Collector (or Speculator) Fatigue 2 2

[JC25427N]

Anyone else experiencing Fatigue Fatigue

[kimik]

On 6/15/2023 at 6:13 AM, 1Cool said:

On 6/14/2023 at 9:09 PM, FlyingDonut said:

I am giving some thought to trying to buy back my Fantastic Four 9.8 run. I sold them at the absolute apex of the market and Mrs. Donut now has a beautiful new kitchen. I probably could get them for 60% less than I sold them for.

That is my question in a nut shell - are you really missing the books and are you serious about buying the collection back?  I'd think people like yourself will have just moved on to buying other stuff and will not have the energy or desire to buy back all those books that you sold.  The next couple years will be really telling in terms of how the market will go over the next couple decades.

I am in the same situation as FD as I sold all of the Marvel SA keys and higher value BA keys I had in April - June 2021. I did not get absolute peak value on all of them, but close enough. I am tempted to rebuild my X-Men run as it is my favourite title and most books are down 50sih% from where I sold them, but if history repeats then there will be time for that just like there was after the 90s implosion. The other title I collect, Batman, has not see much of pullback and is continuing to run. I should have kept those keys.......

That being said, I am getting close to 50 now, I doubt I will rebuild the runs I had though. I have owned all of the major SA keys (except for FF 1 as I did not ever want a copy) several times over and do not need to revisit that. I may pick away at GA books from time to time, but my focus is more on selling books to invest the funds elsewhere or pay for stuff with my family. If history repeats then we will not see another crazy price spike for 30 years - at that point I do not really want to have a significant amount of value tied up in relatively illiquid paper products.

Edited June 15, 2023 by kimik

[universal soldier]

RE: Wizard Pricing. I used to buy and reference Wizard pricing in the late 90's for a number of years. While I only experienced on the spot Wizard pricing once, I remember one issue had Amazing Spider-man annual #27 priced @ $60 instead of $6 due to a misplaced decimal point during printing. The following weekend at a con in Boston at leadst two vendors had issues as wall books for $60. I noped my way right past their tables.

[MAR1979]

On 6/15/2023 at 2:26 PM, universal soldier said:

RE: Wizard Pricing. I used to buy and reference Wizard pricing in the late 90's for a number of years. While I only experienced on the spot Wizard pricing once, I remember one issue had Amazing Spider-man annual #27 priced @ $60 instead of $6 due to a misplaced decimal point during printing. The following weekend at a con in Boston at leadst two vendors had issues as wall books for $60. I noped my way right past their tables.

I bet if you had offered $40, they would have told you they would be selling it at a loss.

Edited June 16, 2023 by MAR1979

[Ryan.]

On 6/15/2023 at 10:16 AM, Cman429 said:

Someone offers $200 and he turns into Hamlet pondering the meaning of life before accepting.

[D2]

On 6/15/2023 at 1:50 PM, kimik said:

... but my focus is more on selling books to invest the funds elsewhere or pay for stuff with my family. If history repeats then we will not see another crazy price spike for 30 years - at that point I do not really want to have a significant amount of value tied up in relatively illiquid paper products.

This is where I am at.

I don't know if I have the ambition to spend that much money on comics.

I'll always collect. I don't think there's any way around that for me, but big ticket books that are going to cost me $3,000+ each, are gone.

I want to keep my collection value under $20,000. Total. $20,000 is a number I can buy/sell/buy again, sell again... and if the market implodes and never recovers... or if the market just loathes my taste in books to a point where I can't even sell them, $20,000 is a crappy loss, but it won't impact my life to the point where it would change it.

[Jaylam]

The only "fatigue" I have is reading the "Where in the world was the Quality Control at CGC???" thread. Disappointing and depressing that they can't seem to clean up their act.

[justafan]

Oh man what a downer this thread is. I'm at heroes con this weekend and it has been a great convention. It's so refreshing to see so many dealers willing to make a deal. I was not going to spend much and planned to just browse and get some sigs or commish's but from day 1 many dealers were already offering discounts on common books. Books that months ago were going for cover price or double were now priced to move at 25% to 50% off and still taking more discounts on bulk or cash offers. I ended up buying several stacks of 20 books from different dealers. Same for stabbed moderns. Picked up some nice slabs at 10-20% off gpa 90 day prices. 

Great,  this is turning into a con report. Well liquidity is the key here and dealers need to move inventory to churn and reinvest. I was also pleased to hear that dealers were willing to work with me on raw and graded key book prices which was unheard of 8 months ago. However. I couldn't take advantage of it as I'm tapped out and my money is all tied up in CDs, bonds and other investments. About half the dealers had 2021 prices but offering 20-30%discouts while another 30% had dropped prices by 20% from the peak, and the rest were still living in 2021.  Some dealers flat out were firm on 2021 prices and were underwater.  I saw buyers walk away from negotiations more often than in the past but I also saw more dealers walk away from buying books off customers unless they were high demand items so everyone is feeling the pain. I also stayed the hell away from new book variants. I'd normally spend $500-1000 on new releases and variants but stuck to filling gaps in my runs and looking for pre-2020 prices.

Let's face it. We are all going to end up taking a loss. Dealers need to just eat it now, write it off as a loss, and look to make it back on reinvestment at corrected prices that they can flip later and customers will have to eat a loss on peak priced books we bought but need to sell to fund upgrades or new books. As I've said in another forum. I'd sell all my keys for $1 if I could upgrade them for $2-$5. 

[1Cool]

On 6/17/2023 at 11:29 PM, justafan said:

Oh man what a downer this thread is. I'm at heroes con this weekend and it has been a great convention. It's so refreshing to see so many dealers willing to make a deal. I was not going to spend much and planned to just browse and get some sigs or commish's but from day 1 many dealers were already offering discounts on common books. Books that months ago were going for cover price or double were now priced to move at 25% to 50% off and still taking more discounts on bulk or cash offers. I ended up buying several stacks of 20 books from different dealers. Same for stabbed moderns. Picked up some nice slabs at 10-20% off gpa 90 day prices. 

Great,  this is turning into a con report. Well liquidity is the key here and dealers need to move inventory to churn and reinvest. I was also pleased to hear that dealers were willing to work with me on raw and graded key book prices which was unheard of 8 months ago. However. I couldn't take advantage of it as I'm tapped out and my money is all tied up in CDs, bonds and other investments. About half the dealers had 2021 prices but offering 20-30%discouts while another 30% had dropped prices by 20% from the peak, and the rest were still living in 2021.  Some dealers flat out were firm on 2021 prices and were underwater.  I saw buyers walk away from negotiations more often than in the past but I also saw more dealers walk away from buying books off customers unless they were high demand items so everyone is feeling the pain. I also stayed the hell away from new book variants. I'd normally spend $500-1000 on new releases and variants but stuck to filling gaps in my runs and looking for pre-2020 prices.

Let's face it. We are all going to end up taking a loss. Dealers need to just eat it now, write it off as a loss, and look to make it back on reinvestment at corrected prices that they can flip later and customers will have to eat a loss on peak priced books we bought but need to sell to fund upgrades or new books. As I've said in another forum. I'd sell all my keys for $1 if I could upgrade them for $2-$5. 

From a sellers stand point your post isn’t exactly a ray of sunshine.

[MAR1979]

On 6/18/2023 at 8:06 AM, 1Cool said:

From a sellers stand point your post isn’t exactly a ray of sunshine.

Sellers with true business acumen adapt and will be fine. But you have some sellers right here on this forum who somehow do not believe cash flow is a good thing.

Link to a good paper that explains in simple terms why cash flow is more important than profit; https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiW-pr4gc3_AhV0E1kFHVt4AooQFnoECA8QAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.unomaha.edu%2Fnebraska-business-development-center%2F_files%2Fpublications%2Fcash-flow.pdf&usg=AOvVaw0MCQu1LCNH8Z9nJPa4dF_g&opi=89978449

Also important to note for pretty much their first decade Amazon lost money but had huge cash flow.

[LowGradeBronze]

I had more collecting fatigue during the highest price years, since I couldn't see myself being able to afford any of the books I still wanted even in lower grades. Although prices haven't dipped much yet in real terms, since sellers don't want to lose out, I can at least find a few relative bargains now. These are just comics after all, they're not made of gold! I think prices will stay stubbornly high for a while yet. By the time some sellers are willing to come down, other folk will be too preoccupied with keeping a roof over their head to even think of buying such luxuries as comics.

[L'Angelo Misterioso]

I will admit to having fantasized about a massive price crash to the point where saying "I'm going to build a complete 1938-1945 run of Adventure Comics" doesn't sound completely insane. Many of you would probably be greatly pissed off by such an unlikely event though 

[Telegan]

On 6/14/2023 at 10:57 AM, MAR1979 said:

I was reading go collect earlier - you know where Matt Tuck shamelessly tries to hype any comic for which he has multiple copies to sell - yet another ponderous, self-serving "article" on Spider-Verse alleged "investments" and I got to thinking...

How many collectors are going to seek all these books most of which in few months will sell for a fraction of their hype induced cost?   Seems to me Collector's Fatigue will only increase and those clueless folks who buy stuff when hot will jump off the treadmill.  As the number of those jumping off increases expect less books without true substance to become hot and when they do - cool down faster and faster. IMHO it's good thing but of course I don't sell comics so no bias that comes from lost income or prospect thereof.

As others have said, I think there's a difference between "collecting" and "speculating".  If you're going to speculate, you better understand how many of what you're speculating on exists out there and the fact that comics aren't exactly a "liquid" investment - it may take time to sell them, and when you do, so will a few thousand other people. Hello price crash.  lol.

Collecting to me means you buy what you like, whether it be keys, cool covers, great story arcs, all things Stan Lee, etc.  You collect without necessarily any regard to future price of what you're buying.  I gave up on collecting comics back in the 90's, and in the past 2 or 3 years gave up on modern comics for much of the same reason.  I just collect GA/SA and some BA nowadays.  Seems like a lot more unique or "different" stuff from those eras without 20 different variants of every issue or rebooting series every year.

I've read some of the stuff Tuck writes, and I don't have anything against him.  I don't know if he's trying to promote stuff he's trying to sell, either.  But he does cater a lot of times to speculators, but I just don't care about speculation that much, so I don't hate it if he does write articles about speculation.  Speculators are their own segment of the market just like collectors.

So, I have no collector fatigue at all.  As a matter of fact, I've been collecting more of the stuff I like now that prices are correcting in some segments of the market.

[MAR1979]

 

On 6/14/2023 at 11:57 AM, MAR1979 said:

I was reading go collect earlier - you know where Matt Tuck shamelessly tries to hype any comic for which he has multiple copies to sell - yet another ponderous, self-serving "article" on Spider-Verse alleged "investments" and I got to thinking...

How many collectors are going to seek all these books most of which in few months will sell for a fraction of their hype induced cost?   Seems to me Collector's Fatigue will only increase and those clueless folks who buy stuff when hot will jump off the treadmill.  As the number of those jumping off increases expect less books without true substance to become hot and when they do - cool down faster and faster. IMHO it's good thing but of course I don't sell comics so no bias that comes from lost income or prospect thereof.

 

On 6/19/2023 at 2:50 AM, Telegan said:

As others have said, I think there's a difference between "collecting" and "speculating".  If you're going to speculate, you better understand how many of what you're speculating on exists out there and the fact that comics aren't exactly a "liquid" investment - it may take time to sell them, and when you do, so will a few thousand other people. Hello price crash.  lol.

Collecting to me means you buy what you like, whether it be keys, cool covers, great story arcs, all things Stan Lee, etc.  You collect without necessarily any regard to future price of what you're buying.  I gave up on collecting comics back in the 90's, and in the past 2 or 3 years gave up on modern comics for much of the same reason.  I just collect GA/SA and some BA nowadays.  Seems like a lot more unique or "different" stuff from those eras without 20 different variants of every issue or rebooting series every year.

I've read some of the stuff Tuck writes, and I don't have anything against him.  I don't know if he's trying to promote stuff he's trying to sell, either.  But he does cater a lot of times to speculators, but I just don't care about speculation that much, so I don't hate it if he does write articles about speculation.  Speculators are their own segment of the market just like collectors.

So, I have no collector fatigue at all.  As a matter of fact, I've been collecting more of the stuff I like now that prices are correcting in some segments of the market.

Actually from what you have wrote you did have modern collecting fatigue and smartly moved to other segments of the hobby, I think that supports my premise.  Many though I feel do not migrate as you did they are now simply leaving the hobby. Especially the younger they are and have only picked up comics thinking they will make easy money like they may have in 2020-early 2022, now they are learning loss on ROI is just as likely as gain. 

[NewWorldOrder]

On 6/14/2023 at 11:12 AM, Ken Aldred said:

Sure that made a lot of readers give up.  

Most of what was turning up each week at the LCS was utter garbage, and beyond a certain point anyone with a modicum of common sense would stop wasting money on it and give up the ghost completely, or at least become extremely selective, which still meant a significant downturn in general sales volume for sellers, either way.

I recall the owner of a store getting a bit irate and sarcastic with me when I cut back drastically on my standing orders, but, it’s obviously a case of being offered something that’s actually worth buying for the cover price, not just blindly going along with another’s sense of entitlement and complacency, an issue of adaptation which would soon afterwards prove to have devastating effects for many outlets during that period.

90's were bad for comics, but honestly since 2010 most of these new books that are coming out makes me question how any LCS can make money off this DREK.

Even when I was a kid in the 90's I thought Marvel and DC had some of the worst artists and writers in comic book history, then 2010 started and said "hold my beer."

Edited June 19, 2023 by NewWorldOrder

[Old Fashion PB and J]

On 6/15/2023 at 1:42 PM, JC25427N said:

Anyone else experiencing Fatigue Fatigue

Yes as well as lower back pain.

[NewWorldOrder]

On 6/15/2023 at 10:50 AM, kimik said:

I am in the same situation as FD as I sold all of the Marvel SA keys and higher value BA keys I had in April - June 2021. I did not get absolute peak value on all of them, but close enough. I am tempted to rebuild my X-Men run as it is my favourite title and most books are down 50sih% from where I sold them, but if history repeats then there will be time for that just like there was after the 90s implosion. The other title I collect, Batman, has not see much of pullback and is continuing to run. I should have kept those keys.......

That being said, I am getting close to 50 now, I doubt I will rebuild the runs I had though. I have owned all of the major SA keys (except for FF 1 as I did not ever want a copy) several times over and do not need to revisit that. I may pick away at GA books from time to time, but my focus is more on selling books to invest the funds elsewhere or pay for stuff with my family. If history repeats then we will not see another crazy price spike for 30 years - at that point I do not really want to have a significant amount of value tied up in relatively illiquid paper products.

You are just going through the normal cycle of collecting life.

We are just curators of comics until they day we die.

I knew in my 20's that when I am over 50 it's a good bet I will begin to sell most of my comics. 

As you age you get bored with most of it, since like you said you have owned it all.

Just as in my 20s I sold most of my new books to focus on back issues or Keys.

During childhood you love everything then life compounds starting at age16. You want a car, girls, career, marriage, kids etc. That makes it tough to stay solely focus on comic or anything you want to collect.

Basically the first time you have to cut back on newer books you start the grim process of downsizing your collection until you are dead.  Happy Monday!

Edited June 19, 2023 by NewWorldOrder

[Stefan_W]

On 6/19/2023 at 10:51 AM, NewWorldOrder said:

As you age you get bored with most of it, since like you said you have owned it all.

This is so true. I have owned many copies of most of the SA keys and they don't really get me excited anymore. Once I hit about 50 or so I find myself selling off my PC every couple of years and starting fresh with different books. I get bored with the books I own, sell them off, pick up different books that I think are cool, and lather-rinse-repeat. 

[theCapraAegagrus]

I now have auction fatigue. Sick of being outbid quickly.

[fishbone]

Buy what you love .... if you aren't doing this, there is no "collector" in defining you 

Full stop.