HighStakesComics

Thank you Blaze I have made that correction in my post regarding the 25% of OPG. (thumbs u I feel this has been the problem more or less with a lot of the responses in this thread... seizing upon the minutiae of a post and glossing over the main points of a post. And I'm not a dealer, I don't look at comics that way. I understand that you are and you do, and I understand that is why a lot of DEALERS would take the cerebus. I, on the other hand (like the vast majority of buyers) am a collector, not a dealer. If I was a dealer that looked for flipping potential in a book after much effort (ie pressing), and I had time to wait for an interested buyer to eventually show up I would probably pick the cerebus 1. If I found a hulk 181 9.2 for a song, that looked pressable and I needed money quickly, I would take the 181. I might make less money in the long run, but at least I know I would have a quick turnaround on my investment. Time is money. But this isn't about what a dealer would do. Again, this thread is about the real world values of a hulk 181/cerebus 1, 9.2 versus what OPG reported in the 2014 guide, and how it skewed his BA rankings. -J. I'm not so much a dealer as an investor. I try to use arbitrage to upgrade my collection. If I need cash for stuff like taxes or medical deductibles then I will take some money off the table. I don't work shows and stuff so I have to rely on guys like Dale, Donut and TopNotch for non Internet related sales info. I've stated before this is a close call. The recent strong sales of 181 weren't accessible when the 2014 OPG was released. I don't think anyone knew the Hulk keys, #'s 1, 181, 271, would perform so well. Next year these two might flip again. I, however, do feel the upside of the Cerebus #1 and the facts associated such as no recent sales in high grade=pent up demand, 5 digit sales in 9.4, no copies in 9.6, equate to it being the more desirable book for a dealer/investor in the market right now this very second. If you have not watched the comiclink auctions before there are some great books in the one ending tonight. Sometimes some sell at blow out gpa prices, and other times you can score some deals. They usually have some real nice FF's you could add to that awfully nice sig line you've got already.

Comiclink is pretty transparent, but they are in the business of comic book sales. They will give you whatever data you need, but you have to call them up and ask them for it. They want to get you on the phone, which is smart business, so they can ask if you would like to consign anything in the next auction. As far as the Cerebus back issues, it was 25% of OPG, not .25%. If you saw two raw copies of 181 and Cerebus #1, and they both looked 9.2/9.4, and you had $2200 and had to buy one you have to choose the Cerebus. If you chose the Hulk, and the Cerebus 1 came in 9.4 after a press, you would have just left 3-5k on the table.

Divad.........the voice of reason.

An interesting auction to watch might be the IH 181 9.4 OWW CVA Exceptional copy in the summer feature Comiclink ending this week. It's at $3750 and it ends tomorrow. For obvious reasons this copy has breached the all time high in 9.4 according to gpa, whom link doesn't report too. It's a helluva copy. That said, it won't likely surpass the halfway point of the last 9.4 Cerebus #1 sale.

But the 9.4 Blue sale in 2014 shows otherwise. I'm looking at ALL sales. But like minds are free to disagree. (thumbs u -J. Jaydog, you seem like a good dude and in 9.2 you make a good argument for the 181, but when it comes to dollars and cents the edge goes to the rarer Cerebus #1. Why? Because if you can bump (potentialize) the 181 you will make an extra $600-$1000. If you can bump the Cerebus #1 you'll make an extra $6k in 9.4 and anywhere from $8k-15k if you can bump to 9.6. That's why Ive said I believe the books are comparable in 9.2, but if I had $2750 and had to pick one I believe you have to chase the upside of the Cerebus #1.

Your question is unclear. 15x more than what? A 9.6 over a 9.2? 9.4 is highest 100 Page 5. You, Sir, are trapped. You have to admit either A.) DC 100 Page 5 is expensive toilet paper or 2.) You were making an unreasonable statement. Blazincomics=Message Board Champion Your post makes no sense. Sorry. You have touted DC 100 Page 5 yet the highest graded copy has only yielded around $1900. Please do not debate poorly. Misrepresenting what people say is poor debating. Were you not defending the 100 Page 5's place on the top 10? Is that not just as rare in high grade as Cerebus 1? Has the most recent 9.4 not sold within $75 of $1900? I don't see the misrepresentation You do not understand the dynamics of very rare books. The fact that you are trying to make an analogy between Green Lantern #76 and Cerebus #1 is very solid evidence of that fact. And no, I have never "repeatedly slammed" anyone for a purchase. Well, maybe the guy who bought New Mutants #98 9.9 for $12k, but that was because he was here, shoving it in everyone's faces. If you cannot have a debate without using buzzwords and mischaracterizing the nature of other people's comments, why bother? Would it be fair for me to say that you think 100 Page #5 is really a $5 book, and should be shredded by everyone who owns one, if not burned, too...? Why, or why not...? Please see the thread on CG titled "Comic Book Investing". You do mention the insanity of the $30k price tag on what was at the time the highest graded GL 76. Yet, for some reason, that price is reasonable on the Cerebus #1? I stated earlier I think the 100 Page 5 is a $750 book raw in 9.2. If there's a misrepresentation here, it's the one stating I think it's a $5 book. And, we're done. I will not debate with people who cannot have one without making it personal. Thanks for the conversation thus far. Take care. Here's what's ironic. This is a nearly identical statement to what you've said to at least myself and Jaydog, even as recently as earlier in your post. Maybe the issue is you are a little on the sensitive side, which is alright. Ill treat you with kid gloves from here on out.

"Unless he becomes DC....." I was thinking that it was about time for Logan to go NWO, hit Professor X with a folding chair, and join the JLA in the new 52.

I may be ruining my life but I just can't help myself.

SOTI book, classic cover Lot's of PCH fans/collectors and this has always been one of the "trophies". Do you think a Cerebus 1 in 9.2 is more valuable than a 9.2 CSS 22? Probably I typically agree with your posts, but this is a reach. CSS 22 in 9.2 would probably fetch at least $8,000, and that is a conservative number. I think an 8.5 sold for $7k within the last few months. A Cerebus 9.4 or 9.6 would be more comparable. A 9.2 would get annihilated.

Your question is unclear. 15x more than what? A 9.6 over a 9.2? 9.4 is highest 100 Page 5. You, Sir, are trapped. You have to admit either A.) DC 100 Page 5 is expensive toilet paper or 2.) You were making an unreasonable statement. Blazincomics=Message Board Champion Your post makes no sense. Sorry. You have touted DC 100 Page 5 yet the highest graded copy has only yielded around $1900. It's a few spots below Cerebus #1, which you are calling a $30k book in 9.6? Weren't you also repeatedly slamming the guy who paid $30k for the highest graded GL 76 at the time, the #2 book on the OPG list? I agree that none of this makes much sense. Maybe if you dealt with books that were a little scarcer and limited yourself to <1000 words a day your posts would pack a tad more consistency and merit a little more consideration.

Your question is unclear. 15x more than what? A 9.6 over a 9.2? 9.4 is highest 100 Page 5. You, Sir, are trapped. You have to admit either A.) DC 100 Page 5 is expensive toilet paper or 2.) You were making an unreasonable statement. Blazincomics=Message Board Champion

No way! The highest graded copy of the DC #100 Page 5 only sells for $1900 and that's only a few spots down the OPG list. You think the single highest Cerebus is worth 15X more?

Big game tonight, RMA!

FWIW, my thoughts are if it was an existing copy you are correct. If it were a new copy, freshly graded and added to the census it might fall a bit short, unless it showed very well in grade. This is the key BA indie, but most of the value in high grade is tied to its scarcity.

I hope you have some good luck at the con, Sir, and you are correct. Cerebus 1 would decimate 181 in 9.4, but in 9.2 it's slightly more grey. If there is a 9.2 or 9.4 for sale right now that would be one more than I am aware of and that, my friend, is wherein lies the intrigue. Until one comes to market this thread will most likely continue to be a sounding board. If I were a Vegas handicapper Id set the over/under on a 9.2 OWW copy at $2650, about the same percentage over the 90 DMA of 181 that OPG has factored into the guide value. Ill keep my eyes open and if one pops up anywhere I will put the thread on high alert. I do think there is a chance Jaydog has the last laugh, but most likely there are enough credible sources here to conclude the Cerebus #1 will most likely prevail in 9.2. There have been some lulls but for the most part a very spirited debate on both sides.

If we are going to talk numbers, on a thread specifically about the aforementioned numbers, then the numbers we are discussing should at least not be 60% off even if they are hypothetical. FYI-Arguing 181 has a higher market cap might be the most poorly cited argument Ive read in my short history of analyzing online comic debates. Especially, when the premise is what an individual copy of either book would sell for in a specific grade. If I were you Id put that one under a rock for eternity.

I don't think so. I give them the benefit of the doubt. If they know anything about data quality and data collection.. then they surely wouldn't. It's not "lying" because it's not intended to deceive, just may not turn out to be correct once the theory is put into practice. The problem with this debate is that we can see copies of Hulk 181 9.2/9.4 sell every few weeks or so and have not seen Cerebus 1 9.2/9.4 sell often at all. Every dealer may have 100% intention of selling Cerebus 1 9.4 for $3500+, but until they actually have one to sell at that price we don't know for sure. Uh, Sir, if a 9.4 comes to market for $3500 there isn't a single poster here, jaydog probably included, that wouldn't pay full ask immediately. Easy easy double. Nothing like making 2 weeks salary for 5 minutes of work. Hit the buy button and then ship it out to CCS, then CGC for a miracle bump, then straight to the auction house. That's an 8-10k book in 9.4, sir. Probably 12-15k in 9.6.

+1 3k is a white paged, well centered 9.4. One sale a trend does not make. ...and here is recent, publicly available sales data that suggests you are mistaken: http://www.ebay.com/itm/Incredible-Hulk-181-CGC-9-4-White-Pages-1st-Wolverine-Full-also-selling-180-/271593526196?pt=US_Comic_Books&hash=item3f3c3c53b4 I understand that some of you may not be able to "accept" what this "common" book actually sells for. However the data is what it is. -J. He accepted an offer that wasn't $3,800? Unless you are the seller, you have no idea what sales price was. I've seen more than 2 9.4's sell on the boards in the last month in the $3,000.00 area. Ask RMA, he was the seller of one of them. And it was a beauty. You would be better served to show a little humility on the boards. You don't know everything. Yes you can see the accepted offer. Click "original listing" and then "print" about half way down on the next page. $3500. And since when does citing publicly available sales data and asking others to do the same indicate a lack of humility ? -J. Hey Jay...are those books in your sigline yours? Yes the books in every sig line I put together are mine. Why do you keep asking me that ? -J. Because the pictures are not all from the same source. Just wondering. @RMA, I told you already I lift the scans directly from the sale listing whenever I buy a book. If you like I can take a live shot of the group with my camera phone and post it for you. (thumbs u @Blaze, it's a romantic thought but I doubt it. Opinions are too firmly entrenched at this point, regardless of what the most recent publicly available sales data would suggest. -J. It's definitely a close call. Most of the larger dealers probably hold multiple 181's at any given time. A Cerebus 9.2 is something they may come across once or twice in a lifetime, if that. It's a book that will draw attention from other dealers due to its scarcity. It's place on the list is merited, but if another 2 or 3 high grade copies pop up on the census there's a good chance the 181 leapfrogs it next year. Sick FF 36 Btw. That book is heating up big time. Very nice.

JayDog, I have to give you credit, brother. You are like Hank Fonda in 12 Angry Men. I think in another dozen pages or so you might start to win a few folks over.

That means absolutely nothing. What is OS on AF15 in 9.2? Cap #1? Action #1? FF#12? We all know that OS on the hyper keys isn't in line with FMV on graded books. That's been the OP's point since the first post. And hulk 181 is a hyper key. Cerebus 1 is not. -J. I don't think that's been his point. His point was that he thinks that Hulk 181 should be ranked higher than Cerebus #1 (in terms of value). I don't think he ever disputed "key" status. Going back to my post, as I said, we all know that OS values aren't totally in line with what we see a majority of the time (ie, certified HG comics). And it would be silly to think they would. How many of us would line up and take out a second mortgage on our homes if we could buy graded keys at their OS price? You'd make a small fortune quickly if that were possible. But, what OS does give us is an appx value/range of particular, uncertified book. And, from that, we can rank the books. I don't have this years OS but I know that, of the books in my example, Action 1 is the most expensive. Just like in the "real-time auction/online sales" world. Cap 1 will be second, followed by AF15, then FF#12 (and then Cerebus 1, and Hulk 181). Nobody is disputing the more popular character. Nobody is disputing the book that is in higher demand. I don't think anyone would dispute which book is more liquid. The thread is about which book should be more valuable in OS. And, right now, OS has it right. You've made some good points. When in doubt go with the rarer book, however, recent Cerebus #1 sales have been uninspiring across the board. I'm not convinced a new Cerebus #1 in 9.2 brought to market would breach $2500. Maybe at this grade it would motivate a higher end collector to pay a steep premium over guide, but there is currently lackluster demand in the more common grades. What we do know is that the Hulk 181 in 9.2 sells above guide consistently. Extremely rare books do not behave the same way as extremely common books in high grade. The rarer the book, the more extreme the difference. This is a basic principle of the market for rare books. I recognize that many of you don't understand that, having spent much time in the market of common books...but that's the way it is. The "rules" go out the window. Look at Action #1. In 9.0 it's $3.2M. In 8.5...one grade difference...it's less than half that, $1.5M. In 8.0, one more grade difference, it's less than 1/3 the record,.at $1M. In 6.0, it's only $327K, 1/10th the record price...only a full grade and a half (VF/NM to Fine) lower. (thumbs u

18-2, Sir. I voted for Cerebus by the skin of its teeth halfway through the thread. Hell Im the only one here who has bid up the 7.5 on link. I wouldn't be surprised to see it tank though, since every other copy that has sold or been for sale since this thread began has underperformed. At least with Hulk 181 you know what you are getting. The Wolverine is tried and true.

That means absolutely nothing. What is OS on AF15 in 9.2? Cap #1? Action #1? FF#12? We all know that OS on the hyper keys isn't in line with FMV on graded books. That's been the OP's point since the first post. And hulk 181 is a hyper key. Cerebus 1 is not. -J. I don't think that's been his point. His point was that he thinks that Hulk 181 should be ranked higher than Cerebus #1 (in terms of value). I don't think he ever disputed "key" status. Going back to my post, as I said, we all know that OS values aren't totally in line with what we see a majority of the time (ie, certified HG comics). And it would be silly to think they would. How many of us would line up and take out a second mortgage on our homes if we could buy graded keys at their OS price? You'd make a small fortune quickly if that were possible. But, what OS does give us is an appx value/range of particular, uncertified book. And, from that, we can rank the books. I don't have this years OS but I know that, of the books in my example, Action 1 is the most expensive. Just like in the "real-time auction/online sales" world. Cap 1 will be second, followed by AF15, then FF#12 (and then Cerebus 1, and Hulk 181). Nobody is disputing the more popular character. Nobody is disputing the book that is in higher demand. I don't think anyone would dispute which book is more liquid. The thread is about which book should be more valuable in OS. And, right now, OS has it right. You've made some good points. When in doubt go with the rarer book, however, recent Cerebus #1 sales have been uninspiring across the board. I'm not convinced a new Cerebus #1 in 9.2 brought to market would breach $2500. Maybe at this grade it would motivate a higher end collector to pay a steep premium over guide, but there is currently lackluster demand in the more common grades. What we do know is that the Hulk 181 in 9.2 sells above guide consistently.

I'm with Fingh. Somewhere in Van Nuys, CA a circle jerk is taking place with more intellectual merit than the last 10+ pages of this thread.

Please open your 2014 OPG, or turn back to page 58 of this train wreck, and note that the difference in price is only $100, which is less than 5% of the overall value of each. Last year, Hulk #181 was $100 over Cerebus #1, and this year Cerebus #1 was $100 over Hulk #181. Both increased, but Cerebus #1 increased a bit more, in this particular timeframe, in this particular grade. I don't think I understand your explanation of market value above, "the price for each book sold times the number of books sold," but it seems like you agree with what Chuck Gower, RMA, and others have been saying: Yes, I don't think you understood it. Maybe I did not explain it clearly enough. This is how market value is usually calculated in financial markets. Take for example the New York stock exchange... the market value of any company there... is the value of each share times the numbers of shares. Right? Similarly, the total market value of a comic book (the total amount of money the combined comic collectors have in terms of value of the issue) is the number of books in exsistence times the price per book. If you are still with me, I am sure you can see that the value put on H181 by the entire market is many many many times the value of Cerebus, Even if we take a simplistic notion of value as the value for one book in one grade - then there are only one or two grades where Cerebus is even close. So in order for Cerebus to be more 'valuable' we would have to not look at the value in the total market, not look at the value in grade 8.0, 6.5 and so on... We can only look at one understanding of value and even within this understanding we can only look at a little fraction of the grades. Such selectivity makes the notion that Cerebus should be "more valuable than H181" hard to take seriously. Market capitalization, Alex. That is the terminology you are looking for.

Just for the record, I did some research and when the DC 100 Page #5 9.2 sold in 2006 for $1500+ at the time it was the highest graded copy. A couple 9.4's have popped up since, which make this sale less relevant. Maybe there are dealers out there moving this book in 9.2-9.4 regularly and maybe it commands a higher price than the data points that we have access too, but then again maybe it doesn't. I don't think this is a $1000 book in 9.2 (non-pedigree)and I don't think it's a top 10 book of the BA based on value. Topnotch, the only OPG advisor I'm aware of to comment here mentioned an additional four variants he felt would command a higher price. Anyone with 30 seconds to kill and a GPA account can see IM 55 and MP 7 go for $1000+ right now. Yes, I realize the OPG top 10 is trailing indicator. Maybe next years edition is ripe for a change.