Amazing Fantasy #15 Club

[G.A.tor]

I'm considering the 7.5 in that auction, but that's a really rough top edge for a 7.5, which is why I didn't go hard for it when the exact same copy sold on Heritage just a few months ago. Surprising that the seller is flipping it this quickly...maybe he too decided he didn't like the top edge?

my guess is that it is a $40-45K book (just my opinion...could go higher or lower)... heritage got great money for it last August (at 52k+) but to me, that is one of the "anomoly" sales that only a small percentage of folks are willing to pay that kind of premium (maybe for the white pages?)... but again, the diff between ow/w and white are probably not disguishable by 99% of collectors, so I can't see paying that kind of premium... now, cr/ow vs ow or better, should be distinquishable (thumbs u

[etanick]

perhaps the buyer really couldn't afford it in the first place and now has to sell to pay the credit card or whatever he or she used to buy it. I don't think he or she will make money on this flip.

[fantastic_four]

heritage got great money for it last August (at 52k+) but to me, that is one of the "anomoly" sales that only a small percentage of folks are willing to pay that kind of premium (maybe for the white pages?)...

 

I thought that too at the time--but then a 7.5 copy sold for even more than that on ComicLink a few months later at $57K, and that one had worse page quality at off-white.

[G.A.tor]

heritage got great money for it last August (at 52k+) but to me, that is one of the "anomoly" sales that only a small percentage of folks are willing to pay that kind of premium (maybe for the white pages?)...

 

I thought that too at the time--but then a 7.5 copy sold for even more than that on ComicLink a few months later at $57K, and that one had worse page quality at off-white.

it has likely been pressed and is now likely an 8.0

 

that is what I am talking about when I say not all #X are created equal... a 7.5 that is "fully potentialized" will sell for what a 7.5 should... a 7.5 that could/should be a 8.0 or 8.5, etc, will sell for more, given the risk/return

[Spyderfan]

heritage got great money for it last August (at 52k+) but to me, that is one of the "anomoly" sales that only a small percentage of folks are willing to pay that kind of premium (maybe for the white pages?)...

 

I thought that too at the time--but then a 7.5 copy sold for even more than that on ComicLink a few months later at $57K, and that one had worse page quality at off-white.

it has likely been pressed and is now likely an 8.0

 

that is what I am talking about when I say not all #X are created equal... a 7.5 that is "fully potentialized" will sell for what a 7.5 should... a 7.5 that could/should be a 8.0 or 8.5, etc, will sell for more, given the risk/return

So, would buying that said 7.5 and pressing it into a 8.0 and resubmitting be acceptable? I mean, there's some in the hobby that believe pressing is "restoration" and some that believe it's "preservation". Obviously the 8.0 would command a higher premium and is really not detectable by any means if it's done professionally. Also, what's your take on the future for 5.0 books? I mean, they are solid MID grade copies (VG).

[G.A.tor]

heritage got great money for it last August (at 52k+) but to me, that is one of the "anomoly" sales that only a small percentage of folks are willing to pay that kind of premium (maybe for the white pages?)...

 

I thought that too at the time--but then a 7.5 copy sold for even more than that on ComicLink a few months later at $57K, and that one had worse page quality at off-white.

it has likely been pressed and is now likely an 8.0

 

that is what I am talking about when I say not all #X are created equal... a 7.5 that is "fully potentialized" will sell for what a 7.5 should... a 7.5 that could/should be a 8.0 or 8.5, etc, will sell for more, given the risk/return

So, would buying that said 7.5 and pressing it into a 8.0 and resubmitting be acceptable? I mean, there's some in the hobby that believe pressing is "restoration" and some that believe it's "preservation". Obviously the 8.0 would command a higher premium and is really not detectable by any means if it's done professionally. Also, what's your take on the future for 5.0 books? I mean, they are solid MID grade copies (VG).

it is generally becoming "accepted" that many books in holders today are formerly pressed books...can't really stop it, and if folks don't disclose the pressing, most of the time, it is impossible to tell

 

5.0's that are attractive will always command a premium over 5.0's that are not as attractive (thumbs u

[TSwift25]

heritage got great money for it last August (at 52k+) but to me, that is one of the "anomoly" sales that only a small percentage of folks are willing to pay that kind of premium (maybe for the white pages?)...

 

I thought that too at the time--but then a 7.5 copy sold for even more than that on ComicLink a few months later at $57K, and that one had worse page quality at off-white.

it has likely been pressed and is now likely an 8.0

 

that is what I am talking about when I say not all #X are created equal... a 7.5 that is "fully potentialized" will sell for what a 7.5 should... a 7.5 that could/should be a 8.0 or 8.5, etc, will sell for more, given the risk/return

So, would buying that said 7.5 and pressing it into a 8.0 and resubmitting be acceptable? I mean, there's some in the hobby that believe pressing is "restoration" and some that believe it's "preservation". Obviously the 8.0 would command a higher premium and is really not detectable by any means if it's done professionally. Also, what's your take on the future for 5.0 books? I mean, they are solid MID grade copies (VG).

 

5.0 is VG/FN.

 

Other than that, carry on. (thumbs u

[fantastic_four]

So, would buying that said 7.5 and pressing it into a 8.0 and resubmitting be acceptable?

 

No. If you do this, you'll go blind. It's worse than kicking a PUPPY!

[Spyderfan]

heritage got great money for it last August (at 52k+) but to me, that is one of the "anomoly" sales that only a small percentage of folks are willing to pay that kind of premium (maybe for the white pages?)...

 

I thought that too at the time--but then a 7.5 copy sold for even more than that on ComicLink a few months later at $57K, and that one had worse page quality at off-white.

it has likely been pressed and is now likely an 8.0

 

that is what I am talking about when I say not all #X are created equal... a 7.5 that is "fully potentialized" will sell for what a 7.5 should... a 7.5 that could/should be a 8.0 or 8.5, etc, will sell for more, given the risk/return

So, would buying that said 7.5 and pressing it into a 8.0 and resubmitting be acceptable? I mean, there's some in the hobby that believe pressing is "restoration" and some that believe it's "preservation". Obviously the 8.0 would command a higher premium and is really not detectable by any means if it's done professionally. Also, what's your take on the future for 5.0 books? I mean, they are solid MID grade copies (VG).

 

5.0 is VG/FN.

 

Other than that, carry on. (thumbs u

I was just actually asking G.A.tor's opinion on the future of graded 5.0 books, since he had given them for other grades. So, I'll...STAND TO!

[Spyderfan]

So, would buying that said 7.5 and pressing it into a 8.0 and resubmitting be acceptable?

 

No. If you do this, you'll go blind. It's worse than kicking a PUPPY!

I have no desire to "kick a puppy" as you say. Just throwin it out there, since I was given the proverbial "meatball" for it in an earlier post.

[TSwift25]

heritage got great money for it last August (at 52k+) but to me, that is one of the "anomoly" sales that only a small percentage of folks are willing to pay that kind of premium (maybe for the white pages?)...

 

I thought that too at the time--but then a 7.5 copy sold for even more than that on ComicLink a few months later at $57K, and that one had worse page quality at off-white.

it has likely been pressed and is now likely an 8.0

 

that is what I am talking about when I say not all #X are created equal... a 7.5 that is "fully potentialized" will sell for what a 7.5 should... a 7.5 that could/should be a 8.0 or 8.5, etc, will sell for more, given the risk/return

So, would buying that said 7.5 and pressing it into a 8.0 and resubmitting be acceptable? I mean, there's some in the hobby that believe pressing is "restoration" and some that believe it's "preservation". Obviously the 8.0 would command a higher premium and is really not detectable by any means if it's done professionally. Also, what's your take on the future for 5.0 books? I mean, they are solid MID grade copies (VG).

 

5.0 is VG/FN.

 

Other than that, carry on. (thumbs u

I was just actually asking G.A.tor's opinion on the future of graded 5.0 books, since he had given them for other grades. So, I'll...STAND TO!

 

As a collector and not a dealer, I think there are 4.0's that can look every bit as good as a 6.0 and I think there are 5.0's that can look superior to 6.0's. In that mid-grade range, it's completely about the book's presentability and nothing else when talking about "growth" (well, maybe if it has white pages). I would also say that for a book like AF 15, the "money" may bypass average 5.0's for presentable 4.0's or even 3.0's, especially when you consider the impetus for considering a 5.0 is that 6's and above are otherwise unattainable. Thus, the nicer the book, the better the chances for growing.

 

As always, just my opinion.

[Spiderturtle]

5.0s will hold up alot better than the 4.0s and below. Some 5.0s have really nice eye appeal. For eye appeal purpose, 5.0s is where the cut-off point is. 6.0s and above have much greater potential based on census data that's why I sacrificed my 8last 5.0. You will see a new 6.0 from me sometime next week

[G.A.tor]

naturally, the higher in grade you seek, the more you will pay, and the better the potential for growth can be...

why, again, simple supply and demand... assuming the census represents a decent bell curve of all available copies out there (probably decent, though certainly not accurate), then it is evident from that data that the majority of copies are " lower " grade

 

there are currently 828 graded universal copies

1.7% are 9.0 and above

2.5% are 8.5 and above

3.7% are 8.0 and above

6.8% are 7.5 and above.... that is where most "high grade" seekers will draw the line (though, I suspect 8.0 might be the floor)

 

mid grade (5.0 to 7.0) represents 22.2% of available copies

 

and 5.0 and above, represent 29% of all graded copies...

that means that 71% is 4.5 and lower, with the bulk fairly evenly distributed between 1.5 and 4.5

 

so, from that very simple analysis, the greatest potential for price growth, lies in 5.0 and above (from simple supply side economic theory, as the keyensian theory really doesn't apply in this simplified market) and obviously as you move up the ladder, there is a greater potential for return (and price increase relative to an unknown future demand)...

 

however, timing and understanding the market will play a significant role...for example, if you decided to purchase a cgc 8.0 a year ago, you might have paid $80K for one (or more)... if you tried to sell that copy in the last few months, you might have only realized $58K or so (that is the lowest an 8.0 has sold for in the past 12 months)... so, in that case, you would have lost a significant amount of money...

 

now, will 8.0's rebound, they should, but I don't see them as 6 figure books in the immediate future (5 years) because of several factors, not restricted to just economic, but also potential for increased supply (the press and resub), potential for increased supply (newly graded copies) and the potential for flat demand (folks might feel that a 10K 5.0 copy is economically more realistic)...

 

just some saturday morning thoughts, take it for what you will

[chromium]

Very impressive Gator...and I tend to agree with you on most points.

 

I know of two collectors who bought a copy about 18 months ago and both bought the book out of fear as much as out of pleasure.

Fear because of the rising prices they would be priced out of the market. One of them also bought it with the idea of making a profit down the line. Well both are pretty unhappy (one more than the other) because prices haven't continued to rise (both books are lower grade) and have even gone down.

 

I had a long conversation with one of them last year and he was really looking to get rid of the book but just couldn't live with the 20% loss he was about to take. So he waited and waited and a few months ago when the book moved up a little he sold it as fast as he could. He still took a significant loss but came to terms with it.

 

I can't believe these are isolated incidents and that more people overpaid out of fear that the prices just would keep on climbing in a straight line and I would expect a number of books coming to market if the prices rise just a little more or if these buyers run out of patience.

[G.A.tor]

Very impressive Gator...and I tend to agree with you on most points.

 

I know of two collectors who bought a copy about 18 months ago and both bought the book out of fear as much as out of pleasure.

Fear because of the rising prices they would be priced out of the market. One of them also bought it with the idea of making a profit down the line. Well both are pretty unhappy (one more than the other) because prices haven't continued to rise (both books are lower grade) and have even gone down.

 

I had a long conversation with one of them last year and he was really looking to get rid of the book but just couldn't live with the 20% loss he was about to take. So he waited and waited and a few months ago when the book moved up a little he sold it as fast as he could. He still took a significant loss but came to terms with it.

 

I can't believe these are isolated incidents and that more people overpaid out of fear that the prices just would keep on climbing in a straight line and I would expect a number of books coming to market if the prices rise just a little more or if these buyers run out of patience.

it truly was an AF15 bubble that has all but burst!

 

prices "should" remain flat or even slightly decrease in the near future (due to the still previous excessive run up), until such a time as demand catches back up with the available supply...then we "should" level out...

 

but yes, I talked to a casual friend that bought an 8.0 at $80K and sold it for $68K... he too was "caught up in the hype" and thought he could quickly flip it for $100K... but when it came time to pay his bill (he financed it with his home equity line of credit...a BIG no no, IMO), he had no choice but to take the loss...

 

now, if you are buying because you REALLY love the book and want to hold onto it for an extended period of time (say 5-10years) then you stand a very good chance of realizing a profit... but short term flips have proven very costly for the majority of folks that got "caught" in the big run up of 2008

[fantastic_four]

but yes, I talked to a casual friend that bought an 8.0 at $80K and sold it for $68K... he too was "caught up in the hype" and thought he could quickly flip it for $100K... but when it came time to pay his bill (he financed it with his home equity line of credit...a BIG no no, IMO), he had no choice but to take the loss...

 

It's fine if you truly are buying below market and have a high probability at beating the short-term interest, but to buy at or above market prices presuming further short-term increases...yea, that's a BIG no-no. There are only a handful of short-term flips like that per year, and they're pretty hard to spot unless you're playing the press-and-resubmit game.

 

The thing that should make it particularly hard for the guy to live with is that a bunch of the money being funnelled into Amazing Fantasy 15s not only DIRECTLY parallels the increasingly-large amounts of money being funnelled into houses from 2002 to 2005, but the money going into Amazing Fantasy 15s was at least partially BECAUSE of a market depressed by that exact same type of buy-high-hope-to-flip-even-higher mindset. People were looking at Amazing Fantasy 15 as a comparatively safe investment as compared to houses or stocks...but they're not safe enough to presume unending exponential growth. For not listening to the news and mulling it over to learn something from the losses all those 2005 homebuyers took, he deserved to take the loss.

[G.A.tor]

but yes, I talked to a casual friend that bought an 8.0 at $80K and sold it for $68K... he too was "caught up in the hype" and thought he could quickly flip it for $100K... but when it came time to pay his bill (he financed it with his home equity line of credit...a BIG no no, IMO), he had no choice but to take the loss...

 

It's fine if you truly are buying below market and have a high probability at beating the short-term interest, but to buy at or above market prices presuming further short-term increases...yea, that's a BIG no-no. There are only a handful of short-term flips like that per year, and they're pretty hard to spot unless you're playing the press-and-resubmit game.

 

The thing that should make it particularly hard for the guy to live with is that a bunch of the money being funnelled into Amazing Fantasy 15s not only DIRECTLY parallels the increasingly-large amounts of money being funnelled into houses from 2002 to 2005, but the money going into Amazing Fantasy 15s was at least partially BECAUSE of a market depressed by that exact same type of buy-high-hope-to-flip-even-higher mindset. People were looking at Amazing Fantasy 15 as a comparatively safe investment as compared to houses or stocks...but they're not safe enough to presume unending exponential growth. For not listening to the news and mulling it over to learn something from the losses all those 2005 homebuyers took, he deserved to take the loss.

agreed... but virtually everyone that bought in late 2008 that have tried to sell are taking a loss...it is not just a few folks, it is everyone!

 

the market has price corrected (to a certain degree) AF15's... hype and fear always play a role in comic buying, but one should formulate a strategy and stick to it as best as possible!

[fantastic_four]

agreed... but virtually everyone that bought in late 2008 that have tried to sell are taking a loss...it is not just a few folks, it is everyone!

 

Unfortunately they, too, deserve to lose some money. But I highly doubt most people who bought an Amazing Fantasy 15 from late 2007 to 2009 are looking to sell it now...the ones who hold onto theirs should do well in 5+ years.

[Dark Knight]

I would like to thank Gator for telling me to be more patient when it came to buying an AF 15. I almost bought one I believe early 2009 when prices were still quite high.

[showcase22gr1959]

but yes, I talked to a casual friend that bought an 8.0 at $80K and sold it for $68K... he too was "caught up in the hype" and thought he could quickly flip it for $100K... but when it came time to pay his bill (he financed it with his home equity line of credit...a BIG no no, IMO), he had no choice but to take the loss...

 

It's fine if you truly are buying below market and have a high probability at beating the short-term interest, but to buy at or above market prices presuming further short-term increases...yea, that's a BIG no-no. There are only a handful of short-term flips like that per year, and they're pretty hard to spot unless you're playing the press-and-resubmit game.

 

The thing that should make it particularly hard for the guy to live with is that a bunch of the money being funnelled into Amazing Fantasy 15s not only DIRECTLY parallels the increasingly-large amounts of money being funnelled into houses from 2002 to 2005, but the money going into Amazing Fantasy 15s was at least partially BECAUSE of a market depressed by that exact same type of buy-high-hope-to-flip-even-higher mindset. People were looking at Amazing Fantasy 15 as a comparatively safe investment as compared to houses or stocks...but they're not safe enough to presume unending exponential growth. For not listening to the news and mulling it over to learn something from the losses all those 2005 homebuyers took, he deserved to take the loss.

agreed... but virtually everyone that bought in late 2008 that have tried to sell are taking a loss...it is not just a few folks, it is everyone!

 

the market has price corrected (to a certain degree) AF15's... hype and fear always play a role in comic buying, but one should formulate a strategy and stick to it as best as possible!

 

The mentality is buy low and sell high. For me is to buy low and hold. I was lucky I bought my 3.5 in mid 2009 on the pull back. Well, at least I'm flat...but need to upgrade later. (thumbs u