Heritage September 2022 comic and art auction 3 3

[fsumavila]

Um, so....er, how about all those Ross Andru Spider-Man pages in this auction? Andru Spidey pages rarely show up on Heritage auctions. Looks like some collectors (and maybe a dealer sitting on a big stash?) are finally letting some out.

 

[Bronty]

On 8/19/2022 at 11:54 PM, tth2 said:

Maybe comics and OA wouldn't have shot up so much without sports cards resetting the benchmarks for where assets could potentially appreciate to, but you still have to look at the source/quality of the funds that drove prices up. 

It appears clear now that the sports cards were purchased directly by Crypto Bros--the backward cap correlation between Crypto Bros and sports card buyers is extremely high.   

Were many comics and OA similarly purchased directly by Crypto Bros?  A 9.6 AF 15 or high grade mega-key like Action 1/Tec 27/Batman 1/Captain America 1, possibly.  But I'm still skeptical that some backward cap-wearing Bro would be interested in buying some mid-run book from some obscure Timely title that would be unknown and of no interest to anyone except a hardcore GA collector. 

It seems more likely that these items were purchased by "real" comic/OA collectors who were more willing to open up their wallets because of general euphoria from climbs in asset prices, including perhaps because of the price action they were seeing in sports cards, but not so much because of direct competition from Crypto Bros.  

I also think that you underestimate how hyper-plugged in you are to all news of all investment assets and collectible assets compared to most normal people, and thus how much more aware of what's going on in other markets you are than many other collectors.  For example, but for reading the occasional post on these Boards about sports cards sales, or some headline in mainstream media about some earthshattering sports card sale (which I tend to read and then immediately dismiss as the craziness of a bunch of backward-cap wearing maroons), I would've been completely unaware of what was going on in that market.

Which is a long way of saying that in my opinion, the funding for the comics/OA purchases were more real and less speculative, and probably much less leveraged, so there will be much less pressure to sell in a panic as opposed to the Crypto/Sports Card Bros who can fund their multiple speculative purchases only so long as prices continue to rise.  

Backward cap correlation 

Best line in a while!

[KirbyCollector]

On 8/20/2022 at 9:18 AM, Humpty-Dumpty said:

It probably will not be a gradual decline. Maybe from the outset, yes, yet as downward momentum increases, it will pick up speed. Think 2008/2009 declines, but most likely quite a bit more dramatic. The light at the end of the tunnel may be that while the turn down will not be as brief as that 2008/2009 period, the market could begin a slow rebound within around one to one and a half years. The fed and politicians have caused a situation where nothing they or the treasury can do can save this economy. How can any collectibles not suffer from such a calamity?  If the market really tightens up, even dealers will not be able to prop it up for long. Furthermore, I suspect they may not have the will to.

You posted you sold 95% of your collection and aren't buying anything more b/c prices are too high... so why are you here if you are not sharing your art or participating in the hobby? You can always doom post about the economy on Twitter or Reddit, if you so choose.

[Rick2you2]

On 8/20/2022 at 9:40 AM, Humpty-Dumpty said:

Well since usually nothing occurs in a vacuum...

 

As far as Jim H or anyone having optimism for this economy, I don't see how. The fundamental elements of this economy point to nothing but Armagedón. 

I have no idea how you can possibly support this conclusion. The economy had suffered a terrible jolt from COVID, but frankly, I think the government did pretty well considering we have never had anything like it under our modern economic system. Pumping money into the economy prevented a version of the Great Depression from occurring by growing the money supply. That led to current inflation, which is slowing down, but it allowed people to spend money, thereby preventing the 1930’s economic freeze where the government reduced the money supply. People are buying things. Jobs are available, even though there is a mismatch between skills and openings. Anti-trust actions should help bring back more competition and lower prices. Supply chain issues are being resolved. By the middle of next year, we should be staring at a real expansion. 

But that’s not to say the OA market won’t hit a bump—or where. There is so much material out there, and the pile keeps growing. Collectors will age out, with pricing reductions likely hitting middle quality and older “non-classic material”. With a newer generation liking experiences instead of things, Daddy’s precious pictures may end up in the drawer next to grandma’s silverware. Who knows? Maybe we should all just go out and buy game cartridge art. 

[stinkininkin]

On 8/19/2022 at 9:16 AM, comix4fun said:

I totally agree about collecting the art for the combination of story, nostalgia, artist, quality, etc. If ALL collectors shared that sort of in depth appreciation I think we'd remain more insulated as we have been in the past. 

The thing I've noticed that worries me a bit is collectors who are immune, unaware, or uncaring about the quality of the piece or (just for example) the artist AND inker team on a particular title or run of issues that elevates it above other issues or teams. In some cases it seems folks are throwing around giant sums of money without a thought (or inkling) of who the inker is on a page, much less why that's important. The quality of the piece, or where it fits in an artist's career, or if the artwork is actually any good (even relatively) at all, has taken a back seat to other concerns. That's worrisome. 

Feels like this deserves it's own thread. I very much agree with your sentiment, but am wary to discuss it much since my own collection would put me in the category of having a vested interest, influencer, tastemaker, what have you. My collection has always revolved around the art I love most, which happens to run parallel to what was generally considered the best of the best, based on artistic merit, storylines, era, characters, etc. If I were to publicly complain that many of those attributes have gone out the window, to be trumped purely by nostalgia or movie tie ins or first appearances, etc, I'm not sure it would be received as intended. Nothing wrong with using those criteria as well in choosing what to collect, but putting blinders on to how "good" the art is (or isn't, which is what we are talking about here) and ignoring (or not learning) the subtle nuances on what makes a given piece special, well, it does our hobby no favors.

Edited August 20, 2022 by stinkininkin

[batman_fan]

On 8/20/2022 at 7:01 AM, tth2 said:

All I'm saying is that you've been reporting about crashing card prices for about a year now, and we all know that Crypto has crashed from its peaks for quite a while now, so it would seem there's been a long enough time lag for comics and OA to start crashing too. 

Between Heritage, CC, Comiclink and Hake's, there are plenty of auctions going on regularly (not to mention Heritage's weekly auctions), so plenty of opportunities to see weakness in the market.  But I'm not seeing it. 

And an area that I follow particularly closely--vintage comic strips--is not only not crashing or merely stabilizing, but it's been going up!  In the case of Milton Caniff's strips, they're up exponentially.

You will see that weakness when I start selling, guaranteed.

[Humpty-Dumpty]

On 8/20/2022 at 7:27 AM, KirbyCollector said:

You posted you sold 95% of your collection and aren't buying anything more b/c prices are too high... so why are you here if you are not sharing your art or participating in the hobby? You can always doom post about the economy on Twitter or Reddit, if you so choose.

That is extremely offensive and elitist. I am here and have the right to be here. I do not need your approval or advice of where to go. And judging by your attitude towards me, I do not want it. Just do your emotional best to deal with me being here. 

[Humpty-Dumpty]

On 8/20/2022 at 8:54 AM, Rick2you2 said:

I have no idea how you can possibly support this conclusion. The economy had suffered a terrible jolt from COVID, but frankly, I think the government did pretty well considering we have never had anything like it under our modern economic system. Pumping money into the economy prevented a version of the Great Depression from occurring by growing the money supply. That led to current inflation, which is slowing down, but it allowed people to spend money, thereby preventing the 1930’s economic freeze where the government reduced the money supply. People are buying things. Jobs are available, even though there is a mismatch between skills and openings. Anti-trust actions should help bring back more competition and lower prices. Supply chain issues are being resolved. By the middle of next year, we should be staring at a real expansion. 

But that’s not to say the OA market won’t hit a bump—or where. There is so much material out there, and the pile keeps growing. Collectors will age out, with pricing reductions likely hitting middle quality and older “non-classic material”. With a newer generation liking experiences instead of things, Daddy’s precious pictures may end up in the drawer next to grandma’s silverware. Who knows? Maybe we should all just go out and buy game cartridge art. 

Well Rick, I think we could not be too much apart on this. I will reply to the points you have made in the order you made them. The government did not do a good job during the early 2020, to around mid/late 2021 period. In fact, they did abysmally with the core issue, then with the way they responded in an economic fashion. We are not supposed to get too much into politics here, so i won't, yet I needed to mention it because I think we can agree the two are connected. The fact that I cannot get too much into it hampers my rebuttal, suffice to say large segments of the economy could have been opened up that were forced to stay closed down. 

Concerning the fed printing money the way they did, do you know how much they printed? I am not asking for an exact number, just a roundabout figure. I do not know the exact number myself, I heard a number a few months ago, i cannot recall it, but I do know that it was stupendous, something like, and I could be off a little here, yet my fundamental point will be accurate - something like more than two to three times the money ever printed in the history of the United States before 2020. So where did all that money go? That is a relevant question. Because it sure did not go directly into the hands the hands of the American people. Before you say we all got checks, I am saying the amount relative to what was QE'ed to what we got was probably less then .5%. I would think if they wanted to revive the economy, they would want to put the money directly into the hands of the people who know best what they need to spend it on, no? Do you know what the fed balance sheet is right now? It is at an all-time unhealthy high.

So you say we dodged a depression. Fair enough comment taken by itself. Still, what I just postulated in the above paragraph, and will continue to add to, I think, supports that there were other ways to avoid a severe downturn and that the fed and treasury took about the worst path. You do realize all they did was kick an already well-worn can down the road, and this time not a decade or two out, but maybe three to four years out. They caged themselves. Now they have to raise interest rates, which will cripple this debt economy, and will do nothing to plug inflation. You say inflation is easing up. No, it is not. In fact, here is some bad news for you, the real genuine inflation rate is closer to 20%. I don't see food prices coming down, do you? In fact, expect certain foods to rise still more dramatically. Did you know that they do not include gas and home prices in their calculations? Furthermore, the people who are in power, who have a vested interest to remain in power, (and I am not pointing out any particular party) do you believe it's possible they may massage the numbers somewhat for political reasons? 

People are not buying things, if you are referring to non-necessity or big-ticket items. Did you know that credit card debt is at an all-time high, or close to it? What does that tell you?

Maybe, even probably, jobs are plentiful, I am not sure, so I won't press that. If they are, it does not seem to be doing much for the economy. 

No companies are coming back here from overseas in this current climate. Anti-trust actions and the resulting effects to see benefit take a long time. We need help now. Anti-trust is not going to do a thing to help us, or at the best negligible. The supply chains are a mess still. Do you know that a crucial additive for diesel fuel engines is in very short supply? Did you know that many big railroad companies will not ship fertilizer for the farmers? Did you know that about 125 food manufacturers, and/or distribution centers have experienced fires, bombings and other debilitating mishaps in the last 10 months?

Bro, by the middle of next year we are likely to be in a depression, or something close to it, if not sooner.

Edited August 21, 2022 by Humpty-Dumpty
Spelling

[Aahz]

I may be completely wrong (usually am), but to a certain extent I don't think it has anything to do with the economy.  The Sandman page I bought in 1994 for $125 has a bunch more 000 behind it now.  Same with the Sal Busmen Hulk pages for $10 each in 1996.  Now these are outliers because of their popularity.  However, the Bronze Age DC horror pages that I bough for $10 in 1997 probably reasonable retail for $100-150.  So they have all gone up in value, some more than others relative to inflation and CPI.  I think the question is, will pages like this continue to rise in value or will they top off at some point.  Now I will agree that the economy and global politics can/will have an effect as to the speed, and, yes, there could be a wholesale loss in interest in the field like Beanie Babies.  I think really that is what most people that love this as a hobby or whatever you call it at this price point want comfort in.  If they spend what they feel is a large amount, will it sustain.

[delekkerste]

On 8/19/2022 at 11:25 PM, tth2 said:

If there were no public sales at materially lower prices, then there is no objective data to support your thesis.  It is just speculation/theorizing on your part.

If you think this is just speculation/theorizing, you are not dealing in reality.  

On 8/19/2022 at 11:25 PM, tth2 said:

In other words, we will never see any appreciable dip in public prices. 

"Never"? Like, literally at no time, ever? Really? Is all of this some huge reverse jinx??

On 8/19/2022 at 11:54 PM, tth2 said:

Maybe comics and OA wouldn't have shot up so much without sports cards resetting the benchmarks for where assets could potentially appreciate to, but you still have to look at the source/quality of the funds that drove prices up. 

It appears clear now that the sports cards were purchased directly by Crypto Bros--the backward cap correlation between Crypto Bros and sports card buyers is extremely high.   

Were many comics and OA similarly purchased directly by Crypto Bros?  A 9.6 AF 15 or high grade mega-key like Action 1/Tec 27/Batman 1/Captain America 1, possibly.  But I'm still skeptical that some backward cap-wearing Bro would be interested in buying some mid-run book from some obscure Timely title that would be unknown and of no interest to anyone except a hardcore GA collector. 

We know that crypto and card bro money went into big keys - heck, we saw Ken Goldin himself buy a Tec 27 and an Action 1. I know other card guys who spent millions on GA and SA keys. Without the high end pulling everything else up, does everything else do as well as it did? I don't think so. 

On 8/19/2022 at 11:54 PM, tth2 said:

I also think that you underestimate how hyper-plugged in you are to all news of all investment assets and collectible assets compared to most normal people, and thus how much more aware of what's going on in other markets you are than many other collectors.  For example, but for reading the occasional post on these Boards about sports cards sales, or some headline in mainstream media about some earthshattering sports card sale (which I tend to read and then immediately dismiss as the craziness of a bunch of backward-cap wearing maroons), I would've been completely unaware of what was going on in that market.

Which is a long way of saying that in my opinion, the funding for the comics/OA purchases were more real and less speculative, and probably much less leveraged, so there will be much less pressure to sell in a panic as opposed to the Crypto/Sports Card Bros who can fund their multiple speculative purchases only so long as prices continue to rise.  

The card boom was impossible to ignore in 2020 and 2021. News stories everywhere, from local news stations covering the run on Target and Wal-Mart stores to cards being featured regularly on ESPN to celebrities and influencers showing off cards all over the place...if you were only tangentially aware of it, well, let's just leave it at #OKBoomer  

On 8/20/2022 at 12:04 AM, tth2 said:

Okay, I'm glad to see you acknowledging this very important distinction.

If an economic downturn starts to run for years, then sure, all bets are off as even financially solid collectors might decide to sell some of the family silver for various reasons.  Although if I look at the one large economy that has been mired in recession/no growth for several decades (Japan), there has not been a massive flood of family jewels into the market.

In any event, what's the longest economic downturn the US has had in the past few decades?  The post-Dotcom Bubble period?  If I recall, comics and OA moved up quite well during that period.  I wasn't following OA at that time, but comics were making quantum moves up during that period.

Dude, Japan crashed the entire global fine art market in 1990-1996.  

Comics did well in the post-dotcom bubble period because the micro-factors (introduction of third-party grading with CGC and the Internet spawning new sales platforms and increasing reach/access and transaction efficiency) swamped the macro factors. 
 

On 8/20/2022 at 9:01 AM, tth2 said:

All I'm saying is that you've been reporting about crashing card prices for about a year now, and we all know that Crypto has crashed from its peaks for quite a while now, so it would seem there's been a long enough time lag for comics and OA to start crashing too. 

Your hatred of backwards cap wearing card bros is causing you to lump the whole card market together. While it's true that much of the sports card market peaked around Feb-Mar 2021, it was mostly the low-to middle end of the market and some not-so-rare high-end cards (e.g. the 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan) that fell off a cliff.  Much of the really high end of the card market kept on rising until just a few months ago, when the reality of a deteriorating economy and tanking markets started to set in. Then it was like someone flicked a switch and things started reversing quickly out of nowhere. We may be seeing something similar starting to happen in a lot of real estate markets as well now, another market where you have been whistling past the graveyard while the red flags continue to pile up. 

And although crypto peaked last November, NFTs kept rising until May 2022 and the year/year crypto gains were still so big up to that point as well that the drawdown only really started to have knock-on effects regarding crypto bro spending in other markets after things really went into a death spiral soon after. So, there hasn't really been much of a lag at all, and it remains far too soon to say that we will get no dip in OA prices just because we haven't seen one yet when we may still be in the early innings of this economic & market downturn. Again, not saying that it will or has to happen, just that I think people are being far too cavalier about the potential for a downturn.  

Edited August 20, 2022 by delekkerste

[jjonahjameson11]

On 8/20/2022 at 9:44 AM, fsumavila said:

Um, so....er, how about all those Ross Andru Spider-Man pages in this auction? Andru Spidey pages rarely show up on Heritage auctions. Looks like some collectors (and maybe a dealer sitting on a big stash?) are finally letting some out.

 

They show up more often than you think.  Take a look at the historical sales of Andru Spidey pages on HA, and you’ll see for yourself.  

2016 was a huge year for sales of Andru ASM pages.

[tth2]

On 8/20/2022 at 7:53 PM, Rick2you2 said:

Which is where the much despised subject of “market support” bidding by dealers and auction houses, among others, comes into play. They can act to prevent any dip in public auction prices, and given the number of pieces up for auction this time, I would be a bit concerned about the higher end (or if known, any known owner concentrations of an artist’s art).

If it were that easy to support prices, there would never be any dip in public auction prices of anything.

But a coke dealer can only snort so much of his own inventory before he runs out of inventory and money. 

[tth2]

On 8/21/2022 at 7:51 AM, delekkerste said:

Dude, Japan crashed the entire global fine art market in 1990-1996.  

I don't know what's sitting in your closets and drawers at home, but I think "Portrait of Dr. Paul Gachet" goes beyond "family silver". 

My point was that the vast majority of Japanese households were not out hawking everything that wasn't nailed down in order to survive.

[tth2]

On 8/21/2022 at 7:51 AM, delekkerste said:

On 8/20/2022 at 11:25 AM, tth2 said:

In other words, we will never see any appreciable dip in public prices. 

"Never"? Like, literally at no time, ever? Really? Is all of this some huge reverse jinx??

Within the time frame that you were talking about (i.e., as the result of current macro factors).

And perhaps there is an element of wishful jinxing in my posts, because I've hardly bought any art for the past 2 years because it's been so expensive and then become even more so, so I wouldn't mind if prices came back down to earth.

Yet, while I hear many statements of the inevitability of crashing prices from you, and even accepting that there will be a time lag between comics/OA and sports cards and crypto, we should be seeing some manifestations by now.  But nothing so far, and zero indications that it's going to be happening in the current Heritage Signature auction.  

I am willing to change my opinions if I'm convinced by the data.  As you know, I was an inflation skeptic, but in the face of more than a year of overwhelming inflation data, I've obviously changed my tune.  I sold a lot of stock in January and April once it became clear that the Fed would have raise and raise a lot.  So show me the data of comic/OA equivalents of the Jordan/LeBron cards crashing and I'll be right there on the doom and gloom express with you. 

And no, conjecture that a prime Ditko page would sell for 40% less than a year ago if one came up on the market (publicly or privately), but none will because their owners don't want to and don't need to take that kind of hair cut, doesn't count as "data". 

Edited August 21, 2022 by tth2

[tth2]

On 8/21/2022 at 7:51 AM, delekkerste said:

We know that crypto and card bro money went into big keys - heck, we saw Ken Goldin himself buy a Tec 27 and an Action 1. I know other card guys who spent millions on GA and SA keys. Without the high end pulling everything else up, does everything else do as well as it did? I don't think so. 

Does that necessarily follow?  Weren't you the one that said that while prices of some cards had skyrocketed to insane levels, the vast majority of cards were still worthless?  That the rising tide of 1 of 1 super refractor emerald swatch Zion Williamson card prices was not lifting up mid-career Dave Kingman card prices (or maybe even Kingman rookie cards, I have no idea).

I totally get that Crypto and Card Bros might've been piling into AF 15s, Action 1s, etc.  But what I don't get is why would big sales of the biggest, most liquid keys in our hobby to Crypto Bros (or other collectors competing with said Crypto Bros) translate into staggeringly higher prices for some mid-run issue of All Select Comics?

Edited August 21, 2022 by tth2

[tth2]

On 8/21/2022 at 7:51 AM, delekkerste said:

Your hatred of backwards cap wearing card bros is causing you to lump the whole card market together.

It's not hatred.  More like disdain/contempt. 

[grapeape]

On 8/20/2022 at 8:43 PM, tth2 said:

It's not hatred.  More like disdain/contempt. 

[delekkerste]

On 8/20/2022 at 11:25 PM, tth2 said:

Yet, while I hear many statements of the inevitability of crashing prices from you, and even accepting that there will be a time lag between comics/OA 

No inevitability of crashing prices or doom and gloom from me, that's just straw man posturing on your part.

My only points are that (1) comics and comic art are not this magical pixie treasure that can only ever go up with zero downside volatility as you are making them out to be and (2) it's waaaaaay too soon to say that comics and OA have emerged unscathed from the current macro slowdown when the slowdown may just be getting started.

That said, the fact that we've reached this kind of late stage thinking that says prices can only ever go up with zero pullbacks because comics and OA are immune to real-world factors is...troubling.

Edited August 21, 2022 by delekkerste

[delekkerste]

On 8/20/2022 at 11:39 PM, tth2 said:

Does that necessarily follow?  Weren't you the one that said that while prices of some cards had skyrocketed to insane levels, the vast majority of cards were still worthless?  That the rising tide of 1 of 1 super refractor emerald swatch Zion Williamson card prices was not lifting up mid-career Dave Kingman card prices (or maybe even Kingman rookie cards, I have no idea).

I totally get that Crypto and Card Bros might've been piling into AF 15s, Action 1s, etc.  But what I don't get is why would big sales of the biggest, most liquid keys in our hobby to Crypto Bros (or other collectors competing with said Crypto Bros) translate into staggeringly higher prices for some mid-run issue of All Select Comics?

Not at all. Even the junkiest cards went up during the early 2020 to early 2021 boom. The rising tide literally lifted all boats. Until it didn't.

On 8/20/2022 at 11:25 PM, tth2 said:

And no, conjecture that a prime Ditko page would sell for 40% less than a year ago if one came up on the market (publicly or privately), but none will because their owners don't want to and don't need to take that kind of hair cut, doesn't count as "data". 

Great, so I'm going to pretend that my Fernando Tatis Jr. rookie cards serial numbered to 3 (I own two of the 3) are still worth what they were a month ago (pre-80 game suspension due to testing positive for steroids, for those who don't follow baseball) since we haven't had a public sale of my two cards or the third one out there. 

Impairment of value does not require public comps to prove it has occurred. 

(For the avoidance of doubt, no such impairment has yet occurred in the OA market, just speaking hypothetically).

Edited August 21, 2022 by delekkerste

[MyNameIsLegion]

On 8/20/2022 at 9:53 PM, tth2 said:

If it were that easy to support prices, there would never be any dip in public auction prices of anything.

But a coke dealer can only snort so much of his own inventory before he runs out of inventory and money. 

“Coke” dealers in the OA hobby have been propping up and pushing up prices for over a decade. They don’t have to win every lot, they just need to bid, and they do. If there’s any price pull back, dealers will just pick up cheaper inventory. There’s a half dozen whales that can do that for a considerable amount of time and blunt any steep price volatility. They’ve adapted their business model now that everyone is savvy enough not to sell in bulk to a dealer but go the auction route instead. However, those dealers have such an overwhelming native advantage from 20-30 years of hoarding art. Now they just need to prop up the market. Sure, the Bechara’s of the world will eventually burn out, but not the real deep inventory dealers.