How rare are modern newsstand editions? 6 6

[Lazyboy]

On 1/20/2022 at 1:58 PM, patman2011 said:

That is kinda telling in my eyes if the variant literally sold at the same ratio in which it was supposedly initially distributed which was 1:25. 

Fixed. A lot more of the variants were released later. It's just a coincidence that the number of CGC'd copies... that sold in one year... through venues that report to GPA... line up with the ordering ratio.

On 1/20/2022 at 1:58 PM, patman2011 said:

Hard to believe that the newsstand is as rare as 1:267

Yes. Like literally impossible to believe.

On 1/20/2022 at 1:58 PM, patman2011 said:

but numbers don't lie

Numbers may not lie, but how they're chosen and used can be very misleading.

On 1/20/2022 at 1:58 PM, patman2011 said:

and a whole year is a pretty good indicator I would think.

Not really.

[djzombi]

On 1/17/2022 at 7:30 PM, darkstar said:

But not every Barnes and Noble had the same titles or allocation. 

Also, how many of those copies ended up in the hands of collectors?  Unbought newsstand books were returned to the publisher after a couple of months.  
So, just because B&N stores in total had, say, 500 copies (making that number up), that doesn't mean that all 500 ended up in collections.  Far from it, I would say.  

Additionally, I've seen what B&N magazine stands look like.  Good luck getting a 9.8 there, chump.  

Edited January 21, 2022 by djzombi

[Pittsburgh]

I LOVE finding newsstands from 2000 and on.  I, while I love the dedication, find it hard to put actual percentages or ratios on them when absolute numbers are not known.  I also find it hard to believe that there are cases of newsstand editions waiting to be found.  Of course there's a chance, but it does not deserve to be part of the argument because it is also unknown.

From personal experience as a 20-year military man and comic collector, I have travelled quite a bit and finding newsstands in back issue bins at an LCS is rare FOR ME.  I'll gladly pay a higher price for a high-grade newsstand compared to a high-grade direct edition but I'm probably in the minority.  After all, who wouldn't want a face-palming Spidey in the little box than an ugly barcode?  

Comics, regardless of direct/newsstand/variant/grade, will ALWAYS show their face at some point.  I'll continue the hunt for newsstands and at this point, I'm perfectly fine with mid-grade copies.

[paqart]

On 1/20/2022 at 2:58 PM, patman2011 said:

That is kinda telling in my eyes if the variant literally sold at the same ratio in which it was supposedly distributed which was 1:25.  Hard to believe that the newsstand is as rare as 1:267 but numbers don't lie and a whole year is a pretty good indicator I would think.  Unless someone comes across a stash of newsstands at an old bookstore it looks like the numbers the UF4 get are more than justified and might even be a little low.

This makes me want to ask the people on this board, how aggressively are you looking for newsstands? Or put another way, how many comics do you estimate you review every week or month? Of those, how many are newsstands? Of those, how many are the newsstands you are looking for? 

I have a hard time believing that I'm in the minority of collectors here who has noticed that the guesstimate 1:100 ratio newsstands to directs is, if anything, low for many moderns. I understand that some scoff at this notion but we know who you are and what you think, so you needn't reply. It seems pretty silly to defend the notion that these comics can't possibly be as rare as 1:100 when they can't be found at all, or in ratios closer to 1:200 or 1:500. 

My experience is that I will often buy newsstands that I'm not looking for because I see them and the ones I want aren't available. The idea is that I can trade them later for what I do want. That said, the issues that are on my want list can take a long time to find. When I started looking for these almost three years ago, the comics at the top of my list were:

ASM #606, 607, 611

Catwoman #1-4

DD #111

Hulk (1999) #92

Hulk (2008) #1, 15, 16

New Avengers #11, 27

Wolverine #66, 67

Over the years, I've found all but 2 of those comics, but one of the ones I found, I didn't buy because of price (ASM #611) I haven't seen another since then. Also, the copies of New Avengers #11 and 27, Hulk #15 and 16, and DD#111 are not in the greatest condition (7.0-8.0). I'm still looking for better copies but have only seen one, a CGC 9.8 Hulk 16 that sold for about $800 (I bid up to $205 and a couple other guys on this board bid slightly higher but didn't get it either). None of these appeared right away. It isn't as if I went out with my shopping list, found these immediately, and stopped looking. 
I spotted the Wolverine #67 first, after a few weeks of looking. The Hulk #1 came next, after looking for about 8 months. After that, I think it was the ASM #606-607, bought together, after about a year of looking. The New Avengers #27 was found just a couple weeks ago after looking for just under three years. I have multiple copies of the NS Catwoman #2 and 4, but have never seen #1 or 3.

The difference I see between these and other comics is that I can find practically any other comic from the Silver, Bronze, Copper, and modern age without difficulty whenever I want it. If I wanted a CGC-graded copy of Marvel Premiere #1 right now, I could probably find one in ten minutes or less. I just tested that, found a couple in seconds. Even some "rare" Golden Age comics can be found pretty easily, such as Four Color V2 #9 (first Carl Barks Donald Duck). I found two of those in 9.0 condition in the same week, I just found 8 of these in a few seconds, though not in the greatest condition. That was published 1942 but I still can't find one copy of the newsstand Daredevil #111 (first Lady Bullseye) in the same condition. Even if you ignore condition, they don't appear for sale that often relative to the number of direct editions of the same comic are offered.

My gut feeling on this is that actual rarity varies by year, title, and individual issues (like ASM #300 is more common in NS than ASM #316). Condition also seems to vary by title. For whatever reason, certain titles seem better preserved than others, possibly because sell-outs of popular issues at comic book stores led to collectors buying those issues at the newsstand. So, this is my vey rough idea of what the real rarity is. This is gut feeling only, done without looking at any of the research I've done on this:

Marvel/DC newsstands 1980's in mid or low grades: anywhere from 1:1 to 1:4, depending on title and issue

Marvel/DC newsstands 1980's in high grade: anywhere from 1:10 to 1:25, depending on title and issue

Marvel Canadian newsstands 1980's in mid or low grades: 1:20 

DC Canadian newsstands 1980's in mid or low grades: 1:30 

Marvel Canadian newsstands 1980's in high grades: 1:50

DC Canadian newsstands 1980's in high grades: 1:75

Marvel/DC newsstands 1990's in grades up to 7.5: 1:15-1:25

Marvel/DC newsstands 1990's in grades 8.0 and up: 1:25-1:40 (with exception of high-volume comics like ASM #300, which are closer to 1:1)

Marvel newsstand 1999-2002: 1:30 overall. In high grade, 1:40

Marvel 1999-2000 price variants: 1:2,000-1:5,000

DC newsstand 1999-2002: 1:15 overall

Marvel/DC newsstand 2003-2005: 1:50 - 1:75

Marvel/DC newsstand 2006-2008: 1:100-1:1000

Marvel newsstand 2009-2010: 1:100

DC newsstand 2009-2010: 1:200

Marvel newsstand 2011-2013: 1:75

DC newsstand 2011-2017: 1:100

Valiant newsstands, all years: 1:300

Archie newsstands 1999-2010: 1:5-1:20

Image newsstands 1990-1999: 1:5-1:10

This list is for finding any newsstand in each of these categories, not for finding specific issues. In other words, if you don't care which newsstand published by Marvel in 2002 you buy, you will find one in about the ratios I just estimated. If you do care which title it comes from or which issue it is, the ratios get higher. In other words, if you're just vacuuming up newsstands indiscriminately, you'll have much better luck than if you are trying to complete a run or find certain key issues. That could lead to the incorrect impression that these are more common than they are.

For instance, if the ratio for any issue of a ten issue run is 1:20 but you don't care which issue you get, you have a pretty good chance of finding at least one of them in a group of 100 listings. If you want only issue five, you may not find it in the same group of 100 comics.

Due to the difficulty of finding these things, I am much less willing to sell or trade them than I would have been otherwise. The way I look at it, if I sell one, I may never see it again. Someone on this board offered me a quick 500% profit on a couple of these comics, another offered 250%, both within days of the purchase, but I didn't sell because if I did, that might be the last I see of these. On that basis, I offer the following: there likely are hoards of newsstands out there in collections like mine. However, I am probably not the only person who has decided to hang onto the comics, to not release them into the market, due to awareness of how difficult it would be to reassemble the group. We know there are collectors on this thread with fairly large collections of newsstands (I have about 2,500). That doesn't mean these are going to be dropped into the market and thus make them common. Even if we did, there likely wouldn't be enough copies to make them common. If I put my whole collection on eBay today, it would make a few issues look more common that they are (like ASM V2 #30, which I have at least 8x copies of), but they'd be gone in a week and the market would be right back where it started. Also, those 8 copies would still be a small minority of the direct editions of the same comic that are available at any given time.

[valiantman]

On 1/22/2022 at 11:17 AM, paqart said:

For whatever reason, certain titles seem better preserved than others, possibly because sell-outs of popular issues at comic book stores led to collectors buying those issues at the newsstand.

This is the factor that has more impact that any other.  ASM #361 is almost common in newsstand, even in high grade, because collectors who didn't get enough direct editions bought them at the newsstand. Those newsstands were treated like direct editions, protected like direct editions, and kept by serious collectors.

Because of this collector activity at the newsstand, we have plenty of ASM #361 newsstands today.

The same is true of Amazing Spider-Man v2 #36 - the all black 9/11 tribute issue.  The newsstand edition (with the barcode on the front) is much more common than any other Marvel newsstand issue from that timeframe. 

2021 had 184 sales of CGC 9.4 or higher on GPAnalysis for ASM v2 #36. 167 were direct editions, 17 were newsstand, for a 1:10 ratio vs. direct edition.

Direct edition collectors heading over to newsstands "back-in-the-day" and buying them up has resulted in newsstands today which are 4 times more common than if the direct edition collectors had ignored them (like every other newsstand issue).

[paqart]

On 1/22/2022 at 1:29 PM, valiantman said:

This is the factor that has more impact that any other.  ASM #361 is almost common in newsstand, even in high grade, because collectors who didn't get enough direct editions bought them at the newsstand. Those newsstands were treated like direct editions, protected like direct editions, and kept by serious collectors.

Because of this collector activity at the newsstand, we have plenty of ASM #361 newsstands today.

The same is true of Amazing Spider-Man v2 #36 - the all black 9/11 tribute issue.  The newsstand edition (with the barcode on the front) is much more common than any other Marvel newsstand issue from that timeframe. 

2021 had 184 sales of CGC 9.4 or higher on GPAnalysis for ASM v2 #36. 167 were direct editions, 17 were newsstand, for a 1:10 ratio vs. direct edition.

Direct edition collectors heading over to newsstands "back-in-the-day" and buying them up has resulted in newsstands today which are 4 times more common than if the direct edition collectors had ignored them (like every other newsstand issue).

Indeed. (or as they say in the Netherlands, "inderdaad"). This is why I shifted my newsstand focus from Spider-Man to titles like Supergirl and Catwoman. I am always on the lookout for Hulks (1999 and 2008 series) thanks to their relatively low print run/high prominence in the MCU, and a few others. For the most part, I am trying to find comics that were purchased primarily at comic book stores. Those titles are ridiculously hard to find as newsstands (try to find any issue of the mid-2000's Jonah Hex in newsstand, for instance). BTW, I have written a few papers for peer-reviewed scientific journals and am considering writing something about this phenomenon (estimating available quantities based on imperfect data). 

Edited January 22, 2022 by paqart

[divad]

On 1/22/2022 at 10:51 AM, paqart said:

This is why I shifted my newsstand focus from Spider-Man to titles like Supergirl and Catwoman.

I agree that these are both worthy endeavors.

[divad]

On 1/22/2022 at 10:29 AM, valiantman said:

On 1/22/2022 at 9:17 AM, paqart said:

For whatever reason, certain titles seem better preserved than others, possibly because sell-outs of popular issues at comic book stores led to collectors buying those issues at the newsstand.

 

Hogwash is the term that applies here . . .  Well, except for the five or six dealers who post here regularly and swear to it. 

[paqart]

On 1/22/2022 at 10:31 PM, divad said:

Hogwash is the term that applies here . . .  Well, except for the five or six dealers who post here regularly and swear to it. 

If that's the case, the phenomenon remains. Some issues, very close in date, are much more common than others as newsstand editions. Spider-man #238 and #316 are both less common than ASM 300, just as ASM #700 is more common than #699 and almost every other issue all the way back to #601. Even ASM 298, 299, and 301 are less common than #300. Maybe they just increased the number of copies sent to newsstands, assuming you're right. Again, the explanation is less important than observations of variability among near date issues.

[ADAMANTIUM]

On 1/22/2022 at 11:17 AM, paqart said:

This makes me want to ask the people on this board, how aggressively are you looking for newsstands? Or put another way, how many comics do you estimate you review every week or month? Of those, how many are newsstands? Of those, how many are the newsstands you are looking for? 

I have a hard time believing that I'm in the minority of collectors here who has noticed that the guesstimate 1:100 ratio newsstands to directs is, if anything, low for many moderns. I understand that some scoff at this notion but we know who you are and what you think, so you needn't reply. It seems pretty silly to defend the notion that these comics can't possibly be as rare as 1:100 when they can't be found at all, or in ratios closer to 1:200 or 1:500. 

My experience is that I will often buy newsstands that I'm not looking for because I see them and the ones I want aren't available. The idea is that I can trade them later for what I do want. That said, the issues that are on my want list can take a long time to find. When I started looking for these almost three years ago, the comics at the top of my list were:

ASM #606, 607, 611

Catwoman #1-4

DD #111

Hulk (1999) #92

Hulk (2008) #1, 15, 16

New Avengers #11, 27

Wolverine #66, 67

Over the years, I've found all but 2 of those comics, but one of the ones I found, I didn't buy because of price (ASM #611) I haven't seen another since then. Also, the copies of New Avengers #11 and 27, Hulk #15 and 16, and DD#111 are not in the greatest condition (7.0-8.0). I'm still looking for better copies but have only seen one, a CGC 9.8 Hulk 16 that sold for about $800 (I bid up to $205 and a couple other guys on this board bid slightly higher but didn't get it either). None of these appeared right away. It isn't as if I went out with my shopping list, found these immediately, and stopped looking. 
I spotted the Wolverine #67 first, after a few weeks of looking. The Hulk #1 came next, after looking for about 8 months. After that, I think it was the ASM #606-607, bought together, after about a year of looking. The New Avengers #27 was found just a couple weeks ago after looking for just under three years. I have multiple copies of the NS Catwoman #2 and 4, but have never seen #1 or 3.

The difference I see between these and other comics is that I can find practically any other comic from the Silver, Bronze, Copper, and modern age without difficulty whenever I want it. If I wanted a CGC-graded copy of Marvel Premiere #1 right now, I could probably find one in ten minutes or less. I just tested that, found a couple in seconds. Even some "rare" Golden Age comics can be found pretty easily, such as Four Color V2 #9 (first Carl Barks Donald Duck). I found two of those in 9.0 condition in the same week, I just found 8 of these in a few seconds, though not in the greatest condition. That was published 1942 but I still can't find one copy of the newsstand Daredevil #111 (first Lady Bullseye) in the same condition. Even if you ignore condition, they don't appear for sale that often relative to the number of direct editions of the same comic are offered.

My gut feeling on this is that actual rarity varies by year, title, and individual issues (like ASM #300 is more common in NS than ASM #316). Condition also seems to vary by title. For whatever reason, certain titles seem better preserved than others, possibly because sell-outs of popular issues at comic book stores led to collectors buying those issues at the newsstand. So, this is my vey rough idea of what the real rarity is. This is gut feeling only, done without looking at any of the research I've done on this:

Marvel/DC newsstands 1980's in mid or low grades: anywhere from 1:1 to 1:4, depending on title and issue

Marvel/DC newsstands 1980's in high grade: anywhere from 1:10 to 1:25, depending on title and issue

Marvel Canadian newsstands 1980's in mid or low grades: 1:20 

DC Canadian newsstands 1980's in mid or low grades: 1:30 

Marvel Canadian newsstands 1980's in high grades: 1:50

DC Canadian newsstands 1980's in high grades: 1:75

Marvel/DC newsstands 1990's in grades up to 7.5: 1:15-1:25

Marvel/DC newsstands 1990's in grades 8.0 and up: 1:25-1:40 (with exception of high-volume comics like ASM #300, which are closer to 1:1)

Marvel newsstand 1999-2002: 1:30 overall. In high grade, 1:40

Marvel 1999-2000 price variants: 1:2,000-1:5,000

DC newsstand 1999-2002: 1:15 overall

Marvel/DC newsstand 2003-2005: 1:50 - 1:75

Marvel/DC newsstand 2006-2008: 1:100-1:1000

Marvel newsstand 2009-2010: 1:100

DC newsstand 2009-2010: 1:200

Marvel newsstand 2011-2013: 1:75

DC newsstand 2011-2017: 1:100

Valiant newsstands, all years: 1:300

Archie newsstands 1999-2010: 1:5-1:20

Image newsstands 1990-1999: 1:5-1:10

This list is for finding any newsstand in each of these categories, not for finding specific issues. In other words, if you don't care which newsstand published by Marvel in 2002 you buy, you will find one in about the ratios I just estimated. If you do care which title it comes from or which issue it is, the ratios get higher. In other words, if you're just vacuuming up newsstands indiscriminately, you'll have much better luck than if you are trying to complete a run or find certain key issues. That could lead to the incorrect impression that these are more common than they are.

For instance, if the ratio for any issue of a ten issue run is 1:20 but you don't care which issue you get, you have a pretty good chance of finding at least one of them in a group of 100 listings. If you want only issue five, you may not find it in the same group of 100 comics.

Due to the difficulty of finding these things, I am much less willing to sell or trade them than I would have been otherwise. The way I look at it, if I sell one, I may never see it again. Someone on this board offered me a quick 500% profit on a couple of these comics, another offered 250%, both within days of the purchase, but I didn't sell because if I did, that might be the last I see of these. On that basis, I offer the following: there likely are hoards of newsstands out there in collections like mine. However, I am probably not the only person who has decided to hang onto the comics, to not release them into the market, due to awareness of how difficult it would be to reassemble the group. We know there are collectors on this thread with fairly large collections of newsstands (I have about 2,500). That doesn't mean these are going to be dropped into the market and thus make them common. Even if we did, there likely wouldn't be enough copies to make them common. If I put my whole collection on eBay today, it would make a few issues look more common that they are (like ASM V2 #30, which I have at least 8x copies of), but they'd be gone in a week and the market would be right back where it started. Also, those 8 copies would still be a small minority of the direct editions of the same comic that are available at any given time.

woo-hoo! that would make the one I signed by Campbell look like, just wow!  

[jimjum12]

On 1/19/2022 at 3:36 PM, paqart said:

I should add that some of those shops likely did order more of some issues but the point isn't to identify the larger orders of the more popular comics. The point is that many titles had little to no presence in newsstand venues because those venues either didn't want to sacrifice the shelf space or they didn't trust the title to sell. Therefore:

1) It is unlikely that comics were evenly distributed to newsstand customers

2) Many titles had zero representation at some of those outlets

3) Newsstand print runs may be 1:100 directs, as some who have knowledge of this have estimated, or less

For those who doubt the viability of print runs in the hundreds, keep in mind that:

4) Modern printing and distribution methods reduced costs associated with printing variations of an issue, such as store variants, blank covers, newsstand vs/direct UPC, etc. Also,

5) there are other reasons to print and distribute newsstands, such as promotion of related graphic novels, to continue to test the market, or as a courtesy to long-standing customers.

Add in the destruction of newsstands, and it is easy to see how a 1:100 print run ratio can turn into a 1:800 market availability ratio.

This post is made in honor of those who insist on pushing the narrative that newsstands aren't that interesting, aren't that rare, can't possibly be as rare as 1:100, and anyone who thinks otherwise is as daffy as a daffodil.

Around here, in what I would describe as an upper mid-level hub, I would usually take the time when visiting Barnes and Noble to check out the spinner. Typically, the fare consisted of the bigger sellers. It was predominately ASM, FF, SUPERMAN, BATMAN, and related titles. Sometimes (... at band camp) there would be more than one month of a title. One might presume the mentality was that a slot filled with something dated but popular was a wiser outlay than something new and obscure. Either way, it's obvious that comics were no longer outselling Cosmo. If someone offered me a shortbox newstand run of a title like circa 2000's Swamp Thing, I'd pay more if they were mintish than a Direct box of high grade. GOD BLESS...

-jimbo(a friends of jesus)

[valiantman]

On 1/22/2022 at 12:51 PM, paqart said:

BTW, I have written a few papers for peer-reviewed scientific journals and am considering writing something about this phenomenon (estimating available quantities based on imperfect data). 

It is likely that the Pareto principle is a strong place to start with estimates.  (The 80/20 rule - 80% of consequences come from 20% of the causes.)

Direct editions are likely to have been protected well 80% of the time, and perhaps 20% went to casual collectors who may have tossed/lost/damaged them through the years.

Newsstand editions are likely to have been protected well 20% of the time, and perhaps 80% went to casual collectors (or went unsold and got returned) which may have tossed/lost/damaged them through the years.

When a book was sold out at comic shops, the numbers probably flip to closer 80% saved on newsstand because direct buyers went and got them.

Those are not the original printing ratios, just the estimate for the normal outcomes of the two editions. 

Applying this to a realistic scenario:

There is some point in time between the start of the direct market and the end of the newsstand era (most likely in the early-to-mid 1980s) that there would have been 70% newsstand and 30% direct editions (100% total for both).

If 80% of the direct editions survived, that would be 24% of the original total.

If 20% of the newsstands survived, that would be 21% of the original total.

That would assume about 45% survival and about 55% loss to the ages or damages/reader copy material.

Today, we'd expect to see about 53% direct (24 out of 45%) and 47% newsstand (21 out of 45%) even though the original print was 70% newsstand and 30% direct edition.

If you're talking about the end of the newsstand era (2000 to 2010s), the printed ratio could have been 95% direct and 5% newsstand (100% total for both).

80% of the direct editions surviving would be 76% of the original total.

20% of the newsstands surviving would be 1% of the original total.

That gives us 77% survival, but 76 of those 77% would be direct editions (98.7%), leaving 1.3% as surviving newsstand (1.3% of the total surviving, not 1.3% printed... it was 5% printed in this scenario).

That allows for newsstand to be 1:20 at the time of printing in 2000s-2010s, but the market could reflect about 1:75 when anyone tries to find them today.

That's not 1:75 printed... it's 1:20 newsstand when they were printed, even in the last years of newsstand, but closer to 1:75 when you search for a newsstand copy years later.

When it comes to high grade, those numbers would shrink further for newsstands.

This is all hypothetical, but it matches very well with what we've seen for years, if not decades now.

Edited January 24, 2022 by valiantman

[Lazyboy]

On 1/24/2022 at 9:58 AM, valiantman said:

If you're talking about the end of the newsstand era (2000 to 2010s), the printed ratio could have been 95% direct and 5% newsstand (100% total for both).

No, it couldn't have been. The ratio of printed copies was likely never under around 80:20, and even that is pushing it.

[valiantman]

On 1/24/2022 at 2:34 PM, Lazyboy said:

No, it couldn't have been. The ratio of printed copies was likely never under around 80:20, and even that is pushing it.

Why would Marvel and D.C. discontinue the newsstand program if at least 20% of their printed material was newsstands?

[Lazyboy]

On 1/24/2022 at 2:48 PM, valiantman said:

Why would Marvel and D.C. discontinue the newsstand program if at least 20% of their printed material was newsstands?

Well, it wasn't 20% of their printed material, since they had both been dropping titles from the newsstand channel for years. If all of those printed copies sold, they might have kept going, but that's not how newsstand distribution has ever worked.

Also, with sales falling in general, the numbers didn't work. Printing 500,000 copies and selling 200,000 worked... well enough. Printing 50,000 copies and selling 20,000 didn't work as well, even if they didn't want to abandon the market. Eventually, there just had to be a breaking point.

[revat]

I'd say another factor of newsstands that seems unknowable are the ratios around specific titles, potentially related to ordering minimums or maximums.  Obviously most people care about Spiderman, Batman, Xmen, and they might be at one ratio as larger titles (or they might sell more proportionally on newstands assuming they track the numbers), but there may have been contracts with newsstands or barnes and noble of "Ok Marvel, you have to give me at least 75 comics per month, at least 10 different titles, and at least 5 copies of any given title, with a max of 15 copies of any given title" or whatever numbers.  So possibly especially for some of the lesser titles, there maybe 5 newsstand copies of She-Hulk in each barnes and noble in the whole country and the whole print run might be 20,000, and there might be 5 newsstand copies of Devil Dinosaur in each B&N in the country but the total print run might 40,000.  And so the Devil Dinosaur ratio of newsstand:direct is half of the She-Hulks, BUT WE WILL PROBABLY NEVER KNOW.

Similarly, if the Amazing Spiderman was an especially huge run that month, there might also be MORE actual newsstand copies, but the newsstand to direct ratio might be smaller if Barnes and Noble had a cap on the max number of any one title they'll take that month.

but we'll never know.  

[valiantman]

On 1/24/2022 at 3:01 PM, Lazyboy said:

Well, it wasn't 20% of their printed material, since they had both been dropping titles from the newsstand channel for years. If all of those printed copies sold, they might have kept going, but that's not how newsstand distribution has ever worked.

Also, with sales falling in general, the numbers didn't work. Printing 500,000 copies and selling 200,000 worked... well enough. Printing 50,000 copies and selling 20,000 didn't work as well, even if they didn't want to abandon the market. Eventually, there just had to be a breaking point.

Where are those newsstand books?  Everyone has access to eBay, Facebook, instagram, etc., and the newsstands are showing up about 1 in 50 copies for 2000s and 2010s issues (or worse), as @paqart has documented. Anyone, anywhere, can pull books, toys, games, whatever, out of the closet and sell them online today.  They've been able to do so for years.  If the newsstands exist, we'd be seeing them.

No one can pull 50 blue marbles out of a bag for every 1 red marble and suggest with any believability that 20% of the bag is actually red marbles.

Edited January 24, 2022 by valiantman

[Get Marwood & I]

On 1/24/2022 at 9:23 PM, valiantman said:

Where are those newsstand books?  Everyone has access to eBay, Facebook, instagram, etc., and the newsstands are showing up about 1 in 50 copies for 2000s and 2010s issues (or worse, as @paqart has documented.  It doesn't take a an official comic retailer to sell their books in a public place.  Anyone can pull books, toys, games, whatever, out of the closet and sell it today.  They've been able to do so for years.  If the newsstands exist, we'd be seeing them.

No one can pull 50 blue marbles out of a bag for every 1 red marble and suggest with any believability that 20% of the bag is actually red marbles.

 

[valiantman]

On 1/24/2022 at 3:22 PM, revat said:

I'd say another factor of newsstands that seems unknowable are the ratios around specific titles, potentially related to ordering minimums or maximums.  Obviously most people care about Spiderman, Batman, Xmen, and they might be at one ratio as larger titles (or they might sell more proportionally on newstands assuming they track the numbers), but there may have been contracts with newsstands or barnes and noble of "Ok Marvel, you have to give me at least 75 comics per month, at least 10 different titles, and at least 5 copies of any given title, with a max of 15 copies of any given title" or whatever numbers.  So possibly especially for some of the lesser titles, there maybe 5 newsstand copies of She-Hulk in each barnes and noble in the whole country and the whole print run might be 20,000, and there might be 5 newsstand copies of Devil Dinosaur in each B&N in the country but the total print run might 40,000.  And so the Devil Dinosaur ratio of newsstand:direct is half of the She-Hulks, BUT WE WILL PROBABLY NEVER KNOW.

Similarly, if the Amazing Spiderman was an especially huge run that month, there might also be MORE actual newsstand copies, but the newsstand to direct ratio might be smaller if Barnes and Noble had a cap on the max number of any one title they'll take that month.

but we'll never know.  

Pretty much every market in existence is based upon what can be known, what can be observed actually occurring in the market, and there is information that no one will ever know.

The markets move forward anyway.

How much gold is left to be mined on Earth? Few people could possibly give a reasonable estimate, nor could they predict when a giant find (new huge supply) will appear, even though it most certainly will in the future.

Gold still has a daily changeable price that the whole world watches anyway.

The market doesn't really care if some people are afraid of the unknowns.

[Lazyboy]

On 1/24/2022 at 3:23 PM, valiantman said:

Where are those newsstand books?  Everyone has access to eBay, Facebook, instagram, etc., and the newsstands are showing up about 1 in 50 copies for 2000s and 2010s issues (or worse), as @paqart has documented.

Maybe they're all on Facebook and Instagram. Are you documenting every copy there? Maybe they're in collections and backstock, unseen to everybody but their owners. We don't know where they all are now.

On 1/24/2022 at 3:23 PM, valiantman said:

Anyone, anywhere, can pull books, toys, games, whatever, out of the closet and sell them online today.  They've been able to do so for years.

The ability to do something and it actually happening are not at all the same thing. Not everybody sells stuff, online or not.

On 1/24/2022 at 3:23 PM, valiantman said:

  If the newsstands exist, we'd be seeing them.

No, their simple existence does not mean they are visible to you. But as time goes by, they will appear. Some have already and that will continue indefinitely.

On 1/24/2022 at 3:23 PM, valiantman said:

No one can pull 50 blue marbles out of a bag for every 1 red marble and suggest with any believability that 20% of the bag is actually red marbles.

Nobody with any credibility can suggest that only 5% of printed copies were Newsstands when "returns" were higher than 10% of the print run. Oh right, you only use extremely limited data that supports your wild claims.

I also never claimed that 100% of printed copies still exist. That would be ridiculous for 99.99% of comics, let alone specific versions of some comics that shouldn't exist if they go unsold during their limited shelf time. But I guarantee the number of extant copies is far higher than you think.