When will the New Mutants 98 bubble burst? 1 1

[bluechip]

Deadpool blew up a few months ago? NM 98 has been a $400 book in 9.8 for almost two years now. And it was a $200-300 book before that.

 

A 9.9 copy sold for $12,000 several years ago.

 

I was seeing zillions of Deadpool costumes at shows more than 5 years ago.

 

Deadpool being hot is not new.

 

Sorry, let me clarify. Yes, I agree he's been popular for a long time...consistently popular. I was a big fan when the issue originally hit the shelves.

 

But "blew up"...$400 to $1,000, a new post about NM98 popping up every other day, comparing NM98 to IH 181, etc....all within the past few months.

 

This is not a valid comparison. Look at the census numbers for NM 98. Almost a little over HALF of all submitted are in 9.6 or better. These prices have to be unsustainable over the long term. I could be wrong, but I hope not as this does not paint a healthy picture for the vinatge comic book market as a whole.

 

There is nothing wrong with steadily increasing prices, but here is the issue: there is a direct coorelation between movie announcements and speculation. It has never been this bad before.

 

There is also a direct correlation between the number of copies that exist and the number of people who own those copies who will tell newbies it is valuable,

 

 

Edited October 17, 2014 by bluechip

[Mr 9.8]

Deadpool blew up a few months ago? NM 98 has been a $400 book in 9.8 for almost two years now. And it was a $200-300 book before that.

 

A 9.9 copy sold for $12,000 several years ago.

 

I was seeing zillions of Deadpool costumes at shows more than 5 years ago.

 

Deadpool being hot is not new.

 

Sorry, let me clarify. Yes, I agree he's been popular for a long time...consistently popular. I was a big fan when the issue originally hit the shelves.

 

But "blew up"...$400 to $1,000, a new post about NM98 popping up every other day, comparing NM98 to IH 181, etc....all within the past few months.

 

This is not a valid comparison. Look at the census numbers for NM 98. Almost a little over HALF of all submitted are in 9.6 or better. These prices have to be unsustainable over the long term. I could be wrong, but I hope not as this does not paint a healthy picture for the vinatge comic book market as a whole.

 

There is nothing wrong with steadily increasing prices, but here is the issue: there is a direct coorelation between movie announcements and speculation. It has never been this bad before.

 

There is also a direct correlation between the number of copies that exist and the number of people who own those copies who will tell newbies it is valuable,

 

Gotta unload that stuff somehow.

[mintcollector]

Deadpool blew up a few months ago? NM 98 has been a $400 book in 9.8 for almost two years now. And it was a $200-300 book before that.

 

A 9.9 copy sold for $12,000 several years ago.

 

I was seeing zillions of Deadpool costumes at shows more than 5 years ago.

 

Deadpool being hot is not new.

 

Sorry, let me clarify. Yes, I agree he's been popular for a long time...consistently popular. I was a big fan when the issue originally hit the shelves.

 

But "blew up"...$400 to $1,000, a new post about NM98 popping up every other day, comparing NM98 to IH 181, etc....all within the past few months.

 

This is not a valid comparison. Look at the census numbers for NM 98. Almost a little over HALF of all submitted are in 9.6 or better. These prices have to be unsustainable over the long term. I could be wrong, but I hope not as this does not paint a healthy picture for the vinatge comic book market as a whole.

 

There is nothing wrong with steadily increasing prices, but here is the issue: there is a direct coorelation between movie announcements and speculation. It has never been this bad before.

 

There is also a direct correlation between the number of copies that exist and the number of people who own those copies who will tell newbies it is valuable,

 

 

 

(thumbs u

 

Speculation at its finest. Then when the book falls in price and these speculators have moved on to their next loss...er, 'golden conquest' (at least in their eyes); these same individuals will be here telling these people that "you should buy books you enjoy and not for investment purposes."

 

Ironically if they did that from the start they would have an AWESOME collection and would NOT be paying four figures for a common as day 90's key.

 

[Mr 9.8]

 

(thumbs u

 

Speculation at its finest. Then when the book falls in price and these speculators have moved on to their next loss...er, 'golden conquest' (at least in their eyes); these same individuals will be here telling these people that "you should buy books you enjoy and not for investment purposes."

 

Ironically if they did that from the start they would have an AWESOME collection and would NOT be paying four figures for a common as day 90's key.

Sadly it's the nature of the beast.

[ComicConnoisseur]

I have hundreds of comics. My son has one. The only one he wanted was a New Mutants 98. Luckily I bought it for him a couple months ago. I agree with everyone who says he's hugely popular with the younger crowd.

 

There's a club owner in Toronto that I promised a NM 98 to as a gift the next time I see him. I promised to get him a copy 3 months ago.

 

 

He tells me he's wanted a copy his entire life. I think he's about 35. He no longer actively collects (he holds what he has), he certainly doesn't speculate. He just wants a copy. There's going to be a lot of people like that.

 

 

He should have bought a copy when nobody cared about the character. Or wait a few years after the hype dies down and pick up a copy. Buying a copy right now isn't the most financially sound decision to make.

People want things when they start to command a premium price.

It`s the nature of the beast.

Did anybody want Marvel Preview 4 or Sunfire and Big Hero 6 #1 a few years ago when they could have been pulled out of dollar boxes?

Soon as they started hitting a high price that`s when they became desired.

Edited October 17, 2014 by ComicConnoisseur

[mintcollector]

I have hundreds of comics. My son has one. The only one he wanted was a New Mutants 98. Luckily I bought it for him a couple months ago. I agree with everyone who says he's hugely popular with the younger crowd.

 

There's a club owner in Toronto that I promised a NM 98 to as a gift the next time I see him. I promised to get him a copy 3 months ago.

 

 

He tells me he's wanted a copy his entire life. I think he's about 35. He no longer actively collects (he holds what he has), he certainly doesn't speculate. He just wants a copy. There's going to be a lot of people like that.

 

 

He should have bought a copy when nobody cared about the character. Or wait a few years after the hype dies down and pick up a copy. Buying a copy right now isn't the most financially sound decision to make.

People want things when they start to command a premium price.

It`s the nature of the beast.

Did anybody want Marvel Preview 4 or Sunfire and Big Hero 6 #1 a few years ago when they could have been pulled out of dollar boxes?

Soon as they started hitting a high price that`s when they became desired.

 

And I don't dispute that. However, this is exactly why these same speculators will always lose. They are chasing trends and false returns, not books. Had they worked on building a true collection without the hype, they may have actually bought some incredible books at fair prices.

 

These same speculators usually don't even know how to properly analyze the market and use the census to their advantage.

[sonicyouth]

I have hundreds of comics. My son has one. The only one he wanted was a New Mutants 98. Luckily I bought it for him a couple months ago. I agree with everyone who says he's hugely popular with the younger crowd.

 

There's a club owner in Toronto that I promised a NM 98 to as a gift the next time I see him. I promised to get him a copy 3 months ago.

 

 

He tells me he's wanted a copy his entire life. I think he's about 35. He no longer actively collects (he holds what he has), he certainly doesn't speculate. He just wants a copy. There's going to be a lot of people like that.

 

 

He should have bought a copy when nobody cared about the character. Or wait a few years after the hype dies down and pick up a copy. Buying a copy right now isn't the most financially sound decision to make.

People want things when they start to command a premium price.

It`s the nature of the beast.

Did anybody want Marvel Preview 4 or Sunfire and Big Hero 6 #1 a few years ago when they could have been pulled out of dollar boxes?

Soon as they started hitting a high price that`s when they became desired.

 

And I don't dispute that. However, this is exactly why these same speculators will always lose. They are chasing trends and false returns, not books. Had they worked on building a true collection without the hype, they may have actually bought some incredible books at fair prices.

 

These same speculators usually don't even know how to properly analyze the market and use the census to their advantage.

 

u sound like a jaded vet..

 

have you stopped to think for a moment that prices on New Mutants 98 are high because most of them are going to readers and fans of deadpool ??

 

$750 shipped (about where NM98 has currently been) for a 9.8 cgc first appearance of a popular top tier Marvel character isn't really a lot of money..

especially in GBP... thats like 300-400 quid.. nothing...

 

I know Batman and X-men are huge overseas.

 

when i watch the current crop of youtube collectors and the passionate readers comic hauls, Deadpool is pretty much one of their favorite collections and characters... and most of these vids predate the current hype by about a year or 2.

 

so like

 

hulk 181

AF15

Daredevil 1

Batman Adventures 12

ASM 129

ASM 300

GSX 1

(all high census numbers)

 

 

maybe NM 98 is just a really popular book folks around the world want in high grade?

(regardless of how many are in the census)

 

A lot of folks have stock in Disney and are pushing their own agenda.. Im starting to see it now..

 

 

 

 

 

[mintcollector]

I have hundreds of comics. My son has one. The only one he wanted was a New Mutants 98. Luckily I bought it for him a couple months ago. I agree with everyone who says he's hugely popular with the younger crowd.

 

There's a club owner in Toronto that I promised a NM 98 to as a gift the next time I see him. I promised to get him a copy 3 months ago.

 

 

He tells me he's wanted a copy his entire life. I think he's about 35. He no longer actively collects (he holds what he has), he certainly doesn't speculate. He just wants a copy. There's going to be a lot of people like that.

 

 

He should have bought a copy when nobody cared about the character. Or wait a few years after the hype dies down and pick up a copy. Buying a copy right now isn't the most financially sound decision to make.

People want things when they start to command a premium price.

It`s the nature of the beast.

Did anybody want Marvel Preview 4 or Sunfire and Big Hero 6 #1 a few years ago when they could have been pulled out of dollar boxes?

Soon as they started hitting a high price that`s when they became desired.

 

And I don't dispute that. However, this is exactly why these same speculators will always lose. They are chasing trends and false returns, not books. Had they worked on building a true collection without the hype, they may have actually bought some incredible books at fair prices.

 

These same speculators usually don't even know how to properly analyze the market and use the census to their advantage.

 

u sound like a jaded vet..

 

have you stopped to think for a moment that prices on New Mutants 98 are high because most of them are going to readers and fans of deadpool ??

 

$750 shipped (about where NM98 has currently been) for a 9.8 cgc first appearance of a popular top tier Marvel character isn't really a lot of money..

especially in GBP... thats like 300-400 quid.. nothing...

 

I know Batman and X-men are huge overseas.

 

when i watch the current crop of youtube collectors and the passionate readers comic hauls, Deadpool is pretty much one of their favorite collections and characters... and most of these vids predate the current hype by about a year or 2.

 

so like

 

hulk 181

AF15

Daredevil 1

Batman Adventures 12

ASM 129

ASM 300

GSX 1

(all high census numbers)

 

 

maybe NM 98 is just a really popular book folks around the world want in high grade?

(regardless of how many are in the census)

 

A lot of folks have stock in Disney and are pushing their own agenda.. Im starting to see it now..

 

 

 

Did read what you originally wrote? There are several noted flaws in your analysis.

 

First, I have a massive collection of antiques and collectibles that spans most popular categories. As a result I own most of the books you mention in high grade (9.2-9.8); all CGC graded.

 

Second why would I be jaded? I actually recently turned down an opportunity to own a NM 98 in CGC 9.8 at a recent local convention offering the seller some advise instead; that he can get a lot more. The cost was only $500 for the book! When I posted about this on these very forums I was told I should have bought the book instead.

 

The fact remains that NM 98 just started to spike in price because of the recent movie news. This book went from $400 to more than $1,000 (in CGC 9.8) in a matter of days if not weeks. This is not sustainable and the price validity shows that the book's performance is readily based on speculation and hype.

 

It is truly amazing that you choose to look at my statements like I am a mere onlooker who has no vested interest in high grade comic books or the current speculation frenzy we are now seeing. I hold a lot of the same high grade keys you mention below. The difference is I am NOT banking on their financial return.

 

I have often cautioned people about the dangers of speculation and as you will eventually see that even with NM 98 this too will take its course.

 

Right now antique bottle collecting is extremely popular with prices bordering on insanity. In fact several months ago it was recently named the number one most popular collecting field in America. As a collector of antique bottles I recently cautioned someone about trying to invest in this market. I wasn't accused of being a holder of Alcoa stock whose sole purpose was to ensure that aluminum prices rise instead and that collectors should flock to collecting aluminum cans; thus ensuring a I get hefty dividend thanks to these new found buyers.

 

Speculation is speculation. It doesn't matter my position in the market as my opinions are the same regardless of the collectible involved.

 

 

[Mr. Hog]

Toooooo much quoting.... Agree re:IH181 and the like. People gonna buy what they gonna buy... Fact remains that after the movie prices will soften but will not 'burst' and will likely remain higher than they were before the announcement.

[ComicConnoisseur]

Toooooo much quoting.... Agree re:IH181 and the like. People gonna buy what they gonna buy... Fact remains that after the movie prices will soften but will not 'burst' and will likely remain higher than they were before the announcement.

Agreed.

That`s how it usually ends up with comic books that get discovered after sitting in long boxes ignored all of these past decades. Once a movie is announced there will be a huge bump in price, until the movie comes out where the price levels off, but it will never go back to it`s low price of being found in a dollar box.

So in conclusion

 

Comic book found in dollar box before big movie announcement = $1.00.

 

Comic book during movie hype = highest peak pricewise, much more than original $1.00.

 

Comic book after movie hype = A lower correction pricewise,but still more than that original $1.00 it was bought for before the movie hype.

 

 

 

[bluechip]

Toooooo much quoting.... Agree re:IH181 and the like. People gonna buy what they gonna buy... Fact remains that after the movie prices will soften but will not 'burst' and will likely remain higher than they were before the announcement.

Agreed.

That`s how it usually ends up with comic books that get discovered after sitting in long boxes ignored all of these past decades. Once a movie is announced there will be a huge bump in price, until the movie comes out where the price levels off, but it will never go back to it`s low price of being found in a dollar box.

So in conclusion

 

Comic book found in dollar box before big movie announcement = $1.00.

 

Comic book during movie hype = highest peak pricewise, much more than original $1.00.

 

Comic book after movie hype = A lower correction pricewise,but still more than that original $1.00 it was bought for before the movie hype.

 

 

 

That holds up when you're talking about a dollar. But not when you're talking about hundreds, thousands and even tens of thousands of dollars. And not when you're talking about books that number in the tens and even hundreds of thousands in newsstand like condition.

 

And not when you've go people insisting that those books are worth more than the likes of a Detective 33, just because the Detective 33 isn't "high grade" and only books in high grade are valuable, so people should ignore the fact that there are thousands or even tens of thousands of copies of NM 98 as good as a 9.8 or better for every copy in any condition of Detective 33.

 

Not when you consider that the owners of common books are essentially seeking to assure their buyers that the prices will hold no matter what, which must mean the market cap of all existing copies of New Mutants 98 is many times greater than the market cap of all existing copies of Action 1 and Detective 27 put together (simple math multiplying the value achieved of the "rare" top grade copies will lead to that conclusion)

 

And not when you consider that the top grade books are virtually identical in the top grades and the only thing that really differentiates them is the number put on the label, so you are relying not on the near-cetainty that a truly rare book will continue to stay rare but instead you rely on the assumption that none or just a few of the nearly infinite high grade books out there will not be given similar or better grades in the future

 

Edited October 18, 2014 by bluechip

[ComicConnoisseur]

Toooooo much quoting.... Agree re:IH181 and the like. People gonna buy what they gonna buy... Fact remains that after the movie prices will soften but will not 'burst' and will likely remain higher than they were before the announcement.

Agreed.

That`s how it usually ends up with comic books that get discovered after sitting in long boxes ignored all of these past decades. Once a movie is announced there will be a huge bump in price, until the movie comes out where the price levels off, but it will never go back to it`s low price of being found in a dollar box.

So in conclusion

 

Comic book found in dollar box before big movie announcement = $1.00.

 

Comic book during movie hype = highest peak pricewise, much more than original $1.00.

 

Comic book after movie hype = A lower correction pricewise,but still more than that original $1.00 it was bought for before the movie hype.

 

 

 

That holds up when you're talking about a dollar. But not when you're talking about hundreds, thousands and even tens of thousands of dollars. And not when you're talking about books that number in the tens and even hundreds of thousands in newsstand like condition.

 

And not when you've go people insisting that those books are worth more than the likes of a Detective 33, just because the Detective 33 isn't "high grade" and only books in high grade are valuable, so people should ignore the fact that there are thousands or even tens of thousands of copies of NM 98 as good as a 9.8 or better for every copy in any condition of Detective 33.

 

Not when you consider that the owners of common books are essentially seeking to assure their buyers that the prices will hold no matter what, which must mean the market cap of all existing copies of New Mutants 98 is many times greater than the market cap of all existing copies of Action 1 and Detective 27 put together (simple math multiplying the value achieved of the "rare" top grade copies will lead to that conclusion)

 

And not when you consider that the top grade books are virtually identical in the top grades and the only thing that really differentiates them is the number put on the label, so you are relying not on the near-cetainty that a truly rare book will continue to stay rare but instead you rely on the assumption that none or just a few of the nearly infinite high grade books out there will not be given similar or better grades in the future

I understand what your are saying about the long-term implications.

I hope others aren't thinking of holding onto movie hyped books for long-term investments.

What I think is think of movie hyped books like Quantitative easing (QE).

Make money now with them, and do not think long-term investing.

Better to take the money and run now,then leave money on the table,while pontificating if these will be good long-term investments 10 to 20 years from now. .

Edited October 18, 2014 by ComicConnoisseur

[mintcollector]

Toooooo much quoting.... Agree re:IH181 and the like. People gonna buy what they gonna buy... Fact remains that after the movie prices will soften but will not 'burst' and will likely remain higher than they were before the announcement.

 

This is not always true. Not all books continue to stay at post speculative highs after the release of a subsequent movie or television show. To make this conclusion is not only dangerous, but also false.

 

[bababooey]

Toooooo much quoting.... Agree re:IH181 and the like. People gonna buy what they gonna buy... Fact remains that after the movie prices will soften but will not 'burst' and will likely remain higher than they were before the announcement.

 

This is not always true. Not all books continue to stay at post speculative highs after the release of a subsequent movie or television show. To make this conclusion is not only dangerous, but also false.

 

 

 

[THE_BEYONDER]

Toooooo much quoting.... Agree re:IH181 and the like. People gonna buy what they gonna buy... Fact remains that after the movie prices will soften but will not 'burst' and will likely remain higher than they were before the announcement.

 

This is not always true. Not all books continue to stay at post speculative highs after the release of a subsequent movie or television show. To make this conclusion is not only dangerous, but also false.

 

 

 

[Mr. Hog]

Just to clarify, I think he's referring to a book like 'Wanted' for example. That said, were talking about a long time fan (arguably over saturated) favorite.

[JollyComics]

Deadpool blew up a few months ago? NM 98 has been a $400 book in 9.8 for almost two years now. And it was a $200-300 book before that.

 

A 9.9 copy sold for $12,000 several years ago.

 

I was seeing zillions of Deadpool costumes at shows more than 5 years ago.

 

Deadpool being hot is not new.

 

Sorry, let me clarify. Yes, I agree he's been popular for a long time...consistently popular. I was a big fan when the issue originally hit the shelves.

 

But "blew up"...$400 to $1,000, a new post about NM98 popping up every other day, comparing NM98 to IH 181, etc....all within the past few months.

 

This is not a valid comparison. Look at the census numbers for NM 98. Almost a little over HALF of all submitted are in 9.6 or better. These prices have to be unsustainable over the long term. I could be wrong, but I hope not as this does not paint a healthy picture for the vinatge comic book market as a whole.

 

There is nothing wrong with steadily increasing prices, but here is the issue: there is a direct coorelation between movie announcements and speculation. It has never been this bad before.

 

There is also a direct correlation between the number of copies that exist and the number of people who own those copies who will tell newbies it is valuable,

 

 

 

(thumbs u

 

Speculation at its finest. Then when the book falls in price and these speculators have moved on to their next loss...er, 'golden conquest' (at least in their eyes); these same individuals will be here telling these people that "you should buy books you enjoy and not for investment purposes."

 

Ironically if they did that from the start they would have an AWESOME collection and would NOT be paying four figures for a common as day 90's key.

 

The Deadpool looks ugly without the mask. I am in a great shape and don't mind to wear the mask to conceal my thin grey hair. I definitely look cool in that costume.

 

I remembered there were about five LCSs in my hometown in about five mile radius in early 1970's. There were many local drugstores too. There were too many 70's comic books. I didn't bother to buy them (actually I didn't have money by that time). Now, 70's comic books are 40 years old and the prices have gone through the ceiling.

 

I am sure that 90's comic books will be turned 40 by 2030 (oh boy I will be an old man). Always wondered what was the value for Hulk 181 in 1984 and 1994 before the millennium?

Edited October 19, 2014 by JollyComics

[AlexanderM]

I would avoid this book and sell everything I had as quickly as possible. For "hot" books this would be the last one I would buy. Not that I hate Deadpool, but just because there are so darn many of em.

 

I would much rather put $750 (a 9.8 price) into a Daredevil 1 in around 4.0 or an Action Comics 242 in around 4.5.

 

I'm not sure I would do that.

 

AC242 doesn't really have much up-side I can see... Braniac is a well-known villain and I don't think that will change much either way. Great book and has been for a while.. I don't see while demand for it will go up a lot.

 

DD1... well, there is the defenders... but Daredevil has had his Hollywood exposure and at the end of the day he doesn't really catch the imagination of movie-goers. He is a bit of a soft super-hero in that sense.. I like him, but well... he is just Daredevil.

 

Deadpool on the other hand... he may be the most popular super-hero in all of comics since Wolverine!! Nothing soft there! He was the main attraction in the latest Marvel Computergame.. a record breaking game made in collaboration with Lego.. and played by millions of kids that do not read comics yet... thus spreading the word and introducing them tio Deadpool.

 

If we take THE most popular character of each period:

Superman-Spiderman-Wolverine-Deadpool.... puts Deadpool in very good company...!!

 

Nothing soft or average about that.

 

Like most other Marvel issues from the same age supply is plentiful. But IH181 was another book that people did not think could sustain value because of large supply.. but that is going just fine. I actually think demand for Deadpool is here to stay and the book will not again get cheaper than it is now (baring slight ups and downs).

 

Opinions about the future.. we will have to wait and see...

[newshane]

Toooooo much quoting.... Agree re:IH181 and the like. People gonna buy what they gonna buy... Fact remains that after the movie prices will soften but will not 'burst' and will likely remain higher than they were before the announcement.

 

This is not always true. Not all books continue to stay at post speculative highs after the release of a subsequent movie or television show. To make this conclusion is not only dangerous, but also false.

 

I bet you're a blast at parties.

[cujobyte]

I have hundreds of comics. My son has one. The only one he wanted was a New Mutants 98. Luckily I bought it for him a couple months ago. I agree with everyone who says he's hugely popular with the younger crowd.

 

There's a club owner in Toronto that I promised a NM 98 to as a gift the next time I see him. I promised to get him a copy 3 months ago.

 

 

He tells me he's wanted a copy his entire life. I think he's about 35. He no longer actively collects (he holds what he has), he certainly doesn't speculate. He just wants a copy. There's going to be a lot of people like that.

 

 

He should have bought a copy when nobody cared about the character. Or wait a few years after the hype dies down and pick up a copy. Buying a copy right now isn't the most financially sound decision to make.

People want things when they start to command a premium price.

It`s the nature of the beast.

Did anybody want Marvel Preview 4 or Sunfire and Big Hero 6 #1 a few years ago when they could have been pulled out of dollar boxes?

Soon as they started hitting a high price that`s when they became desired.

 

This is so true.

 

IMO Deadpool's here to stay. 2 most popular characters these days: Harley & Deadpool. It'll have it's ups & downs but it's here to stay.