When will the New Mutants 98 bubble burst? 1 1

[1950's war comics]

What is there to burst? It went from being a $450 book to an $800 book after a long awaited, much anticipated movie was announced.

 

There are certainly other books, particularly in the copper age, that are far more fraudulent and over-valued than this one to be worrying about IMO.

 

-J.

 

It's not about how much people like the character or want the book, it's about how many of the books exist, and the ratio between those who want and the copies in existence

 

("in existence" and "in the market" are not the same thing.

 

The book is not like the Detective 33 in your sig line, which has limited supply because there just aren't as many copies in the world as there are people who'd like to have it. Everybody out there with multiple copies of that book could divest of their dupes and it would still be rare.

 

But if everybody with multiples of New Mutants 98 divested of their dupes, those dupes could line the floors a million bird cages.

 

The "limited" supply of NM 98 has entirely to do with the fact that there are many many copies which are being held by people. These books were not thrown out. The vast majority were treated carefully and very many of them weren't even read before being tucked away. Not even unsold copies were destroyed.

 

There are more people banging the drum touting the value of common books because there are more people who have them to sell.

 

But all it would take to impact the value would be a few of those people to stop banging that drum, either because they're unloading (or have unloaded their copies) or because they want to push something else (like something they have even MORE copies of),

thank you Bluechip for a brilliant analysis !

the simple logic and factuality of your post is by and large ignored and ridiculed

by many on these boards sad but true..

I have said all along that golden age has most of the only true rarities (where demand outweighs supply) almost NO coppers or moderns will ever come close to the demand outstripping the supply and NM 98 is a joke , reminds me of the so called " rare " camel beanie baby

I have been looking for common sense posts and for someone's who's opinion I can respect so thank you !

Edited October 12, 2014 by 1950's war comics

[Jaydogrules]

What is there to burst? It went from being a $450 book to an $800 book after a long awaited, much anticipated movie was announced.

 

There are certainly other books, particularly in the copper age, that are far more fraudulent and over-valued than this one to be worrying about IMO.

 

-J.

 

It's not about how much people like the character or want the book, it's about how many of the books exist, and the ratio between those who want and the copies in existence

 

("in existence" and "in the market" are not the same thing.

 

The book is not like the Detective 33 in your sig line, which has limited supply because there just aren't as many copies in the world as there are people who'd like to have it. Everybody out there with multiple copies of that book could divest of their dupes and it would still be rare.

 

But if everybody with multiples of New Mutants 98 divested of their dupes, those dupes could line the floors a million bird cages.

 

The "limited" supply of NM 98 has entirely to do with the fact that there are many many copies which are being held by people. These books were not thrown out. The vast majority were treated carefully and very many of them weren't even read before being tucked away. Not even unsold copies were destroyed.

 

There are more people banging the drum touting the value of common books because there are more people who have them to sell.

 

But all it would take to impact the value would be a few of those people to stop banging that drum, either because they're unloading (or have unloaded their copies) or because they want to push something else (like something they have even MORE copies of),

thank you Bluechip for a brilliant analysis !

the simple logic and factuality of your post is by and large ignored and ridiculed

by many on these boards sad but true..

I have said all along that golden age has most of the only true rarities (where demand outweighs supply) almost NO coppers or moderns will ever come close to the demand outstripping the supply and NM 98 is a joke , reminds me of the so called " rare " camel beanie baby

I have been looking for common sense posts and for someone's who's opinion I can respect so thank you !

 

The post was well written to be sure but I don't think anyone has said NM 98 is "rare". Comparing it to a book like Tec 33 with only 40 blue labels on the census is literally going from one extreme to another. NM 98 hasn't spiked a few hundred dollars recently because it is "rare". An increase in demand spiked it, be it speculator activity, or bandwagon collectors who just like to lock in on the next "big thing". NM 98 is simply a book a lot of people want to own. And it is more people today than it was a month ago. GA books are legitimately rare and many people cannot afford them. At least NM 98 is a newer "key" that is within reach of the masses, and that is why it should and probably will hold value.

 

-J.

[BarryAllen]

What is there to burst? It went from being a $450 book to an $800 book after a long awaited, much anticipated movie was announced.

 

There are certainly other books, particularly in the copper age, that are far more fraudulent and over-valued than this one to be worrying about IMO.

 

-J.

 

It's not about how much people like the character or want the book, it's about how many of the books exist, and the ratio between those who want and the copies in existence

 

("in existence" and "in the market" are not the same thing.

 

The book is not like the Detective 33 in your sig line, which has limited supply because there just aren't as many copies in the world as there are people who'd like to have it. Everybody out there with multiple copies of that book could divest of their dupes and it would still be rare.

 

But if everybody with multiples of New Mutants 98 divested of their dupes, those dupes could line the floors a million bird cages.

 

The "limited" supply of NM 98 has entirely to do with the fact that there are many many copies which are being held by people. These books were not thrown out. The vast majority were treated carefully and very many of them weren't even read before being tucked away. Not even unsold copies were destroyed.

 

There are more people banging the drum touting the value of common books because there are more people who have them to sell.

 

But all it would take to impact the value would be a few of those people to stop banging that drum, either because they're unloading (or have unloaded their copies) or because they want to push something else (like something they have even MORE copies of),

thank you Bluechip for a brilliant analysis !

the simple logic and factuality of your post is by and large ignored and ridiculed

by many on these boards sad but true..

I have said all along that golden age has most of the only true rarities (where demand outweighs supply) almost NO coppers or moderns will ever come close to the demand outstripping the supply and NM 98 is a joke , reminds me of the so called " rare " camel beanie baby

I have been looking for common sense posts and for someone's who's opinion I can respect so thank you !

 

The post was well written to be sure but I don't think anyone has said NM 98 is "rare". Comparing it to a book like Tec 33 with only 40 blue labels on the census is literally going from one extreme to another. NM 98 hasn't spiked a few hundred dollars recently because it is "rare". An increase in demand spiked it, be it speculator activity, or bandwagon collectors who just like to lock in on the next "big thing". NM 98 is simply a book a lot of people want to own. And it is more people today than it was a month ago. GA books are legitimately rare and many people cannot afford them. At least NM 98 is a newer "key" that is within reach of the masses, and that is why it should and probably will hold value.

 

-J.

 

Supply and Demand

 

The simple truth is there are thousands of copies people are sitting on, tens of thousands. I have personally seen long-boxes full of NM-/NM copies. As in more than one long-box full.

 

At some point these copies will flood the market and the price will reset. When that happens is anyone's guess, but I imagine around a month or two before the movie release (if it ever happens) is a fairly good guess.

[Mr 9.8]

 

Supply and Demand

 

The simple truth is there are thousands of copies people are sitting on, tens of thousands. I have personally seen long-boxes full of NM-/NM copies. As in more than one long-box full.

 

At some point these copies will flood the market and the price will reset. When that happens is anyone's guess, but I imagine around a month or two before the movie release (if it ever happens) is a fairly good guess.

That's what I'm curious about. IF this movie doesn't happen (Things get announced/canceled all the time in HW) will there still be enough people paying these high numbers for this book?

[paperheart]

 

Supply and Demand

 

The simple truth is there are thousands of copies people are sitting on, tens of thousands. I have personally seen long-boxes full of NM-/NM copies. As in more than one long-box full.

 

At some point these copies will flood the market and the price will reset. When that happens is anyone's guess, but I imagine around a month or two before the movie release (if it ever happens) is a fairly good guess.

That's what I'm curious about. IF this movie doesn't happen (Things get announced/canceled all the time in HW) will there still be enough people paying these high numbers for this book?

 

NFW

[Jaydogrules]

What is there to burst? It went from being a $450 book to an $800 book after a long awaited, much anticipated movie was announced.

 

There are certainly other books, particularly in the copper age, that are far more fraudulent and over-valued than this one to be worrying about IMO.

 

-J.

 

It's not about how much people like the character or want the book, it's about how many of the books exist, and the ratio between those who want and the copies in existence

 

("in existence" and "in the market" are not the same thing.

 

The book is not like the Detective 33 in your sig line, which has limited supply because there just aren't as many copies in the world as there are people who'd like to have it. Everybody out there with multiple copies of that book could divest of their dupes and it would still be rare.

 

But if everybody with multiples of New Mutants 98 divested of their dupes, those dupes could line the floors a million bird cages.

 

The "limited" supply of NM 98 has entirely to do with the fact that there are many many copies which are being held by people. These books were not thrown out. The vast majority were treated carefully and very many of them weren't even read before being tucked away. Not even unsold copies were destroyed.

 

There are more people banging the drum touting the value of common books because there are more people who have them to sell.

 

But all it would take to impact the value would be a few of those people to stop banging that drum, either because they're unloading (or have unloaded their copies) or because they want to push something else (like something they have even MORE copies of),

thank you Bluechip for a brilliant analysis !

the simple logic and factuality of your post is by and large ignored and ridiculed

by many on these boards sad but true..

I have said all along that golden age has most of the only true rarities (where demand outweighs supply) almost NO coppers or moderns will ever come close to the demand outstripping the supply and NM 98 is a joke , reminds me of the so called " rare " camel beanie baby

I have been looking for common sense posts and for someone's who's opinion I can respect so thank you !

 

The post was well written to be sure but I don't think anyone has said NM 98 is "rare". Comparing it to a book like Tec 33 with only 40 blue labels on the census is literally going from one extreme to another. NM 98 hasn't spiked a few hundred dollars recently because it is "rare". An increase in demand spiked it, be it speculator activity, or bandwagon collectors who just like to lock in on the next "big thing". NM 98 is simply a book a lot of people want to own. And it is more people today than it was a month ago. GA books are legitimately rare and many people cannot afford them. At least NM 98 is a newer "key" that is within reach of the masses, and that is why it should and probably will hold value.

 

-J.

 

Supply and Demand

 

The simple truth is there are thousands of copies people are sitting on, tens of thousands. I have personally seen long-boxes full of NM-/NM copies. As in more than one long-box full.

 

At some point these copies will flood the market and the price will reset. When that happens is anyone's guess, but I imagine around a month or two before the movie release (if it ever happens) is a fairly good guess.

 

High grade copies have been hitting the market for years and it hasn't stopped prices from rising yet.

 

-J.

[Old Fashion PB and J]

The book has gone too high, it will correct.

[BarryAllen]

What is there to burst? It went from being a $450 book to an $800 book after a long awaited, much anticipated movie was announced.

 

There are certainly other books, particularly in the copper age, that are far more fraudulent and over-valued than this one to be worrying about IMO.

 

-J.

 

It's not about how much people like the character or want the book, it's about how many of the books exist, and the ratio between those who want and the copies in existence

 

("in existence" and "in the market" are not the same thing.

 

The book is not like the Detective 33 in your sig line, which has limited supply because there just aren't as many copies in the world as there are people who'd like to have it. Everybody out there with multiple copies of that book could divest of their dupes and it would still be rare.

 

But if everybody with multiples of New Mutants 98 divested of their dupes, those dupes could line the floors a million bird cages.

 

The "limited" supply of NM 98 has entirely to do with the fact that there are many many copies which are being held by people. These books were not thrown out. The vast majority were treated carefully and very many of them weren't even read before being tucked away. Not even unsold copies were destroyed.

 

There are more people banging the drum touting the value of common books because there are more people who have them to sell.

 

But all it would take to impact the value would be a few of those people to stop banging that drum, either because they're unloading (or have unloaded their copies) or because they want to push something else (like something they have even MORE copies of),

thank you Bluechip for a brilliant analysis !

the simple logic and factuality of your post is by and large ignored and ridiculed

by many on these boards sad but true..

I have said all along that golden age has most of the only true rarities (where demand outweighs supply) almost NO coppers or moderns will ever come close to the demand outstripping the supply and NM 98 is a joke , reminds me of the so called " rare " camel beanie baby

I have been looking for common sense posts and for someone's who's opinion I can respect so thank you !

 

The post was well written to be sure but I don't think anyone has said NM 98 is "rare". Comparing it to a book like Tec 33 with only 40 blue labels on the census is literally going from one extreme to another. NM 98 hasn't spiked a few hundred dollars recently because it is "rare". An increase in demand spiked it, be it speculator activity, or bandwagon collectors who just like to lock in on the next "big thing". NM 98 is simply a book a lot of people want to own. And it is more people today than it was a month ago. GA books are legitimately rare and many people cannot afford them. At least NM 98 is a newer "key" that is within reach of the masses, and that is why it should and probably will hold value.

 

-J.

 

Supply and Demand

 

The simple truth is there are thousands of copies people are sitting on, tens of thousands. I have personally seen long-boxes full of NM-/NM copies. As in more than one long-box full.

 

At some point these copies will flood the market and the price will reset. When that happens is anyone's guess, but I imagine around a month or two before the movie release (if it ever happens) is a fairly good guess.

 

High grade copies have been hitting the market for years and it hasn't stopped prices from rising yet.

 

-J.

 

Correct. However, it isn't unreasonable to expect the number of 9.8 grades copies TRIPLE in the next twelve months.

 

Recent price surges are from speculators looking to make a buck. It isn't the young fans who love the character. 10-15 year-old kids don't have $300 for a comic, let alone $1,000... When the time comes people will try to cash out and there will be a huge surge of copies available and pricing will adjust rapidly.

 

I appreciate your point of view, but I think this is pretty cut and dry example of a "bubble." Again, the correction won't come tomorrow, but it isn't far from now either.

[bluechip]

What is there to burst? It went from being a $450 book to an $800 book after a long awaited, much anticipated movie was announced.

 

There are certainly other books, particularly in the copper age, that are far more fraudulent and over-valued than this one to be worrying about IMO.

 

-J.

 

It's not about how much people like the character or want the book, it's about how many of the books exist, and the ratio between those who want and the copies in existence

 

("in existence" and "in the market" are not the same thing.

 

The book is not like the Detective 33 in your sig line, which has limited supply because there just aren't as many copies in the world as there are people who'd like to have it. Everybody out there with multiple copies of that book could divest of their dupes and it would still be rare.

 

But if everybody with multiples of New Mutants 98 divested of their dupes, those dupes could line the floors a million bird cages.

 

The "limited" supply of NM 98 has entirely to do with the fact that there are many many copies which are being held by people. These books were not thrown out. The vast majority were treated carefully and very many of them weren't even read before being tucked away. Not even unsold copies were destroyed.

 

There are more people banging the drum touting the value of common books because there are more people who have them to sell.

 

But all it would take to impact the value would be a few of those people to stop banging that drum, either because they're unloading (or have unloaded their copies) or because they want to push something else (like something they have even MORE copies of),

thank you Bluechip for a brilliant analysis !

the simple logic and factuality of your post is by and large ignored and ridiculed

by many on these boards sad but true..

I have said all along that golden age has most of the only true rarities (where demand outweighs supply) almost NO coppers or moderns will ever come close to the demand outstripping the supply and NM 98 is a joke , reminds me of the so called " rare " camel beanie baby

I have been looking for common sense posts and for someone's who's opinion I can respect so thank you !

 

The post was well written to be sure but I don't think anyone has said NM 98 is "rare". Comparing it to a book like Tec 33 with only 40 blue labels on the census is literally going from one extreme to another. NM 98 hasn't spiked a few hundred dollars recently because it is "rare". An increase in demand spiked it, be it speculator activity, or bandwagon collectors who just like to lock in on the next "big thing". NM 98 is simply a book a lot of people want to own. And it is more people today than it was a month ago. GA books are legitimately rare and many people cannot afford them. At least NM 98 is a newer "key" that is within reach of the masses, and that is why it should and probably will hold value.

 

-J.

 

Supply and Demand

 

The simple truth is there are thousands of copies people are sitting on, tens of thousands. I have personally seen long-boxes full of NM-/NM copies. As in more than one long-box full.

 

At some point these copies will flood the market and the price will reset. When that happens is anyone's guess, but I imagine around a month or two before the movie release (if it ever happens) is a fairly good guess.

 

High grade copies have been hitting the market for years and it hasn't stopped prices from rising yet.

 

-J.

 

 

It's not just the number of copies hitting the market but the number of copies would are out there.

 

For every copy of Detective 33 -- in ANY condition -- there are thousands or even tens of thousands of copies of New Mutants 98 in "nosebleed" grades.

 

The best way to judge if something is undervalued or overvalued is to calculate or guestimate the market cap (or the value of all existing copies/shares).

 

Should the market cap (the value of all existing copies) of NM 98 be more than the market cap of Detective 27? I wouldn't think so.

 

But if you take the highest (or the average) prices realized for each of those books in each grade, and then multiply by how many copies exist of those books in those grades, and you will get a (supposed) market cap for NM 98 of many, many times that of Detective 27.

 

Would those values hold if there was any kind of a sell-off?

 

That brings us to another method for assessing vlue. That is to guesstimate what would reasonably happen if a large number of shares/copies came onto the market at once.

 

If ten percent of all copies of Tec 27 (or 33) came onto the market all in the same month, there would be some bargains picked up but the values would hold pretty well and in very little time come back and continue to rise

 

But if ten percent of all existing copies of NM 98 were to come on the market all at once it would be an unmitigated disaster.

 

 

Edited October 13, 2014 by bluechip

[sonicyouth]

The book has gone too high, it will correct.

 

I've been hearing this for oh.. 6-8 years now..

 

 

..still waiting.. for that $100 correction back down to $50 folks.. come on!!

[Mr 9.8]

The book has gone too high, it will correct.

 

I've been hearing this for oh.. 6-8 years now..

 

 

..still waiting.. for that $100 correction back down to $50 folks.. come on!!

I've never seen a certified 9.8 that cheap.

Cheapest I've seen was $200.00. and that was only 5 years ago.

[Mr 9.8]

Either way I don't think 9.8's will ever be that cheap again, ($50 or $200) but I also don't think these prices for 9.8 98's will stay this high for too much longer.

Edited October 13, 2014 by Mr 9.8

[Rip]

I would avoid this book and sell everything I had as quickly as possible. For "hot" books this would be the last one I would buy. Not that I hate Deadpool, but just because there are so darn many of em.

 

I would much rather put $750 (a 9.8 price) into a Daredevil 1 in around 4.0 or an Action Comics 242 in around 4.5.

Edited October 13, 2014 by Rip

[MR SigS]

Again, I ask, how does a book going up in value $300-350 over a couple of weeks period portend "the end of the hobby as we know it"? The movie announcement increased the demand even further of an already very popular character. Until enough copies are flushed out to satisfy demand, prices will rise. This is basic economics, not a "bubble". At least not as it pertains to this book. And that is certainly something that should be considered but on a book by book basis. Question the sudden interest in characters like rocket raccoon and star lord. Characters that nobody gave two bleeps about until a movie came out. Now, based solely on that, $5.00 books are "selling" for $2000. That's the kind of nonsense that should be questioned. Dead pool and NM98 have been copper blue chips for years already, and have cultivated a steady rise in value and popularity. The same cannot be said for the aforementioned guardians of the galaxy brethren.

 

-J.

 

When you have something like 9,000 copies graded, half of which are in 9.8, and those 9.8s double in value to $1,000 in the span of a week, that seems like a healthy and sustainable rise to you?

 

I actually have less problem with the prices GOTG related books are getting, as they are less plentiful and prices will naturally go up in those cases due to demand. NM #98 snuck up on nobody, and there are a ton of copies to go around once they get put on the market. Same with X-Force #2, a book we couldn't move for $5 a few weeks ago and now apparently in high demand. Not sustainable.

 

Strange, since X-Force #1 has a 1 page "Cable Guide" write up and illustration on Deadpool. Seems to me this should be his 2nd appearance.

 

Strange, I never claimed it to be his second appearance.

 

I know. I meant it's strange that X-Force #2 is getting hotter. It's either because Deadpool's on the cover, or because people think it's his 2nd appearance.

[AGGIEZ]

Again, I ask, how does a book going up in value $300-350 over a couple of weeks period portend "the end of the hobby as we know it"? The movie announcement increased the demand even further of an already very popular character. Until enough copies are flushed out to satisfy demand, prices will rise. This is basic economics, not a "bubble". At least not as it pertains to this book. And that is certainly something that should be considered but on a book by book basis. Question the sudden interest in characters like rocket raccoon and star lord. Characters that nobody gave two bleeps about until a movie came out. Now, based solely on that, $5.00 books are "selling" for $2000. That's the kind of nonsense that should be questioned. Dead pool and NM98 have been copper blue chips for years already, and have cultivated a steady rise in value and popularity. The same cannot be said for the aforementioned guardians of the galaxy brethren.

 

-J.

 

When you have something like 9,000 copies graded, half of which are in 9.8, and those 9.8s double in value to $1,000 in the span of a week, that seems like a healthy and sustainable rise to you?

 

I actually have less problem with the prices GOTG related books are getting, as they are less plentiful and prices will naturally go up in those cases due to demand. NM #98 snuck up on nobody, and there are a ton of copies to go around once they get put on the market. Same with X-Force #2, a book we couldn't move for $5 a few weeks ago and now apparently in high demand. Not sustainable.

 

Strange, since X-Force #1 has a 1 page "Cable Guide" write up and illustration on Deadpool. Seems to me this should be his 2nd appearance.

 

Strange, I never claimed it to be his second appearance.

 

I know. I meant it's strange that X-Force #2 is getting hotter. It's either because Deadpool's on the cover, or because people think it's his 2nd appearance.

 

Are you claiming that a non-story, back of the book "dossier" or a non-sports card is his 2nd appearance? To me, the "Cable Guide" in #1 amounts to an advert for an up-coming book.

 

 

[MR SigS]

I wouldn't say 'claiming it is', so much as 'suggesting perhaps'. It was unique to that book only, FWIW.

TBH my comment was a tongue-in-cheek jab at the speculation that's returned to the hobby. I commented in this post simply because it was mentioned that the demand for #2 is up.

 

Someone recently pointed out the Cable Guide to me, never having read it. It was all just part of an 'all-in-good fun' discussion over #1.

 

Edited October 14, 2014 by MR-SigS

[BarryAllen]

Do you think that this bubble will now burst as Walking Dead has returned to TV and the boardie zealots only have the attention span to over-value one comic at a time...?

 

:shrug:

[Mr 9.8]

Do you think that this bubble will now burst as Walking Dead has returned to TV and the boardie zealots only have the attention span to over-value one comic at a time...?

 

:shrug:

Nope.

[BarryAllen]

Do you think that this bubble will now burst as Walking Dead has returned to TV and the boardie zealots only have the attention span to over-value one comic at a time...?

 

:shrug:

Nope.

 

I think yep. Speculators are short on memory and patience.

[AGGIEZ]

Do you think that this bubble will now burst as Walking Dead has returned to TV and the boardie zealots only have the attention span to over-value one comic at a time...?

 

:shrug:

Nope.

 

I think yep. Speculators are short on memory and patience.

 

 

There are about 3,000 'over-value' "keys" out there right now. I'd say our attention span is pretty vast...