Giant Size X-Men #1 Just Graded 9.9. It Begins..... 7 7

[october]

From the dawn of CGC until a month ago: 28 total CGC 9.9 Wolverine 1 minis out of 28,000 subs. So basically 1/1000. 

Last month to this month: 10 newly slabbed 9.9 Wolverine 1 minis. 

That's esentially statistically impossible without a change in grading standards and a conscious push to move the effective top of the scale from 9.8 to 9.9. 

 

Good luck to the guys collecting top census common books.

[RockMyAmadeus]

On 5/29/2024 at 11:54 AM, october said:

That's essentially statistically impossible without a change in grading standards and a conscious push to move the effective top of the scale from 9.8 to 9.9. 

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

[Chip Cataldo]

On 5/29/2024 at 2:54 PM, october said:

That's esentially statistically impossible without a change in grading standards and a conscious push to move the effective top of the scale from 9.8 to 9.9.

Grading/slabbing a comic is, and always will be, a scam.

It's just a way for the rich in this hobby  to get richer.

[LordRahl]

On 5/29/2024 at 11:48 AM, october said:

If I was a 9.8 bronze/copper/modern key collector I would be selling everything. Like RIGHT NOW.

You're not the first person to say this and I just don't get the rationale. Modern - sure, there are already a bunch of 9.9s and 10's so now there will be more. OK. Copper - maybe, there are enough pristine copper books out there that maybe there will be a large enough influx of 9.9 and 10s to satisfy demand at the uber high end. But Bronze? Really? You think there are enough pristine copies out there that all of a sudden there will be 40, 50 or more copies in 9.9 and 10? I don't buy it. Take ASM 121 as an example. Heavily submitted, expensive at 9.8. There are 86 copies in 9.8 and none higher. You think all of a sudden, what, 40 will show up 9.9/10? If even 5 show up in 9.9/10, it will have no effect on the 9.8 market. And I'm highly skeptical that 5 will show up in those grades in the next 3-4 years. You would need similar numbers to what is currently top census (86) to have much of an effect on what a 9.8 goes for and there is no way that many are showing up anytime soon. 

[Stefan_W]

On 5/29/2024 at 2:54 PM, october said:

From the dawn of CGC until a month ago: 28 total CGC 9.9 Wolverine 1 minis out of 28,000 subs. So basically 1/1000. 

Last month to this month: 10 newly slabbed 9.9 Wolverine 1 minis. 

That's esentially statistically impossible without a change in grading standards and a conscious push to move the effective top of the scale from 9.8 to 9.9. 

 

Good luck to the guys collecting top census common books.

Not quite how stats work. 

"Highly unlikely" would be better, and including the actual likelihood would be best. Just leaving out the part with stats and just saying it is your opinion also works. 

[october]

On 5/29/2024 at 3:14 PM, LordRahl said:

You're not the first person to say this and I just don't get the rationale. Modern - sure, there are already a bunch of 9.9s and 10's so now there will be more. OK. Copper - maybe, there are enough pristine copper books out there that maybe there will be a large enough influx of 9.9 and 10s to satisfy demand at the uber high end. But Bronze? Really? You think there are enough pristine copies out there that all of a sudden there will be 40, 50 or more copies in 9.9 and 10? I don't buy it. Take ASM 121 as an example. Heavily submitted, expensive at 9.8. There are 86 copies in 9.8 and none higher. You think all of a sudden, what, 40 will show up 9.9/10? If even 5 show up in 9.9/10, it will have no effect on the 9.8 market. And I'm highly skeptical that 5 will show up in those grades in the next 3-4 years. You would need similar numbers to what is currently top census (86) to have much of an effect on what a 9.8 goes for and there is no way that many are showing up anytime soon. 

Everyone's risk tolerance is different. If I owned top census copies from bronze or later I would expect them to eventually be supplanted by 9.9/10 copies because the rules of the game have obviously shifted...and I'm not convinced that five 9.9/10 copies wouldn't impact 9.8 prices in your example. This on top of the post-Covid bloodbath. Not a great time to own this stuff. 

Edited May 29 by october

[LordRahl]

On 5/29/2024 at 1:37 PM, october said:

Everyone's risk tolerance is different. If I owned top census copies from bronze or later I would expect them to eventually be supplanted by 9.9/10 copies because the rules of the game have obviously shifted...and I'm not convinced that five 9.9/10 copies wouldn't impact 9.8 prices in your example. This on top of the post-Covid bloodbath. Not a great time to own this stuff. 

It might just be a difference of opinion on this, which is fine. But consider this. 5 copies in 9.9/10 would take 5 buyers out of the 9.8 pool of buyers and increase the available supply by 5 copies. In 2016/2017/2018, there were between 43 and 54 copies in 9.8 and it was a cheaper book than it is now. So the available supply has increased by 40ish and the price has gone up in the last 6-7 years. That data doesn't suggest that having 5 more copies in the available supply is going to negatively impact prices. Also, this is a book that the average Joe can afford. 9.9/10s will be upwards of $50K, which is no longer an average Joe price range. So the argument that everyone who wants a high grade copy is now all of a sudden going to chase the few 9.9's and 10's doesn't really hold water as the majority of people that can currently afford a 9.8 will not be able to afford a 9.9/10. 

[Microchip]

On 5/30/2024 at 4:48 AM, october said:

If I was a 9.8 bronze/copper/modern key collector I would be selling everything. Like RIGHT NOW.

What do you want sell up first   

I'm your huckleberry.

[october]

On 5/29/2024 at 4:11 PM, Microchip said:

What do you want sell up first   

I'm your huckleberry.

You are welcome to zero out of my zero 9.8 slabs!

Edit. I lied. I have exactly one 9.8 slab, but I doubt you would like the price. 

Edited May 29 by october

[october]

On 5/29/2024 at 4:09 PM, LordRahl said:

So the argument that everyone who wants a high grade copy is now all of a sudden going to chase the few 9.9's and 10's doesn't really hold water as the majority of people that can currently afford a 9.8 will not be able to afford a 9.9/10. 

That's true, until 9.9 becomes the new 9.8. Obviously that won't impact tough to find high grade/low census comics, but books with robust 9.8 populations? Part of this is likely a concerted push to get people to, eventually, resub 9.8s. 

[LordRahl]

On 5/29/2024 at 2:51 PM, october said:

You are welcome to zero out of my zero 9.8 slabs!

Edit. I lied. I have exactly one 9.8 slab, but I doubt you would like the price. 

I'll give you tree-fiddy for it! Given the GCC has come, I'm doing YOU a favor and taking it off your hands

But seriously... newsstand double cover Sweet book!

[LordRahl]

On 5/29/2024 at 2:53 PM, october said:

That's true, until 9.9 becomes the new 9.8. Obviously that won't impact tough to find high grade/low census comics, but books with robust 9.8 populations? Part of this is likely a concerted push to get people to, eventually, resub 9.8s. 

For books like Wolvie 1 and Secret Wars 8, I agree, this may come to pass. I have submitted dozens of each of those and I swear some of them should have been 9.9/10s but since CGC was artificially holding back those grades, they only got 9.8s. And I fully believe as I've stated here on the boards in the past, that CGC was in fact artificially holding those back and not giving them to books that were deserving. 

[trademarkcomics]

I'm going to play devil's advocate for a moment, here. Is this a change in grading standards across the board? Or is it simply a change in grading standards for books of a certain age? We all know higher grade Silver Age books get a bump in grade simply for being older...could it be that bronze and copper age books are beginning to get a similar bump? I see 90's and even 2000's books browning on the edges in some collections. They are old. Could graders consciously(or sub-consciously) be giving books pre-1985 a "pass" for minor imperfections that would have been noticed before? And with the influx of so many books from this era, isn't it in CGC's best interest to give a slight bump to these books? I'm saying they may not even be aware they are giving the books a bump, but human beings often alter their beliefs if it's in their best interest to do so. 

If older books are getting a bump, newer books are not. When you look at the original run of Incredible Hulk #181, there is one solitary 9.9. But while that seems realistic, considering the printing issues with that particular book, is it really realistic to say that of the 1100+ facsimile editions that were graded 9.8, not one was better than 9.8? I sure don't see much of anything wrong with the 9.8s I've seen of the facsimile. Obviously, they have been capped out at 9.8 since they are so new. 

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

On 5/29/2024 at 3:58 PM, LordRahl said:

I have submitted dozens of each of those and I swear some of them should have been 9.9/10s but since CGC was artificially holding back those grades, they only got 9.8s. And I fully believe as I've stated here on the boards in the past, that CGC was in fact artificially holding those back and not giving them to books that were deserving. 

[RockMyAmadeus]

On 5/29/2024 at 4:57 PM, trademarkcomics said:

Obviously, they have been capped out at 9.8 since they are so new. 

[PopKulture]

On 5/30/2024 at 5:55 AM, Poutine said:

Huckle bearer

Handholds on the sides of caskets are called huckles

I think that’s been debated to death and the conclusion is that’s a made-up contention. It seems to all derive from one said contrary social media post with absolutely no mention previously. There’s someone on social media offering $1,000 to anyone who will show them any reference like a dictionary or encyclopedia, or even a book, from the old days that mentions that. And supposedly Val Kilmer and others have confirmed that it’s “huckleberry.”  

Me, I have no horse in the race.  

[Gator Guru]

On 5/29/2024 at 4:37 PM, october said:

Everyone's risk tolerance is different. If I owned top census copies from bronze or later I would expect them to eventually be supplanted by 9.9/10 copies because the rules of the game have obviously shifted...and I'm not convinced that five 9.9/10 copies wouldn't impact 9.8 prices in your example. This on top of the post-Covid bloodbath. Not a great time to own this stuff. 

This right here. The grading standards have changed so whatever books you have that are not silver or golden age then expect them to be “at risk” of now being less desirable. This of course is more likely for the popular books as the more subs the more 9.9 and 10s will pop. I will say its possible that while the standards have changed CGC was doing it wrong ll along so now they mag actually be grading better/more accurately by giving out 9.9s. Giving out 10s? No way

Personally if im one of those newstand guys then I am the most nervous. Would you rather have a 9.9 (that can be tracked on the census) or a 9.8 comic with a freakin barcode on it? Give me the 9.9. So for me on the sidelines with money this may workout. For those that blew their wad on the perceived scarce newstands (with no actual census data to prove they are scarce) then good luck and good night.

[Gator Guru]

On 5/29/2024 at 7:57 PM, trademarkcomics said:

I'm going to play devil's advocate for a moment, here. Is this a change in grading standards across the board? Or is it simply a change in grading standards for books of a certain age? We all know higher grade Silver Age books get a bump in grade simply for being older...could it be that bronze and copper age books are beginning to get a similar bump? I see 90's and even 2000's books browning on the edges in some collections. They are old. Could graders consciously(or sub-consciously) be giving books pre-1985 a "pass" for minor imperfections that would have been noticed before? And with the influx of so many books from this era, isn't it in CGC's best interest to give a slight bump to these books? I'm saying they may not even be aware they are giving the books a bump, but human beings often alter their beliefs if it's in their best interest to do so. 

If older books are getting a bump, newer books are not. When you look at the original run of Incredible Hulk #181, there is one solitary 9.9. But while that seems realistic, considering the printing issues with that particular book, is it really realistic to say that of the 1100+ facsimile editions that were graded 9.8, not one was better than 9.8? I sure don't see much of anything wrong with the 9.8s I've seen of the facsimile. Obviously, they have been capped out at 9.8 since they are so new. 

 

Yes its in their best interest to do so. No downside really to give out highwr grades for bronze, copper or modern. People only wanT to chase high grade so cgc gives them what the want. The $$$ continues to flow just like spice.

[Blastaar]

Is there a 0.5 on census yet? I’d be down to break that glass ceiling.