How rare are modern newsstand editions? 6 6

[valiantman]

On 1/24/2022 at 3:53 PM, Lazyboy said:

Maybe they're all on Facebook and Instagram. Are you documenting every copy there? Maybe they're in collections and backstock, unseen to everybody but their owners. We don't know where they all are now.

The ability to do something and it actually happening are not at all the same thing. Not everybody sells stuff, online or not.

No, their simple existence does not mean they are visible to you. But as time goes by, they will appear. Some have already and that will continue indefinitely.

Nobody with any credibility can suggest that only 5% of printed copies were Newsstands when "returns" were higher than 10% of the print run. Oh right, you only use extremely limited data that supports your wild claims.

I also never claimed that 100% of printed copies still exist. That would be ridiculous for 99.99% of comics, let alone specific versions of some comics that shouldn't exist if they go unsold during their limited shelf time. But I guarantee the number of extant copies is far higher than you think.

I never talk about the number of extant copies. I talk about percentages.  When only 2% of the copies in the market are newsstands, there is no way that 20% is the actual percentage in existence.  If you can beat those odds against reality, you should be playing the lottery.

[Lazyboy]

On 1/24/2022 at 3:58 PM, valiantman said:

I never talk about the number of extant copies. I talk about percentages.  When only 2% of the copies in the market are newsstands, there is no way that 20% is the actual percentage in existence.  If you can beat those odds against reality, you should be playing the lottery.

That's not reality, just your skewed view, ignoring many factors that exist in actual reality. And again, I'm not arguing that just because there were 20% Newsstands printed that 20% of extant copies are Newsstands.

[valiantman]

On 1/24/2022 at 4:04 PM, Lazyboy said:

That's not reality, just your skewed view, ignoring many factors that exist in actual reality. And again, I'm not arguing that just because there were 20% Newsstands printed that 20% of extant copies are Newsstands.

How about giving us an estimate?  What percentage of surviving copies of a book like New Avengers #27 (2007) do you believe are newsstand editions?

Edited January 24, 2022 by valiantman

[Lazyboy]

On 1/24/2022 at 4:08 PM, valiantman said:

How about giving us an estimate?  What percentage of surviving copies of a book like New Avengers #27 (2007) do you believe are newsstand editions?

Based on how the issue sold in the Direct Market (quite well - top seller), it could quite possibly be under 10%, assuming no unusual shenanigans in the newsstand system.

[paqart]

On 1/24/2022 at 4:52 PM, valiantman said:

Pretty much every market in existence is based upon what can be known, what can be observed actually occurring in the market, and there is information that no one will ever know.

The markets move forward anyway.

How much gold is left to be mined on Earth? Few people could possibly give a reasonable estimate, nor could they predict when a giant find (new huge supply) will appear, even though it most certainly will in the future.

Gold still has a daily changeable price that the whole world watches anyway.

The market doesn't really care if some people are afraid of the unknowns.

Best answer of the day award.

I'll add that this is one of the things I discovered when writing my PhD thesis: Science exists as a field because there are so many unknowns. The fact that unknowns are present is not a recommendation to sit on one's hands until they disappear. In this case, that would mean missing the opportunity presented by poorly understood rarity and it's implications for supply and demand.

[valiantman]

On 1/24/2022 at 4:21 PM, Lazyboy said:

Based on how the issue sold in the Direct Market (quite well - top seller), it could quite possibly be under 10%, assuming no unusual shenanigans in the newsstand system.

Now we're getting somewhere. 

You may not know it, but your posts consistently suggest that there is no real difference in direct editions and newsstands, that anyone suggesting newsstands should be worth more are hucksters, and that you're going to continue to beat that drum as long as you have access to a keyboard.

Even admitting that 90%+ are direct editions ends any speculation that you think that is no real difference and that you at least recognize the possibility that something 10% or less is by definition "less common" (and dare I say it... therefore, potentially worth more).

[paqart]

On a whim, I just looked up sold copies of New Avengers #27 on eBay. Of the total 170 items that had a clear photo of the UPC box, 4 were newsstands. The ratio, therefore, is 1:42, or 2.4%. That is very close to @valiantman's estimate. I wouldn't be surprised that the ratio is closer to 1:50 but there weren't enough sold copies to determine if that was true.

[valiantman]

One of the most interesting factors in collectibles that is consistent no matter what market we're discussing (comics, cards, toys, posters, etc.) is that MANY of the valuable items had a period of time (years, if not decades) where they had little or no "extra" value.

Golden Age comics are valuable today almost exclusively because the majority of people threw them away the majority of the time, and for the surviving issues, the idea of high grade condition sensitivity was yet to enter the market.

Our best surviving copies of most of these types of collectibles only exist because someone ignored (or never heard) the wisdom of the crowd that the things were worthless.

It is amazing to me how many times a collectible becomes valuable and the comments are something like, "I had one (or lots) of those! I threw it away!" or "we hated those things... reprints! Ugh!" (such as Man of Steel #18 4th or 5th printings)

The newsstand market fits well with this trend, there was a period of time (years, if not decades) when they had little or no "extra" value.  In the age of everyone assuming everything is going to be valuable someday, the newsstand system died due to lack of success.  

Ultimate Fallout #4 Newsstand may be the "banner child" for this phenomenon in the 21st century, and it will almost surely continue to happen with other overlooked comic books... but it is happening despite the comic publisher's attempt to force collectible value on something else.  How many of the 1:10, 1:25, 1:50, or 1:100 retailer incentive variants that the publishers INTENDED to have premium value are essentially worthless today? 

The Franklin Mint tried to convince everyone that every limited edition anything they made would be a future treasure, but they always compared their items to collectibles that spent years as "nothing special", not items that were created for the sole purpose of "manufacturing premiums".

They tried to force something from day one that only happens naturally after decades and periods of time when the items are "worthless" or "no big deal".

Yes, there will always be value in Ultimate Fallout #4 1:25 variant, that's what it was created to be from the day it was released. Because Ultimate Fallout #4 matters as a regular direct edition, it will matter as the publisher's intentional premium variant... but the fact that every copy of Ultimate Fallout #4 Newsstand (from the failing newsstand system in 2011) with a recorded sale has been a higher price than the same grade of the UF #4 variant at the time, to me, is simply amazing.

Edited January 24, 2022 by valiantman

[paqart]

On 1/24/2022 at 5:39 PM, valiantman said:

One of the most interesting factors in collectibles that is consistent no matter what market we're discussing (comics, cards, toys, posters, etc.) is that MANY of the valuable items had a period of time (years, if not decades) where they had little or no "extra" value.

Golden Age comics are valuable today almost exclusively because the majority of people threw them away the majority of the time, and for the surviving issues, the idea of high grade condition sensitivity was yet to enter the market.

Our best surviving copies of most of these types of collectibles only exist because someone ignored (or never heard) the wisdom of the crowd that the things were worthless.

It is amazing to me how many times a collectible becomes valuable and the comments are something like, "I had one (or lots) of those! I threw it away!" or "we hated those things... reprints! Ugh!" (such as Man of Steel #18 4th or 5th printings)

The newsstand market fits well with this trend, there was a period of time (years, if not decades) when they had little or no "extra" value.  In the age of everyone assuming everything is going to be valuable someday, the newsstand system died due to lack of success.  

Ultimate Fallout #4 Newsstand may be the "banner child" for this phenomenon in the 21st century, and it will almost surely continue to happen... but it happens despite the comic publisher's attempt to force collectible value.  How many of the 1:10, 1:25, 1:50, or 1:100 retailer incentive variants that the publishers INTENDED to have premium value are essentially worthless today?  They tried to force something from day one that happens naturally after a decade.

Yes, there will always be value in Ultimate Fallout #4 1:25 variant, that's what it was created to be from the day it was released... but the fact that every copy of Ultimate Fallout #4 Newsstand with a recorded sale has been a higher price than the same grade of the UF #4 variant at the time, to me, is simply amazing.

I've been thinking about this in the context of Indiegogo and Kickstarter projects for a couple of years now. I wanted to get Graham Nolan's Monster Island but it was offered at about the time I moved from the Netherlands to the United States. I figured I'd pick it up at a comic book store after the move. At the time, it didn't occur to me that comic book stores wouldn't have it. I thought I had a shot at it today when Graham offered three books in one on Indiegogo (I contributed to one of the stories). I bought the bundle, only to discover Monster Island wasn't included.
It may be that these never become popular enough for the prices to rise because their distribution pattern is so different from other comics. However, there are a number of well-known creators self-publishing their work and distributing straight to the customer in quantities large enough to be profitable to the creator, but smaller than would be necessary to be profitable for a traditional publisher. The combination of lower print runs, invisible distribution, and slow leaks to the market, make me wonder if these have serious investment potential. That said, I would expect comics in this category to be well-preserved in most cases.

[Lazyboy]

On 1/24/2022 at 4:27 PM, valiantman said:

Now we're getting somewhere. 

You may not know it, but your posts consistently suggest that there is no real difference in direct editions and newsstands, that anyone suggesting newsstands should be worth more are hucksters, and that you're going to continue to beat that drum as long as you have access to a keyboard.

I know exactly what I post.

I have never denied that the newsstand market was in a slowly (but more or less constantly) shrinking state for decades and that the biggest publishers eventually found it unfeasible to continue selling through that market. I have never denied that the majority of Newsstands (during the decades of dual distribution) are less common than their Direct counterparts. These are plain and simple facts.

I have taken great issue with the absolutely ridiculous numbers that some people pull out of their asses to hype Newsstands as being something that they are not. The truth (even if it's not very specific) should be enough if people actually care.

On 1/24/2022 at 4:27 PM, valiantman said:

Even admitting that 90%+ are direct editions ends any speculation that you think that is no real difference and that you at least recognize the possibility that something 10% or less is by definition "less common" (and dare I say it... therefore, potentially worth more).

Wait... so why would admitting that only ~20% are/were Newsstands not be good enough?

[valiantman]

On 1/24/2022 at 4:50 PM, paqart said:

The combination of lower print runs, invisible distribution, and slow leaks to the market, make me wonder if these have serious investment potential. That said, I would expect comics in this category to be well-preserved in most cases.

The mixture has to be just right for success to occur one day.  First of all, it has to be an item that people will want (have a fandom, grow a fandom, or see a market develop).  If it's not, then it's essentially the same as original art from children on a refrigerator.  Even one-of-a-kind isn't enough to create a market value on its own.

The other aspect of the mixture that is important is "complete distribution". Many, many of the comic shop exclusive comics fit the "lower print runs, invisible distribution, slow leaks to the market" characteristics, but it is nearly impossible for a market to develop when a high concentration exists in one (or just a few) place(s), such as still in the hands of the comic shop or the creator. 

If the Indiegogo and Kickstarter projects can achieve complete distribution and avoid high concentrations of items in one spot, they could absolutely become the impossible-to-find (except to pay a high price) collectibles of the future.

[valiantman]

On 1/24/2022 at 4:53 PM, Lazyboy said:

On 1/24/2022 at 4:27 PM, valiantman said:

Even admitting that 90%+ are direct editions ends any speculation that you think that is no real difference and that you at least recognize the possibility that something 10% or less is by definition "less common" (and dare I say it... therefore, potentially worth more).

Wait... so why would admitting that only ~20% are/were Newsstands not be good enough?

Because I wanted to see if you'd settle lower than ~20%.  "10% or less" is where you settled... and that's what I was waiting for. 

[Lazyboy]

On 1/24/2022 at 4:39 PM, valiantman said:

Golden Age comics are valuable today almost exclusively because the majority of people threw them away the majority of the time, and for the surviving issues, the idea of high grade condition sensitivity was yet to enter the market.

No, GA owes its value to World War II and Wertham, as well as a longer period for attrition to happen.

On 1/24/2022 at 4:39 PM, valiantman said:

How many of the 1:10, 1:25, 1:50, or 1:100 retailer incentive variants that the publishers INTENDED to have premium value are essentially worthless today?

The publishers didn't intend for those to have secondary market value, they intended for them to help them sell more copies. Mission accomplished.

[valiantman]

On 1/24/2022 at 5:04 PM, Lazyboy said:

On 1/24/2022 at 4:39 PM, valiantman said:

Golden Age comics are valuable today almost exclusively because the majority of people threw them away the majority of the time, and for the surviving issues, the idea of high grade condition sensitivity was yet to enter the market.

No, GA owes its value to World War II and Wertham, as well as a longer period for attrition to happen.

I didn't specify why they were thrown away, just that they were.  Your response of "No, GA owes its value to World War II and Wertham" should have been "Yes, GA owes its value to World War II and Wertham" 

[paqart]

On 1/24/2022 at 5:56 PM, valiantman said:

The mixture has to be just right for success to occur one day.  First of all, it has to be an item that people will want (have a fandom, grow a fandom, or see a market develop).  If it's not, then it's essentially the same as original art from children on a refrigerator.  Even one-of-a-kind isn't enough to create a market value on its own.

The other aspect of the mixture that is important is "complete distribution". Many, many of the comic shop exclusive comics fit the "lower print runs, invisible distribution, slow leaks to the market" characteristics, but it is nearly impossible for a market to develop when a high concentration exists in one (or just a few) place(s), such as still in the hands of the comic shop or the creator. 

If the Indiegogo and Kickstarter projects can achieve complete distribution and avoid high concentrations of items in one spot, they could absolutely become the impossible-to-find (except to pay a high price) collectibles of the future.

Something interesting about the art world is that value is often associated with the number of sales. That is, the more often work by a certain artist is sold, the higher the price becomes. What this causes is the amplification of value for artwork that is the least rare in the market and the diminution of value for the truly rare items. For instance, in the photorealism genre, prices range from a minimum (among the better artists) of about $20,000 for an oil painting to highs of several hundred thousand, with the exception of artist Chuck Close, whose work has sold in the low millions but he is less a photorealist than a Minimalist, where prices are higher. On the low end of the pricing scale, you have artists who labor to make 4-6 paintings a year. I bought one such painting by David Parrish for a little over $40k. At the high end of the spectrum, you have Richard McClean and Richard Estes, both of whom turn out dozens of paintings a year.

Another example is Pablo Picasso, one of the most prolific artists that has ever lived, if not the most prolific. In fine art terms, his work is as common as dirt, yet it commands the highest prices relative to other artists from the same era.

In fine art, sales equal visibility and visibility increases value. The same applies to Superman, whose comics were printed in much higher numbers than similar comics from the era but which remain the most sought after.

Where newsstands become highly interesting is that high numbers of direct editions ensure the distribution needed to create visibility, while newsstand editions are vanishingly rare. A similar dynamic may exist with Kickstarter-types of comics when the creators are well-known for work in normal distribution channels. Graham Nolan, for instance, is well-known for his work on Batman. Other artists who have made those types of projects are also well known. Therefore, it is reasonable to project there is carryover interest in their Kickstarter work.

TMNT#1 would likely be worthless today if Eastman and Laird hadn't hooked up with an excellent merchandising agent who signed deals to make merchandise and movies out of the characters.

I agree that rarity is not the only factor related to establishing value. It does, however, increase value when there is interest in the item, however that interest is created (through direct distribution, merchandising, creator popularity in another medium, etc)

 

Edited January 24, 2022 by paqart

[valiantman]

On 1/24/2022 at 5:04 PM, Lazyboy said:

The publishers didn't intend for those to have secondary market value, they intended for them to help them sell more copies. Mission accomplished.

They didn't expect that comic shops would sell 1:25 variants for the same price as the regular edition.  True, that's not a secondary market sale, that's the initial sale, but paying $25 for a 1:25 variant is silly unless the intent is to benefit in the secondary market later.  Creating limited editions has always been done with a view toward the secondary market, even if the publisher doesn't benefit from that market directly.

[Lazyboy]

On 1/24/2022 at 5:12 PM, valiantman said:

They didn't expect that comic shops would sell 1:25 variants for the same price as the regular edition. 

Well, they do put the regular retail price on them, but yeah, it's going too far to say they expect shops to sell for that price.

On 1/24/2022 at 5:12 PM, valiantman said:

but paying $25 for a 1:25 variant is silly

Yes. I'm certainly not going to argue with you here.

On 1/24/2022 at 5:12 PM, valiantman said:

unless the intent is to benefit in the secondary market later.

The biggest buyer of variants I know has never sold a comic, nor does he have any intention of doing so any time soon. Most collectors don't sell stuff, regardless of how much easier it is now than it used to be.

[valiantman]

On 1/24/2022 at 5:12 PM, paqart said:

Something interesting about the art world is that value is often associated with the number of sales. That is, the more often work by a certain artist is sold, the higher the price becomes. What this causes is the amplification of value for artwork that is the least rare in the market and the diminution of value for the truly rare items.

...

I agree that rarity is not the only factor related to establishing value. It does, however, increase value when there is interest in the item, however that interest is created (through direct distribution, merchandising, creator popularity in another medium, etc)

I've noticed the problem with diminution of value for truly rare items, Centaur Comics are a perfect example.  Original art is another, since each item is one-of-a-kind, but it is helpful when a "collective" of truly rare items can form a market with enough sales "from the collective" to provide some activity to increase individual item prices.  Centaur Comics (as a collective) have sales that are increasing the values of all books, even when individual issues may not sell for years at a time.  Original art (as a collective) has only recently begun to climb into the millions of dollars, but the argument that the original creation of a popular image (printed hundreds of thousands of times) - such as the Secret Wars #8 page, should be as valuable as classic artworks (millions of dollars) which are only famous for being famous.  In many ways, original art from popular comic books are the "people's choice" of art treasures while obscure million dollar artworks are confined to the one-percenters' playground.

The "danger" in any market is always the ability for a single player to control the narrative (or the market itself) through manipulation of the information or the supply.  If some item is purported to be limited to 50 copies, but the creator knows they have more in reserve, the price could plummet overnight.  That's a concern with Indiegogo or Kickstarter projects, since there's no accountability required of anyone.  At least Marvel or D.C. would theoretically get in trouble for that type of manipulation, but it's the wild west in self-publishing.

[Lazyboy]

On 1/24/2022 at 5:10 PM, valiantman said:

I didn't specify why they were thrown away, just that they were.  Your response of "No, GA owes its value to World War II and Wertham" should have been "Yes, GA owes its value to World War II and Wertham" 

You implied that it was because of nearly everybody treating comics as disposable entertainment, not multiple unusual mass-attrition events that haven't been an issue since then.

[valiantman]

On 1/24/2022 at 5:24 PM, Lazyboy said:

The biggest buyer of variants I know has never sold a comic, nor does he have any intention of doing so any time soon. Most collectors don't sell stuff, regardless of how much easier it is now than it used to be.

What percentage of the extant copies does he own?  Markets are usually comprised of about 10% (or less) of extant copies changing hands each year (unless it's the first year after release). 

If the buyer you know is somewhere in the other 90% that never comes to market, he has no impact on the market value and if his supply is single issues, he has no potential to impact the market value.