How rare are modern newsstand editions? 6 6

[Lazyboy]

On 1/24/2022 at 5:29 PM, valiantman said:

What percentage of the extant copies does he own?  Markets are usually comprised of about 10% (or less) of extant copies changing hands each year (unless it's the first year after release). 

If the buyer you know is somewhere in the other 90% that never comes to market, he has no impact on the market value and if his supply is single issues, he has no potential to impact the market value.

I wasn't talking about him affecting market value, just saying he's buying (at whatever amount above cover price) for his collection and not in expectation of any future value ("unless the intent is to benefit in the secondary market later").

[valiantman]

On 1/24/2022 at 5:28 PM, Lazyboy said:

You implied that it was because of nearly everybody treating comics as disposable entertainment, not multiple unusual mass-attrition events that haven't been an issue since then.

That's fair, but you continue imply that all discussion of newsstands is a manipulation by hucksters, sometimes when the only discussion occurring at the time of your rant is from me or @paqart.

Are you suggesting readers will assume your comments aren't directed toward me or paqart?

Edited January 24, 2022 by valiantman

[valiantman]

On 1/24/2022 at 5:34 PM, Lazyboy said:

I wasn't talking about him affecting market value, just saying he's buying (at whatever amount above cover price) for his collection and not in expectation of any future value ("unless the intent is to benefit in the secondary market later").

When just he gives them away someday, you'll have a complete point that's valid.  Otherwise, his current refusal to sell does not preclude his eventual "intent to benefit in the secondary market later".

Edited January 24, 2022 by valiantman

[Lazyboy]

On 1/24/2022 at 5:38 PM, valiantman said:

When just he gives them away someday, you'll have a complete point that's valid.  Otherwise, his currently refusal to sell does not preclude his eventual "intent to benefit in the secondary market later".

There is no intent. But I'm pretty sure he's not immortal, so they will obviously be passed on at some point, one way or another. Hopefully not to the dump... but then again, he does still buy Marvels for some reason.

[WoWitHurts]

On 1/24/2022 at 4:50 PM, paqart said:

I've been thinking about this in the context of Indiegogo and Kickstarter projects for a couple of years now. I wanted to get Graham Nolan's Monster Island but it was offered at about the time I moved from the Netherlands to the United States. I figured I'd pick it up at a comic book store after the move. At the time, it didn't occur to me that comic book stores wouldn't have it. I thought I had a shot at it today when Graham offered three books in one on Indiegogo (I contributed to one of the stories). I bought the bundle, only to discover Monster Island wasn't included.
It may be that these never become popular enough for the prices to rise because their distribution pattern is so different from other comics. However, there are a number of well-known creators self-publishing their work and distributing straight to the customer in quantities large enough to be profitable to the creator, but smaller than would be necessary to be profitable for a traditional publisher. The combination of lower print runs, invisible distribution, and slow leaks to the market, make me wonder if these have serious investment potential. That said, I would expect comics in this category to be well-preserved in most cases.

Some of those kickstarter’s have tiny print runs. Imagine an umbrella academy type of book get a tv show or something and there are only hundreds of a book.

[Lazyboy]

On 1/24/2022 at 5:36 PM, valiantman said:

That's fair, but you continue imply that all discussion of newsstands is a manipulation by hucksters, at times when the only discussion occurring at the time of your rant is from me or @paqart.

Are you suggesting readers will assume your comments aren't directed toward me or paqart?

I don't imply that all discussion is manipulation by hucksters, I just say that it is impossible to separate the true market from the concerted manipulation campaign(s). But I'm quite fine with people assuming my comments are directed at paqart, even if that's not really my intention. I'll usually respond very specifically to anything you post that I find objectionable. If people can't distinguish general from specific, that's... well, unfortunately, not surprising.

[paqart]

On 1/24/2022 at 6:55 PM, WoWitHurts said:

Some of those kickstarter’s have tiny print runs. Imagine an umbrella academy type of book get a tv show or something and there are only hundreds of a book.

Right. I still remember the day in 1984 when I was offered 10 copies of Love & Rockets #0, the black and white ashcan edition, for $10 apiece. If subsequent issues had been published the same way, the ashcans likely would have never appreciated in value. Because the Hernandez brothers switched to Fantagraphics and became popular there, the ashcans became very valuable.

I'm still waiting for the day my Dr. Andy #1 becomes a collector's item. It had a tiny print run in 1992 or so and it was the last comic I made until last year. Ironically, while the comic was a self-parody, I didn't intend to actually become a scientist with a PhD like the character in the comic. However, I did. To celebrate, I decided to make Dr. Andy #2. I have it all laid out but it isn't finished yet. I got stuck between having my wife pencil and ink it, or me. She is a great cartoonist but I think I'd be faster.

Edited January 25, 2022 by paqart

[divad]

On 1/24/2022 at 1:23 PM, valiantman said:

Everyone has access to eBay, Facebook, instagram, etc. Anyone, anywhere, can pull books, toys, games, whatever, out of the closet and sell them online today.  They've been able to do so for years.  If the newsstands exist, we'd be seeing them.

This statement is so freakin' naive and privileged . . . I think you've lost Your marbles.

[divad]

On 1/22/2022 at 8:13 PM, paqart said:

Again, the explanation is less important than observations of variability among near date issues.

Clearly, you are smarter than the rest of us.

[divad]

On 1/24/2022 at 2:08 PM, valiantman said:

How about giving us an estimate?  What percentage of surviving copies of a book like New Avengers #27 (2007) do you believe are newsstand editions?

Should I post my copy? 

[divad]

On 1/24/2022 at 2:32 PM, paqart said:

On a whim, I just looked up sold copies of New Avengers #27 on eBay. Of the total 170 items that had a clear photo of the UPC box, 4 were newsstands. The ratio, therefore, is 1:42, or 2.4%. That is very close to @valiantman's estimate. I wouldn't be surprised that the ratio is closer to 1:50 but there weren't enough sold copies to determine if that was true.

On a whim, you know that data is only for the last 60 or 90 days, right? It's meaningless  . . . unless you are a seller looking for a reason to charge a premium. Period. 

[divad]

On 1/24/2022 at 3:36 PM, valiantman said:

Are you suggesting readers will assume your comments aren't directed toward me or paqart?

I would suggest that all of the opposing comments are directed towards both of you. 

[paqart]

On 1/24/2022 at 9:43 PM, divad said:

On a whim, you know that data is only for the last 60 or 90 days, right? It's meaningless  . . . unless you are a seller looking for a reason to charge a premium. Period. 

I do know it is for the last 60-90 days. How is that meaningless? It means 170 copies were sold in that time period, 4 of which were newsstand editions. That is a sufficient sample size in days and copies sold to determine that NA#27 is not as common as 1:10. There were about 130,000 copies of this comic ordered according to Comichron in the initial month of orders. For that population size, to have about 90% confidence with a 5% margin of error, you'd need a sample size of 271. However, if we assume that newsstand editions are an additional 10% (13,000 copies), then the population size is 143,000. For calculations like this, there is no practical difference between 50,000 and 1,000,000 units. Meaning, the sample size needed for anything in that range for a 90% confidence interval and 5% margin of error is between about 265-275

170 copies is adequate for 80% confidence and a 5% margin of error. This is one of the limitations of the marketplace that must be taken into account when attempting to estimate rarity ratios. In this case, the numbers don't fit a 1:10 or 1:20 ratio. If looked at as availability on any given day, the ratio goes down to 1:15 if it was listed once every 15 days over 60 days but the more important factor is how long it took to sell these copies. If they were all sold within an hour, then each of those days would have to be multiplied by 24 to come up with actual market availability. You don't have one chance a day if none of them remained available for a full day. I recall missing two copies of Hulk #1 that way. I got an alert on my phone that a copy went up for sale, logged in to buy it, but it sold before the transaction was completed. Total time elapsed, about 15 minutes. In that case, you'd have to divide the hours by four, so the formula for market availability would look like this: 4*24*60 or 4*24*90. That range would be 1:5760-1:8640, assuming they appeared as often in that window as NA27.

I just checked sold items for Hulk (2008) #1. There were 121 copies offered for sale. None were newsstand editions. The direct print run was similar to NA27, about 130k, so its confidence level is 80% with a 6% margin of error with a sample size of 121. It isn't enough to establish that it is more common than non-existent but it is enough to establish that it is less common than 1:121 with 80% confidence and a 6% margin of error. I should mention that this finding is quite different from a year ago, when I could usually find one or two copies in any 60-90 day "sold" window. Finding zero copies as the price goes up indicates to me that these are simultaneously more desirable and less available.

 

Edited January 25, 2022 by paqart

[valiantman]

On 1/24/2022 at 9:24 PM, paqart said:

I do know it is for the last 60-90 days. How is that meaningless? It means 170 copies were sold in that time period, 4 of which were newsstand editions. That is a sufficient sample size in days and copies sold to determine that NA#27 is not as common as 1:10. There were about 130,000 copies of this comic ordered according to Comichron in the initial month of orders. For that population size, to have about 90% confidence with a 5% margin of error, you'd need a sample size of 271. However, if we assume that newsstand editions are an additional 10% (13,000 copies), then the population size is 143,000. For calculations like this, there is no practical difference between 50,000 and 1,000,000 units. Meaning, the sample size needed for anything in that range for a 90% confidence interval and 5% margin of error is between about 265-275

170 copies is adequate for 80% confidence and a 5% margin of error. This is one of the limitations of the marketplace that must be taken into account when attempting to estimate rarity ratios. In this case, the numbers don't fit a 1:10 or 1:20 ratio. If looked at as availability on any given day, the ratio goes down to 1:15 if it was listed once every 15 days over 60 days but the more important factor is how long it took to sell these copies. If they were all sold within an hour, then each of those days would have to be multiplied by 24 to come up with actual market availability. You don't have one chance a day if none of them remained available for a full day. I recall missing two copies of Hulk #1 that way. I got an alert on my phone that a copy went up for sale, logged in to buy it, but it sold before the transaction was completed. Total time elapsed, about 15 minutes. In that case, you'd have to divide the hours by four, so the formula for market availability would look like this: 4*24*60 or 4*24*90. That range would be 1:5760-1:8640, assuming they appeared as often in that window as NA27.

I just checked sold items for Hulk (2008) #1. There were 121 copies offered for sale. None were newsstand editions. The direct print run was similar to NA27, about 130k, so its confidence level is 80% with a 6% margin of error with a sample size of 121. It isn't enough to establish that it is more common than non-existent but it is enough to establish that it is less common than 1:121 with 80% confidence and a 6% margin of error. I should mention that this finding is quite different from a year ago, when I could usually find one or two copies in any 60-90 day "sold" window. Finding zero copies as the price goes up indicates to me that these are simultaneously more desirable and less available.

Divad will be back to respond to this post by ignoring every point you've made, just as soon as he finishes selling some books from one of his accounts to one of his other accounts and posting the "sales" records on the board. 

[divad]

On 1/24/2022 at 6:37 PM, divad said:

On 1/22/2022 at 8:13 PM, paqart said:

Again, the explanation is less important than observations of variability among near date issues.

Clearly, you are smarter than the rest of us.

I guess you skipped over this one. 

Let me give you an example of real life. I have a friend who is a collector. Like many private collectors, he is very personal about what he collects. He talks to almost no one about his collection or his collecting habits. He let it slip out one day in our often brief but frequent "conversations" that he figured he had quite a few more comics than I did (seeing my garage, which is about 75% of my collection.) He said he had more boxes than I did, but that all of his were long boxes - which puts his collection at about 90,000 or so comics (probably higher.) From our conversations, which frankly I enjoy very much, I have discovered he knows very little about what we here, call the "marketplace." I am sure that each of you know someone like this, as I have known several (as in many) eclectic collectors. How on Earth do you not acknowledge and account for these collectors and their collections?

[divad]

On 1/24/2022 at 7:34 PM, valiantman said:

Divad will be back to respond to this post by ignoring every point you've made, just as soon as he finishes selling some books from one of his accounts to one of his other accounts and posting the "sales" records on the board. 

I understand your sense of humor and I am not offended.  But you did beat me to the the punch. 

[valiantman]

On 1/24/2022 at 8:33 PM, divad said:

On 1/24/2022 at 3:23 PM, valiantman said:

Everyone has access to eBay, Facebook, instagram, etc. Anyone, anywhere, can pull books, toys, games, whatever, out of the closet and sell them online today.  They've been able to do so for years.  If the newsstands exist, we'd be seeing them.

This statement is so freakin' naive and privileged . . . I think you've lost Your marbles.

This statement is so freakin' illogical and short-sighted . . . I doubt if you ever had marbles.

You're suggesting that the people who do not have access to eBay, Facebook, or instagram (and there certainly are some) are THE SAME PEOPLE who own many newsstand editions of comic books they're just not able to list online?

 

[divad]

On 1/24/2022 at 7:39 PM, valiantman said:

This statement is so freakin' illogical and short-sighted . . . I doubt if you ever had marbles.

You're suggesting that the people who do not have access to eBay, Facebook, or instagram (and there certainly are some) are THE SAME PEOPLE who own many newsstand editions of comic books they're just not able to list online?

 

Perhaps you should pause a bit before you post your knee-jerk reactions to what I've written.

[valiantman]

I don't have access to the internet, but if you'll take a look at my vast holdings of newsstand editions, you'll see that I'm just an ordinary eccentric personality like you find in Anytown, USA.

 

Yeah, let's not forget to include those people in the calculations.

[valiantman]

On 1/24/2022 at 9:24 PM, paqart said:

Finding zero copies as the price goes up indicates to me that these are simultaneously more desirable and less available.

Exactly.  Even a beater copy of Ultimate Fallout #4 Newsstand would now sell for $1,000+.  There are none available in any grade.  They exist, but the ratio to direct editions is ridiculously low.