Restored AF 15 9.6

[Filter81]

For those of you who feel the AF15 is a really good purchase at $16,000 I'd be interested to know what you think of this auction that was listed earlier today.

 

Batman 1 on Comiclink

 

Its slight resto similar to the AF15, and beats pretty much all unrestored copies similar to the AF15. Is this one a steal too? I ask mainly because I have a Batman 1 CGC 8.5 Moderate restoration I'm going to be selling soon, and because I have been collecting restored books for a while now. What purple label books do most people out there feel are good deals and which ones are still shyed away from?

 

 

[AtomicPaul-migration]

I might be wrong, but I'm going to be the first to go out on a limb and state that the bidding on the Bat 1 will be hard pressed to get the same $16,000 bids that the AF15 had so many of!!

 

True, it's a Batman 1 but it's 5th removed from the highest graded thusfar on the census (restored and unrestored combined), it's also 6th or 7th removed from being the most valuable Golden age book, it's issued a full year after Detective 27, and this particular copy isn't that attractive (for an 8.5).

 

I think that this is a totally different case for the Batman 1 than the AF15 and that oddly enough, that particular AF15 (9.6 PLOD) is worth far more than this particular Batman 1 (8.5 PLOD).

 

If that Batman 1 gets a bid of $24,500, then in my opinion, the AF15 was worth $40,000. Personally, I feel that the value of that AF15 is app. $35,000 (based on an unrestored 9.6 being modestly calculated at $200,000). About a 5th to 6th as a modest estimate. You have to start thinking about what the unrestored VF and up key Silver age comics are selling for now. Then you'll begin to realize that since many of the Silver age books have approached the Golden age comic prices of a few years ago, PLODs as desireable alternatives, are going to become more and more in demand.

 

 

[Mephisto]

But Im not one of the posters here who think it was such a steal. It was still a retored book. And as much as it makes sense that collectors' opinions on PLOD books will change appreciably in the positive direction in the future, its not a given! Its still a greater risk than buying a HG blue-label book.

 

 

I know really. I mean come on guys what's going to happen to PLOD's when the crash hits later this year.

[lou_fine]

But Im not one of the posters here who think it was such a steal. It was still a retored book. And as much as it makes sense that collectors' opinions on PLOD books will change appreciably in the positive direction in the future, its not a given! Its still a greater risk than buying a HG blue-label book.

 

So try to look on the bright side that you may have been spared a bad buy..

 

 

Aman;

 

Have to disagree with you with repect to your opinion on PLODs, especially ones with only SLIGHT PROFESSIONAL restoration, as per my following comment from the Action #1 $110K thread:

 

 

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I always believe that you should be buying when the market is at a low. And I don't believe the restored market can be any lower than where it is right now.

 

If I had a lot of money to put into the market right now, I would have been loading up on all of the key Golden-Age PLODS with slight resto during the past year, especially if they are pedigrees. There's a potential for a big profit here once the market starts paying more attention to the DEGREE of restoration and the fear of the PLOD dies down. Much better opportunity here than paying 20X or 30X OS guide for so-call key SA and BA books in high CGC grade, especially when more of them seem to pop up in every census update.

 

Unfortunately, I don't have the kind of money which it would take to afford key GA PLOD's even in this severely depressed market. In my opinion, market valuations and market sentiments cannot be any more negative for PLOD's than they are right now, and has nowhere to go but up from this point.

 

Maybe we should ask Gene for his professional opinion from a pure investment point of view.

 

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Re: PLOD sells for $110K [Re: lou_fine]

#396803 - 02/18/04 07:39 AM Edit Reply Quote

 

 

Maybe we should ask Gene for his professional opinion from a pure investment point of view.

 

I agree that sentiment towards PLODs seems to be utter fear and loathing. From an investment standpoint, I love fear and loathing. I believe that the widening gap between the valuation of PLOD and unrestored books has made PLODs attractive in the medium to long-term relative to unrestored books - I do feel that the PLOD/unrestored valuation ratio will rise from current depressed levels. However, given my forecast for a secular decline in unrestored books, I can't say whether that ratio will rise due to increasing PLOD prices...or PLOD prices just falling less than their unrestored counterparts.

 

Gene

 

 

 

[Mephisto]

 

True, it's a Batman 1 but it's 5th removed from the highest graded thusfar on the census (restored and unrestored combined), it's also 6th or 7th removed from being the most valuable Golden age book, it's issued a full year after Detective 27, and this particular copy isn't that attractive (for an 8.5).

 

 

 

 

 

I don't know what it is about Batman 1 but that yellow color seems to attract more brown and grime on the cover than any of the other yellow covers from that era. I always wanted a mid or low grade copy but even unrestored 6.0's I have seen look like they were run over by a bus. Anything unrestored 4.0 or below looks like it was dead and burried in the ground for a year, and 90% of the time has tape. It seems like an unrestored in the CGC 2.0-3.0 always has a reserve of at least 10K although often it isn't met. But you can get a much nicer restored copy for around that price. For that reason I would consider starting with a restored copy. Of course I'd have to wait till I'm done with school. I noticed an unrestored CGC 4.0 that just sold on Heritage for a good amount under book...this one doesn't have tape but it sure looks like it was buried . FC covers so,so but just look at the back. http://apps.heritagecomics.com/common/view_item.php?Sale_No=809&Lot_No=3045&src=pr&sid=C5EBD3EA7C071C6BAC3C3B7A59DE16A2 I guess it's best to look at the positive. No dumb kid cut the BC off to hang it up.

[Aman619]

thats not what Im saying....

 

[FFB]

This is why I bought MVL during the summer of 2002 after the post-Spider-Man movie crash (when it still carried the post-bankruptcy stigma). Ask me how I've done on that investment since opinions have reversed themselves about the company. Hint -- I have not yet sold a single share of it yet.

 

I think you're absolutely right about Slight (P) purple labels. For moderate or extensive resto, I think they will always sell at far lower values because otherwise there would be a flood of low grade books getting restored into pristine condition. But for Slight (P), it makes little sense for such a book to sell for FAR LESS than a similar book would sell for if it had a few grease pencil marks on it instead of color touch, or a tiny piece of schmutz on the cover instead of glue functioning as a tear seal. If you have an AF#15 in NM+ 9.6 Slight (P) with a couple hits of color touch, a miniscule tear seal (1/16th inch!!!), and a small 1/16th piece added, why would that book sell for less than a 9.2 copy that has a couple grease pencil marks or a date stamp plus a couple of spine stress marks? That is insanity.

 

As far as what the NM+ 9.6 Slight (P) is worth though, I think $30-40K (as someone suggested) is way too much. I think that the fair value of the book is what it would have sold for prior to the resto. If it was an 8.5, then the most recent sale price for an 8.5 (in Dec. 2003) is $20,000. (Not a huge potential payoff if you're paying $16K for a PLOD, especially when you'd have to pay Susan C. or Matt N. to remove the resto if you wanted to try for a blue label resubmit, plus the $1,000 grading fee, plus the shipping, plus the chance it could grade out at an 8.0, which sells unrestored for $11K ). If it was a 9.0, then the last reported sale was for $36,800 during the Spider-Man movie hype (summer 2002). It would probably sell for more now, maybe $50K. But I think the AF#15 NM+ 9.6 PLOD was probably not originally a 9.0 with the tear, the three color-breaking stress lines, and the small piece out of the cover. I don't think you can fairly double the value of a VF+ book by restoring it to a 9.6, even if it does make it tied for the nicest copy in existence. I think that $16K was a good price for the book, but not necessarily a steal.

 

But Im not one of the posters here who think it was such a steal. It was still a retored book. And as much as it makes sense that collectors' opinions on PLOD books will change appreciably in the positive direction in the future, its not a given! Its still a greater risk than buying a HG blue-label book.

 

So try to look on the bright side that you may have been spared a bad buy..

 

 

Aman;

 

Have to disagree with you with repect to your opinion on PLODs, especially ones with only SLIGHT PROFESSIONAL restoration, as per my following comment from the Action #1 $110K thread:

 

 

-------------------------------------

-------------------------------------------------------------

I always believe that you should be buying when the market is at a low. And I don't believe the restored market can be any lower than where it is right now.

 

If I had a lot of money to put into the market right now, I would have been loading up on all of the key Golden-Age PLODS with slight resto during the past year, especially if they are pedigrees. There's a potential for a big profit here once the market starts paying more attention to the DEGREE of restoration and the fear of the PLOD dies down. Much better opportunity here than paying 20X or 30X OS guide for so-call key SA and BA books in high CGC grade, especially when more of them seem to pop up in every census update.

 

Unfortunately, I don't have the kind of money which it would take to afford key GA PLOD's even in this severely depressed market. In my opinion, market valuations and market sentiments cannot be any more negative for PLOD's than they are right now, and has nowhere to go but up from this point.

 

Maybe we should ask Gene for his professional opinion from a pure investment point of view.

 

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Re: PLOD sells for $110K [Re: lou_fine]

#396803 - 02/18/04 07:39 AM Edit Reply Quote

 

 

Maybe we should ask Gene for his professional opinion from a pure investment point of view.

 

I agree that sentiment towards PLODs seems to be utter fear and loathing. From an investment standpoint, I love fear and loathing. I believe that the widening gap between the valuation of PLOD and unrestored books has made PLODs attractive in the medium to long-term relative to unrestored books - I do feel that the PLOD/unrestored valuation ratio will rise from current depressed levels. However, given my forecast for a secular decline in unrestored books, I can't say whether that ratio will rise due to increasing PLOD prices...or PLOD prices just falling less than their unrestored counterparts.

 

Gene

 

 

[FFB]

I'd say nice flip, since another (or perhaps the same) Slight (P) Batman #1 just sold for $13.8K this month, and a Slight (P) 9.0 sold for $15.2K in December 2003. But the selling price of the issue on Comiclink does not strike me as outrageous, though I wouldn't pay it (not being a Batman fan).

 

For those of you who feel the AF15 is a really good purchase at $16,000 I'd be interested to know what you think of this auction that was listed earlier today.

 

Batman 1 on Comiclink

 

Its slight resto similar to the AF15, and beats pretty much all unrestored copies similar to the AF15. Is this one a steal too? I ask mainly because I have a Batman 1 CGC 8.5 Moderate restoration I'm going to be selling soon, and because I have been collecting restored books for a while now. What purple label books do most people out there feel are good deals and which ones are still shyed away from?

 

[comicmankev]

I just finished reading all the posts, boy, did that take some time!

 

I saw this book the minute it came up on comiclink, I just happened to be there! I thought it was a steal. I frantically tried to find the cash for it, and done a bit of QUICK research. I found that it sold for $8k less than a year earlier. This prompted me not to buy, but was still sorely tempted.

 

I had also checked the boards and there was no mention of it.

 

I feel there was a chance this could have sold before our board member hit the trigger. But I feel even more that this is BSD syndrome, this HAS to have been sold for more than $16k.

 

I also think that the main contribution to it's 'resale' was to these forums. The forum member who put the buy order in should NEVER have mentioned it on these boards until it was received! And I urge anyone else in the future, NEVER talk about waht a deal you have and/or what you are going to do to the book which could easily make it worth double!

 

I know it was for your pleasure, but not everybody is after that, and if someone makes it known that easy money can be made, then people can turn bad! I would hazzard a guess that (I don't like to say it but) who's to say that one of our own forum members didnt phone Josh and offer more?

 

I'm not saying this DID happen, but by speaking so freely on the boards, it could be tempting to some

[awe4one]

I know it was for your pleasure, but not everybody is after that, and if someone makes it known that easy money can be made, then people can turn bad! I would hazzard a guess that (I don't like to say it but) who's to say that one of our own forum members didnt phone Josh and offer more?

 

 

I agree with you. Better to stay silent until you have the book in hand.

 

It would be nice though for Josh or somebody at Comiclink to explain the situation (and the surcharge for that matter). But I'm not holding my breath either......

 

Jim

[comicmankev]

It would be nice though for Josh or somebody at Comiclink to explain the situation

 

[Dr_Neff]

would have only cost less than $500.00 to reslab - at charge of 2.5% of FMV which would be your purchase price in this case, adding postage and insurance of course brings the $400.00 toward $500.00 figure.

 

Additionally it would not have been prudent to "unrestore" the copy. Why ship it around more?

 

Furthermore, CGC does rate the restoration level, as in Slight, Moderate, Heavy, and Amatuer/Professional status. I do like to see disclosure sheets from Susan Cicconi, Matt Nelson (the best in the business), Matt Wilson, and Chris

Frostback Friesen. with anything in addition to the notations by CGC on the holder.

 

Lastly, The AF 15 9.6 ® should be worth more like $60-$100k, just in numbers, but when pitted against investor dollar might fair poorly against even low grade Action 1 and Detective 27. OR IS IT TIME FOR A CHANGING OF THE guard??

 

 

 

[ablue]

would have only cost less than $500.00 to reslab - at charge of 2.5% of FMV which would be your purchase price in this case, adding postage and insurance of course brings the $400.00 toward $500.00 figure.

 

Additionally it would not have been prudent to "unrestore" the copy. Why ship it around more?

 

Furthermore, CGC does rate the restoration level, as in Slight, Moderate, Heavy, and Amatuer/Professional status. I do like to see disclosure sheets from Susan Cicconi, Matt Nelson (the best in the business), Matt Wilson, and Chris

Frostback Friesen. with anything in addition to the notations by CGC on the holder.

 

Lastly, The AF 15 9.6 ® should be worth more like $60-$100k, just in numbers, but when pitted against investor dollar might fair poorly against even low grade Action 1 and Detective 27. OR IS IT TIME FOR A CHANGING OF THE guard??

 

Sheeesh!!! Even At $500.00 bucks, to pay someone that much to stick a book in a slab is outrageous.

There should be a set fee, why should I pay some grader more to slab a book just because it's worth more? Does that mean a lesser quality book is treated differently? It's a rip off to have to pay anyone else but the government luxury tax.

 

 

Edited post inserted along with quote

[fantastic_four]

Lastly, The AF 15 9.6 ® should be worth more like $60-$100k, just in numbers, but when pitted against investor dollar might fair poorly against even low grade Action 1 and Detective 27. OR IS IT TIME FOR A CHANGING OF THE guard??

 

Why's that? If you're right, then sellers should all be cracking out 8.0 to 9.0 books and restoring them up to 9.4 or better.

[fantastic_four]

Lastly, The AF 15 9.6 ® should be worth more like $60-$100k, just in numbers, but when pitted against investor dollar might fair poorly against even low grade Action 1 and Detective 27. OR IS IT TIME FOR A CHANGING OF THE guard??

 

Why's that? If you're right, then sellers should all be cracking out 8.0 to 9.0 books and restoring them up to 9.4 or better. A few hours' worth of work becomes worth $30K to $85K...that's quite an hourly rate!

[FFB]

Amen, brother. The 2.5% FMV fee is ridiculous and a total conflict of interest.

 

would have only cost less than $500.00 to reslab - at charge of 2.5% of FMV which would be your purchase price in this case, adding postage and insurance of course brings the $400.00 toward $500.00 figure.

 

Additionally it would not have been prudent to "unrestore" the copy. Why ship it around more?

 

Furthermore, CGC does rate the restoration level, as in Slight, Moderate, Heavy, and Amatuer/Professional status. I do like to see disclosure sheets from Susan Cicconi, Matt Nelson (the best in the business), Matt Wilson, and Chris

Frostback Friesen. with anything in addition to the notations by CGC on the holder.

 

Lastly, The AF 15 9.6 ® should be worth more like $60-$100k, just in numbers, but when pitted against investor dollar might fair poorly against even low grade Action 1 and Detective 27. OR IS IT TIME FOR A CHANGING OF THE guard??

 

Sheeesh!!! Even At $500.00 bucks, to pay someone that much to stick a book in a slab is outrageous.

There should be a set fee, why should I pay some grader more to slab a book just because it's worth more? Does that mean a lesser quality book is treated differently? It's a rip off to have to pay anyone else but the government luxury tax.

 

 

Edited post inserted along with quote

[burntboy]

It would be nice though for Josh or somebody at Comiclink to explain the situation

 

 

DITTO - i'd like to hear an explanation of the phone call which confirmed the sale to fantasy, not just the confirmation e-mail. something just feels wrong here and the board member conspiracy theory doesn't sound too far-fetched

[garthgantu]

For those of you who feel the AF15 is a really good purchase at $16,000 I'd be interested to know what you think of this auction that was listed earlier today.

 

Batman 1 on Comiclink

 

Its slight resto similar to the AF15, and beats pretty much all unrestored copies similar to the AF15. Is this one a steal too?

 

I'd say the answer to your question is NO, because the resto on the Bats 1 cannot all be removed the way the resto on the AF 15 could be. In the very loooong run, the Bats 1 might be a pretty good investment, but in that scenario you're waiting for restoration to lose much of its stigma, which could take many years. On the AF 15, you're just waiting for Susan C or Matt N to undo the restoration...

[FFB]

Josh's explanation to me was "Sorry he told you that. He has only been working here for four months, so he doesn't know the system yet" or words to that effect.

 

It would be nice though for Josh or somebody at Comiclink to explain the situation

 

 

DITTO - i'd like to hear an explanation of the phone call which confirmed the sale to fantasy, not just the confirmation e-mail. something just feels wrong here and the board member conspiracy theory doesn't sound too far-fetched

[Timely]

BTW, I have a Captain America Comics #1 CGC 9.2 slight. Aside from the 9.6 copy that sold for $265,000.00 it's the next best copy. I may sell it if I hear the right number, but it's growing every day!

 

Timely