How complete is the GA Census? 0

[clarkkentdds]

In another 10-20 years, will the census for rare HG material be double? Triple?

What are the chances top census GA (or Atomic Age)  books will stand as top in 10-20 years from now?

Interested in opinions..

Edited October 3, 2023 by clarkkentdds

[Paul © ® ⚽️💙™]

[Cat-Man_America]

On 10/3/2023 at 3:09 PM, clarkkentdds said:

In another 10-20 years, will the census for rare HG material be double? Triple?

What are the chances top census GA (or Atomic Age)  books will stand as top in 10-20 years from now?

Interested in opinions..

Very difficult to predict because of crack-out & press grade bump resubmissions, but most high grades should retain their top tier status. And, those books that get knocked out of top spot may still be considered as "best" by collectors dependent on the perception of laxness or tightness of grading at any particular point in time.

I don't expect many new collections of uniquely high grade raw books will pop up ...some perhaps, but that number diminishes over time. Also, the census is a tricky thing because there isn't just one third-party grading company with a census.  That means calculating the actual number of graded books or high grade copies in the marketplace at any given time can't be accurately estimated through just one census. 

Food for thought!

[jimbo_7071]

On 10/3/2023 at 4:09 PM, clarkkentdds said:

In another 10-20 years, will the census for rare HG material be double? Triple?

What are the chances top census GA (or Atomic Age)  books will stand as top in 10-20 years from now?

Interested in opinions..

I think there are still many high-grade books out there in 2nd-owner collections. Top census books that are 9.6s or 9.8s have a good shot at retaining their positions, but 9.0s and 9.2s? Nope.

It's hard to put numbers to anything, but my impression is that for any GA book, there are far more raw copies out there than slabbed copies.

[thehumantorch]

On 10/3/2023 at 8:35 PM, jimbo_7071 said:

I think there are still many high-grade books out there in 2nd-owner collections. Top census books that are 9.6s or 9.8s have a good shot at retaining their positions, but 9.0s and 9.2s? Nope.

It's hard to put numbers to anything, but my impression is that for any GA book, there are far more raw copies out there than slabbed copies.

Agreed. Guys like Bill Mummy constantly post GA books on facebook and they talk about comics are meant to be opened and read.  There are lots of old school collectors who don't grade their books.

Edited October 4, 2023 by thehumantorch
splln

[lou_fine]

On 10/3/2023 at 7:35 PM, jimbo_7071 said:

It's hard to put numbers to anything, but my impression is that for any GA book, there are far more raw copies out there than slabbed copies.

My own personal opinion is that the best top end GA books are still being held raw in personal collections by long time collectors from back in the days long before CGC was even a thought in anybody's mind.  

Especially since there's absolutley no real reason (save for rising grading fees) at all to have a book graded and slabbed until it comes time to sell it.  

[Professor K]

On 10/3/2023 at 5:09 PM, Paul (GG) © ® ™⚽️💙 said:

Ok it's Twine. String. It's Unraveling. String unraveling. Thread? Let's unravel this thread and hear what everyone has to say? No that's stupid. This is a tough one. I give up. Little help anyone?

I concur with everything said thus far. What do you mean by Top Census? Highest graded in general of any particular book right? I think probably 95+% of the top graded copies of any book currently on the cgc census will always be right where there are now, on top. Upper mid grade copies like 7.5's to 9.0's will increase depending on the scarcity of the book.  Like Batman and Superman books for example will surely have many more high grade copies being graded as time goes by but the scarcer stuff with say less than around 30 currently on the census........Very few, say 8.5 or better, will ever be added. 

 

 

[Professor K]

On 10/4/2023 at 1:12 AM, lou_fine said:

My own personal opinion is that the best top end GA books are still being held raw in personal collections by long time collectors from back in the days long before CGC was even a thought in anybody's mind.  

Especially since there's absolutley no real reason (save for rising grading fees) at all to have a book graded and slabbed until it comes time to sell it.  

We both posted completely different opinions at the same time. I know there are guys and gals out there with some seriously nice mostly ungraded collections. Scarce books, expensive books. But to me "Top End" is usually 9.0 to 9.6 with most books and most books that have examples currently graded in that grade range might have maybe 2 or 4 on the census at best. You think a lot of people are still holding books that nice in the wild?

Edited October 4, 2023 by Professor K
spelling correction

[lou_fine]

On 10/3/2023 at 10:21 PM, Professor K said:

You think a lot of people are still holding books that nice in the wild?

Yes, with the perfect example being how many or what percentage of the key Allentown, Church, or Larson books have been graded and slabbed?  

My thinking is that many of these books are still being held by the old time collectors and if they aren't yet planning to sell them, having them graded, slabbed, and added into a ballooning census count would serve only to hurt their value going forward.  In addition, being old time collectors, having them slabbed means that they wouldn't be able to enjoy them the way they were meant to be enjoyed.  

[Telegan]

There's no telling how many collections are waiting to be found out there.  The Feed Store collection, Bobby Blue collection, etc. all had some high(er) grade classics in them.  I'd be more concerned about Silver Age onwards than Golden Age, but still, there's still a shot there are some hidden gem collections out there.  I'm guessing most of the raw ones that are still floating around will be hard-pressed to be 9's or even 8's if people are into flipping through them or reading them, but who knows.

[lou_fine]

On 10/3/2023 at 10:42 PM, Telegan said:

There's no telling how many collections are waiting to be found out there.  The Feed Store collection, Bobby Blue collection, etc. all had some high(er) grade classics in them. 

I would tend to agree with you that there are probably not that many more Original Owner GA collections out there just waiting to be unearthed, like the Promise Collection and the likes.  

What I am referring to are more in terms of the 2nd owner collections which were built up by long time comic collectors who went out and purchased many of the high grade top end pedigree books back some 30 to 50 years ago.  

[Cat-Man_America]

On 10/4/2023 at 12:42 AM, Telegan said:

There's no telling how many collections are waiting to be found out there.  The Feed Store collection, Bobby Blue collection, etc. all had some high(er) grade classics in them.  I'd be more concerned about Silver Age onwards than Golden Age, but still, there's still a shot there are some hidden gem collections out there.  I'm guessing most of the raw ones that are still floating around will be hard-pressed to be 9's or even 8's if people are into flipping through them or reading them, but who knows.

The handling and subsequent grading is the issue, but hard pressing is always a possibility!  

[Telegan]

On 10/4/2023 at 1:54 AM, Cat-Man_America said:

The handling and subsequent grading is the issue, but hard pressing is always a possibility!  

As I typed that, I said to myself "somebody's gonna make a pressing joke..."

[jimbo_7071]

On 10/4/2023 at 1:21 AM, Professor K said:

We both posted completely different opinions at the same time. I know there are guys and gals out there with some seriously nice mostly ungraded collections. Scarce books, expensive books. But to me "Top End" is usually 9.0 to 9.6 with most books and most books that have examples currently graded in that grade range might have maybe 2 or 4 on the census at best. You think a lot of people are still holding books that nice in the wild?

Many of the most sought-after Edgar Church / Mile High books were scooped up in the late 70s/early 80s and have never been slabbed or re-sold. The same is probably true for many San Francisco books; I wouldn't be surprised if many of those have been sitting in the same 2nd-owner collections since the 70s.

On 10/4/2023 at 1:29 AM, lou_fine said:

Yes, with the perfect example being how many or what percentage of the key Allentown, Church, or Larson books have been graded and slabbed?  

My thinking is that many of these books are still being held by the old time collectors and if they aren't yet planning to sell them, having them graded, slabbed, and added into a ballooning census count would serve only to hurt their value going forward.  In addition, being old time collectors, having them slabbed means that they wouldn't be able to enjoy them the way they were meant to be enjoyed.  

Back in the 80s, I used to read every GA book I bought—once, with extreme care. After that, it never left its Archive. I don't know that old school collectors were reading their high-grade copies. I think that most guys who wanted to read books collected lower-grade books or bought second "reading" copies.

GA books aren't too fragile; I think it's the Atom Age books with flimsier covers that are less likely to surface in top grade. This GA book still slabbed out as a 9.4 despite my having read it. (I bought it in '88 and did not have it pressed.)

Edited October 4, 2023 by jimbo_7071

[Paul © ® ⚽️💙™]

On 10/4/2023 at 6:14 AM, Professor K said:

Ok it's Twine. String. It's Unraveling. String unraveling. Thread? Let's unravel this thread and hear what everyone has to say? No that's stupid. This is a tough one. I give up. Little help anyone?

I concur with everything said thus far. What do you mean by Top Census? Highest graded in general of any particular book right? I think probably 95+% of the top graded copies of any book currently on the cgc census will always be right where there are now, on top. Upper mid grade copies like 7.5's to 9.0's will increase depending on the scarcity of the book.  Like Batman and Superman books for example will surely have many more high grade copies being graded as time goes by but the scarcer stuff with say less than around 30 currently on the census........Very few, say 8.5 or better, will ever be added. 

 

 

The point of the picture was....How long is a piece of string?   

[Robot Man]

On 10/4/2023 at 1:04 AM, jimbo_7071 said:

Many of the most sought-after Edgar Church / Mile High books were scooped up in the late 70s/early 80s and have never been slabbed or re-sold. The same is probably true for many San Francisco books; I wouldn't be surprised if many of those have been sitting in the same 2nd-owner collections since the 70s.

Back in the 80s, I used to read every GA book I bought—once, with extreme care. After that, it never left its Archive. I don't know that old school collectors were reading their high-grade copies. I think that most guys who wanted to read books collected lower-grade books or bought second "reading" copies.

GA books aren't too fragile; I think it's the Atom Age books with flimsier covers that are less likely to surface in top grade. This GA book still slabbed out as a 9.4 despite my having read it. (I bought it in '88 and did not have it pressed.)

I have a nice pile of Church, SF, Larson and other pedigree books I bought way back in the day from the original sellers. I have never slabbed any and have read or at least carefully handled more than once. All are in the same shape as when I got them. It’s all about how careful you are with them. It is a true pleasure to see the gloss, white pages, the smell and the experience to me. Can’t do that in a slab. They just are a “commodity” slabbed and no longer what they were intended for. 

[sfcityduck]

On 10/3/2023 at 10:55 PM, lou_fine said:

 

What I am referring to are more in terms of the 2nd owner collections which were built up by long time comic collectors who went out and purchased many of the high grade top end pedigree books back some 30 to 50 years ago.  

^This^

(1) There are the folks with unslabbed pedigrees (Mile Highs, Larsons, SF, Okajimas etc.) bought before CGC became a thing as Bob just evidenced and Anderson, Verzyl, etc. have long been the well-known examples.

(2) There are folks who acquired pedigree worthy groups of comics who just haven’t bothered to sub them to CGC yet.  The Chinatown story of delayed submission is not going to be unique.

(3) There are the folks who were collectors at the dawn of modern fandom  BEFORE pedigrees were a thing sitting on great books that are largely shrouded by the secrecy that appears common for that era of collectors. BangZoom is not alone. 

(4) Finally, we could see another OO die and yield a new pedigree - although I believe that is the smallest potential piece of the puzzle.

Edited October 4, 2023 by sfcityduck

[Professor K]

Ok so you have all taught and convinced me that there are lots of high grade books and collections out there.  Well, a lot more than I would have guessed.

Pedigrees, not pedigrees. Plenty still out there. This is fact.

So to completely answer the question put forth by the op, how will the census look in 20 or more years? I suppose it's a question with no real answer as how can anyone guess with any accuracy how many of those high grade books will be submitted for grading from this point on. 

[sfcityduck]

On 10/4/2023 at 10:55 AM, Professor K said:

So to completely answer the question put forth by the op, how will the census look in 20 or more years? I suppose it's a question with no real answer as how can anyone guess with any accuracy how many of those high grade books will be submitted for grading from this point on. 

Most folks won't submit the books for grading unless they intend to sell in the short term or have no desire to read them and want to save money off the CGC fee (which keep moving up as do the high end comic prices on which some fees are based) when they do finally want to sell.  

So I think the key question is: Do the owners of the collections have kids who are interested in comics?  Some key one's do. Absent an estate tax necessity, those kids would have no need to sell. Certainly the Verzyl family has not been rushing to sell the really big books. And DA's kid appears to be making a successful career in comics so I would guess it unlikely he'll want to sell his father's collection.  Which might mean that the very biggest books don't get encapsulated for more than 20 years if ever.

[lou_fine]

On 10/3/2023 at 10:14 PM, Professor K said:

I think probably 95+% of the top graded copies of any book currently on the cgc census will always be right where there are now, on top.

........Very few, say 8.5 or better, will ever be added. 

 

On 10/4/2023 at 1:04 AM, jimbo_7071 said:

Many of the most sought-after Edgar Church / Mile High books were scooped up in the late 70s/early 80s and have never been slabbed or re-sold. The same is probably true for many San Francisco books; I wouldn't be surprised if many of those have been sitting in the same 2nd-owner collections since the 70s.

As per my previous post here, I would definitely tend to agree with jimbo here as I believe there are still many 8.5's or better waiting to be graded. 

As a sample test of this, I took a look at the number of unique Allentown books (i.e. excludes multiple sales of the same book) that have shown up for auction on Heritage and CC over the years.  Took the Allentown collection as this is the GA pedigree with the samllest number of books in it making it a lot easier and manageable to track.  So, out of the total of 135 extant books within the Allentown pedigree collection, it looks like only 32 copies have gone through Heritage and CC combined for a percentage total of under 24%.  If you toss in the 2 or 3 copies that were auctioned off in the Greg Manning Auctions and have not gone through HA or CC, you are still left with only about 25% of the total collection.  Of course, there might have been other auction sites which had Allentown books go through without making an appearance on either HA or CC, but I highly doubt it would have been very many.  

So if the other top GA pedigrees mirror the Allentown Collection in terms of the percentage graded and slabbed, I believe there are still very many 8.5's or better yet to be added into the census.