Official Market Crash Thread: Part Two!

[Guest]

post a scan ( the traditional Rickdogg type) of the book! Lets have a look...

[comicinvestor-migration]

Just a friendly reminder that the CGC comic market is currently in a downward spiral, and a crash is imminent.

 

End of public service announcement.

[murph0]

How's the fornex market?

 

Brian

[Guest]

I know C.I. Ive told you before that Ive seen the coming of the end and it is near! I still want my Joes though. Ill just wait for the prices to crash and theyll all be MINE!

[comicinvestor-migration]

That's my feeling as well, and like I said before, I'm looking to seriously tone down my collection before the hits the fan. I've got too many books that I care little about, and I'd rather translate that money into some Byrne X-Men and DVDs than sit on them and see their value plummet through the floor.

 

Keep what you truly want and sell the rest.

[murph0]

You're not gonna hold on to that New Mutants run anymore??

 

Brian

[comicinvestor-migration]

I'll probably keep the best ones and blow off the rest. I'm serious here, and if you saw what I have sitting in boxes, you'd know the deal. For example, I sent Scottish some of my 35-cent variant DUPLICATES awhile back and still have more. It's truly getting insane.

[Guest]

Ive already done it! All I have left are my beloved Joes and Im not selling those even if they are not worth a cup of coffee!

[The_Man_Of_Steel]

Do you think that "The CRASH" will be permanent CI? If so, based on...(some other market perhaps) I say let it crash, the more the merrier, I would rejoice at the sound of speculators running away with their tail between their legs, and prices to come back to "reality" so that us collectors can get the books we want for less. I really hope the CGC market does crash. There are many CGC books I would like to purchase, but because of a HEALTY MARKET I simply 1.) cannot afford them 2.) would rather get more books for the same money.

 

An after-the-crash CGC market scenerio

 

After a period of lowball prices on CGC books, collectors have found many CGC books at ridiculously low prices to sell to future speculators, and then the collectors use the speculator money to buy more books for their collection.

 

The highs and lows of the Comic Book Market runs in cycles, to bail out completely means that you never were a collector to begin with, as for me, I'll buy the books I want for what I feel is a fair price high or low market.

[murph0]

you really have a run of New Mutants?

 

Brian

[comicinvestor-migration]

The highs and lows of the Comic Book Market runs in cycles, to bail out completely means that you never were a collector to begin with

 

That's a pretty unfair comment, as just about everyone finds their tastes changing and many often sell off large parts of their collection to fund other purchases along these new lines.

 

Me, I don't need the money and was quite happy to just sit on my books, whether these were ones I collected or just interesting comics. Now, I'm not so sure, as I see a real short-term opportunity to make some cash, compared to long-term trends that don't look quite as rosy.

 

So basically, if you want to sell any of your comics, I'm thinking now is a better time than a year from now.

[murph0]

I think you still missed the boat if you think it's continually going down..you should've sold in the Summer based on the crash theory.

 

Brian

[scottish]

as just about everyone finds their tastes changing and many often sell off large parts of their collection to fund other purchases along these new lines.

 

Bingo! This happens with me every year! I'm a fickle fool!

[comicinvestor-migration]

you really have a run of New Mutants?

 

I probably have 10+ NM sets of issues 86-100 that I've nabbed over the years. I've always liked those comics and when they're available dirt cheap, I have been known to pounce. It's the same with McFarlane ASM and Keown Hulk (for Moderns), I just can't resist buying multiples of issues I like.

 

And don't even get me going about how many Byrne X-Men I own, as this is some sort of fanatical obsession with me.

[comicinvestor-migration]

I think you still missed the boat if you think it's continually going down..you should've sold in the Summer based on the crash theory.

 

Like I said, I'm not hurting for cash, otherwise I'd be blowing comics off left and right. What I do intend on pursuing is to buy some ultra high-grade Byrne X-Men to really fill out my run, and the money could come in handy for that purpose.

 

So if I've already deemed a large portion of my comics as expendable, why wait?

[The_Man_Of_Steel]

That's a pretty unfair comment, as just about everyone finds their tastes changing and many often sell off large parts of their collection to fund other purchases along these new lines.

 

Ok let me re-phrase that just to be fair to you. The highs and lows of the Comic Book Market runs in cycles, to bail out completely means that... you have stopped collecting/purchasing comics, so by definition you are no longer a collector of comic books, and if you belive that the market is going to crash, then you want to sell your collection for as much as you can get NOW (like every seller needing to pay his/her bills). So you tell people that the market HAS crashed so that they think they are getting the best price j/k. Ok, I'll cut it out, perhaps you WERE a collector, but if you bail out completely your collecting status changes to...stockholder, seller?

 

Just to clear any confusion up here, if your tastes change, and you wish to sell all your Superhero comics to purchase Romance comics, that is a different story, the person is still a collector.

[comicinvestor-migration]

For the record, I am selling what I now see as to fund some extensive purchases of NON-. I usually just sit on the because I don't need the money, but now that my NON- purchases are looking to be quite expensive, the must go. I may not buy my NON- immediately, but I see comic prices falling steadily, so selling my now is the only logical move.

 

And what I deem as may be GOLD to someone else, and vice versa.

[comicwiz]

I've followed this thread, and perhaps I'm missing part (s) of the overall picture. The subject reads "official market crash", and pardon my lack of grasping certain concepts, or perhaps their continuity over a series of posts on this topic, but I'm intrigued by what CI has been stating here in the forum.

 

Not since the heyday of Marxism has anyone discussed the deterioration of capital markets in such a predetermined manner. What my degree in economics affords me is the rudimentary skills of examining market indicators, and with those indicators, one "might" be capable of revealing strengths and weaknesses by applying certain patterns to comparitive historical data. What history has taught is that anomalies occur more frequently then we would like, and this is perhaps one of the most significant weaknesses of applying indicators as "full-proof" way of determing market forces.

 

I'm wondering CI, what indicators have you used to arrive at your theory of an ensuing comic market crash? In case your wondering what I mean by "indicators", I noticed you remarking how your valuation of CGC 9.8's on ebay over the past month has influenced your notion that this market crash is imminent -- perhaps sooner than you may have initially anticipated. Is this 9.8 valuation one of the indicators used to determine the crash, and if so, what are the others? It may also be worth noting an example for each indicator.

 

All the best

 

[blowout]

CI has previously posted his list of stages for 'the evolution of a graded collectable' of which the speculators go forever upward until they reach the final stage which in this case is cgc 9.8, just before the crash.

he was specifically talking about the cgc graded market, rather than the comic book market as a whole.

if you search previous threads using the search string 'crash' i'm sure you will find it.about a month or so i think.

[comicwiz]

I keep finding threads where CI is congratualting himself for a job well-done but no actual schema, chart of anything that is coherent...

 

CI, if you would put together a summary, which includes indicators and examples, it would be appreciated.

 

In the mean time, we might well have some fun with it: