Amazing Fantasy #15 Club

[Spider-Variant]

Some people speculated I was therefore a shill and/or a drag queen, which I am neither.

 

Thank goodness.

 

Nice copy Lauren. What was your previous copy?

[BaltimoreLauren]

Some people speculated I was therefore a shill and/or a drag queen, which I am neither.

 

Thank goodness.

 

Nice copy Lauren. What was your previous copy?

 

Where's Ares, I think he still speculates that I'm a man.

 

My last copy was a 3.5, so it was a very small grade increase.

[G.A.tor]

Cross posted, sorry! I upgraded my copy, here's hoping a drag queen doesn't try to "sell" it this time.

 

very attractive copy (thumbs u

[SAGAT]

A cgc 3.5 to 4.0 is an enormous price increase. 50% difference. Demand is extremely high on lower grades due to affordability. There is alot of room for more increases as we have over 500 million spiderman fans and 361 copies of af15 graded at 4.0 or better. (CGC census as of June 09). This is the hard facts.

 

 

Future Prices in 5 years:

 

Af15

CGC 2.0 $5000

CGC 3.0 $7,500

CGC 4.0 $12,000

CGC 5.0 $16,000

CGC 6.0 $28,000

CGC 7.0 $50,000

CGC 8.0 $140,000

CGC 9.0 $275,000

 

 

[cloudofwit]

A cgc 3.5 to 4.0 is an enormous price increase. 50% difference. Demand is extremely high on lower grades due to affordability. There is alot of room for more increases as we have over 500 million spiderman fans and 361 copies of af15 graded at 4.0 or better. (CGC census as of June 09). This is the hard facts.

 

 

Future Prices in 5 years:

 

Af15

CGC 2.0 $5000

CGC 3.0 $7,500

CGC 4.0 $12,000

CGC 5.0 $16,000

CGC 6.0 $28,000

CGC 7.0 $50,000

CGC 8.0 $140,000

CGC 9.0 $275,000

 

 

What's your source for "500 million Spider-Man fans"? Isn't the world population near 7 billion? So 1 of 14 folks on the planet are Spider-Man fans? This sounds greatly exaggerated--or maybe you weren't being literal. :think:

[G.A.tor]

A cgc 3.5 to 4.0 is an enormous price increase. 50% difference. Demand is extremely high on lower grades due to affordability. There is alot of room for more increases as we have over 500 million spiderman fans and 361 copies of af15 graded at 4.0 or better. (CGC census as of June 09). This is the hard facts.

 

 

Future Prices in 5 years:

 

Af15

CGC 2.0 $5000

CGC 3.0 $7,500

CGC 4.0 $12,000

CGC 5.0 $16,000

CGC 6.0 $28,000

CGC 7.0 $50,000

CGC 8.0 $140,000

CGC 9.0 $275,000

 

there are currently over 40 copies of 1.0 to 4.0 AF15's available in the market today...most of them overpriced, otherwise they would be selling, right

 

and for every low grade slabbed AF15, there are 10-20 easy that are raw (in fact, at one con last year, I counted the number of slabbed AF15s...9...3 of which were metro's, and the number of raw.... 51...that is right, in one little hall, 51 RAW af15's (all low grade or restored, I suspect)

 

while anything is possible in the future, I think supply in lower grades is more than sufficient to meet current demand, and definitely more than enough to meet short term demand (since prices have been falling in all grades, the "hard facts" are that there is more supply than demand, thus driving the prices down, as long as you adhere to basic supply side economic theory (thumbs u )

[fantastic_four]

there are currently over 40 copies of 1.0 to 4.0 AF15's available in the market today...most of them overpriced, otherwise they would be selling, right

 

and for every low grade slabbed AF15, there are 10-20 easy that are raw (in fact, at one con last year, I counted the number of slabbed AF15s...9...3 of which were metro's, and the number of raw.... 51...that is right, in one little hall, 51 RAW af15's (all low grade or restored, I suspect)

 

while anything is possible in the future, I think supply in lower grades is more than sufficient to meet current demand, and definitely more than enough to meet short term demand (since prices have been falling in all grades, the "hard facts" are that there is more supply than demand, thus driving the prices down, as long as you adhere to basic supply side economic theory (thumbs u )

 

All true. It was also true ten years ago, yet low grade prices still went up quite a bit during the last decade. What's different today than in the past that leads you to believe Sagat's price predictions won't come true?

[TSwift25]

Cross posted, sorry! I upgraded my copy, here's hoping a drag queen doesn't try to "sell" it this time.

 

 

Great looking 4.0!

[G.A.tor]

there are currently over 40 copies of 1.0 to 4.0 AF15's available in the market today...most of them overpriced, otherwise they would be selling, right

 

and for every low grade slabbed AF15, there are 10-20 easy that are raw (in fact, at one con last year, I counted the number of slabbed AF15s...9...3 of which were metro's, and the number of raw.... 51...that is right, in one little hall, 51 RAW af15's (all low grade or restored, I suspect)

 

while anything is possible in the future, I think supply in lower grades is more than sufficient to meet current demand, and definitely more than enough to meet short term demand (since prices have been falling in all grades, the "hard facts" are that there is more supply than demand, thus driving the prices down, as long as you adhere to basic supply side economic theory (thumbs u )

 

All true. It was also true ten years ago, yet low grade prices still went up quite a bit during the last decade. What's different today than in the past that leads you to believe Sagat's price predictions won't come true?

I think at some point, price increases (as a % to current price) has to slow down...

2008 was an unusual year in terms of the % of increase low grade ( and all grade) af15's show... that year is the "exception" and is not, and historically is not, the norm...

in fact, prices have falled double digits in the past year since their run up highs...so, that ground has to be made up, as well as a normal % increase each year we are "used to"

 

best analogy is the housing market... the parallels are uncanny

 

but, all the factors that lead me to my analysis are

past history

available copies (supply)

current sales prices and issues actually sold (demand)

trends (both past, current, and best extrapolated for the future based on economic issues, as well as our microcosm issues)

empiracle data (market sales, etc)

 

[G.A.tor]

I will use the 2.0 as an example...

10 years ago, 2.0's were a $1500 book

today, 10 years later, a few 2.0's have sold in the $2600-2900 or so range...

that is, on average, an 1250 increase, which is an 83% increase over 10 years...or, about 8% (I think that is pretty well established and accepted)...

 

so, even if history holds true, and we extrapolate out an 8% increase for the next 5 years

2970 in a year

3208 in 2 years

3464 in 3 years

3741 in 4 years

4040 in 5 years...

 

the other "estimates" are still 20% too high

 

take 6.0's for example...

10 years ago, you could get a nice copy for $4000

currently, $15000 is about the right price

but, remember that from 2000 to 2008, the increase was about 4K to 10k...it didn't jump that extra 50% (and actually about 80%, but has retracted some 30% in the last year) until 2008... you kind of have to "throw" that year out as an anomoly...

 

so again, lets "assume" 10% a year (historical % I don't believe is sustainable based on this past years correction)

15K

16500 in a year

18150 in 2 years

19965 in 3 years

21961 in 4 years

24000 in 5 years...

 

again, the previous numbers thrown out were just that, "thrown" out...I would love to know the reason or the math behind them

[G.A.tor]

another part of my analysis is that not "all", say 4.0's are created equal...

one 4.0 might sell for $5K because, well, it is a VG...another 4.0 might sell for $8K, because, well, it is now a vg/fn (i.e. has correctable defects that can be removed)...

 

that is what the numbers don't always tell you... so, if someone thinks "all" 4.0's should sell for $8K just because the last one did, well, it doesn't always work that way

 

take lauren's 4.0 as an example...I would be more likely to pay higher than a normal 4.0 because it presents SO much nicer... we have all seen other 4.0's that don't present half as nice...

 

hope I have given you all a little bit of my insight (thumbs u

[Spiderturtle]

another part of my analysis is that not "all", say 4.0's are created equal...

one 4.0 might sell for $5K because, well, it is a VG...another 4.0 might sell for $8K, because, well, it is now a vg/fn (i.e. has correctable defects that can be removed)...

 

that is what the numbers don't always tell you... so, if someone thinks "all" 4.0's should sell for $8K just because the last one did, well, it doesn't always work that way

 

take lauren's 4.0 as an example...I would be more likely to pay higher than a normal 4.0 because it presents SO much nicer... we have all seen other 4.0's that don't present half as nice...

 

hope I have given you all a little bit of my insight (thumbs u

 

Yes; presentation makes a huge difference; for example the 6.0 on comicconnect has some chips and writings on the front cover. A better 6.0 would have been long gone

[TSwift25]

Absolutely presentation is huge, but the one thing about AF 15 is that sellers don't choose to abide by that. Premiums are absolutely charged for white pages or for an incredibly nicely presenting book, but rarely are there reductions off the grade price point for books with chipping or writing.

 

It's going to be interesting to see if the glut of copies on the market prompts sellers to downwardly adjust prices on the softer copies in hopes of sale.

[fantastic_four]

I will use the 2.0 as an example...

10 years ago, 2.0's were a $1500 book

today, 10 years later, a few 2.0's have sold in the $2600-2900 or so range...

that is, on average, an 1250 increase, which is an 83% increase over 10 years...or, about 8% (I think that is pretty well established and accepted)...

 

so, even if history holds true, and we extrapolate out an 8% increase for the next 5 years

2970 in a year

3208 in 2 years

3464 in 3 years

3741 in 4 years

4040 in 5 years...

 

the other "estimates" are still 20% too high

 

Sound reasoning! I'm not sure he's wrong about the higher grades, but I'm hoping he is--at least until I score my own high grade copy. My best guess is like yours, that the bubbling of keys such as AF15 over the last three years will be followed by 1-3 years of low or nonexistant price increases to even the overall increase out to be closer to overall linear.

 

But then again...it IS Amazing Fantasy 15...so it's more likely to buck standard trends and rise exponentially than almost any other comic in the market. Comparable Golden Age keys such as Action 1 and Detective 27 certainly went through periods of exponential growth over the last 50 years that weren't followed by flat periods, but instead further steady growth mixed with further exponential spurts. You'd certainly think Amazing Fantasy 15 would go through less spurts than Action 1/Detective 27 due to the higher supply, and I suspect that's absolutely true...but further spurts, even over the short term, wouldn't shock me. Surprise me, but not shock me.

[G.A.tor]

I will use the 2.0 as an example...

10 years ago, 2.0's were a $1500 book

today, 10 years later, a few 2.0's have sold in the $2600-2900 or so range...

that is, on average, an 1250 increase, which is an 83% increase over 10 years...or, about 8% (I think that is pretty well established and accepted)...

 

so, even if history holds true, and we extrapolate out an 8% increase for the next 5 years

2970 in a year

3208 in 2 years

3464 in 3 years

3741 in 4 years

4040 in 5 years...

 

the other "estimates" are still 20% too high

 

Sound reasoning! I'm not sure he's wrong about the higher grades, but I'm hoping he is--at least until I score my own high grade copy. My best guess is like yours, that the bubbling of keys such as AF15 over the last three years will be followed by 1-3 years of low or nonexistant price increases to even the overall increase out to be closer to overall linear.

 

But then again...it IS Amazing Fantasy 15...so it's more likely to buck standard trends and rise exponentially than almost any other comic in the market. Comparable Golden Age keys such as Action 1 and Detective 27 certainly went through periods of exponential growth over the last 50 years that weren't followed by flat periods, but instead further steady growth mixed with further exponential spurts. You'd certainly think Amazing Fantasy 15 would go through less spurts than Action 1/Detective 27 due to the higher supply, and I suspect that's absolutely true...but further spurts, even over the short term, wouldn't shock me. Surprise me, but not shock me.

the best part about it all, is it is just our opinions... no way for me to say that you, or me, or him, or her is wrong... we all just state our opinions, support them the best we can, and then sit back and watch the fireworks (or the duds)

[G.A.tor]

Absolutely presentation is huge, but the one thing about AF 15 is that sellers don't choose to abide by that. Premiums are absolutely charged for white pages or for an incredibly nicely presenting book, but rarely are there reductions off the grade price point for books with chipping or writing.

 

It's going to be interesting to see if the glut of copies on the market prompts sellers to downwardly adjust prices on the softer copies in hopes of sale.

that is the key... does one "need" to sell, or will one just leave their higher than market prices on a book until it 1) sells, 2)market does finally catch up with their prices 3)they remove the book from market or 4) take a lower offer...

 

there have been like 10 copies in the 1.0 to 3.5 range (give or take) that have been on ebay for YEARS at rediculous prices...and they will continue to sit there until one of my 4 points above happens (thumbs u

[Spiderturtle]

A cgc 3.5 to 4.0 is an enormous price increase. 50% difference. Demand is extremely high on lower grades due to affordability. There is alot of room for more increases as we have over 500 million spiderman fans and 361 copies of af15 graded at 4.0 or better. (CGC census as of June 09). This is the hard facts.

 

 

Future Prices in 5 years:

 

Af15

CGC 2.0 $5000

CGC 3.0 $7,500

CGC 4.0 $12,000

CGC 5.0 $16,000

CGC 6.0 $28,000

CGC 7.0 $50,000

CGC 8.0 $140,000

CGC 9.0 $275,000

 

there are currently over 40 copies of 1.0 to 4.0 AF15's available in the market today...most of them overpriced, otherwise they would be selling, right

 

and for every low grade slabbed AF15, there are 10-20 easy that are raw (in fact, at one con last year, I counted the number of slabbed AF15s...9...3 of which were metro's, and the number of raw.... 51...that is right, in one little hall, 51 RAW af15's (all low grade or restored, I suspect)

 

while anything is possible in the future, I think supply in lower grades is more than sufficient to meet current demand, and definitely more than enough to meet short term demand (since prices have been falling in all grades, the "hard facts" are that there is more supply than demand, thus driving the prices down, as long as you adhere to basic supply side economic theory (thumbs u )

 

 

 

I"m gonna go with Gator on the supply/demand for AF15 and say that 6.0s and above have lots of more room to grow based on much lower supply than the lower grades

[peewee22]

Then bid "aggressively" on my 6.0 in C-Link...

 

[Spiderturtle]

Then bid "aggressively" on my 6.0 in C-Link...

 

 

 

Yes (thumbs u

 

There aren't that may 6.0s that are available for sale, yours definetely a nice looking one

 

 

http://www.comiclink.com/./auctions/item.asp?back=%2Fauctions%2Fsearch%2Easp%3Fwhere%3Dsell%26title%3Damazing%2520fantasy%252015%26ItemType%3DCB%23Item%5F824463&id=824463

[fantastic_four]

I'm considering the 7.5 in that auction, but that's a really rough top edge for a 7.5, which is why I didn't go hard for it when the exact same copy sold on Heritage just a few months ago. Surprising that the seller is flipping it this quickly...maybe he too decided he didn't like the top edge?