• When you click on links to various merchants on this site and make a purchase, this can result in this site earning a commission. Affiliate programs and affiliations include, but are not limited to, the eBay Partner Network.

Is anyone else getting books back with warped inner wells?
23 23

Started by LordRahl,

1,668 posts in this topic

  • Popular Post
bc

bc

Posted
  • Popular Post
Posted

If anyone was wondering if CGC submissions have been impacted by any of the "issues" the last few years, put together a graph from CGCDATA.COM.

The data reflects the number of books added to the CGC Census Per Month for August 2021 to August 2024. I understand that the CGC Census is uploaded every few days, so it's not exactly perfect, but it's the best data I could find.

image.thumb.png.defb92b162614be5c1395b3d664ff891.png

The Blue line is the Census additions per month. The Orange line is the 6 Month moving average.

 

WARNING: Nerd Stuff Below

Spoiler

CGCDATA.COM queries data from the CGC Census.

To query how many books per month are added to the Census (an approximate count of the number of slabs/submissions per month, I manually manipulated the URL Query.

Here's a typical URL Query:

http://cgcdata.com/cgc/search/desc/no/label/all/orderby/year/variants/yes/census/210831/censusprior/210801/

The key is the "/census" and "/censusprior" - the format is YYMMD. So the above query results in it returning the total Census additions thru August 31, 2021 starting in August 1, 2021.

The query returns the data in an HTML table like this:

Books CGC Label CGC Total Avg. Grade 10 9.9 9.8 9.6 9.4 9.2 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.0 0.5
215,952 BOOKS Universal 107,365 8.86 39
0.04% 		288
0.30% 		49,263
46.2% 		14,912
60% 		8,388
68% 		4,980
73% 		4,388
77% 		3,927
80% 		2,966
83% 		2,477
85% 		2,396
88% 		1,964
89% 		1,681
91% 		1,532
92% 		1,501
94% 		1,480
95% 		1,206
96% 		954
97% 		720
98% 		425
98% 		296
99% 		155
99% 		112
99% 		111
99% 		197
99%
86,016 BOOKS Signature 13,076 9.57 6
0.05% 		92
0.75% 		9,312
72% 		1,600
84% 		654
89% 		392
92% 		268
94% 		187
96% 		122
97% 		76
97% 		67
98% 		43
98% 		44
98% 		22
99% 		26
99% 		22
99% 		20
99% 		16
99% 		15
99% 		5
99% 		3
99% 		3
99% 		1
99% 		1
99% 		2
99%
11,727 BOOKS Restored 669 5.48 0
0.00% 		0
0.00% 		5
0.7% 		15
3.0% 		11
4.6% 		15
6.9% 		20
9.9% 		41
16.0% 		31
20.6% 		29
25.0% 		38
30.6% 		52
38.4% 		50
45.9% 		54
54% 		44
61% 		43
67% 		53
75% 		33
80% 		31
84% 		31
89% 		21
92% 		12
94% 		10
96% 		5
96% 		20
99%
19,636 BOOKS Qualified 602 8.03 0
0.00% 		1
0.17% 		139
23.3% 		78
36.2% 		58
45.8% 		42
53% 		39
59% 		34
65% 		20
68% 		22
72% 		22
76% 		9
77% 		14
79% 		16
82% 		19
85% 		20
89% 		29
93% 		24
97% 		2
98% 		2
98% 		3
99% 		2
99% 		0
99% 		1
99% 		3
100%

 The queries take several minutes to run per month (and it may timeout, so you have to run it again).

I totaled the 4 label types (Universal, Signature, Restored & Qualified) per month in Excel and graphed that data.

-bc

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Stefan_W

Stefan_W

Posted
Posted
On 9/7/2024 at 11:26 AM, bc said:

If anyone was wondering if CGC submissions have been impacted by any of the "issues" the last few years, put together a graph from CGCDATA.COM.

The data reflects the number of books added to the CGC Census Per Month for August 2021 to August 2024. I understand that the CGC Census is uploaded every few days, so it's not exactly perfect, but it's the best data I could find.

image.thumb.png.defb92b162614be5c1395b3d664ff891.png

The Blue line is the Census additions per month. The Orange line is the 6 Month moving average.

 

WARNING: Nerd Stuff Below

  Hide contents

CGCDATA.COM queries data from the CGC Census.

To query how many books per month are added to the Census (an approximate count of the number of slabs/submissions per month, I manually manipulated the URL Query.

Here's a typical URL Query:

http://cgcdata.com/cgc/search/desc/no/label/all/orderby/year/variants/yes/census/210831/censusprior/210801/

The key is the "/census" and "/censusprior" - the format is YYMMD. So the above query results in it returning the total Census additions thru August 31, 2021 starting in August 1, 2021.

The query returns the data in an HTML table like this:

Books CGC Label CGC Total Avg. Grade 10 9.9 9.8 9.6 9.4 9.2 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.0 0.5
215,952 BOOKS Universal 107,365 8.86 39
0.04% 		288
0.30% 		49,263
46.2% 		14,912
60% 		8,388
68% 		4,980
73% 		4,388
77% 		3,927
80% 		2,966
83% 		2,477
85% 		2,396
88% 		1,964
89% 		1,681
91% 		1,532
92% 		1,501
94% 		1,480
95% 		1,206
96% 		954
97% 		720
98% 		425
98% 		296
99% 		155
99% 		112
99% 		111
99% 		197
99%
86,016 BOOKS Signature 13,076 9.57 6
0.05% 		92
0.75% 		9,312
72% 		1,600
84% 		654
89% 		392
92% 		268
94% 		187
96% 		122
97% 		76
97% 		67
98% 		43
98% 		44
98% 		22
99% 		26
99% 		22
99% 		20
99% 		16
99% 		15
99% 		5
99% 		3
99% 		3
99% 		1
99% 		1
99% 		2
99%
11,727 BOOKS Restored 669 5.48 0
0.00% 		0
0.00% 		5
0.7% 		15
3.0% 		11
4.6% 		15
6.9% 		20
9.9% 		41
16.0% 		31
20.6% 		29
25.0% 		38
30.6% 		52
38.4% 		50
45.9% 		54
54% 		44
61% 		43
67% 		53
75% 		33
80% 		31
84% 		31
89% 		21
92% 		12
94% 		10
96% 		5
96% 		20
99%
19,636 BOOKS Qualified 602 8.03 0
0.00% 		1
0.17% 		139
23.3% 		78
36.2% 		58
45.8% 		42
53% 		39
59% 		34
65% 		20
68% 		22
72% 		22
76% 		9
77% 		14
79% 		16
82% 		19
85% 		20
89% 		29
93% 		24
97% 		2
98% 		2
98% 		3
99% 		2
99% 		0
99% 		1
99% 		3
100%

 The queries take several minutes to run per month (and it may timeout, so you have to run it again).

I totaled the 4 label types (Universal, Signature, Restored & Qualified) per month in Excel and graphed that data.

-bc

The tough part about interpreting this trend is it also corresponds to a drop in the comic market after the comic boom. As prices drop fewer books are worth submitting and fewer books are submitted. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bc

bc

Posted
Posted
On 9/7/2024 at 11:38 AM, Stefan_W said:

The tough part about interpreting this trend is it also corresponds to a drop in the comic market after the comic boom. As prices drop fewer books are worth submitting and fewer books are submitted. 

(thumbsu  Not trying to interpret the data, just presenting it. 

I will continue to add to the dataset, but the graph represents about 6 hours of queries between last night and this morning.

One thing that's worth noting is the recent promotion for July didn't noticeably increase submissions.

-bc

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MAY1979

MAY1979

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 9/7/2024 at 11:38 AM, Stefan_W said:

The tough part about interpreting this trend is it also corresponds to a drop in the comic market after the comic boom. As prices drop fewer books are worth submitting and fewer books are submitted. 

Submission numbers will get lower. Blips and standard deviations aside, the bottom will never be reached and ever-heading down as more and more overall hobby attrition and shinkage continues.  Then factor in the Cali folks plausibly siphoning of a noticeable chunk of business due to this continued banana bending debacle, including CGC washing their hands of it with a metaphorical flip of the bird response.

Edited by MAY1979
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Stefan_W

Stefan_W

Posted
Posted
On 9/7/2024 at 11:50 AM, bc said:

(thumbsu  Not trying to interpret the data, just presenting it. 

I will continue to add to the dataset, but the graph represents about 6 hours of queries between last night and this morning.

One thing that's worth noting is the recent promotion for July didn't noticeably increase submissions.

-bc

Arent some people still waiting for their July submissions to come back? Census additions happen a few days after grades are done.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bc

bc

Posted
Posted
On 9/7/2024 at 11:53 AM, Stefan_W said:

Arent some people still waiting for their July submissions to come back? Census additions happen a few days after grades are done.  

Guess we will find out at the end of September :)

-bc 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
lollyclown

lollyclown

Posted
Posted

Looks like Bananagate is starting to make the rounds on YouTube, insta, Reddit etc in a big way now because of the big Nothing Burger CGC tried to feed us.

And not just the random clickbait type of people, it's resellers who submit large amounts of books.

There's a company that has some pretty funny pressed banana videos.

Like I said before, this is one that is not like con, the lawsuit, the (gestures broadly) of this year. Those affected a very small portion of people.

This is affecting a lot of people and it's not going to go away. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Stuk

Stuk

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 9/7/2024 at 11:38 AM, Stefan_W said:

The tough part about interpreting this trend is it also corresponds to a drop in the comic market after the comic boom. As prices drop fewer books are worth submitting and fewer books are submitted. 

This is great info to see. Thanks so much. Can anyone take a crack at explaining why almost every month there is either a massive (like 50k) dip or rise? The drop from 2/2024 to 3/2024 makes obvious sense (reholder-gate) but what explains 8/2023 to 9/2023 and 10/2023 to 11/2023 etc.? As for as the impact of bend-gate, I think we have to wait a month.  Remember that this data doesn't track submissions, it tracks census addition, so the census data in any month is for submissions from a month or two earlier. The numbers for September to October 2024 -- showing submissions in July and August when bend-gate started to really become known-- should be interesting.

Edited by Stuk
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MAY1979

MAY1979

Posted
Posted
On 9/7/2024 at 3:35 PM, Stuk said:

This is great info to see. Thanks so much. Can anyone take a crack at explaining why almost every month there is either a massive (like 50k) dip or rise? The drop from 2/2024 to 3/2024 makes obvious sense (reholder-gate) but what explains 8/2023 to 9/2023 and 10/2023 to 11/2023 etc.? As for as the impact of bend-gate, I think we have to wait a month.  Remember that this data doesn't track submissions, it tracks census addition, so the census data in any month is for submissions from a month or two earlier. The numbers for September to October 2024 -- showing submissions in July and August when bend-gate started to really become known-- should be interesting.

Exactly. Near end of the year I think the data will paint a better picture.

Dips and swings can also be attributed to delayed updates and Holidays.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bc

bc

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 9/7/2024 at 3:35 PM, Stuk said:

This is great info to see. Thanks so much. Can anyone take a crack at explaining why almost every month there is either a massive (like 50k) dip or rise? The drop from 2/2024 to 3/2024 makes obvious sense (reholder-gate) but what explains 8/2023 to 9/2023 and 10/2023 to 11/2023 etc.? As for as the impact of bend-gate, I think we have to wait a month.  Remember that this data doesn't track submissions, it tracks census addition, so the census data in any month is for submissions from a month or two earlier. The numbers for September to October 2024 -- showing submissions in July and August when bend-gate started to really become known-- should be interesting.

The census is updated on a periodic based (every 5 business days or thereabouts). So some months get more updates than others depending on things like the number of days in the month and how the business days fall.That's why I added the 6 month moving average.

Here's an updated version from Dec 2019 - August 2024

image.thumb.png.6746cc205ba3a9cc108348faccddc648.png

-bc

Edited by bc
typo in date
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
23 23
Go to topic listing