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When will the New Mutants 98 bubble burst?
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Started by BarryAllen,

1,121 posts in this topic

slym2none

slym2none

Posted
Posted (edited)
It still pains me to see that people think UH181 is Wolverine's first appearance.

 

:frustrated:

 

Not that the popularity is equivalent but superior spider-man showed up in 20, not 21 of DD. I don't know who decides these things.

 

Now, don't get me wrong - while I don't agree, I understand why 181 is more popular. Wolverine is on the cover. I don't get into discussions about that, though... but to see anyone still saying that 181 is his 1st appearance, I have to point out they are wrong. Yes, it has happened very recently in this thread.

 

;)

 

OK, / rantrant , I will stop hijacking this thread now.

 

 

-slym (remember kids - in this instance, "1st full appearance" still means "second appearance!")

Edited by slym2none
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romanheart

romanheart

Posted
Posted

Are we really in a bubble? Wouldn't the economy have to actually contract for two quarters before deciding they can get by with fewer comic books?

 

I'm surprised how well comic prices are doing and would love to see a downturn in prices but for now I just don't see it.

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1950's war comics

1950's war comics

Posted
Posted
Oh, you guys are right without a doubt. In my opinion it would have to be Doc Ock or Green Goblin because they both created extreme damage to him. One stole his true love and the other his life.

 

 

I think I am so partial to original Venom because that was my very first comic book and what got me into collecting. Hard to erase that nostalgia.

 

So true!

 

NEVER understand this logic of first comic nostalgia,,, me and all my buds bought comics from the spinner racks in the mid 70's and loved them , but always in the back of our minds back then we wished we could get our hands on the older stuff from the 60's and 50's , we heard stories of a buddies older brother who had these comics and we could only dream of ever getting one,... well now that we are adults we can afford to buy within reason those comics we could only dream about in our youth and not for a second do we long for or want to go back for nostalgia purposes and reacquire those we already had. , we want to get the comics that we could not get or afford as a youth.

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BarryAllen

BarryAllen

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Posted
Oh, you guys are right without a doubt. In my opinion it would have to be Doc Ock or Green Goblin because they both created extreme damage to him. One stole his true love and the other his life.

 

 

I think I am so partial to original Venom because that was my very first comic book and what got me into collecting. Hard to erase that nostalgia.

 

So true!

 

NEVER understand this logic of first comic nostalgia,,, me and all my buds bought comics from the spinner racks in the mid 70's and loved them , but always in the back of our minds back then we wished we could get our hands on the older stuff from the 60's and 50's , we heard stories of a buddies older brother who had these comics and we could only dream of ever getting one,... well now that we are adults we can afford to buy within reason those comics we could only dream about in our youth and not for a second do we long for or want to go back for nostalgia purposes and reacquire those we already had. , we want to get the comics that we could not get or afford as a youth.

 

Based on your grammar, dialogue and use of slang: I find it hard to believe you were a kid in the 70's...

 

Could be wrong.

 

:shrug:

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1950's war comics

1950's war comics

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Posted

NM 98 is the ugliest and most convoluted cover for an expensive key that I have ever seen , I wouldn't pay cover price for it other than the fact its worth more, same for BA12 ,..and.... I think even I can draw a cover as good as that one , good thing that even hideous cover art does not affect these two modern keys and help burst the bubble.

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Tony S

Tony S

Posted
Posted (edited)

 

Hopefully my response is as long winded as yours! :applause:

 

Without going back through the entirety of both of our posts, I think the major difference in our opinion is who is buying Walking Dead 1.

 

Existing readers and comic collectors cannot be the only ones purchasing the book, simply because the price is going up. In order for prices to increase, demand relative to supply needs to increase. This means people are buying that book that were not before - new people are entering the market.

 

It isn't possible for the same group of people to continually be buying and selling the book to one another for higher and higher prices - that simply wouldn't work.

 

Thank you for defining just what our main difference of opinion might be. I for one was not sure! With the focus now narrowed, this is easy:

 

I believe you approach the statement highlighted above from a perspective that does not consider how many existing comic book collectors there might be. You are right - in that it is not the same group of people continually purchasing the book from one another. It is rather - with the shows continuing success - an increasing number of existing comic book collectors deciding they would like to own the early/key issues. See what the excitement is about and not miss out of something big.

 

The problem is I cannot tell you - I don't know if any one can - just how many people there are that consider themselves "comic book collectors" But I believe it is likely a lot larger than you seem to think - and it's certainly many times larger than the print run of WD 1. Probably NM 98 for that matter.

 

Many years ago, it was popular to suggest that number of comic book collectors was some multiplier - anywhere from 10 to 50 - times larger than the Overstreet Comic Book Price Guide. The belief being - largely based on statements by LCS owners, that one out every xxx collectors that frequented their stores purchased a price guide. Now there are several bugs with that formula, not the least of which is Diamond doesn't say how many copies of the OPG they sell. They just say it sells well.

 

Last time I heard a circulation figure, it was about 40,000 copies - this before Diamond purchased them. Just 20x that number is closing in on a million. I also remember reading an article - I think by the owner of World's Finest Comics - that stated based on sales of the OPG that the number of comic book collectors world wide had to be closing in on the one million mark. I'm working from memory about an article (it was in his mail out catalog) over 20 years ago, but I think he said the OPG has sold like 80,000 copies and that was why he believed there had to be close to a million collectors.

 

Now not only is the current circulation of the OPG unknown, but other viable pricing sources exist. Online sales and auction venues create more places to purchase - there exist comic book collectors that rarely if ever visit a LCS.

 

Circulation numbers of current comic books are equally un-enlightening. Since traditional newstand distribution is uncommon, most comics printed - for most titles - probably are sold to collectors. BUT - vast numbers of comic book collectors do not or rarely read new comics. Myself included.

 

I've done mail order sales of collectible comics since 1978. The great majority of the collectors on my mailing list do not read new comics at all. Most of the few that do still purchase new comics purchase only a couple of titles out of habit. Its a handful - half dozen maybe - that are reading and collecting new stuff.

 

Attendance at comic conventions is way up, with new shows everywhere. NYCC supposedly drew 151,000 people this year. Of course we know lots of people attending the show don't collect comics. And we know most comic book collectors didn't go.

 

Perhaps one clue might be this. Diamond has 2600+ accounts that order from them. I think we can safely assume a LCS can't survive on 5, 10 or even 50 customers. The two here in Evansville are probably serving a base of 300-500 true comic collectors as well as a bunch of people into gaming that might by an occasional comic. And Diamond's accounts are nearly all brick and mortar stores selling new comics. There are all the online dealers, all the eBay dealers that service the vintage only, don't read new comics collector. And dealers in other countries that get their merchandise from somewhere besides Diamond.

 

I think it is possible there are a million comic book collectors world wide. But if there are only 1/2 that number, 1/4 that number - then it doesn't take but a small percentage of them adding a book to their want list to make prices jump. It's not a group of 10,000 people flipping books back and forth at each other.

 

 

Edited by Tony S
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BarryAllen

BarryAllen

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)

 

Hopefully my response is as long winded as yours! :applause:

 

Without going back through the entirety of both of our posts, I think the major difference in our opinion is who is buying Walking Dead 1.

 

Existing readers and comic collectors cannot be the only ones purchasing the book, simply because the price is going up. In order for prices to increase, demand relative to supply needs to increase. This means people are buying that book that were not before - new people are entering the market.

 

It isn't possible for the same group of people to continually be buying and selling the book to one another for higher and higher prices - that simply wouldn't work.

 

Thank you for defining just what our main difference of opinion might be. I for one was not sure! With the focus now narrowed, this is easy:

 

I believe you approach the statement highlighted above from a perspective that does not consider how many existing comic book collectors there might be. You are right - in that it is not the same group of people continually purchasing the book from one another. It is rather - with the shows continuing success - an increasing number of existing comic book collectors deciding they would like to own the early/key issues. See what the excitement is about and not miss out of something big.

 

The problem is I cannot tell you - I don't know if any one can - just how many people there are that consider themselves "comic book collectors" But I believe it is likely a lot larger than you seem to think - and it's certainly many times larger than the print run of WD 1. Probably NM 98 for that matter.

 

Many years ago, it was popular to suggest that number of comic book collectors was some multiplier - anywhere from 10 to 50 - times larger than the Overstreet Comic Book Price Guide. The belief being - largely based on statements by LCS owners, that one out every xxx collectors that frequented their stores purchased a price guide. Now there are several bugs with that formula, not the least of which is Diamond doesn't say how many copies of the OPG they sell. They just say it sells well.

 

Last time I heard a circulation figure, it was about 40,000 copies - this before Diamond purchased them. Just 20x that number is closing in on a million. I also remember reading an article - I think by the owner of World's Finest Comics - that stated based on sales of the OPG that the number of comic book collectors world wide had to be closing in on the one million mark. I'm working from memory about an article (it was in his mail out catalog) over 20 years ago, but I think he said the OPG has sold like 80,000 copies and that was why he believed there had to be close to a million collectors.

 

Now not only is the current circulation of the OPG unknown, but other viable pricing sources exist. Online sales and auction venues create more places to purchase - there exist comic book collectors that rarely if ever visit a LCS.

 

Circulation numbers of current comic books are equally un-enlightening. Since traditional newstand distribution is uncommon, most comics printed - for most titles - probably are sold to collectors. BUT - vast numbers of comic book collectors do not or rarely read new comics. Myself included.

 

I've done mail order sales of collectible comics since 1978. The great majority of the collectors on my mailing list do not read new comics at all. Most of the few that do still purchase new comics purchase only a couple of titles out of habit. Its a handful - half dozen maybe - that are reading and collecting new stuff.

 

Attendance at comic conventions is way up, with new shows everywhere. NYCC supposedly drew 151,000 people this year. Of course we know lots of people attending the show don't collect comics. And we know most comic book collectors didn't go.

 

Perhaps one clue might be this. Diamond has 2600+ accounts that order from them. I think we can safely assume a LCS can't survive on 5, 10 or even 50 customers. The two here in Evansville are probably serving a base of 300-500 true comic collectors as well as a bunch of people into gaming that might by an occasional comic. And Diamond's accounts are nearly all brick and mortar stores selling new comics. There are all the online dealers, all the eBay dealers that service the vintage only, don't read new comics collector. And dealers in other countries that get their merchandise from somewhere besides Diamond.

 

I think it is possible there are a million comic book collectors world wide. But if there are only 1/2 that number, 1/4 that number - then it doesn't take but a small percentage of them adding a book to their want list to make prices jump. It's not a group of 10,000 people flipping books back and forth at each other.

 

 

Ignoring the sarcasm to start, what you are asserting doesn't make sense from an economical standpoint. I think you are saying that just more of the already existing population of comic collectors are now interested in the book. That is far less plausible than the exposure of the show drawing new buyers (mostly speculators and "investors"). The only way the type of aggressive organic growth WD1 experienced is through new buyers entering the market. Otherwise the price would not have rapidly grown as the population of buyers (and thus the demand) did not. Without and influx of new purchasers, the price of something popular would only grow at rates slightly ahead of inflation and surely at a much less aggressive curve.

 

I appreciate the detail and thought you put into your argument, but that doesn't make it accurate. Your assertion is incorrect, more people are entering the market and buying WD 1. This is easily proved when you start perusing eBay sellers other items for sale and find a variety of things, but not more comics. Sure some sell comics, but just as many don't.

Edited by rfoiii
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Lazyboy

Lazyboy

Posted
Posted

 

Hopefully my response is as long winded as yours! :applause:

 

Without going back through the entirety of both of our posts, I think the major difference in our opinion is who is buying Walking Dead 1.

 

Existing readers and comic collectors cannot be the only ones purchasing the book, simply because the price is going up. In order for prices to increase, demand relative to supply needs to increase. This means people are buying that book that were not before - new people are entering the market.

 

It isn't possible for the same group of people to continually be buying and selling the book to one another for higher and higher prices - that simply wouldn't work.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory

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BarryAllen

BarryAllen

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)

 

Hopefully my response is as long winded as yours! :applause:

 

Without going back through the entirety of both of our posts, I think the major difference in our opinion is who is buying Walking Dead 1.

 

Existing readers and comic collectors cannot be the only ones purchasing the book, simply because the price is going up. In order for prices to increase, demand relative to supply needs to increase. This means people are buying that book that were not before - new people are entering the market.

 

It isn't possible for the same group of people to continually be buying and selling the book to one another for higher and higher prices - that simply wouldn't work.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory

 

Interesting. However the theory doesn't preclude new buyers from entering the market, it just states the the perception is that the item can always be sold at a higher price.

 

Not sure why this phenomena wouldn't include expansion of a buyer population?

 

EDIT: read the "Art" section of the Wikipedia entry and it's reference to new collectors. It seems this theory is in support of my argument - that new collectors are needed to grow the price rapidly (i.e. they possess the ignorance required to pay over-inflated prices, while existing collectors would not).

Edited by rfoiii
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CAHokie

CAHokie

Posted
Posted
Oh, you guys are right without a doubt. In my opinion it would have to be Doc Ock or Green Goblin because they both created extreme damage to him. One stole his true love and the other his life.

 

 

I think I am so partial to original Venom because that was my very first comic book and what got me into collecting. Hard to erase that nostalgia.

 

So true!

 

NEVER understand this logic of first comic nostalgia,,, me and all my buds bought comics from the spinner racks in the mid 70's and loved them , but always in the back of our minds back then we wished we could get our hands on the older stuff from the 60's and 50's , we heard stories of a buddies older brother who had these comics and we could only dream of ever getting one,... well now that we are adults we can afford to buy within reason those comics we could only dream about in our youth and not for a second do we long for or want to go back for nostalgia purposes and reacquire those we already had. , we want to get the comics that we could not get or afford as a youth.

 

Last time I checked, I wasn't trying to convince anyone of an opinion, so logic really doesn't come into play. I simply stated that I get nostalgic thinking back to comics as a kid. It doesn't really matter if no one else thinks that way.

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Vikingreed

Vikingreed

Posted
Posted (edited)

Something to add real quick....

My experience with WD TV show fans are that they buy or borrow the TPBs from people who are the collectors.

 

They don't do the monthly single issue, but are interested in the TPB story arcs.

 

These are about 10-15 people I know, but I am sure this situation exists everywhere.

 

This info doesn't pertain to any bubble theories, but just to show that the TV series has indeed brought in more comic readers, just in a different way.

Edited by vikingreed
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RockMyAmadeus

RockMyAmadeus

Posted
Posted

 

Still waiting for the data that show there are more copies of ASM #300 than NM #98...

 

:whistle:

http://www.comichron.com/titlespotlights/amazingspiderman.html

 

That's just the SOO. That doesn't show what I'm asking for.

 

Where's the data that show there are more copies of ASM #300 than NM #98...?

 

Here's some data:

 

Cap City orders:

 

ASM #300 - 42,900

 

NM #98 - 55,200

 

That is a substantial difference. Can we extrapolate? Yes. Yes, we can.

 

I'm sure you know that anniversary issues are always* higher than average.

 

Of course, and that's true, but it's only true relative to surrounding issues of the same title published at around the same time. There's over 3.5 years of time in between Spidey #300 and NM #98.

 

I hold you to a much higher standard than most of the shlubs around here, because you are quick to point out...and rightly so...errors in the information and suppositions of others.

 

:sumo:

 

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