When will/will the WALKING DEAD bubble burst? 7 7

[HarveySwick]

But we're trying to predict 15 years from now.

 

What if the book has been successful for 15 years from now. You guys are STILL saying it's going to drop 2 years after the show?!

 

If TWD comic continues for years and years and years even if the show is over... by issue #500, you can really envision TWD #1 being sold for $1,000?

[BarryAllen]

Fair enough.

 

But do you really believe that when TWD TV Show is over, TWD #1 will drop in value significantly?

 

Yes, if nothing else all the speculators will be quick to unload their copies driving available supply way way up.

 

Without the show, 90% of the interest in owning issue 1 at +$1,500 evaporates. No show, no large scale pop culture, no big value.

 

I doubt it will ever be worthless, but I don't see the staying power like you do.

 

But doesn't most of the speculation occur BEFORE a TV show or Movie hits. When news is announced, people go crazy buying driving up the price. Then it seems right before a movie/show, the speculators list at high prices and sell. Then people hold tight. With time you start to see them dropping in price. But it seems that mostly it was somewhat B-rated characters that got a boost or books that people had moderate care about that got a huge boost. Nothing compared to the level and fan fare of TWD.

 

People liked Black Bolt and the Inhumans in the past, sure. But prices went crazy when news was announced of a movie. I'm not sure anyone cared for Ms. Marvel before the news was announced. Same with GOTG. But TWD was already a hugely popular book BEFORE the show and will almost assuredly be hugely popular when the show is over.

 

I think any sort of speculation is gone other than speculation that comes with owning any expensive comic.

 

So then where do you see the value of the book in 15 years?

 

The show won't last forever, all shows are eventually cancelled (except maybe the Simpsons). It could have another 5 good years, maybe more. But eventually it will get cancelled. What happens to the book 10 years from then?

 

Maybe it dips slightly. Maybe it doesn't. I do NOT see it being higher than $5,000 for a long, long time (if ever). But I also don't see it dropping below $1,500 on a regular basis. There could be outlier sells where someone dumps one for quick cash, but is anyone paying $2,000 for a copy now and hoping it will be "the next AF15" ? But 15 years is a significant length of time and there are additional factors to consider (economy, comic industry as a whole).

 

So, I guess a definitive guess:

 

15 years - Low: $1,500 / High: $3,500

 

:shrug: I could see a bump to $2,500 with a movie, but long-term I would put the book at best in 15 years at $500 (including inflation).

 

Let's check back then (15 years after the show is cancelled) and loser buyers the winner a 9.8 copy. Sound good?

[HarveySwick]

(thumbs u

[Hado]

[slym2none]

Fair enough.

 

But do you really believe that when TWD TV Show is over, TWD #1 will drop in value significantly?

 

Yes, if nothing else all the speculators will be quick to unload their copies driving available supply way way up.

 

Without the show, 90% of the interest in owning issue 1 at +$1,500 evaporates. No show, no large scale pop culture, no big value.

 

I doubt it will ever be worthless, but I don't see the staying power like you do.

 

But doesn't most of the speculation occur BEFORE a TV show or Movie hits. When news is announced, people go crazy buying driving up the price. Then it seems right before a movie/show, the speculators list at high prices and sell. Then people hold tight. With time you start to see them dropping in price. But it seems that mostly it was somewhat B-rated characters that got a boost or books that people had moderate care about that got a huge boost. Nothing compared to the level and fan fare of TWD.

 

People liked Black Bolt and the Inhumans in the past, sure. But prices went crazy when news was announced of a movie. I'm not sure anyone cared for Ms. Marvel before the news was announced. Same with GOTG. But TWD was already a hugely popular book BEFORE the show and will almost assuredly be hugely popular when the show is over.

 

I think any sort of speculation is gone other than speculation that comes with owning any expensive comic.

 

So then where do you see the value of the book in 15 years?

 

The show won't last forever, all shows are eventually cancelled (except maybe the Simpsons). It could have another 5 good years, maybe more. But eventually it will get cancelled. What happens to the book 10 years from then?

 

Maybe it dips slightly. Maybe it doesn't. I do NOT see it being higher than $5,000 for a long, long time (if ever). But I also don't see it dropping below $1,500 on a regular basis. There could be outlier sells where someone dumps one for quick cash, but is anyone paying $2,000 for a copy now and hoping it will be "the next AF15" ? But 15 years is a significant length of time and there are additional factors to consider (economy, comic industry as a whole).

 

So, I guess a definitive guess:

 

15 years - Low: $1,500 / High: $3,500

 

Two years after the show is over Low: $500 High: $750

 

I agree with this, as it is closer to what the book was going for before the show.

 

(thumbs u

 

 

 

-slym

[comicalgems]

Raw, no way it sells for $1,000 if no show, video game, or movie tie ins are present. Sure there's only like 6,000 copies, but there's also about a gazillion reprints with variant covers plus the TPBs, the omnis....I mean seriously, if you want the story, you can get the story. If you want the art in comic book format, you can get the art in comic book format, if you want something that has the Tony Moore cover, you can get The Walking Dead Weekly 1 even....I mean it's just not something that you can realistically say I NEED issue 1 because it's so rare. They've killed the rarity by reprinting it so much.

 

 

[jsilverjanet]

Price is determined by demand, I don't see demand dropping enough to lower the book under $1000. It may drop again but if the comic industry stays healthy who knows how many people will want a copy 10-15 years from now.

 

The fact that only 7000 have been printed makes it pretty scarce compared to other must have books

[oakman29]

Fair enough.

 

But do you really believe that when TWD TV Show is over, TWD #1 will drop in value significantly?

 

Yes, if nothing else all the speculators will be quick to unload their copies driving available supply way way up.

 

Without the show, 90% of the interest in owning issue 1 at +$1,500 evaporates. No show, no large scale pop culture, no big value.

 

I doubt it will ever be worthless, but I don't see the staying power like you do.

 

But doesn't most of the speculation occur BEFORE a TV show or Movie hits. When news is announced, people go crazy buying driving up the price. Then it seems right before a movie/show, the speculators list at high prices and sell. Then people hold tight. With time you start to see them dropping in price. But it seems that mostly it was somewhat B-rated characters that got a boost or books that people had moderate care about that got a huge boost. Nothing compared to the level and fan fare of TWD.

 

People liked Black Bolt and the Inhumans in the past, sure. But prices went crazy when news was announced of a movie. I'm not sure anyone cared for Ms. Marvel before the news was announced. Same with GOTG. But TWD was already a hugely popular book BEFORE the show and will almost assuredly be hugely popular when the show is over.

 

I think any sort of speculation is gone other than speculation that comes with owning any expensive comic.

 

So then where do you see the value of the book in 15 years?

 

The show won't last forever, all shows are eventually cancelled (except maybe the Simpsons). It could have another 5 good years, maybe more. But eventually it will get cancelled. What happens to the book 10 years from then?

 

Maybe it dips slightly. Maybe it doesn't. I do NOT see it being higher than $5,000 for a long, long time (if ever). But I also don't see it dropping below $1,500 on a regular basis. There could be outlier sells where someone dumps one for quick cash, but is anyone paying $2,000 for a copy now and hoping it will be "the next AF15" ? But 15 years is a significant length of time and there are additional factors to consider (economy, comic industry as a whole).

 

So, I guess a definitive guess:

 

15 years - Low: $1,500 / High: $3,500

 

:shrug: I could see a bump to $2,500 with a movie, but long-term I would put the book at best in 15 years at $500 (including inflation).

 

Let's check back then (15 years after the show is cancelled) and loser buyers the winner a 9.8 copy. Sound good?

 

Thread saved for 15 years of posterity. (thumbs u

[retrothecollector]

[comicalgems]

OH and to say that the show isn't impacting values to the extent that it is, is just absurd.

 

How about all those issue 53s that went up for sale after Abraham, Eugene, and Rosita made the scene last year?

 

How about all those issue 61s that went up for sale after Father Gabriel appeared on the show?

 

I think the governor issues are beyond cooled off. They're still high, but they're not as high as they were. Seems like the real outliers for staying expensive are 1-3 and 19. The same four that were hot before the show came out.

 

The next characters to generate flip value will be Aaron (until everyone figures out he's not that major of a character), Douglas, Jesus, and of course Negan, although Negan's first appearance may not work out since there's about a bazillion of those books out and about as well.

[Hado]

Price is determined by demand, I don't see demand dropping enough to lower the book under $1000. It may drop again but if the comic industry stays healthy who knows how many people will want a copy 10-15 years from now.

 

The fact that only 7000 have been printed makes it pretty scarce compared to other must have books

That's just over double TMNT #1 right?

 

7000 compared to 3000/3500 first prints?

 

(Can't really remember how many TMNT had)

[HarveySwick]

OH and to say that the show isn't impacting values to the extent that it is, is just absurd.

 

How about all those issue 53s that went up for sale after Abraham, Eugene, and Rosita made the scene last year?

 

How about all those issue 61s that went up for sale after Father Gabriel appeared on the show?

 

I think the governor issues are beyond cooled off. They're still high, but they're not as high as they were. Seems like the real outliers for staying expensive are 1-3 and 19. The same four that were hot before the show came out.

 

The next characters to generate flip value will be Aaron (until everyone figures out he's not that major of a character), Douglas, Jesus, and of course Negan, although Negan's first appearance may not work out since there's about a bazillion of those books out and about as well.

 

Yes - that is new speculation! A character is introduced from the book and people speculate on that character's first appearance. How about the show impacting the value of #1 though? Are people STILL speculating on #1?

[CAHokie]

Only 3,275 in the first print since it was self published!

[comicalgems]

OH and to say that the show isn't impacting values to the extent that it is, is just absurd.

 

How about all those issue 53s that went up for sale after Abraham, Eugene, and Rosita made the scene last year?

 

How about all those issue 61s that went up for sale after Father Gabriel appeared on the show?

 

I think the governor issues are beyond cooled off. They're still high, but they're not as high as they were. Seems like the real outliers for staying expensive are 1-3 and 19. The same four that were hot before the show came out.

 

The next characters to generate flip value will be Aaron (until everyone figures out he's not that major of a character), Douglas, Jesus, and of course Negan, although Negan's first appearance may not work out since there's about a bazillion of those books out and about as well.

 

Yes - that is new speculation! A character is introduced from the book and people speculate on that character's first appearance. How about the show impacting the value of #1 though? Are people STILL speculating on #1?

 

Yes, but not doing a very good job at it if they're buying them already graded

 

Number one is a buy raw and press/slab book if you can find it raw. If you can find numerous copies inside a LCS when before the show they didn't care to bother with it, come on...the number one speculation is the worst because it's the hardest to see.

[comicalgems]

http://boards.collectors-society.com/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=8173477&gonew=1#UNREAD

 

This guy is not quickly selling 22 TWD slabs for less than $100 each? These would be long gone a year ago.

[jsilverjanet]

The boards aren't always the best barometer for market value

[comicalgems]

The boards aren't always the best barometer for market value

 

Granted, if he split them up he'd probably sell them faster.

[jsilverjanet]

Price is determined by demand, I don't see demand dropping enough to lower the book under $1000. It may drop again but if the comic industry stays healthy who knows how many people will want a copy 10-15 years from now.

 

The fact that only 7000 have been printed makes it pretty scarce compared to other must have books

That's just over double TMNT #1 right?

 

7000 compared to 3000/3500 first prints?

 

(Can't really remember how many TMNT had)

 

It's still a lot less than other books that are near this price point

[Buzzetta]

I would strongly suggest you take a course in reading comprehension. Where did I say anything about the ratings? I was referring to the story and it appears a lot of people and critics agree with me; starting with its downfall several years ago. If you like it you are welcome to disagree. See these links to your one:

 

http://spectator.org/blog/56454/declining-walking-dead

(The Declining Walking Dead)

 

http://www.contactmusic.com/opinion/amc-the-walking-dead-review-season-4-episode-9-criticism_4062479

(Disappointment in season 4)

 

http://www.gamespot.com/forums/offtopic-discussion-314159273/walking-dead-is-highly-overrated-31611142/

(Walking Dead is highly overrated)

 

When responding try to understand that not everyone has an agenda. I had high hopes for this season, but sadly I no longer watch. I can say the same about this season of American Horror Story. Would you like to attack me on that subject as well?

 

 

 

Interesting

 

It is funny you say critics are turning on the show. I've actually been surprised by all the praise the show has received lately. Right now Metacritic has it at an 80:

 

http://www.metacritic.com/tv/the-walking-dead/season-5

 

Entertainment Weekly says best season so far:

 

http://insidetv.ew.com/2014/11/11/walking-dead-best-season-ever/

 

Vox.com (never heard of them) had this to say:

 

"I can't believe I'm writing this, but The Walking Dead is one of the best shows of 2014"

http://www.vox.com/2014/12/1/7314439/walking-dead-finale

 

This reviewer even mentions he disliked season 4 but now is enjoying season 5:

 

"In contrast to his predecessors, Scott M. Gimple, the showrunner since Season 4, is getting nothing but praise. And deservedly so. I stand by everything I wrote a few weeks back: The Walking Dead has been shockingly good so far this year."

http://grantland.com/hollywood-prospectus/walking-dead-2014-midseason-finale-recap/

 

Most of the reviews I'm reading of the season are praising the success of the show. It is curious that your review choices were more from the niche market that would probably include more comic fans than the ones I linked.

 

Personally, I feel the show has huge peaks and valleys. I hate the way they split the show off and tell other stories. I'm truly only interested in Rick and I feel the split focus just doesn't work. It was what drove me crazy about last season.

 

However, I think a lot of my criticism of the show is because of my love for the book. Talking to none comic readers, they love it! My wife loves the show. I have coworkers that love the show. Clearly from the ratings, people love the show.

 

I'm not sure I'd say it is losing steam by any stretch of the imagination.

 

And this is your opinion. So let me ask you something. How come you are entitled to your opinion, but when I present mine "I am talking out my ***?"

 

Interesting how your mind works.

 

 

[Hado]

Price is determined by demand, I don't see demand dropping enough to lower the book under $1000. It may drop again but if the comic industry stays healthy who knows how many people will want a copy 10-15 years from now.

 

The fact that only 7000 have been printed makes it pretty scarce compared to other must have books

That's just over double TMNT #1 right?

 

7000 compared to 3000/3500 first prints?

 

(Can't really remember how many TMNT had)

 

It's still a lot less than other books that are near this price point

Oh, agreed.

Just trying to think of anything even remotely compare able