When will the New Mutants 98 bubble burst? 1 1

[FineCollector]

I don't think New Mutants 98 ever reached dollar bins where I was, people looked after them. X-Force 1 fell out of favor because of ridiculous quantities, but later New Mutants were at least bin stock. Wizard magazine singled out the 98 as a multi-key issue (1st Domino, Deadpool, and... Gideon?), so people picked it. It may have been a $5 book, but I never saw it out for sale.

 

 

[Darkowl]

I don't think New Mutants 98 ever reached dollar bins where I was, people looked after them. X-Force 1 fell out of favor because of ridiculous quantities, but later New Mutants were at least bin stock. Wizard magazine singled out the 98 as a multi-key issue (1st Domino, Deadpool, and... Gideon?), so people picked it. It may have been a $5 book, but I never saw it out for sale.

 

 

This is how I remember it.

[BarryAllen]

Based on data I have seen . . . there were about 200,000 in distribution

 

So, how many NM 98 copies survived their days in the dollar bins?

 

For the sake of argument let's assume the low end of 50,000, with an average value of say $350 - that would put the market cap at $17,500,000 (in reality this number is likely closer to $35,000,000).

 

Net, NM 98 is bubble poised to burst.

 

Your estimate of 50,000 copies is probably low. I was buying books off the rack in the late 80s and, although I stopped before NM98 hit the stands, I remember that it was one of the "hot" titles, one that everybody was bagging and boarding--like Howard the Duck before it, like X-Factor, like Cerebus the Aardvark (which never ran over 30,000 copies per month).

 

Not only are there very likely massive quantities still out there raw, there are very likely massive quantities in very high grades (9.8, 9.9, 10.0). 10 years from now a slabbed 9.8 will be a $30 book. Anything below 9.8 will have no value except as a reading copy.

 

I don't think it's a bubble that's going to "pop," though. It's more like a tire with a slow leak.

 

I chose the low number to illustrate the point of how inflated the bubble could actually be and to make the argument more palatable. I agree 50,000 is low, but at 75,000 or 100,000 the price correction that is coming is even steeper (which to your point is actually the case).

 

Pop, slow leak, deflate... Don't really need to mince terms, in reality the descriptor doesn't matter because we are both saying the same thing - NM 98 price is going to come down; how fast is anyone's guess.

[BarryAllen]

I don't think New Mutants 98 ever reached dollar bins where I was, people looked after them. X-Force 1 fell out of favor because of ridiculous quantities, but later New Mutants were at least bin stock. Wizard magazine singled out the 98 as a multi-key issue (1st Domino, Deadpool, and... Gideon?), so people picked it. It may have been a $5 book, but I never saw it out for sale.

 

 

eh

 

I took that point from another boardie who has a lot of experience. However, the purpose was to illustrate that the book was in high supply at low prices. $1 vs $5 :shrug: not really a material difference in my book.

 

I get your point though. (thumbs u

Edited January 1, 2015 by rfoiii

[Darkowl]

Based on data I have seen . . . there were about 200,000 in distribution

 

So, how many NM 98 copies survived their days in the dollar bins?

 

For the sake of argument let's assume the low end of 50,000, with an average value of say $350 - that would put the market cap at $17,500,000 (in reality this number is likely closer to $35,000,000).

 

Net, NM 98 is bubble poised to burst.

 

Your estimate of 50,000 copies is probably low. I was buying books off the rack in the late 80s and, although I stopped before NM98 hit the stands, I remember that it was one of the "hot" titles, one that everybody was bagging and boarding--like Howard the Duck before it, like X-Factor, like Cerebus the Aardvark (which never ran over 30,000 copies per month).

 

Not only are there very likely massive quantities still out there raw, there are very likely massive quantities in very high grades (9.8, 9.9, 10.0). 10 years from now a slabbed 9.8 will be a $30 book. Anything below 9.8 will have no value except as a reading copy.

 

I don't think it's a bubble that's going to "pop," though. It's more like a tire with a slow leak.

 

I chose the low number to illustrate the point of how inflated the bubble could actually be and to make the argument more palatable. I agree 50,000 is low, but at 75,000 or 100,000 the price correction that is coming is even steeper (which to your point is actually the case).

 

Pop, slow leak, deflate... Don't really need to mince terms, in reality the descriptor doesn't matter because we are both saying the same thing - NM 98 price is going to come down; how fast is anyone's guess.

 

Don't forget our little bet.

[BarryAllen]

Out of curiosity, when the 9.8 copies were selling for $200 to $300, how many here thought it would soon be a financial loss?

 

It depends on your time horizon. If you bought at $200 and it settles at $175 in three years, you have a loss.

 

I don't think anyone could anticipate the hyper-inflation post movie announcement. It is one of the fastest growing and highest from a percentage standpoint I have seen in a long time.

 

To your point though, if you bought in at $200 (or like many today are rolling the dice and pressing copies) there is short-term money to be made.

[BarryAllen]

Based on data I have seen . . . there were about 200,000 in distribution

 

So, how many NM 98 copies survived their days in the dollar bins?

 

For the sake of argument let's assume the low end of 50,000, with an average value of say $350 - that would put the market cap at $17,500,000 (in reality this number is likely closer to $35,000,000).

 

Net, NM 98 is bubble poised to burst.

 

Your estimate of 50,000 copies is probably low. I was buying books off the rack in the late 80s and, although I stopped before NM98 hit the stands, I remember that it was one of the "hot" titles, one that everybody was bagging and boarding--like Howard the Duck before it, like X-Factor, like Cerebus the Aardvark (which never ran over 30,000 copies per month).

 

Not only are there very likely massive quantities still out there raw, there are very likely massive quantities in very high grades (9.8, 9.9, 10.0). 10 years from now a slabbed 9.8 will be a $30 book. Anything below 9.8 will have no value except as a reading copy.

 

I don't think it's a bubble that's going to "pop," though. It's more like a tire with a slow leak.

 

I chose the low number to illustrate the point of how inflated the bubble could actually be and to make the argument more palatable. I agree 50,000 is low, but at 75,000 or 100,000 the price correction that is coming is even steeper (which to your point is actually the case).

 

Pop, slow leak, deflate... Don't really need to mince terms, in reality the descriptor doesn't matter because we are both saying the same thing - NM 98 price is going to come down; how fast is anyone's guess.

 

Don't forget our little bet.

 

Oh I won't. Although it will be a bit of a bitter-sweet win when I get a $15 CGC 9.0 copy of the book from you.

Edited January 1, 2015 by rfoiii

[Darkowl]

Based on data I have seen . . . there were about 200,000 in distribution

 

So, how many NM 98 copies survived their days in the dollar bins?

 

For the sake of argument let's assume the low end of 50,000, with an average value of say $350 - that would put the market cap at $17,500,000 (in reality this number is likely closer to $35,000,000).

 

Net, NM 98 is bubble poised to burst.

 

Your estimate of 50,000 copies is probably low. I was buying books off the rack in the late 80s and, although I stopped before NM98 hit the stands, I remember that it was one of the "hot" titles, one that everybody was bagging and boarding--like Howard the Duck before it, like X-Factor, like Cerebus the Aardvark (which never ran over 30,000 copies per month).

 

Not only are there very likely massive quantities still out there raw, there are very likely massive quantities in very high grades (9.8, 9.9, 10.0). 10 years from now a slabbed 9.8 will be a $30 book. Anything below 9.8 will have no value except as a reading copy.

 

I don't think it's a bubble that's going to "pop," though. It's more like a tire with a slow leak.

 

I chose the low number to illustrate the point of how inflated the bubble could actually be and to make the argument more palatable. I agree 50,000 is low, but at 75,000 or 100,000 the price correction that is coming is even steeper (which to your point is actually the case).

 

Pop, slow leak, deflate... Don't really need to mince terms, in reality the descriptor doesn't matter because we are both saying the same thing - NM 98 price is going to come down; how fast is anyone's guess.

 

Don't forget our little bet.

 

Oh I won't. Although it will be a bit of a bitter-sweet win when I get a $15 CGC 9.0 copy of the book from you.

 

[BarryAllen]

Based on data I have seen . . . there were about 200,000 in distribution

 

So, how many NM 98 copies survived their days in the dollar bins?

 

For the sake of argument let's assume the low end of 50,000, with an average value of say $350 - that would put the market cap at $17,500,000 (in reality this number is likely closer to $35,000,000).

 

Net, NM 98 is bubble poised to burst.

 

Your estimate of 50,000 copies is probably low. I was buying books off the rack in the late 80s and, although I stopped before NM98 hit the stands, I remember that it was one of the "hot" titles, one that everybody was bagging and boarding--like Howard the Duck before it, like X-Factor, like Cerebus the Aardvark (which never ran over 30,000 copies per month).

 

Not only are there very likely massive quantities still out there raw, there are very likely massive quantities in very high grades (9.8, 9.9, 10.0). 10 years from now a slabbed 9.8 will be a $30 book. Anything below 9.8 will have no value except as a reading copy.

 

I don't think it's a bubble that's going to "pop," though. It's more like a tire with a slow leak.

 

I chose the low number to illustrate the point of how inflated the bubble could actually be and to make the argument more palatable. I agree 50,000 is low, but at 75,000 or 100,000 the price correction that is coming is even steeper (which to your point is actually the case).

 

Pop, slow leak, deflate... Don't really need to mince terms, in reality the descriptor doesn't matter because we are both saying the same thing - NM 98 price is going to come down; how fast is anyone's guess.

 

Don't forget our little bet.

 

Oh I won't. Although it will be a bit of a bitter-sweet win when I get a $15 CGC 9.0 copy of the book from you.

 

 

[Vikingreed]

People have been warning of the NM #98's balloon popping for years.....

And it just keeps going up, and up, and up.

 

Fans of all ages love DP.

 

[BarryAllen]

People have been warning of the NM #98's balloon popping for years.....

And it just keeps going up.

 

Fans of all ages love DP.

 

People said the same thing about the housing market.

 

Just because people can see something coming, but don't have a crystal ball to pin-point the exact timing, doesn't make the threat any less real.

 

And no one is disputing that DP isn't loved by all, but the god of supply and demand will have his way. He is a patient god, but a vengeful one as well!

[Vikingreed]

What does that god say about IH #181?

Or ASM #300?

[BarryAllen]

What does that god say about IH #181?

Or ASM #300?

 

Deadpool is not the same thing as Wolverine or Spider-man.

 

He is also not Superman, Batman or even the Hulk or Iron Man.

 

Once he has been in 3-5 major motion pictures over a decade or longer, then we can talk.

 

 

Those books have large print runs but also have much larger fan bases. Far far far larger fan bases.

 

 

 

If you read the discussion in detail, it is obvious that a large print run is only one part of an equation for market pricing. It is supply and demand, not just supply and not just demand.

Edited January 1, 2015 by rfoiii

[mintcollector]

Out of curiosity, when the 9.8 copies were selling for $200 to $300, how many here thought it would soon be a financial loss?

 

You are welcome to search the forum for my past comments on this very issue. I had stated previously if a movie was announced the book would spike in value. It is long term that I have issues with the sudden increase in price. It is not sustainable at these levels. Anyone remember when Transformers 1 in 9.8 was destind to be and remain a $1000 book? How come this forum never focuses on topics of this caliber? What about books like TOD 1 and Swamp Thing 1 that were selling for close to $3000 each in 9.8 and deemed to be 'great investments?' Great investments to whom; current sellers at the time?

 

 

 

[Vikingreed]

What does that god say about IH #181?

Or ASM #300?

 

Deadpool is not the same thing as Wolverine or Spider-man.

 

He is also not Superman, Batman or even the Hulk or Iron Man.

 

Once he has been in 3-5 major motion pictures over a decade or longer, then we can talk.

 

 

Those books have large print runs but also have much larger fan bases. Far far far larger fan bases.

 

 

 

If you read the discussion in detail, it is obvious that a large print run is only one part of an equation for market pricing. It is supply and demand, not just supply and not just demand.

 

 

Fair enough.

Time will tell, and all that jazz.

 

 

[Darkowl]

Out of curiosity, when the 9.8 copies were selling for $200 to $300, how many here thought it would soon be a financial loss?

 

You are welcome to search the forum for my past comments on this very issue. I had stated previously if a movie was announced the book would spike in value. It is long term that I have issues with the sudden increase in price. It is not sustainable at these levels. Anyone remember when Transformers 1 in 9.8 was destind to be and remain a $1000 book? How come this forum never focuses on topics of this caliber? What about books like TOD 1 and Swamp Thing 1 that were selling for close to $3000 each in 9.8 and deemed to be 'great investments?' Great investments to whom; current sellers at the time?

 

 

 

Well, I do blame these people for the value decline with Transformers 1...

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

Walking Dead has made me lots of money last 2 years but anyone who thinks Walking Dead is not a fad needs some history lessons.

 

 

ren and stimpy #1

 

X-files #1 (topps low print)

 

Both of these books were at one time for several years (roughly 2-3 years) running, the hottest comic book on the planet.

 

In the mid 90's Topps X-files books were all the craze. collectors sunk hundreds,thousands of dollars into X-files hype given the first few issues had a low print run or so we were told by every dealer from here to long island. we bought up valiant books and X-files like it was going out of style.

 

X-files #1 and #0 actually shot up to over a hundred each.

 

 

I think your memory may be a little rusty on a few of these details.

[mintcollector]

Out of curiosity, when the 9.8 copies were selling for $200 to $300, how many here thought it would soon be a financial loss?

 

You are welcome to search the forum for my past comments on this very issue. I had stated previously if a movie was announced the book would spike in value. It is long term that I have issues with the sudden increase in price. It is not sustainable at these levels. Anyone remember when Transformers 1 in 9.8 was destind to be and remain a $1000 book? How come this forum never focuses on topics of this caliber? What about books like TOD 1 and Swamp Thing 1 that were selling for close to $3000 each in 9.8 and deemed to be 'great investments?' Great investments to whom; current sellers at the time?

 

 

 

Well, I do blame these people for the value decline with Transformers 1...

 

 

I don't. It's still overpriced given how many copies exist in 9.8 and how many more exist in NM/Mint unslabbed.

[Darkowl]

I really don't either. I was just making a bad joke.

[Lazyboy]

What does that god say about IH #181?

Or ASM #300?

 

Deadpool is not the same thing as Wolverine or Spider-man.

 

He is also not Superman, Batman or even the Hulk or Iron Man.

 

Once he has been in 3-5 major motion pictures over a decade or longer, then we can talk.

 

 

Those books have large print runs but also have much larger fan bases. Far far far larger fan bases.

 

 

 

If you read the discussion in detail, it is obvious that a large print run is only one part of an equation for market pricing. It is supply and demand, not just supply and not just demand.

Please tell me you're kidding.

 

We have seen Venom in one movie, although that movie was a disappointment that made people think Sony couldn't screw up their Spidey franchise any worse (oops) and Venom sucked.

 

ASM may be more popular than New Mutants and McFarlane may be more popular than Liefeld, but Venom is not more popular than Deadpool now. And supply of ASM 300 is larger than NM 98.