When will the New Mutants 98 bubble burst? 1 1

[kav]

Anyone have an idea what an australian NM 98 in 9.8 would be worth?

Edited December 14, 2014 by kav

[1Cool]

3.50?

[kav]

why you little-

[mintcollector]

Toooooo much quoting.... Agree re:IH181 and the like. People gonna buy what they gonna buy... Fact remains that after the movie prices will soften but will not 'burst' and will likely remain higher than they were before the announcement.

 

This is not always true. Not all books continue to stay at post speculative highs after the release of a subsequent movie or television show. To make this conclusion is not only dangerous, but also false.

 

I bet you're a blast at parties.

 

Do you really think I take the time to go to parties?

[comicalgems]

Toooooo much quoting.... Agree re:IH181 and the like. People gonna buy what they gonna buy... Fact remains that after the movie prices will soften but will not 'burst' and will likely remain higher than they were before the announcement.

 

This is not always true. Not all books continue to stay at post speculative highs after the release of a subsequent movie or television show. To make this conclusion is not only dangerous, but also false.

 

I bet you're a blast at parties.

 

Do you really think I take the time to go to parties?

 

It's not a party without mint!

[BarryAllen]

(Posted this argument in a different thread, but thought it would make more sense here.)

 

 

 

Based on data I have seen (confirmed in theory by RMA) there were around 300,000 copies of NM 98 produced and after around 100,000 of returns there were about 200,000 in distribution

 

So, how many NM 98 copies survived their days in the dollar bins? 100,000? 75,000? 50,000?

 

For the sake of argument let's assume the low end of 50,000, with an average value of say $350 - that would put the market cap at $17,500,000 (in reality this number is likely closer to $35,000,000).

 

Compare that to a Walking Dead 1 assuming 6,000 survived (of the roughly 7,300 produced) with an average value of say $1,000 - the market cap would be $6,000,000.

 

While Deadpool is very popular, he is not anywhere near the popularity of the Walking Dead. The last two years WD 1 is selling fairly steadily around $2,000ish (GPA) with a show at the height of its popularity (so far) and enough merchandise for every kid in America to own at least 2 action figures and a lunch box. Additionally, take into account that it is also a genre and therefore appeals to a much broader audience versus a singular character. This leads me to believe that a pop-culture major player like this sustains around a $6,000,000 market cap on its key first comic issue.

 

Given that the show has reached far more viewers than a Deadpool movie ever will, I find it hard to believe that NM 98 (a book in far more supply) can sustain almost triple the market cap; even with a hit movie. There just aren't enough hardcore Deadpool fans with that kind of cash needed to keep up the demand required to sustain a market cap that large.

 

It is clearly inflated right now by the movie news due to speculators and a large number of dealers/hoarders releasing a high grade copy or two at a time to maximize profits on the full short-boxes they have of the title (FYI - I have seen more than a few of these boxes at LCS, dealers and hoarders stock).

 

Net, NM 98 is bubble poised to burst.

 

 

 

 

*Please note for the purposes of this argument I assumed that the WD 1 current value is not experiencing a bubble itself. I do not believe this, but thought it would be fun to create an argument from that basis. Its the internet, so yeah, cool.

Edited January 1, 2015 by rfoiii

[Tony S]

(Posted this argument in a different thread, but thought it would make more sense here.)

 

 

 

Based on data I have seen (confirmed in theory by RMA) there were around 300,000 copies of NM 98 produced and after around 100,000 of returns there were about 200,000 in distribution

 

So, how many NM 98 copies survived their days in the dollar bins? 100,000? 75,000? 50,000?

 

For the sake of argument let's assume the low end of 50,000, with an average value of say $350 - that would put the market cap at $17,500,000 (in reality this number is likely closer to $35,000,000).

 

Compare that to a Walking Dead 1 assuming 6,000 survived (of the roughly 7,300 produced) with an average value of say $1,000 - the market cap would be $6,000,000.

 

While Deadpool is very popular, he is not anywhere near the popularity of the Walking Dead. The last two years WD 1 is selling fairly steadily around $2,000ish (GPA) with a show at the height of its popularity (so far) and enough merchandise for every kid in America to own at least 2 action figures and a lunch box. Additionally, take into account that it is also a genre and therefore appeals to a much broader audience versus a singular character. This leads me to believe that a pop-culture major player like this sustains around a $6,000,000 market cap on its key first comic issue.

 

Given that the show has reached far more viewers than a Deadpool movie ever will, I find it hard to believe that NM 98 (a book in far more supply) can sustain almost triple the market cap; even with a hit movie. There just aren't enough hardcore Deadpool fans with that kind of cash needed to keep up the demand required to sustain a market cap that large.

 

It is clearly inflated right now by the movie news due to speculators and a large number of dealers/hoarders releasing a high grade copy or two at a time to maximize profits on the full short-boxes they have of the title (FYI - I have seen more than a few of these boxes at LCS, dealers and hoarders stock).

 

Net, NM 98 is bubble poised to burst.

 

 

 

 

*Please note for the purposes of this argument I assumed that the WD 1 current value is not experiencing a bubble itself. I do not believe this, but thought it would be fun to create an argument from that basis. Its the internet, so yeah, cool.

 

An interesting post, but there are some "facts" in this post that I don't believe can be proved to be true and might be false.

 

You are no doubt correct that there are far more copies of NM 98 than Walking Dead 1,We don't actually know how many copies of WD 1 there might be. We know Diamond estimated 7,266 copies were shipped to North American retailers. Walking Dead creators have always been tight lipped about how many copies were printed. For all we know Kirkman has half a dozen long boxes stuffed full in his living room. If the print run on WD 1 corresponds with the Diamond figures, then it is interesting to note that 29% of the total printed copies have been slabbed by CGC and figure still more have been slabbed by a few other grading companies whose names shall not be mentioned.

 

You are most likely wrong about the audience size of a Deadpool movie versus the Walking Dead TV show. Walking Dead is a very popular TV show. T V Show. This past season was it's most viewed yet. averaging close to 15 million viewers. A successful superhero type movies - say Iron Man 2 or Batman Returns sells 40 million tickets. Widely successful ones do 2x that number. Look up all time box office adjusted for ticket price. Gone With the Wind is number 1, have sold over 200 million tickets.

 

A Deadpool movie in wide theater release is going to reach more people that the WD TV show.

 

Last point: WD comic averages sales of what, 70,000 copies a month? It is consistently in the top 20 of comic book sales, sometimes top 10 (it was #14 in November) I think it's been #1 at least once with a special and a gazillion different covers. All of this with a TV show that's been running 5 years and has a viewership of 15 million. The comic and the TV show reach completely different audiences. There is NOT - I will swear to my dying breath - ANY meaningful cross over of people watching the show buying the comic. If there was - if only one in 100 people watching the show were buying the comic, the monthly sales of WD would triple. We'd be seeing sales of 200,000 + copies a month. We haven't yet, we aren't going to.

 

Of course the same is pretty much true for movies as well. Any bump in comic sales is small and according to comic store owners just existing collectors adding a title, not people off the street.

 

My point being that comic book collectors decide what books are worth. TV, movies - that's all good. But the value of the books the TV shows and movies are based on is still being determined by collectors. EXISTING collectors. Not new ones brought in by the movies and TV shows.

 

[sonicyouth]

Walking Dead has made me lots of money last 2 years but anyone who thinks Walking Dead is not a fad needs some history lessons.

 

 

ren and stimpy #1

 

X-files #1 (topps low print)

 

Both of these books were at one time for several years (roughly 2-3 years) running, the hottest comic book on the planet.

 

In the mid 90's Topps X-files books were all the craze. collectors sunk hundreds,thousands of dollars into X-files hype given the first few issues had a low print run or so we were told by every dealer from here to long island. we bought up valiant books and X-files like it was going out of style.

 

X-files #1 and #0 actually shot up to over a hundred each.

 

Because X-files was so popular at the time. The most popular sci-fi/suspense show on televesion, and one of the most popular TV shows at the time, many collectors and hoarders thought X-files was bullet proof.

 

I hear the EXACT same comments about Walking Dead today. open up an old Wizard an you can read some of the ridiculous articles/comments about how great and solid investment X-files comics are.

 

 

I don't think its possible to compare NM 98 to a television show.

 

We have to compare Walking Dead with other television comics. and with what evidence/data we have, it does not look good for walking dead, say 20 years from now.

 

20 years from now will people remember walking dead? anyone still have thier X-files comics in a sig?

[slym2none]

20 years from now will people remember walking dead?

 

Yes. Of all the things, zombies have stuck around with power akin to Superman, Batman, and Spider-Man. Some things come and go out of fashion, but the above named things have stuck around for a looong time. With TWD being one of the most popular zombie stories ever made, I personally think it will have a VERY long-lasting impact on not just comic culture, but pop-culture over all.

 

 

 

 

-slym

[rjrjr]

20 years from now will people remember walking dead?

 

Yes. Of all the things, zombies have stuck around with power akin to Superman, Batman, and Spider-Man. Some things come and go out of fashion, but the above named things have stuck around for a looong time. With TWD being one of the most popular zombie stories ever made, I personally think it will have a VERY long-lasting impact on not just comic culture, but pop-culture over all.

 

 

 

 

-slym

 

It should have been zombies in Watchmen, not pirates.

[slym2none]

::

 

 

 

-slym

[mintcollector]

20 years from now will people remember walking dead?

 

Yes. Of all the things, zombies have stuck around with power akin to Superman, Batman, and Spider-Man. Some things come and go out of fashion, but the above named things have stuck around for a looong time. With TWD being one of the most popular zombie stories ever made, I personally think it will have a VERY long-lasting impact on not just comic culture, but pop-culture over all.

 

 

 

 

-slym

 

Of course! The Walking Dead will easily be remembered in twenty years. Whether or not it will still be popular is what is being questioned.

 

 

[Lazyboy]

Walking Dead has made me lots of money last 2 years but anyone who thinks Walking Dead is not a fad needs some history lessons.

 

 

ren and stimpy #1

 

X-files #1 (topps low print)

 

Both of these books were at one time for several years (roughly 2-3 years) running, the hottest comic book on the planet.

 

In the mid 90's Topps X-files books were all the craze. collectors sunk hundreds,thousands of dollars into X-files hype given the first few issues had a low print run or so we were told by every dealer from here to long island. we bought up valiant books and X-files like it was going out of style.

 

X-files #1 and #0 actually shot up to over a hundred each.

 

Because X-files was so popular at the time. The most popular sci-fi/suspense show on televesion, and one of the most popular TV shows at the time, many collectors and hoarders thought X-files was bullet proof.

 

I hear the EXACT same comments about Walking Dead today. open up an old Wizard an you can read some of the ridiculous articles/comments about how great and solid investment X-files comics are.

 

 

I don't think its possible to compare NM 98 to a television show.

 

We have to compare Walking Dead with other television comics. and with what evidence/data we have, it does not look good for walking dead, say 20 years from now.

 

20 years from now will people remember walking dead? anyone still have thier X-files comics in a sig?

Properties from other media being licensed/adapted for comics is not a valid comparison to the reverse.

[BarryAllen]

(Posted this argument in a different thread, but thought it would make more sense here.)

 

 

Based on data I have seen (confirmed in theory by RMA) there were around 300,000 copies of NM 98 produced and after around 100,000 of returns there were about 200,000 in distribution

 

So, how many NM 98 copies survived their days in the dollar bins? 100,000? 75,000? 50,000?

 

For the sake of argument let's assume the low end of 50,000, with an average value of say $350 - that would put the market cap at $17,500,000 (in reality this number is likely closer to $35,000,000).

 

Compare that to a Walking Dead 1 assuming 6,000 survived (of the roughly 7,300 produced) with an average value of say $1,000 - the market cap would be $6,000,000.

 

While Deadpool is very popular, he is not anywhere near the popularity of the Walking Dead. The last two years WD 1 is selling fairly steadily around $2,000ish (GPA) with a show at the height of its popularity (so far) and enough merchandise for every kid in America to own at least 2 action figures and a lunch box. Additionally, take into account that it is also a genre and therefore appeals to a much broader audience versus a singular character. This leads me to believe that a pop-culture major player like this sustains around a $6,000,000 market cap on its key first comic issue.

 

Given that the show has reached far more viewers than a Deadpool movie ever will, I find it hard to believe that NM 98 (a book in far more supply) can sustain almost triple the market cap; even with a hit movie. There just aren't enough hardcore Deadpool fans with that kind of cash needed to keep up the demand required to sustain a market cap that large.

 

It is clearly inflated right now by the movie news due to speculators and a large number of dealers/hoarders releasing a high grade copy or two at a time to maximize profits on the full short-boxes they have of the title (FYI - I have seen more than a few of these boxes at LCS, dealers and hoarders stock).

 

Net, NM 98 is bubble poised to burst.

 

 

 

 

*Please note for the purposes of this argument I assumed that the WD 1 current value is not experiencing a bubble itself. I do not believe this, but thought it would be fun to create an argument from that basis. Its the internet, so yeah, cool.

 

An interesting post, but there are some "facts" in this post that I don't believe can be proved to be true and might be false.

 

You are no doubt correct that there are far more copies of NM 98 than Walking Dead 1,We don't actually know how many copies of WD 1 there might be. We know Diamond estimated 7,266 copies were shipped to North American retailers. Walking Dead creators have always been tight lipped about how many copies were printed. For all we know Kirkman has half a dozen long boxes stuffed full in his living room. If the print run on WD 1 corresponds with the Diamond figures, then it is interesting to note that 29% of the total printed copies have been slabbed by CGC and figure still more have been slabbed by a few other grading companies whose names shall not be mentioned.

 

You are most likely wrong about the audience size of a Deadpool movie versus the Walking Dead TV show. Walking Dead is a very popular TV show. T V Show. This past season was it's most viewed yet. averaging close to 15 million viewers. A successful superhero type movies - say Iron Man 2 or Batman Returns sells 40 million tickets. Widely successful ones do 2x that number. Look up all time box office adjusted for ticket price. Gone With the Wind is number 1, have sold over 200 million tickets.

 

A Deadpool movie in wide theater release is going to reach more people that the WD TV show.

 

Last point: WD comic averages sales of what, 70,000 copies a month? It is consistently in the top 20 of comic book sales, sometimes top 10 (it was #14 in November) I think it's been #1 at least once with a special and a gazillion different covers. All of this with a TV show that's been running 5 years and has a viewership of 15 million. The comic and the TV show reach completely different audiences. There is NOT - I will swear to my dying breath - ANY meaningful cross over of people watching the show buying the comic. If there was - if only one in 100 people watching the show were buying the comic, the monthly sales of WD would triple. We'd be seeing sales of 200,000 + copies a month. We haven't yet, we aren't going to.

 

Of course the same is pretty much true for movies as well. Any bump in comic sales is small and according to comic store owners just existing collectors adding a title, not people off the street.

 

My point being that comic book collectors decide what books are worth. TV, movies - that's all good. But the value of the books the TV shows and movies are based on is still being determined by collectors. EXISTING collectors. Not new ones brought in by the movies and TV shows.

 

First of all thank you for taking the time to read my post and write a reply. I appreciate you taking time to discuss the topic and defend your personal position. Now on to the discussion:

 

 

No offense, but common sense and the internet can easily prove all the facts in my argument are solid. Making statements that they may be false is not a valid argument, Walking Dead is far more popular than Deapool from both a comic perspective and a pop culture perspective - there is no disputing this (see elaboration with data below).

 

Of course there is a meaningful connection between the show and the comic book with Walking Dead (and Deadpool for that matter). Without the show, the comic wouldn't be worth near what it is. Arguing otherwise is akin to saying that the Deadpool movie announcement has nothing to do with the rise in price of NM 98 (again there is a direct provable correlation with timing). While I appreciate your passion, your statement is patently false. A large number of people buying either these books are not the comic readers, they are speculating on the value based on the popularity driven by all forms of media (which is why especially in the case of Deadpool, the book sky-rocketed in value overnight). Even if you don't believe that - sales are driven by marketing and both physical and mental availability - which means that all forms of communication drive awareness (comics, action figures, shows, stickers, magazines, etc are all connected). Comic readers and owners don't set comic prices, the entire market sets prices. If you don't believe me read the book "How Brands Grow" by Byron Sharp ( another link to buy a book that is full of silly data ) or an Econ 101/102 book on supply/demand and market pricing.

 

Now let's talk your movie example reaching more people than a show that has been around for 5 years and reaches 15 million people on average per episode and climbed past 22 million for the season 5 premiere. ( linky with fictional data ). An outstanding superhero movie does around $500 million at the box office, while an average one does around $100 million. At $10 a ticket that gives you a range of 50 million people to 10 million people seeing the movie. Now it is well known that Ryan Reynolds has proven to be an ineffective box office draw on his own, particularly as a superhero. Even if you exclude Ryan Reynolds from the equation, DP is an extremely tough character to portray and there is a big difference between a successful comic character and successful movie character. Comic movies have flopped too many times to count, in many instances with much less complex characterizations to deal-with. If anything the movie represents a risk to the character's long-term equity. So for arguments sake, let's assume the movie does better than average (unlikely) and gets to $200 million - that means there are 20 million viewers or the equivalent of just over 1 episode of Walking Dead.

 

Lastly let's talk the comics themselves, just taking the "mainstream title:" the November 2014 comic sales of Walking Dead was 70,000 and Deadpool with 51,000. October 2014 had 69,000 for Walking Dead and 46,000 for Deadpool. September had 69,000 for Walking Dead and 58,000 for Deadpool. Walking Dead sells more comics on a monthly basis than Deadpool. ( another linky link with fictious data )

 

No matter how you slice it, Walking Dead is far more popular than Deadpool. With that popularity is a correlation to a proven larger sizable fan base which gives the ability to sustain larger purchasing power or in this instance a market cap on the key first appearance in comic. Given that the current market cap on Deadpool is at least double the size of the Walking Dead market cap; economically speaking, it is fairly easy to correlate that to a bubble.

 

I like Deadpool too, but there just aren't enough people being reached on a regular basis to sustain the kind of demand required to maintain the current pricing. The point isn't that all the people watching the show buy the comic book (that would be silly), the point is that it takes everything that Walking Dead is about in market to sustain the price of the #1 issue (this is the same for Spiderman, Superman, Batman, Deadpool, etc). Its math.

 

Thank you for the continued discussion, I apologize for the long-winded response. This is fun.

Edited January 1, 2015 by rfoiii

[Lazyboy]

Lastly let's talk the comics themselves, just taking the "mainstream title:" the November 2014 comic sales of Walking Dead was 70,000 and Deadpool with 51,000. October 2014 had 69,000 for Walking Dead and 46,000 for Deadpool. September had 69,000 for Walking Dead and 58,000 for Deadpool. Walking Dead sells more comics on a monthly basis than Deadpool. ( another linky link with fictious data )

That's just false. Walking Dead absolutely does not outsell Deadpool even if the one WD title outsells any individual DP title.

 

Oh, and "market cap" is a ridiculous concept to try to apply to comics.

[BarryAllen]

Lastly let's talk the comics themselves, just taking the "mainstream title:" the November 2014 comic sales of Walking Dead was 70,000 and Deadpool with 51,000. October 2014 had 69,000 for Walking Dead and 46,000 for Deadpool. September had 69,000 for Walking Dead and 58,000 for Deadpool. Walking Dead sells more comics on a monthly basis than Deadpool. ( another linky link with fictious data )

That's just false. Walking Dead absolutely does not outsell Deadpool even if the one WD title outsells any individual DP title.

 

Oh, and "market cap" is a ridiculous concept to try to apply to comics.

 

The monthly sales data is right there, you can dislike it all you want, but it is accurate. Walking Dead comics outsell Deadpool on a monthly basis.

 

I personally think a "market cap" argument is very applicable to comics and I am not the first one on the site to use it (feel free to read the portion below if you want to see my simple reasoning). However, if you disagree please feel free to provide data and a compelling point of view to disprove it.

 

Just stating that something is ridiculous or false, doesn't make it so.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Definition of 'Market Capitalization' (market cap)

The total dollar market value of all of a company's outstanding shares. Market capitalization is calculated by multiplying a company's shares outstanding by the current market price of one share.

 

Why do people buy stock: they believe in the company, enjoy its products, relate to its purpose or principles, see the company growing in there future, see the stock holding its value over time or see its value growing over time (among many other reasons).

 

Why do people buy a comic: enjoy the product, relate to the characters (purposes, principles, cool powers, etc), see the series growing in the future (movies, action figures, statues, more comics, etc), see its value holding over time or see its value growing over time (among many other reasons).

 

Think of Walking Dead as a company and issue #1 as the shares. People buy the comics like they are buying part of the company. They believe in it: either as an investment, for personal enjoyment, to remember their youth, to support the brand or any other handful of reasons.

 

I think the analogy is a very strong one. :shrug:

Edited January 1, 2015 by rfoiii

[mysterio]

Both NM #98 and WD #1 are in bubbles driven by comic collectors/hoarders/dealers. Both books are bad long term bets at these prices. NM #98 has too many extant copies to support these prices, and the time to sell was the day after the movie was announced and 9.8s jumped to $800-1000. WD will have a longer time frame, and will settle at a higher price, but its current level is unsustainable. I anticipate that it will be a mid to high three figure book in 9.8 a few years after the show ends, if not prior to that.

 

This is just my own experience, but the folks I talk to about the WD show, many of which are big fans, couldn't care less about the comics. I offer to lend them my set of the 1-12 GNs to jump start reading the book, and they aren't interested. These are folks that consider WD to be one of their favorite shows, and they can't be bothered to read it for FREE. This is why the sales of the comic aren't higher, because it has captured very few new readers who weren't already buying comics. Those 70,000 books are being sold to readers, hoarders, and flippers, and are very poor places to park one's money for any reason other than the 4-5 minutes of entertainment in reading it.

[mintcollector]

Both NM #98 and WD #1 are in bubbles driven by comic collectors/hoarders/dealers. Both books are bad long term bets at these prices. NM #98 has too many extant copies to support these prices, and the time to sell was the day after the movie was announced and 9.8s jumped to $800-1000. WD will have a longer time frame, and will settle at a higher price, but its current level is unsustainable. I anticipate that it will be a mid to high three figure book in 9.8 a few years after the show ends, if not prior to that.

 

This is just my own experience, but the folks I talk to about the WD show, many of which are big fans, couldn't care less about the comics. I offer to lend them my set of the 1-12 GNs to jump start reading the book, and they aren't interested. These are folks that consider WD to be one of their favorite shows, and they can't be bothered to read it for FREE. This is why the sales of the comic aren't higher, because it has captured very few new readers who weren't already buying comics. Those 70,000 books are being sold to readers, hoarders, and flippers, and are very poor places to park one's money for any reason other than the 4-5 minutes of entertainment in reading it.

 

+1

 

Isn't it interesting to note how many 'speculators' are now clamoring for a copy of NM 98 after the price has escalated. Where were these same individuals when you could get a copy in 9.8 for less than $400? This book is being submitted to CGC en masse. I just helped a friend clean out a spare room in which we found five high grade copies of this issue alone. What do you think is currently on its way to be pressed and graded right now? The census will only increase while the popularity will eventually dwindle. For anyone who doesn't think that books like NM 98 and Ms Marvel 1 aren't operating in a bubble I have a nice bridge to sell you or some so called rare Amiibos. Who's buying?

[jimbo_707]

Based on data I have seen . . . there were about 200,000 in distribution

 

So, how many NM 98 copies survived their days in the dollar bins?

 

For the sake of argument let's assume the low end of 50,000, with an average value of say $350 - that would put the market cap at $17,500,000 (in reality this number is likely closer to $35,000,000).

 

Net, NM 98 is bubble poised to burst.

 

Your estimate of 50,000 copies is probably low. I was buying books off the rack in the late 80s and, although I stopped before NM98 hit the stands, I remember that it was one of the "hot" titles, one that everybody was bagging and boarding--like Howard the Duck before it, like X-Factor, like Cerebus the Aardvark (which never ran over 30,000 copies per month).

 

Not only are there very likely massive quantities still out there raw, there are very likely massive quantities in very high grades (9.8, 9.9, 10.0). 10 years from now a slabbed 9.8 will be a $30 book. Anything below 9.8 will have no value except as a reading copy.

 

I don't think it's a bubble that's going to "pop," though. It's more like a tire with a slow leak.

[Darkowl]

Out of curiosity, when the 9.8 copies were selling for $200 to $300, how many here thought it would soon be a financial loss?