When will the New Mutants 98 bubble burst? 1 1

[jimbo_707]

What does that god say about IH #181?

Or ASM #300?

My take: ASM#300 is in a significant bubble. IH#181 probably is too, but since it's a much earlier book, I don't have as good a feel for what the existing supply is like. I'm certain there are massive quantities of high-grade ASM#300 still out there raw. That's another one of those books that could spiral all the way down to a nominal value plus slabbing costs (say $30 for a slabbed 9.8). I'm not suggesting it will happen overnight. I'm talking 10 years out, give or take.

[BarryAllen]

What does that god say about IH #181?

Or ASM #300?

 

Deadpool is not the same thing as Wolverine or Spider-man.

 

He is also not Superman, Batman or even the Hulk or Iron Man.

 

Once he has been in 3-5 major motion pictures over a decade or longer, then we can talk.

 

 

Those books have large print runs but also have much larger fan bases. Far far far larger fan bases.

 

 

 

If you read the discussion in detail, it is obvious that a large print run is only one part of an equation for market pricing. It is supply and demand, not just supply and not just demand.

Please tell me you're kidding.

 

We have seen Venom in one movie, although that movie was a disappointment that made people think Sony couldn't screw up their Spidey franchise any worse (oops) and Venom sucked.

 

ASM may be more popular than New Mutants and McFarlane may be more popular than Liefeld, but Venom is not more popular than Deadpool now. And supply of ASM 300 is larger than NM 98.

 

 

ASM 300 is a Spider-man book. It is the first appearance of what many would consider his nemesis/archenemy and arguably one of his most popular foes, but it is still a Spider-man book with Spidey in his black costume on the cover.

 

Sure at current Deadpool is more popular than Venom, but if you think ASM 300 is only collected because of Venom you are kidding yourself.

 

Additionally, for the purposes of a bubble argument, you could say that both ASM 300 and IH 181 are experiencing bubbles themselves...

 

 

Edited January 1, 2015 by rfoiii

[ChrisInBaltimore]

What does that god say about IH #181?

Or ASM #300?

 

Deadpool is not the same thing as Wolverine or Spider-man.

 

He is also not Superman, Batman or even the Hulk or Iron Man.

 

Once he has been in 3-5 major motion pictures over a decade or longer, then we can talk.

 

 

Those books have large print runs but also have much larger fan bases. Far far far larger fan bases.

 

 

 

If you read the discussion in detail, it is obvious that a large print run is only one part of an equation for market pricing. It is supply and demand, not just supply and not just demand.

Please tell me you're kidding.

 

We have seen Venom in one movie, although that movie was a disappointment that made people think Sony couldn't screw up their Spidey franchise any worse (oops) and Venom sucked.

 

ASM may be more popular than New Mutants and McFarlane may be more popular than Liefeld, but Venom is not more popular than Deadpool now. And supply of ASM 300 is larger than NM 98.

 

 

ASM 300 is a Spider-man book. It is the first appearance of what many would consider his nemesis/archenemy and arguably one of his most popular foes, but it is still a Spider-man book with Spidey in his black costume on the cover.

 

Sure at current Deadpool is more popular than Venom, but if you think ASM 300 is only collected because of Venom you are kidding yourself.

 

Additionally, for the purposes of a bubble argument, you could say that both ASM 300 and IH 181 are experiencing bubbles themselves...

 

 

Just curious, were you born in the 80s? I was born in 85 and for a long time I would have agree with you on Venom. Then I really started filing in my Spidey run and reading more, and now I can't stand Venom. There is a lot of animosity towards the character too. That is largely from his usage the last 10 years, but I would never consider him Spideys nemesis or most popular. Those belong to Green Goblin or Doc Ock.

[BarryAllen]

What does that god say about IH #181?

Or ASM #300?

 

Deadpool is not the same thing as Wolverine or Spider-man.

 

He is also not Superman, Batman or even the Hulk or Iron Man.

 

Once he has been in 3-5 major motion pictures over a decade or longer, then we can talk.

 

 

Those books have large print runs but also have much larger fan bases. Far far far larger fan bases.

 

 

 

If you read the discussion in detail, it is obvious that a large print run is only one part of an equation for market pricing. It is supply and demand, not just supply and not just demand.

Please tell me you're kidding.

 

We have seen Venom in one movie, although that movie was a disappointment that made people think Sony couldn't screw up their Spidey franchise any worse (oops) and Venom sucked.

 

ASM may be more popular than New Mutants and McFarlane may be more popular than Liefeld, but Venom is not more popular than Deadpool now. And supply of ASM 300 is larger than NM 98.

 

 

ASM 300 is a Spider-man book. It is the first appearance of what many would consider his nemesis/archenemy and arguably one of his most popular foes, but it is still a Spider-man book with Spidey in his black costume on the cover.

 

Sure at current Deadpool is more popular than Venom, but if you think ASM 300 is only collected because of Venom you are kidding yourself.

 

Additionally, for the purposes of a bubble argument, you could say that both ASM 300 and IH 181 are experiencing bubbles themselves...

 

 

Just curious, were you born in the 80s? I was born in 85 and for a long time I would have agree with you on Venom. Then I really started filing in my Spidey run and reading more, and now I can't stand Venom. There is a lot of animosity towards the character too. That is largely from his usage the last 10 years, but I would never consider him Spideys nemesis or most popular. Those belong to Green Goblin or Doc Ock.

 

From a personal preference and collection standpoint, I agree. Green Goblin is his greatest foe followed shortly by Doc Ock.

 

Honestly I prefer the modern incarnation of Venom (Flash Thompson as Agent Venom) versus the 90's drivel pumped out in droves.

[RockMyAmadeus]

And supply of ASM 300 is larger than NM 98.

 

Data, please.

 

[rjrjr]

Based on data I have seen . . . there were about 200,000 in distribution

 

So, how many NM 98 copies survived their days in the dollar bins?

 

For the sake of argument let's assume the low end of 50,000, with an average value of say $350 - that would put the market cap at $17,500,000 (in reality this number is likely closer to $35,000,000).

 

Net, NM 98 is bubble poised to burst.

 

Your estimate of 50,000 copies is probably low. I was buying books off the rack in the late 80s and, although I stopped before NM98 hit the stands, I remember that it was one of the "hot" titles, one that everybody was bagging and boarding--like Howard the Duck before it, like X-Factor, like Cerebus the Aardvark (which never ran over 30,000 copies per month).

 

Not only are there very likely massive quantities still out there raw, there are very likely massive quantities in very high grades (9.8, 9.9, 10.0). 10 years from now a slabbed 9.8 will be a $30 book. Anything below 9.8 will have no value except as a reading copy.

 

I don't think it's a bubble that's going to "pop," though. It's more like a tire with a slow leak.

 

I have my misgivings about NM 98 as well, but it will NEVER be a $30 book in 9.8.

[CAHokie]

I have never been a fan of the Flash/Venom, but loved the early Venom stories from 300-320 or so.

[Darkowl]

Call me crazy, but I always thought Carnage was a lot cooler than Venom.

[mintcollector]

Personally I think the prices being paid for ASM 300 in 9.8 are insane, but the overall market seems to disagree with me. That book flirted with the $1,000 price point before a d I thought it was just a fluke. Much to my surprise it is still going strong.

[CAHokie]

Call me crazy, but I always thought Carnage was a lot cooler than Venom.

 

You

 

 

A lot of people would agree with you.

[Darkowl]

Call me crazy, but I always thought Carnage was a lot cooler than Venom.

 

You

 

 

A lot of people would agree with you.

 

 

You being the big Spidey fan that you are, who would you say is the most important and most popular villian?

 

 

[CAHokie]

Oh, you guys are right without a doubt. In my opinion it would have to be Doc Ock or Green Goblin because they both created extreme damage to him. One stole his true love and the other his life.

 

 

I think I am so partial to original Venom because that was my very first comic book and what got me into collecting. Hard to erase that nostalgia.

[Lazyboy]

ASM 300 is a Spider-man book. It is the first appearance of what many would consider his nemesis/archenemy and arguably one of his most popular foes, but it is still a Spider-man book with Spidey in his black costume on the cover.

Then don't respond that "Deadpool is not Wolverine" when somebody brings up IH 181, which is a Hulk book.

 

Sure at current Deadpool is more popular than Venom, but if you think ASM 300 is only collected because of Venom you are kidding yourself.

Yeah, because I didn't mention that it's an issue of ASM by McFarlane. Venom is still the major factor.

 

Additionally, for the purposes of a bubble argument, you could say that both ASM 300 and IH 181 are experiencing bubbles themselves...

 

Any comic worth anything is in a bubble right now. The current market is ridiculous.

[Darkowl]

Oh, you guys are right without a doubt. In my opinion it would have to be Doc Ock or Green Goblin because they both created extreme damage to him. One stole his true love and the other his life.

 

 

I think I am so partial to original Venom because that was my very first comic book and what got me into collecting. Hard to erase that nostalgia.

 

So true!

[BarryAllen]

ASM 300 is a Spider-man book. It is the first appearance of what many would consider his nemesis/archenemy and arguably one of his most popular foes, but it is still a Spider-man book with Spidey in his black costume on the cover.

Then don't respond that "Deadpool is not Wolverine" when somebody brings up IH 181, which is a Hulk book.

 

Sure at current Deadpool is more popular than Venom, but if you think ASM 300 is only collected because of Venom you are kidding yourself.

Yeah, because I didn't mention that it's an issue of ASM by McFarlane. Venom is still the major factor.

 

Additionally, for the purposes of a bubble argument, you could say that both ASM 300 and IH 181 are experiencing bubbles themselves...

 

Any comic worth anything is in a bubble right now. The current market is ridiculous.

 

If every comic is in a bubble then you agree with me (at least in part) and I am not even sure what you are arguing...

 

Wolverine is not the same as Venom. People collect IH 181 because of Wolverine, not because it is a Hulk book.

 

ASM 300 is collected because it is a Spidey book, because of McFarlane (to your point) and because of Venom. You could argue that Venom is a distant second these days, maybe even the third reason. Collecting Spidey villians is a hobby in itself, ASM 300 representing one of the more recent books featuring a large character.

 

People buy ASM 300 collecting and speculating on Spider-man.

[FineCollector]

Settle the Venom argument: for those of you with kids, what villain is on the t-shirts and backpacks? For many years, it's been Venom. If that's who kids grow up with, that's who they'll be nostalgic for.

[BarryAllen]

Based on data I have seen . . . there were about 200,000 in distribution

 

So, how many NM 98 copies survived their days in the dollar bins?

 

For the sake of argument let's assume the low end of 50,000, with an average value of say $350 - that would put the market cap at $17,500,000 (in reality this number is likely closer to $35,000,000).

 

Net, NM 98 is bubble poised to burst.

 

Your estimate of 50,000 copies is probably low. I was buying books off the rack in the late 80s and, although I stopped before NM98 hit the stands, I remember that it was one of the "hot" titles, one that everybody was bagging and boarding--like Howard the Duck before it, like X-Factor, like Cerebus the Aardvark (which never ran over 30,000 copies per month).

 

Not only are there very likely massive quantities still out there raw, there are very likely massive quantities in very high grades (9.8, 9.9, 10.0). 10 years from now a slabbed 9.8 will be a $30 book. Anything below 9.8 will have no value except as a reading copy.

 

I don't think it's a bubble that's going to "pop," though. It's more like a tire with a slow leak.

 

I have my misgivings about NM 98 as well, but it will NEVER be a $30 book in 9.8.

 

I would generally agree that it would be hard to believe that NM 98 will be a $30 book. However, eventually (like 99% of comics) it will be worthless.

 

I think people conveniently forget how many popular characters have come and gone over the years. Ones that were culturally far more impactful, popular and relatable by a larger audience than Deadpool. Examples like Howdy Doody, the Lone Ranger (even including the recent movie flop), the Phantom and I could go on (any character from Hanna-Barbera) come to mind.

 

I get that people think that Deadpool is awesome and people young and old love him. But it wouldn't be the first time something popular disappeared. If anything, it is far more likely to happen then not.

 

Edited January 1, 2015 by rfoiii

[Darkowl]

I'm actually kinda jealous that Deadpool is more popular than Silver Surfer...just say'n.

[Beige]

I'm in the 'bubble camp' for NM #98 - and bailed out of my only copy at a nosebleed price when the movie news hit.

 

I also agree TWD #1 is at or near it's peak. I have sold all my 5 copies in the last year (9.2 - 9.8)

 

I'm certain I will be able to replace NM #98 for significantly less than I sold it.

 

I'm confident I will get another TWD #1 9.8 for under $1000 eventually.

 

It's all about timing I guess - common books should be sold when hot, and bought when cold.

 

TWD #1 whilst not overabundant does have a hugely disproportionate % of 9.8/copies printed. The air will leak slowly, but it will still leak - out of 1724 Blue labels on the CGC census - 654 are 9.8 or BETTER.

 

Not everyone has deep pockets, and for some, a $2k book is the icing in their collecting cake. When prices go south, some of those people, fearing a loss will bail - adding to the fall. I feel it will settle between $750 - $1250.

 

Someone mentioned IH #181 - that is a bubble! Imagine if the industry did a U-Turn and decided #180 actually WAS the 1st Wolverine.

That's why I will never buy that book in HG.

 

as always.

[Darkowl]

I'm in the 'bubble camp' for NM #98 - and bailed out of my only copy at a nosebleed price when the movie news hit.

 

I also agree TWD #1 is at or near it's peak. I have sold all my 5 copies in the last year (9.2 - 9.8)

 

I'm certain I will be able to replace NM #98 for significantly less than I sold it.

 

I'm confident I will get another TWD #1 9.8 for under $1000 eventually.

 

It's all about timing I guess - common books should be sold when hot, and bought when cold.

 

TWD #1 whilst not overabundant does have a hugely disproportionate % of 9.8/copies printed. The air will leak slowly, but it will still leak - out of 1724 Blue labels on the CGC census - 654 are 9.8 or BETTER.

 

Not everyone has deep pockets, and for some, a $2k book is the icing in their collecting cake. When prices go south, some of those people, fearing a loss will bail - adding to the fall. I feel it will settle between $750 - $1250.

 

Someone mentioned IH #181 - that is a bubble! Imagine if the industry did a U-Turn and decided #180 actually WAS the 1st Wolverine.

That's why I will never buy that book in HG.

 

as always.

 

That's quite the imagination!