Heritage September 2022 comic and art auction 3 3

[grapeape]

On 8/19/2022 at 5:20 AM, kbmcvay said:

That Jane Foster centric JIM page is the one I like the best personally (even though it has Vinnie inks). I think the blacks on that one look really awesome.

Hey if you like Thor Colletta is actually very good on Kirby Thor. I  knock him left and right for erasing backgrounds and other quirks, but not when it comes to JIM or THOR. He did a fine job in my opinion. 👍 

 

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

On 8/21/2022 at 1:41 AM, delekkerste said:

Viewing you two as both very knowledgeable boardies, this is the image that comes to my mind

Edited August 21, 2022 by GreatCaesarsGhost

[Rick2you2]

On 8/20/2022 at 10:53 PM, tth2 said:

If it were that easy to support prices, there would never be any dip in public auction prices of anything.

But a coke dealer can only snort so much of his own inventory before he runs out of inventory and money. 

It isn’t that easy. It costs money. But there wouldn’t be a total price crash on an artist/subject which would ordinarily be in high demand. The interference would only have to be a relatively small percentage to prevent the recording of a material drop. Too many potential price drops would at least give the offender the time to unload his/her own stock until the next sale period. 
 

That coke dealer probably has such a high markup on his product, he could probably snort quite a bit of inventory in the short run and do okay.

[tth2]

On 8/21/2022 at 2:29 PM, delekkerste said:

That said, the fact that we've reached this kind of late stage thinking that says prices can only ever go up with zero pullbacks because comics and OA are immune to real-world factors is...troubling.

As you know, I agree with you that when people start to believe that stocks are bullet-proof, it's time to get worried, which is why I pull out the old "permanently high plateau" quote from time to time.

But I've been collecting comics since the 1970s and have yet to see them go down meaningfully in 40+ years.  So why would I want to be the one saying "It's different this time"?

[tth2]

On 8/21/2022 at 2:41 PM, delekkerste said:

Great, so I'm going to pretend that my Fernando Tatis Jr. rookie cards serial numbered to 3 (I own two of the 3) are still worth what they were a month ago (pre-80 game suspension due to testing positive for steroids, for those who don't follow baseball) since we haven't had a public sale of my two cards or the third one out there. 

That's a little different situation since the decline in value of Tatis cards is not due to macro economic events or any crashing of the card market in general, but because he's a dumb-. 

In any event, we're not publicly traded funds or even privately traded funds that need to do regular mark-to-market of our portfolios, so why go out of your way to talk down the value of your cards due to this specific situation?  If you and the other owner don't sell and wait out the suspension, and he gets his head and priorities straight and ends up putting together a HoF career, who's going to remember this 2022-23 blip in his career and resulting impact on the value of his cards?  

[tth2]

On 8/21/2022 at 6:24 PM, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

 

Viewing you two as both very knowledgeable boardies, this is the image that comes to my mind

Two fat sweaty semi-naked guys? 

 

Edited August 21, 2022 by tth2

[delekkerste]

On 8/21/2022 at 9:41 AM, tth2 said:

But I've been collecting comics since the 1970s and have yet to see them go down meaningfully in 40+ years.  So why would I want to be the one saying "It's different this time"?

It's easier to be uncorrelated or even contra-cyclical when prices are a lot lower. The whole myth of collectibles contra-cyclicality arose initially from when comics - as an entertainment outlet, not as a collectible or investment - decades ago provided a cheap source of entertainment (especially as they could be read by more than just its owner) in difficult economic times. That has zero bearing on how a multi-million dollar piece of art like the DKR #1 cover will fare when it hit the auction block at a time when stock and crypto markets were both in freefall. Which is not just my opinion, but, what Jim Halperin - the most influential person in the comic art market - said explicitly on the latest Felix Comic Art podcast. He flat-out said on the podcast that it would likely have done better had it been auctioned off even just a few weeks before or after, suggesting not only a sensitivity to what was happening in the broader macro environment, but a high degree of sensitivity at that. On the other hand, back in the day when it was, say, a $2,500 piece instead of a $2.5 million piece, it probably had very little sensitivity to broad external economic factors.

But, let's say you're right and comics and comic art just continue to grind inexorably higher as they have for most of the past few decades. By your logic, past results *are* indicative of future results and prices will basically never go down. But we know that markets do eventually mature and then become more cyclical. And if you wait around long enough, you can even get a secular trend going in the other direction. As for betting that it's different this time, given the countless unprecedented things that have happened in markets over the past 15 years where it really was different this time, I, for one, am retiring that maxim because it no longer has a very good track record. It might not be different this time, but, at some point, it will be, because changes have been and are occurring at an unprecedented pace these days.  

Again, this is not a call for a crash or bear market. This is a call for a realistic assessment of the risks out there at a time when it is widely believed that risk has disappeared (you seem to suggest that it never actually existed at all) and that prices will only ever go up. 

Edited August 21, 2022 by delekkerste

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

On 8/21/2022 at 8:57 AM, tth2 said:

Two fat sweaty semi-naked guys? 

 

Allow me to revise . . .

[jjonahjameson11]

On 8/21/2022 at 10:32 AM, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

Allow me to revise . . .

Actually, more like this!

 

Edited August 21, 2022 by jjonahjameson11

[Rick2you2]

On 8/21/2022 at 10:29 AM, delekkerste said:

It's easier to be uncorrelated or even contra-cyclical when prices are a lot lower. The whole myth of collectibles contra-cyclicality arose initially from when comics - as an entertainment outlet, not as a collectible or investment - decades ago provided a cheap source of entertainment (especially as they could be read by more than just its owner) in difficult economic times. That has zero bearing on how a multi-million dollar piece of art like the DKR #1 will fare when it hit the auction block at a time when stock and crypto markets were both in freefall. Which is not just my opinion, but, what Jim Halperin - the most influential person in the comic art market - said explicitly on the latest Felix Comic Art podcast. He flat-out said on the podcast that it would likely have done better had it been auctioned off even just a few weeks before or after, suggesting not only a sensitivity to what was happening in the broader macro environment, but a high degree of sensitivity at that. On the other hand, back in the day when it was, say, a $2,500 piece instead of a $2.5 million piece, it probably had very little sensitivity to broad external economic factors.

But, let's say you're right and comics and comic art just continue to grind inexorably higher as they have for most of the past few decades. By your logic, past results *are* indicative of future results and prices will basically never go down. But we know that markets do eventually mature and then become more cyclical. And if you wait around long enough, you can even get a secular trend going in the other direction. As for betting that it's different this time, given the countless unprecedented things that have happened in markets over the past 15 years where it really was different this time, I, for one, am retiring that maxim because it no longer has a very good track record. It might not be different this time, but, at some point, it will be, because changes have been and are occurring at an unprecedented pace these days.  

Again, this is not a call for a crash or bear market. This is a call for a realistic assessment of the risks out there at a time when it is widely believed that risk has disappeared (if it even existed at all) and that prices will only ever go up. 

I think that one thing neither one of you are considering, which many people also skip over, are the market details—both as to the age of the piece and price level. Some things will continue to rise, at least for a while, other types will stabilize, still others will go down. Perhaps middle of the road Silver Age stuff will drop, but not high end Marvel, current stuff  at simultaneously climb (which I suspect) and surprises will happen. Most people don’t buy top end priced pieces, yet this debate ignores the bulk of what people are doing. The fact that a piece sold for only $2,000,000 when people are chasing “—————-“ doesn’t matter much, except to inflate expectations of sellers at the lower end.

Let me add that prices in many fields tend to be sticky downwards. There are people holding on to high end oriental rugs because 20 years ago they could command $250,000. Not anymore. Same with 19th century furniture and traditional paintings (usually). They sit, unloved. So, in that sense, you could both be right. 

So, how about looking at the submarkets at OA and making predictions?

[rsonenthal]

Or, you could start another thread and keep this one on it's original topic....

[drdonaldblake1]

On 8/21/2022 at 4:51 PM, MyNameIsLegion said:

“Coke” dealers in the OA hobby have been propping up and pushing up prices for over a decade. They don’t have to win every lot, they just need to bid, and they do. If there’s any price pull back, dealers will just pick up cheaper inventory. There’s a half dozen whales that can do that for a considerable amount of time and blunt any steep price volatility. They’ve adapted their business model now that everyone is savvy enough not to sell in bulk to a dealer but go the auction route instead. However, those dealers have such an overwhelming native advantage from 20-30 years of hoarding art. Now they just need to prop up the market. Sure, the Bechara’s of the world will eventually burn out, but not the real deep inventory dealers.

I thought bechara is one of those BSD OA dealers?

[drdonaldblake1]

On 8/21/2022 at 5:46 PM, grapeape said:

Hey if you like Thor Colletta is actually very good on Kirby Thor. I  knock him left and right for erasing backgrounds and other quirks, but not when it comes to JIM or THOR. He did a fine job in my opinion. 👍 

 

Agreed, Kirby and collettas Thor run was some of the king's best work👍

[Rick2you2]

On 8/21/2022 at 1:53 PM, rsonenthal said:

Or, you could start another thread and keep this one on it's original topic....

And where were your earlier complaints, as though I hijacked the topic? Don’t dump on me for following along.

[jjonahjameson11]

On 8/21/2022 at 1:53 PM, rsonenthal said:

Or, you could start another thread and keep this one on it's original topic....

Whatchu talkin’ about, Ron?

I always tune into the  CGC OA boards to get the latest news about inflation, recession, and doomsday warnings.  We all do, whether we like it or not  

[Rick2you2]

On 8/21/2022 at 5:13 PM, jjonahjameson11 said:

Whatchu talkin’ about, Ron?

I always tune into the  CGC OA boards to get the latest news about inflation, recession, and doomsday warnings.  We all do, whether we like it or not  

You do realize it isn’t about economics so much as fear? A lot of people have invested a lot of money in a narrow collectible related to our childhoods which we know is somewhat of a rigged market. Sharing views, and outlooks, is both comforting and concerning. But, so much for that. 

[Bronty]

That may be true fro some but I think everyone comes at it from their own perspective. 
 

At the end of the day prices make for engaging discussion because neither side can prove the other right or wrong.   As we’ve talked about, after 20 years on here for some of us, Colleta Sucks or Byrne Rocks are topic areas that have been explored .

Edited August 22, 2022 by Bronty

[jjonahjameson11]

On 8/21/2022 at 7:40 PM, Rick2you2 said:

You do realize it isn’t about economics so much as fear? A lot of people have invested a lot of money in a narrow collectible related to our childhoods which we know is somewhat of a rigged market. Sharing views, and outlooks, is both comforting and concerning. But, so much for that. 

Great!  Start your own discord server and knock yourself out!

[Jamie.Merwin]

On 8/21/2022 at 8:16 PM, jjonahjameson11 said:

Great!  Start your own discord server and knock yourself out!

I second both motions

[BCarter27]

This is exactly the place to discuss these things, and I for one welcome the opinions. I've learned a LOT from the people on this board. Keep it coming.