For those unfamiliar with the Greater Fool Theory, there’s much about it on the web. Here’s just one piece that discusses it (read with the Promise Collection in mind):

The Greater Fool Theory: The Root Cause Of Market Bubbles?
Written byKarl Montevirgen
Fact-checked byDoug Ashburn
https://www.britannica.com/money/what-is-greater-fool-theory

Suppose a stock that’s been hyped on social media goes viral, infecting the social trading space with a severe case of FOMO (fear of missing out). Now, everyone’s talking about it, and soon people begin buying in droves, clogging up the digital order flow space with a frenzied folly of bids.

The stock is already up over 100% from its lows, and by your own estimates, that’s way overvalued—disconnected from its fundamental worth. Yet its price keeps advancing. Do you pass it up, wait for the price to pull back a bit, or do you pull the trigger and buy some shares?

The overblown narrative lifting the stock has proven compelling enough to take prices this far, so why not aim higher? And surely, somewhere in the stratosphere of lofty values, there’s likely to be someone who’s willing to pay an even more exorbitant price down the road, right?

That’s the basis of the greater fool theory. As a trading strategy, it’s an extreme (if not cynical, and most definitely risky) version of a key component of technical analysis—trading on momentum. But as any veteran momentum trader will tell you, when a momentum trade turns into a “bubble trade,” it can go from lucrative to dangerous at a moment’s notice.

Why would someone risk buying a fundamentally unsound investment?

Betting on a “greater fool” outcome seems risky, almost like a gamble. After all, it’s about investing in a bubbling asset or assets in a bubbling market. So, why not just avoid it? Well, it’s not that clear-cut or simple. Not all bubbles are the same. As we’ll see, some are hard to identify and difficult to avoid.

What is a speculative bubble?

A speculative bubble is a situation where the price of an asset rises above its fundamental value because of excessive speculation. In a speculative bubble scenario, investors are willing to pay higher prices for an asset whose real value may be much less. This can apply to single assets or to a group of assets within a broader industry, sector, or market.

So, what drives excessive speculation? It depends on the type of bubble.

Short-term bubbles

More often than not, short-term bubbles are driven by some form of hype. It might be a news report, a celebrity announcement, a social media post gone viral, or any kind of communication that can persuade a large number of people to buy an asset.

When assets experience this type of bubble, their prices are bid up rapidly—fueled not by fundamental value, but rather by narrative.

Long-term bubbles

Long-term bubbles are tricker to detect, as they form gradually and move slowly. These bubbles can last for years, especially if they’re supported by low interest rates (low borrowing costs), which can increase the demand for riskier assets. Typically, this helps boost jobs, wages, wealth perception, and consumer demand. When broad demand outpaces supply, prices tend to inflate, and this includes financial assets.

In a booming economy on the verge of “overheating,” it’s often difficult to tell whether asset prices (like stocks and real estate) are rising thanks to increased value or just plain speculative demand, also known as “irrational exuberance.”

Bubbles of a third kind (no fundamentals)

As an investor (and not a florist), how do you evaluate the financial fundamentals of a tulip bulb? It might sound like an odd question, because tulips aren’t traditional financial instruments. They don’t have the durability common to most collectibles, and they’re not consumable or functional like commodities such as food and gasoline. Yet, they’re infamous for being the focal point of Tulip Mania, one of the most outrageous speculative bubbles in history.

More recently, the cryptocurrency space has shown a similar phenomenon, this time with digital financial assets. Unlike tulips, cryptocurrencies were designed either to provide alternative monetary value or to facilitate financial processes. The problem is that there’s no standardized way to measure crypto fundamentals. The industry is still in its infancy. So it’s almost like having no fundamentals at all, because there’s no surefire way to measure them.

Yet, mass crypto speculation caught on like wildfire, bubbling and bursting in 2017 and 2021, with many “greater fools” taking deep losses.

Should you attempt a greater fool strategy?

Should you avoid overvalued assets, or might you consider betting on a greater fool to help you cash in?

Exploiting a short-term bubble can be ultra-risky. Short-term bubbles can burst in a matter of days, hours, or even minutes. This type of speculation is more of a trade than an investment. Whether you can pull it off really depends on your trading experience, whether you’re able to “babysit” your trades each day, and—let’s be honest—whether you’re feeling lucky.

In other words, you should either be a trading pro, or you should be playing with money you can afford to lose.

But if you’re dealing with a long-term bubble—one that could go on for years—then you face a dilemma. You can either risk time in the market (investing despite a potential bubble) or timing the market (waiting for it to burst, if it is indeed a bubble).

This is where your portfolio management principles and skills come into play. If you’re investing for the long term and using sound risk management principles, then the greater fool theory may not be so relevant to your far-horizon strategy or goals.

The bottom line

It seems there are always greater fools in the market willing to pay high prices for assets on the verge of correction or collapse. The problem is that it’s hard to know how many are out there, whether their numbers are dwindling, and whether the few that are left are wising up.

Sometimes the “greater fool” is a matter of perspective that has more to do with your approach to trading versus investing. If you’re investing with the assumption that a greater fool might be out there, just remember that it could be you.

Some of us just wanted cool comics and paid what it took to get them.  

[Robot Man]

[Cat-Man_America]

On 3/7/2024 at 3:55 PM, MasterChief said:

I’m in the same boat, but I don’t consider myself as being “ripped off” as that implies I and others were cheated by Heritage. If it can be proven that we were bidding against N.P. Gresham during the many Promise Collection auctions that went down, then yeah, we who won were ripped off. But I doubt that’s the case here. What the ROI data suggests, however, is that many bidders, including myself, played into marketing hype and the irrational exuberance that followed, thus apparent subjects of the Greater Fool Theory, at least in the short-term.

For those unfamiliar with the Greater Fool Theory, there’s much about it on the web. Here’s just one piece that discusses it (read with the Promise Collection in mind):

The Greater Fool Theory: The Root Cause Of Market Bubbles?
Written byKarl Montevirgen
Fact-checked byDoug Ashburn
https://www.britannica.com/money/what-is-greater-fool-theory

Suppose a stock that’s been hyped on social media goes viral, infecting the social trading space with a severe case of FOMO (fear of missing out). Now, everyone’s talking about it, and soon people begin buying in droves, clogging up the digital order flow space with a frenzied folly of bids.

The stock is already up over 100% from its lows, and by your own estimates, that’s way overvalued—disconnected from its fundamental worth. Yet its price keeps advancing. Do you pass it up, wait for the price to pull back a bit, or do you pull the trigger and buy some shares?

The overblown narrative lifting the stock has proven compelling enough to take prices this far, so why not aim higher? And surely, somewhere in the stratosphere of lofty values, there’s likely to be someone who’s willing to pay an even more exorbitant price down the road, right?

That’s the basis of the greater fool theory. As a trading strategy, it’s an extreme (if not cynical, and most definitely risky) version of a key component of technical analysis—trading on momentum. But as any veteran momentum trader will tell you, when a momentum trade turns into a “bubble trade,” it can go from lucrative to dangerous at a moment’s notice.

Why would someone risk buying a fundamentally unsound investment?

Betting on a “greater fool” outcome seems risky, almost like a gamble. After all, it’s about investing in a bubbling asset or assets in a bubbling market. So, why not just avoid it? Well, it’s not that clear-cut or simple. Not all bubbles are the same. As we’ll see, some are hard to identify and difficult to avoid.

What is a speculative bubble?

A speculative bubble is a situation where the price of an asset rises above its fundamental value because of excessive speculation. In a speculative bubble scenario, investors are willing to pay higher prices for an asset whose real value may be much less. This can apply to single assets or to a group of assets within a broader industry, sector, or market.

So, what drives excessive speculation? It depends on the type of bubble.

Short-term bubbles

More often than not, short-term bubbles are driven by some form of hype. It might be a news report, a celebrity announcement, a social media post gone viral, or any kind of communication that can persuade a large number of people to buy an asset.

When assets experience this type of bubble, their prices are bid up rapidly—fueled not by fundamental value, but rather by narrative.

Long-term bubbles

Long-term bubbles are tricker to detect, as they form gradually and move slowly. These bubbles can last for years, especially if they’re supported by low interest rates (low borrowing costs), which can increase the demand for riskier assets. Typically, this helps boost jobs, wages, wealth perception, and consumer demand. When broad demand outpaces supply, prices tend to inflate, and this includes financial assets.

In a booming economy on the verge of “overheating,” it’s often difficult to tell whether asset prices (like stocks and real estate) are rising thanks to increased value or just plain speculative demand, also known as “irrational exuberance.”

Bubbles of a third kind (no fundamentals)

As an investor (and not a florist), how do you evaluate the financial fundamentals of a tulip bulb? It might sound like an odd question, because tulips aren’t traditional financial instruments. They don’t have the durability common to most collectibles, and they’re not consumable or functional like commodities such as food and gasoline. Yet, they’re infamous for being the focal point of Tulip Mania, one of the most outrageous speculative bubbles in history.

More recently, the cryptocurrency space has shown a similar phenomenon, this time with digital financial assets. Unlike tulips, cryptocurrencies were designed either to provide alternative monetary value or to facilitate financial processes. The problem is that there’s no standardized way to measure crypto fundamentals. The industry is still in its infancy. So it’s almost like having no fundamentals at all, because there’s no surefire way to measure them.

Yet, mass crypto speculation caught on like wildfire, bubbling and bursting in 2017 and 2021, with many “greater fools” taking deep losses.

Should you attempt a greater fool strategy?

Should you avoid overvalued assets, or might you consider betting on a greater fool to help you cash in?

Exploiting a short-term bubble can be ultra-risky. Short-term bubbles can burst in a matter of days, hours, or even minutes. This type of speculation is more of a trade than an investment. Whether you can pull it off really depends on your trading experience, whether you’re able to “babysit” your trades each day, and—let’s be honest—whether you’re feeling lucky.

In other words, you should either be a trading pro, or you should be playing with money you can afford to lose.

But if you’re dealing with a long-term bubble—one that could go on for years—then you face a dilemma. You can either risk time in the market (investing despite a potential bubble) or timing the market (waiting for it to burst, if it is indeed a bubble).

This is where your portfolio management principles and skills come into play. If you’re investing for the long term and using sound risk management principles, then the greater fool theory may not be so relevant to your far-horizon strategy or goals.

The bottom line

It seems there are always greater fools in the market willing to pay high prices for assets on the verge of correction or collapse. The problem is that it’s hard to know how many are out there, whether their numbers are dwindling, and whether the few that are left are wising up.

Sometimes the “greater fool” is a matter of perspective that has more to do with your approach to trading versus investing. If you’re investing with the assumption that a greater fool might be out there, just remember that it could be you.

I agree with pretty much all of this as an overview of the balloon-atic nature of investment collecting, but a bubble in comic collecting is a bit more nuanced because values are so closely tied to 3rd Party grading (that said, I kinda like the tulip analogy in respect to petal-ing comics). Cryptocurrencies are just scary (anything with the word crypt in it has an implied risk of finality). This elusive type of transaction is certainly a variable in the investment criteria of most collectibles these days, but where market bubbles are concerned the monetary sourcing is probably an outlier.  The three biggest factors in bubble perception are these (no particular order):

1) Grade or rather the perception of grading accuracy (trust in the third party grading company's accuracy in establishing comparable values of lower and superior grades)

2) Media speculation (published or heavily rumored television and/or movie studio interest in character properties that are hotly competed for origins or first appearances)

3) Censes rankings (grades and desirability weighed against the number of available copies in the marketplace is the gauge by which all collectible paper is valued)

Note: The factor which I like to zero in on is total censes numbers which determine whether a collectible can be subject to serious volatility in the ebb and flow of an economic downturn. This is one of the reasons I'm persuaded that GA is less vulnerable to catastrophic bubbles (Promise Collection feeding frenzies and market corrections notwithstanding).

On 3/7/2024 at 4:51 PM, buttock said:

Some of us just wanted cool comics and paid what it took to get them.  

I think this is called the bubble gum theory of investment. 

Edited March 8 by Cat-Man_America

[DC#]

On 3/4/2024 at 11:39 PM, MasterChief said:

Update!

As March moves forward, this update encompasses sales from the past three months.

The Promise Collection ROI closed 2023 with a torpedoing on December 7th that drove the overall 2023 losses to a new high, from -23% to -27%, where it remains today. Six books propelled the negative result with the close of Heritage’s Showcase Auction in December at a combined loss of -$243,043 or -64%. Memo to Hertiage Auctions: Do not close auctions on Pearl Harbor Day.

With the beginning of the new year, it started with an irregular gain in Promise liquidation returns. Most notable was the 329% positive increase of Shadow Comics V7#12. However, January’s gains were unable to move the overall ROI dial with the offset of February’s greater losses.

As we observe the third year since the collection’s November 2021 premiere, one thing is seemingly evident at this point in time. The Promise Collection has not lived up to the hype and it is putting the Greater Fool Theory to the ultimate test.

Data sorted oldest to newest Sale Date.
(Source: Heritage Auctions (HA), Comic Connect (CC), ComicLink (CL), eBay)

 

Please be gentle with me.....I am not a hard-core GA collector and have only had a passing interest in the Promise Collection (and only read the last half dozen pages of this thread).     I have never seen a robust recap of the GA market overall but there are some where people have been tracking Silver, Bronze, and Copper (Silver attached below for reference).   Most of these indexes show that the Mid-to-late 2021 window was the peak and all those markets are off those peaks by roughly 50%.    The original Promise Collection auctions hit right during that peak window.    

Is the belief that the decline in Promise books is outside/above any normal declines in GA overall market?    I appreciate that there are some very brutal numbers in that recap for some books - so the aggregate view may mask the challenge of many specific Promise books.    And also appreciate that GA may be harder to "index" for multiple reasons.   

Just curious - especially with the polarizing effect that the Promise Collection seemed to engender among some collectors.  

 

 

[buttock]

On 3/8/2024 at 9:46 AM, DC# said:

Please be gentle with me.....I am not a hard-core GA collector and have only had a passing interest in the Promise Collection (and only read the last half dozen pages of this thread).     I have never seen a robust recap of the GA market overall but there are some where people have been tracking Silver, Bronze, and Copper (Silver attached below for reference).   Most of these indexes show that the Mid-to-late 2021 window was the peak and all those markets are off those peaks by roughly 50%.    The original Promise Collection auctions hit right during that peak window.    

Is the belief that the decline in Promise books is outside/above any normal declines in GA overall market?    I appreciate that there are some very brutal numbers in that recap for some books - so the aggregate view may mask the challenge of many specific Promise books.    And also appreciate that GA may be harder to "index" for multiple reasons.   

Just curious - especially with the polarizing effect that the Promise Collection seemed to engender among some collectors.  

 

 

Be careful trying to use reason in this thread! 

[whomerjay]

On 3/8/2024 at 11:46 AM, DC# said:

Is the belief that the decline in Promise books is outside/above any normal declines in GA overall market?    I appreciate that there are some very brutal numbers in that recap for some books - so the aggregate view may mask the challenge of many specific Promise books.    And also appreciate that GA may be harder to "index" for multiple reasons.   

 

I don't believe anyone has quantified the health of the overall GA market. Anecdotal musings suggest it has either improved, remained the same, or declined albeit significantly less than have later era books.

So a decline in Promise books comparable to overall SA decline- it's bad and being GA has not saved it.  To me it just means these books are now selling for what they should have originally sold for. 

[MasterChief]

On 3/8/2024 at 6:46 AM, DC# said:

Please be gentle with me.....I am not a hard-core GA collector and have only had a passing interest in the Promise Collection (and only read the last half dozen pages of this thread).     I have never seen a robust recap of the GA market overall but there are some where people have been tracking Silver, Bronze, and Copper (Silver attached below for reference).   Most of these indexes show that the Mid-to-late 2021 window was the peak and all those markets are off those peaks by roughly 50%.    The original Promise Collection auctions hit right during that peak window.    

Is the belief that the decline in Promise books is outside/above any normal declines in GA overall market?    I appreciate that there are some very brutal numbers in that recap for some books - so the aggregate view may mask the challenge of many specific Promise books.    And also appreciate that GA may be harder to "index" for multiple reasons.   

Just curious - especially with the polarizing effect that the Promise Collection seemed to engender among some collectors.

The collection of data began as an idea to look under the hood of Promise Collection initial sales and subsequent short-term liquidations to get an appreciation of how pre-marketing and follow-on post initial auction advertising hype, delivered by Heritage, CGC, independent media, and social media may have led to and drove the FOMO phenomenon and irrational exuberance. It was not meant to be a barometer of the GA market. With regard to FOMO, there were many discussions and analogies made here on these boards (and elsewhere) comparing the Church Collection to the Promise Collection while underscoring how collectors missed out on a windfall of gains if they were unwilling to pay Rozanski’s Church prices at the time. Thus the apparent “pump” was not to miss the boat with buying a piece, or many pieces as some seemingly did, of the Promise Collection. Not saying that kind of talk led to the FOMO phenomenon in totality or captivated any one individual in particular, but when coupled with catchy and enticing sales and marketing phrases such as those that follow, which are only a very few used to promote the collection, it may be hard to say that collectively they didn’t have an effect:

“An amazing story of how a brother’s promise to protect a fallen veteran’s treasure trove of Golden Age Comics could be worth $10 million decades later”

“A collection of Golden Age comic books in pristine condition”

“it’s “the highest-quality pedigree collection, book for book, to debut in our hobby in the last 25 years”

“books that haven’t seen the light of day since they were purchased off newsstands in the 1940s”

“The collection’s depth and scope is almost unparalleled”

“Put simply, The Promise Collection will go down in history as one of the greatest comic-book finds of all time”

*****

By the way...
For those interested in such things:

Promise Collection ROI Update! Links:

(1)    Posted September 17, 2022
https://boards.cgccomics.com/topic/492270-post-your-promise-collection-wins/?do=findComment&comment=12514240

(2)    Posted November 19, 2022
https://boards.cgccomics.com/topic/492270-post-your-promise-collection-wins/?do=findComment&comment=12591086

(3)    Posted December 18, 2022
https://boards.cgccomics.com/topic/492270-post-your-promise-collection-wins/?do=findComment&comment=12625080

(4)    Posted February 22, 2023
https://boards.cgccomics.com/topic/492270-post-your-promise-collection-wins/?do=findComment&comment=12703032

(5)    Posted April 6, 2023
https://boards.cgccomics.com/topic/492270-post-your-promise-collection-wins/?do=findComment&comment=12757403

(6)    Posted March 30, 2023
https://boards.cgccomics.com/topic/492270-post-your-promise-collection-wins/?do=findComment&comment=12749631

(7)    Posted September 14, 2023
https://boards.cgccomics.com/topic/492270-post-your-promise-collection-wins/?do=findComment&comment=12935859

(8)    Posted June 22, 2023
https://boards.cgccomics.com/topic/492270-post-your-promise-collection-wins/?do=findComment&comment=12839455

(9)    Posted December 1, 2023
https://boards.cgccomics.com/topic/492270-post-your-promise-collection-wins/?do=findComment&comment=13011367

(10) Posted March 4, 2023
https://boards.cgccomics.com/topic/492270-post-your-promise-collection-wins/?do=findComment&comment=13116851

Edited March 9 by MasterChief
typo

[DC#]

On 3/8/2024 at 12:14 PM, MasterChief said:

The collection of data began as an idea to look under the hood of Promise Collection initial sales and subsequent short-term liquidations to get an appreciation of how pre-marketing and follow-on post initial auction advertising hype, delivered by Heritage, CGC, independent media, and social media may have led to and drove the FOMO phenomenon and irrational exuberance. It was not meant to be a barometer of the GA market. With regard to FOMO, there were many discussions and analogies made here on these boards (and elsewhere) comparing the Church Collection to the Promise Collection while underscoring how collectors missed out on a windfall of gains if they were unwilling to pay Rozanski’s Church prices at the time. Thus the apparent “pump” was not to miss the boat with buying a piece, or many pieces as some seemingly did, of the Promise Collection. Not saying that kind of talk led to the FOMO phenomenon in totality or captivated any one individual in particular, but when coupled with catchy and enticing sales and marketing phrases such as those that follow, which are only a very few used to promote the collection, it may be hard to say that collectively they didn’t have an effect:

“An amazing story of how a brother’s promise to protect a fallen veteran’s treasure trove of Golden Age Comics could be worth $10 million decades later”

“A collection of Golden Age comic books in pristine condition”

“it’s “the highest-quality pedigree collection, book for book, to debut in our hobby in the last 25 years”

“books that haven’t seen the light of day since they were purchased off newsstands in the 1940s”

“The collection’s depth and scope is almost unparalleled”

“Put simply, The Promise Collection will go down in history as one of the greatest comic-book finds of all time”

*****

By the way...
For those interested in such things:

Promise Collection ROI Update! Links:

(1)    Posted September 17, 2022
https://boards.cgccomics.com/topic/492270-post-your-promise-collection-wins/?do=findComment&comment=12514240

(2)    Posted November 19, 2022
https://boards.cgccomics.com/topic/492270-post-your-promise-collection-wins/?do=findComment&comment=12591086

(3)    Posted December 18, 2022
https://boards.cgccomics.com/topic/492270-post-your-promise-collection-wins/?do=findComment&comment=12625080

(4)    Posted February 22, 2023
https://boards.cgccomics.com/topic/492270-post-your-promise-collection-wins/?do=findComment&comment=12703032

(5)    Posted April 6, 2023
https://boards.cgccomics.com/topic/492270-post-your-promise-collection-wins/?do=findComment&comment=12757403

(6)    Posted March 30, 2023
https://boards.cgccomics.com/topic/492270-post-your-promise-collection-wins/?do=findComment&comment=12749631

(7)    Posted September 14, 2023
https://boards.cgccomics.com/topic/492270-post-your-promise-collection-wins/?do=findComment&comment=12935859

(8)    Posted June 22, 2023
https://boards.cgccomics.com/topic/492270-post-your-promise-collection-wins/?do=findComment&comment=12839455

(9)    Posted December 1, 2023
https://boards.cgccomics.com/topic/492270-post-your-promise-collection-wins/?do=findComment&comment=13011367

(10) Posted March 4, 2023
https://boards.cgccomics.com/topic/492270-post-your-promise-collection-wins/?do=findComment&comment=13116851

Great context.   Thanks.    

[buttock]

On 3/8/2024 at 1:14 PM, MasterChief said:

The collection of data began as an idea to look under the hood of Promise Collection initial sales and subsequent short-term liquidations to get an appreciation of how pre-marketing and follow-on post initial auction advertising hype, delivered by Heritage, CGC, independent media, and social media may have led to and drove the FOMO phenomenon and irrational exuberance. It was not meant to be a barometer of the GA market. With regard to FOMO, there were many discussions and analogies made here on these boards (and elsewhere) comparing the Church Collection to the Promise Collection while underscoring how collectors missed out on a windfall of gains if they were unwilling to pay Rozanski’s Church prices at the time. Thus the apparent “pump” was not to miss the boat with buying a piece, or many pieces as some seemingly did, of the Promise Collection. Not saying that kind of talk led to the FOMO phenomenon in totality or captivated any one individual in particular, but when coupled with catchy and enticing sales and marketing phrases such as those that follow, which are only a very few used to promote the collection, it may be hard to say that collectively they didn’t have an effect:

“An amazing story of how a brother’s promise to protect a fallen veteran’s treasure trove of Golden Age Comics could be worth $10 million decades later”

“A collection of Golden Age comic books in pristine condition”

“it’s “the highest-quality pedigree collection, book for book, to debut in our hobby in the last 25 years”

“books that haven’t seen the light of day since they were purchased off newsstands in the 1940s”

“The collection’s depth and scope is almost unparalleled”

“Put simply, The Promise Collection will go down in history as one of the greatest comic-book finds of all time”

*****

 

I'm trying to phrase this politely because I'm not wanting to be antagonistic.  But I'm not sure what the alternative would have been to promoting the collection.  And the particular phrases you highlighted are all very accurate, and to a degree understated.  I think en toto the collection broke $25M, so estimating it at 40% seems like the opposite of hype.   

[Badger]

On 3/6/2024 at 1:48 AM, lou_fine said:

Thanks once again to @MasterChief for keeping this chart up-to-date for all of us boardies here.  

What I find interesting here is that out of the total of 322 Promise Collection books resold to date so far, comprised of 318 initially graded and slabbed with only 4 of them initially sold raw, there has been a total of only 6 regrades to date (i.e. 5 upgardes and 1 downgrade).  Not sure what the percentage of regrades that normally takes place with CGC certified books that are sent back into the marketplace for resale, but if we are to believe all of the hype and talk here about CPR, then I would guess that the percentage of books sent in for regrading is substantially higher than the 1.88% (i.e. 6 regrades out of 318 certified books) that we are seeing here with the Promise resales.  

If this Promise Collection 1.88% resub/regrade rate is substantially below the normal percentage of books that undergo the CPR process before they are resold, it's certainly saying something about the perception of the grading that took place for the Promise books.  

Maybe. It could also mean that every last grade bump has been squeezed out of these books and there is nothing left to CPR. "That is a dead parrot!", as they say.

[MasterChief]

On 3/8/2024 at 10:38 AM, buttock said:

I'm trying to phrase this politely because I'm not wanting to be antagonistic.  But I'm not sure what the alternative would have been to promoting the collection.  And the particular phrases you highlighted are all very accurate, and to a degree understated.  I think en toto the collection broke $25M, so estimating it at 40% seems like the opposite of hype. 

Thanks for the response. We may have to agree to disagree as to the added emphasis above. That said, a few comments to the pre-marketing and follow-on-post-initial-auction phrase claims clipped from the web:

“An amazing story of how a brother’s promise to protect a fallen veteran’s treasure trove of Golden Age Comics could be worth $10 million decades later”
(This is a Heritage pre-auction estimate. So, yes, the ultimate realization was astounding. But the “story” falls flat. Without story validation and provenance verification, it's just that. A story, a hobby fairy tale. No sense in re-discussing the alleged truth behind it again. That will only result in another thread derailment.)

“A collection of Golden Age comic books in pristine condition”
(Pristine? Perhaps for many books but certainly not all, as the statement implies. Pristine is defined as “clean and fresh as if new; spotless.” Many examples have been posted on these boards and elsewhere that are the exact opposite of pristine. And that’s not to mention the fact that maximization took place for targets of opportunity during certification.)

“it’s “the highest-quality pedigree collection, book for book, to debut in our hobby in the last 25 years”
(No comment. I’ll let the pedigree experts debate the merit of this statement against all pedigrees of the time frame referred to regardless of category age)

“books that haven’t seen the light of day since they were purchased off newsstands in the 1940s”
(This statement is laughable if not insulting to the collector who viewed Heritage scans with an objective eye. And that’s not to mention the purported account that the books were actually bagged and boarded in ~2001 after the brother’s death)

“The collection’s depth and scope is almost unparalleled”
(I’ll let those that debate such things argue the merit of that claim)

“Put simply, The Promise Collection will go down in history as one of the greatest comic-book finds of all time”
(Agreed)

Edited March 9 by MasterChief

[DC#]

On 3/8/2024 at 3:52 PM, MasterChief said:

Thanks for the response. We may have to agree to disagree as to the added emphasis above. That said, a few comments to the pre-marketing and follow-on-post-initial-auction phrase claims clipped form the web:

“An amazing story of how a brother’s promise to protect a fallen veteran’s treasure trove of Golden Age Comics could be worth $10 million decades later”
(This is a Heritage pre-auction estimate. So, yes, the ultimate realization was astounding. But the “story” falls flat. Without story validation and provenance verification, it's just that. A story, a hobby fairy tale. No sense in re-discussing the alleged truth behind it again. That will only result in another thread derailment.)

“A collection of Golden Age comic books in pristine condition”
(Pristine? Perhaps for many books but certainly not all, as the statement implies. Pristine is defined as “clean and fresh as if new; spotless.” Many examples have been posted on these boards and elsewhere that are the exact opposite of pristine. And that’s not to mention the fact that maximization took place for targets of opportunity during certification.)

“it’s “the highest-quality pedigree collection, book for book, to debut in our hobby in the last 25 years”
(No comment. I’ll let the pedigree experts debate the merit of this statements against all pedigrees of the time frame referred to regardless of category age)

“books that haven’t seen the light of day since they were purchased off newsstands in the 1940s”
(This statement is laughable if not insulting to the collector who viewed Heritage scans with an objective eye. And that’s not to mention the purported account that the books were actually bagged and boarded in ~2001 after the brother’s death)

“The collection’s depth and scope is almost unparalleled”
(I let those that debate such things argue the merit of that statement)

“Put simply, The Promise Collection will go down in history as one of the greatest comic-book finds of all time”
(Agreed)

Don't let this lowly Silver guy (me) creep over here and stir up trouble!        

[lou_fine]

On 3/8/2024 at 12:14 PM, MasterChief said:

With regard to FOMO, there were many discussions and analogies made here on these boards (and elsewhere) comparing the Church Collection to the Promise Collection while underscoring how collectors missed out on a windfall of gains if they were unwilling to pay Rozanski’s Church prices at the time. Thus the apparent “pump” was not to miss the boat with buying a piece, or many pieces as some seemingly did, of the Promise Collection. Not saying that kind of talk led to the FOMO phenomenon in totality or captivated any one individual in particular, but when coupled with catchy and enticing sales and marketing phrases such as those that follow, which are only a very few used to promote the collection, it may be hard to say that collectively they didn’t have an effect:

Totally agree with your POV here that with the tone of the Heritage interviews when the Promise Collection was first released, I got the impression there were clear and distinct implications being made that the Promise Collection was comparable to the Church Collection.  Although I am sure that everybody has a different opinion on what took place, but I found this comparison to be rather absurb and really more hype than anything else with the sole purpose being to drive the resulting prices higher which they were more than successfully able to do.    

From my own personal point of view, if you really wanted to compare the Promise Collection to another comic book pedigree, then I would say that the Big Apple Collection, albeit in much higher condition grade, is a much better comparison.  Especially when you consider the pre-dominant time period and pretty much no-name titles that the bulk of the Promise Collection encompassed which missed out on that entire early key GA years time period through to 1943 that the Church Collection is so noted and remembered for.  

Then again, how much hype can an auction house generate if it makes the claim that their newest collection is comparable to a high end version of the Big Apple Collection, as comparing it to the highly desired and unique Church Collection even though it didn't have A SINGLE ONE of the key early GA Church books in reasonable condition.  By the second go round of resales, it was like the marketplace had finally come around to recognized the possibility that the emperor had no clothes.    

Edited March 9 by lou_fine

[Cat-Man_America]

On 3/9/2024 at 12:03 AM, lou_fine said:

Totally agree with your POV here that with the tone of the Heritage interviews when the Promise Collection was first released, I got the impression there were clear and distinct implications being made that the Promise Collection was comparable to the Church Collection.  Although I am sure that everybody has a different opinion on what took place, but I found this comparison to be rather absurb and really more hype than anything else with the sole purpose being to drive the resulting prices higher which they were more than successfully able to do.    

From my own personal point of view, if you really wanted to compare the Promise Collection to another comic book pedigree, then I would say that the Big Apple Collection, albeit in much higher condition grade, is a much better comparison.  Especially when you consider the pre-dominant time period and pretty much no-name titles that the bulk of the Promise Collection encompassed which missed out on that entire early key GA years time period through to 1943 that the Church Collection is so noted and remembered for.  

Then again, how much hype can an auction house generate if it makes the claim that their newest collection is comparable to a high end version of the Big Apple Collection, as comparing it to the highly desired and unique Church Collection even though it didn't have A SINGLE ONE of the key early GA Church books in reasonable condition.  By the second go round of resales, it was like the marketplace had finally come around to recognized the possibility that the emperor had no clothes.    

Sadly, looking back on it, the Promise Collection story sure seems like a perfect storm of hyperbole. The brother's tale and mystery certainly added to the heavy buzz around these books, but as a collection I'm not persuaded that this pedigree or the high grade opinions can be compared to the quality of Church and San Francisco/Riley pedigree books.

Was the Promise Collection overhyped? That isn't for me to say. Retrospective sales results suggest there was one helluva hangover following the first drunken orgy of bidding.

I've said it before, I'm happy with the few books from this collection I've won, but I didn't go BID-crazy. The first book cost a little more than expected, but the second and third books were in line with the budget I'd set aside for them.

Edited March 9 by Cat-Man_America
Ale!

[Robot Man]

On 3/8/2024 at 10:03 PM, lou_fine said:

Totally agree with your POV here that with the tone of the Heritage interviews when the Promise Collection was first released, I got the impression there were clear and distinct implications being made that the Promise Collection was comparable to the Church Collection.  Although I am sure that everybody has a different opinion on what took place, but I found this comparison to be rather absurb and really more hype than anything else with the sole purpose being to drive the resulting prices higher which they were more than successfully able to do.    

From my own personal point of view, if you really wanted to compare the Promise Collection to another comic book pedigree, then I would say that the Big Apple Collection, albeit in much higher condition grade, is a much better comparison.  Especially when you consider the pre-dominant time period and pretty much no-name titles that the bulk of the Promise Collection encompassed which missed out on that entire early key GA years time period through to 1943 that the Church Collection is so noted and remembered for.  

Then again, how much hype can an auction house generate if it makes the claim that their newest collection is comparable to a high end version of the Big Apple Collection, as comparing it to the highly desired and unique Church Collection even though it didn't have A SINGLE ONE of the key early GA Church books in reasonable condition.  By the second go round of resales, it was like the marketplace had finally come around to recognized the possibility that the emperor had no clothes.    

There is the Church collection and the rest are all contenders to the throne…

[Cat-Man_America]

On 3/9/2024 at 9:27 AM, Robot Man said:

There is the Church collection and the rest are all contenders to the throne…

Each pedigree collection has pluses and minuses. IMO, Church is the best and among the most perfect examples of a discovered collection.  Church has all of the checked boxes, ...depth of numbers, key appearances, exceptional condition (covers and PQ), ideal preservation/storage conditions (which contributes to future longevity), easily recognizable albeit unobtrusive pedigree/distribution date markings, great background story that's fully verifiable, tight 3rd party grading, etc.

So, rhetorically speaking, where does the Promise Collection fall along the pedigree continuum? With no bias whatsoever, my personal assessment is it's way down the list. Granted, the Promise Collection has the numbers, but not a lot of key first appearances; while the overall condition of books as graded is high there's been debate over whether the assigned grades actually meet expectations, the question of storage is iffier, anecdotal and unverifiable, identifier markings vary, original owner story sounds almost too good to be true (and remains questionable as parts of it are unsubstantiated), and so on. This doesn't make the collection any less desirable, but it does provide significant caveats about the hype that resulted in fizzling skyrocket market values. 

Those of us who own Promise Collection books should not see this as a denouncement of the pedigree, but rather see it as a cautionary about "fever-bidding" and the predictable feeding frenzy over newly anointed pedigree collections parsed out into a hungry marketplace via a series of carefully orchestrated auctions under a cloud of hyperbole, mystique and muddled facts. That's my two cents; the caffeine influencer was included at no extra charge! 

Edited March 9 by Cat-Man_America
Ale of a good pedigree!