NJ Art Con August 28th 3 3

[Humpty-Dumpty]

History has shown us that price escalation is a natural development in the collectibles markets. However, as we have witnessed time and again in our own lifetimes, and further back in time to the early nineteen hundreds (and even all the way back to the mid 1600s with the famous Dutch tulip bulb example). these extreme escalations in prices in such a short period of time inevitably incur a reversal, and often hard and relatively quickly. For the most part comic collectibles have never experienced that drastic decrease in value, like stocks and precious metals have in the past. However, we have never witnessed the dramatic rise in prices of OA and other comic collectibles like we recently have. This is new territory. How can this continue when we have a large and growing larger portion of the population struggling on a basic level to survive? The serious weakening of the economy won't eventually affect a sizable number of collectors? When that occurs, won't we experience a sell off?

[cloud cloddie]

On 9/4/2022 at 9:08 AM, Humpty-Dumpty said:

The serious weakening of the economy won't eventually affect a sizable number of collectors? When that occurs, won't we experience a sell off?

If anything, I’d think it would do the opposite and there’d be a selling freeze instead of a sell off. I could be wrong, but it seems like most collectors with substantial collections are relatively insulated against economic downturns. They can afford to just enjoy their art and wait it out. 

[Rick2you2]

On 9/4/2022 at 10:37 AM, The Voord said:

The raising of prices, in line with sales results of an ever- changing market, is a natural progression echoed in other businesses.  I sometimes think that too many ongoing auctions often deflect interest away from perfectly good art that's been sitting a while on dealers' sites . . . and collectors can either become complacent about such  inventory, or more focused on the buzz generated by the latest auction . . . maybe a combination of both.  From time to time, I've personally offered art for direct sale at stipulated asking prices with items going unsold.  Did I lower my prices?  No, I considered my asks FMV.  Instead, I consigned  a bunch of OA to auction (with reserves) where, in most cases, hammer prices were in excess of my original private asks.  

 

I learn something new every day. 

There really is “a sucker born every minute.” 

[Rick2you2]

On 9/4/2022 at 12:08 PM, Humpty-Dumpty said:

History has shown us that price escalation is a natural development in the collectibles markets. However, as we have witnessed time and again in our own lifetimes, and further back in time to the early nineteen hundreds (and even all the way back to the mid 1600s with the famous Dutch tulip bulb example). these extreme escalations in prices in such a short period of time inevitably incur a reversal, and often hard and relatively quickly. For the most part comic collectibles have never experienced that drastic decrease in value, like stocks and precious metals have in the past. However, we have never witnessed the dramatic rise in prices of OA and other comic collectibles like we recently have. This is new territory. How can this continue when we have a large and growing larger portion of the population struggling on a basic level to survive? The serious weakening of the economy won't eventually affect a sizable number of collectors? When that occurs, won't we experience a sell off?

Price escalation is one thing. Price escalation of existing inventory is what is so surprising to me. But my focus is very narrow; when something is old, or new, I am usually taking note of it and reacting then and there. 

[Humpty-Dumpty]

On 9/4/2022 at 9:47 AM, cloud cloddie said:

If anything, I’d think it would do the opposite and there’d be a selling freeze instead of a sell off. I could be wrong, but it seems like most collectors with substantial collections are relatively insulated against economic downturns. They can afford to just enjoy their art and wait it out. 

Could be - there are definitely a large number of collectors who won't flinch, yet I think an even larger amount are going to feel it. I guess we'll just have to wait and see. 

[jjonahjameson11]

On 9/4/2022 at 12:08 PM, Humpty-Dumpty said:

History has shown us that price escalation is a natural development in the collectibles markets. However, as we have witnessed time and again in our own lifetimes, and further back in time to the early nineteen hundreds (and even all the way back to the mid 1600s with the famous Dutch tulip bulb example). these extreme escalations in prices in such a short period of time inevitably incur a reversal, and often hard and relatively quickly. For the most part comic collectibles have never experienced that drastic decrease in value, like stocks and precious metals have in the past. However, we have never witnessed the dramatic rise in prices of OA and other comic collectibles like we recently have. This is new territory. How can this continue when we have a large and growing larger portion of the population struggling on a basic level to survive? The serious weakening of the economy won't eventually affect a sizable number of collectors? When that occurs, won't we experience a sell off?

Back in the very late 1980’s -early 1990’s, comic books experienced a significant spike in prices prior to, during, and post-recession.  The price spikes were so pronounced that Overstreet began to publish Quarterly price updates, and eventually, bi-monthly updates.

I can’t speak to OA values from that period as I wasn’t involved in that market.

 

[KirbyCollector]

Hey Rick and Humpty, why all the gloom today? Is your local Asian massage parlor or weed shop closed?

[Rick2you2]

On 9/4/2022 at 4:15 PM, KirbyCollector said:

Hey Rick and Humpty, why all the gloom today? Is your local Asian massage parlor or weed shop closed?

Ran out of shrooms.

[Bronty]

On 9/4/2022 at 10:37 AM, The Voord said:

The raising of prices, in line with sales results of an ever- changing market, is a natural progression echoed in other businesses.  I sometimes think that too many ongoing auctions often deflect interest away from perfectly good art that's been sitting a while on dealers' sites . . . and collectors can either become complacent about such  inventory, or more focused on the buzz generated by the latest auction . . . maybe a combination of both.  From time to time, I've personally offered art for direct sale at stipulated asking prices with items going unsold.  Did I lower my prices?  No, I considered my asks FMV.  Instead, I consigned  a bunch of OA to auction (with reserves) where, in most cases, hammer prices were in excess of my original private asks.  

 

My take is that a large number of those who think there is something wrong with raising asking prices, despite the item not selling, are mainly buyers and haven't done much selling.     Nothing wrong with that, but it explains the inability to see things from the other side of the table.

Any exploration into this idea can't help but come to the conclusion IMO that its a perfectly reasonable thing to do.     The comic dealer with a suddenly hot first appearance due to some movie announcement marks that sucker up.    Gas prices increasing?   Your service station marks up their unsold product.     Comic art comps suggesting an increased valuation for your piece?   Mark it up.   

At the end of the day, ASK prices are ASK prices.    People can ASK whatever the eff they want, and they can mark it up or down as they choose.    Its their property and they get to decide.    And the potential buyer gets to decide to pay, negotiate, or walk away.    What's the problem?    Buyers and sellers all have different motivations for selling, different concepts of FMV, and different degrees of desperation to buy or sell.    

There's also, IMO, a perception problem in dropping the ask price on art specifically.    Buyers who see a stale piece dropping in ask price should snap it up, but they don't seem to, in practice.     They seem to, for whatever reason, need a little FOMO boost, either from the piece going to auction and selling for certain, or from being generally aware the price will only rise.    

 

Edited September 5, 2022 by Bronty

[vodou]

Behavioral psychology applied to economic actors will forever be fascinating!

It may help some that struggle here to remember that original art is a luxury good not a box of washers at Home Depot. When was the last time you saw half price sale on Lamborghinis or Coach bags - that aren’t Thai knockoffs ;)

[Unstoppablejayd]

On 9/5/2022 at 10:16 AM, Bronty said:

My take is that a large number of those who think there is something wrong with raising asking prices, despite the item not selling, are mainly buyers and haven't done much selling.     Nothing wrong with that, but it explains the inability to see things from the other side of the table.

Any exploration into this idea can't help but come to the conclusion IMO that its a perfectly reasonable thing to do.     The comic dealer with a suddenly hot first appearance due to some movie announcement marks that sucker up.    Gas prices increasing?   Your service station marks up their unsold product.     Comic art comps suggesting an increased valuation for your piece?   Mark it up.   

At the end of the day, ASK prices are ASK prices.    People can ASK whatever the eff they want, and they can mark it up or down as they choose.    Its their property and they get to decide.    And the potential buyer gets to decide to pay, negotiate, or walk away.    What's the problem?    Buyers and sellers all have different motivations for selling, different concepts of FMV, and different degrees of desperation to buy or sell.    

There's also, IMO, a perception problem in dropping the ask price on art specifically.    Buyers who see a stale piece dropping in ask price should snap it up, but they don't seem to, in practice.     They seem to, for whatever reason, need a little FOMO boost, either from the piece going to auction and selling for certain, or from being generally aware the price will only rise.    

 

Agree 100%
 

I had this argument with a newbie collector who didn’t understand why dealers don’t lowers prices for stale inventory or negotiate more on it. 
 

my answer was simple and two part… if the pieces just appreciate while sitting in a binder why would they? And Second part for them to get new inventory they need to pay todays prices so why discount what they already have…

seems simple to me- they aren’t selling TVs which become obsolete or eggs that go bad…

[Ecclectica]

On 9/5/2022 at 4:16 PM, Bronty said:

Buyers who see a stale piece dropping in ask price should snap it up, but they don't seem to, in practice.

Ahem... Maybe you're right... however for my last purchase, I waited three months for a discount to arrive to buy the piece, which was clearly not an A-piece !

Guess I am an exception... (or maybe tight-fisted, even for second choice pieces !)

Edited September 5, 2022 by Ecclectica

[Rick2you2]

On 9/5/2022 at 10:39 AM, vodou said:

Behavioral psychology applied to economic actors will forever be fascinating!

It may help some that struggle here to remember that original art is a luxury good not a box of washers at Home Depot. When was the last time you saw half price sale on Lamborghinis or Coach bags - that aren’t Thai knockoffs ;)

 Consider this a comment generally to all three of you. I recognize your points, particularly as to hot artists, “classics” or subjects, but the truth is that a lot of OA is not and never will be hot even if technically a “luxury good”. It sits, lonely and forlorn, in Itoyas waiting patiently for the day that a 1 in 10,000 customer steps forward and thinks “Gee, I gotta have that John Byrne Next Men page” or the cartoon from a 1950’s humor magazine making a joke about sexual assault. I can see marking up a good set of lug nuts first. Are these Lamborghini’s? No. What about Coach Bags? Surprise, surprise, they will go on sale (probably not 50%) because dealers still have to move inventory. It’s clogging the arteries of commerce. And I have to tell you, Mr. Mustache (I love that) has some stale pieces, too. But hey, Bronty is right of course, he can always ask, and ask, and ask…

[Rick2you2]

On 9/5/2022 at 11:26 AM, Ecclectica said:

Ahem... Maybe you're right... however for my last purchase, I waited three months for a discount to arrive to buy the piece, which was clearly not an A-piece !

Guess I am an exception... (or maybe tight-fisted, even for second choice pieces !)

Not at all. I’ve been watching 3 pieces get slowly moldy since the beginning of the year when they were first offered at what looked like only 40% over market. Maybe after the new year. That’s my version of a punishment bid.

[KirbyCollector]

It is helpful to remember this stale inventory was purchased for, in may cases, peanuts. Carrying pages you paid $25 (or less) for 20 years ago while waiting for that 1 in 10,000 guy to buy it at 40x your original investment is no skin off your teeth.

Edited September 5, 2022 by KirbyCollector

[Ecclectica]

On 9/5/2022 at 5:43 PM, Rick2you2 said:

It sits, lonely and forlorn, in Itoyas waiting patiently for the day that a 1 in 10,000 customer steps forward and thinks “Gee, I gotta have that John Byrne Next Men page”

Jim Warden generally put the right prices on them... so he sells a lot of them !

Edited September 5, 2022 by Ecclectica

[Humpty-Dumpty]

On 9/4/2022 at 1:14 PM, jjonahjameson11 said:

Back in the very late 1980’s -early 1990’s, comic books experienced a significant spike in prices prior to, during, and post-recession.  The price spikes were so pronounced that Overstreet began to publish Quarterly price updates, and eventually, bi-monthly updates.

I can’t speak to OA values from that period as I wasn’t involved in that market.

 

The time you are referring to is not much comparable to what is going on today. 

[Bronty]

On 9/5/2022 at 11:43 AM, Rick2you2 said:

 Consider this a comment generally to all three of you. I recognize your points, particularly as to hot artists, “classics” or subjects, but the truth is that a lot of OA is not and never will be hot even if technically a “luxury good”. It sits, lonely and forlorn, in Itoyas waiting patiently for the day that a 1 in 10,000 customer steps forward and thinks “Gee, I gotta have that John Byrne Next Men page” or the cartoon from a 1950’s humor magazine making a joke about sexual assault. I can see marking up a good set of lug nuts first. Are these Lamborghini’s? No. What about Coach Bags? Surprise, surprise, they will go on sale (probably not 50%) because dealers still have to move inventory. It’s clogging the arteries of commerce. And I have to tell you, Mr. Mustache (I love that) has some stale pieces, too. But hey, Bronty is right of course, he can always ask, and ask, and ask…

Do you remember when everyone was freaking out over Bechara asking 65k for the What If #1 cover, only to have it sell at auction for $228k a couple years later?    You tell me why he should have discounted that.

[Rick2you2]

On 9/5/2022 at 12:12 PM, Bronty said:

Do you remember when everyone was freaking out over Bechara asking 65k for the What If #1 cover, only to have it sell at auction for $228k a couple years later?    You tell me why he should have discounted that.

He made a smart business decision. I never said he was dumb.

[Rick2you2]

On 9/5/2022 at 12:02 PM, Ecclectica said:

Jim Warden generally put the right prices on them... so he sells a lot of them !

Then I probably should have picked a better example. But, the point remains.