When will the New Mutants 98 bubble burst? 1 1

[Beige]

Yup - the Internet would stop for a few seconds at least

[Darkowl]

[mintcollector]

I'm in the 'bubble camp' for NM #98 - and bailed out of my only copy at a nosebleed price when the movie news hit.

 

I also agree TWD #1 is at or near it's peak. I have sold all my 5 copies in the last year (9.2 - 9.8)

 

I'm certain I will be able to replace NM #98 for significantly less than I sold it.

 

I'm confident I will get another TWD #1 9.8 for under $1000 eventually.

 

It's all about timing I guess - common books should be sold when hot, and bought when cold.

 

TWD #1 whilst not overabundant does have a hugely disproportionate % of 9.8/copies printed. The air will leak slowly, but it will still leak - out of 1724 Blue labels on the CGC census - 654 are 9.8 or BETTER.

 

Not everyone has deep pockets, and for some, a $2k book is the icing in their collecting cake. When prices go south, some of those people, fearing a loss will bail - adding to the fall. I feel it will settle between $750 - $1250.

 

Someone mentioned IH #181 - that is a bubble! Imagine if the industry did a U-Turn and decided #180 actually WAS the 1st Wolverine.

That's why I will never buy that book in HG.

 

as always.

 

That's quite the imagination!

 

Actually I agree with most of what Beige said. While I don't think TWD #1 will end up below $1,000 anytime soon almost everything else he said was spot on. The thing about bubbles is that when you are in a bubble most people don't know you are in a bubble until it is too late.

 

Right now there are way too many 'newbies' coming in after seeing comic book prices continually rise. I will assure you that this will not last forever. Both the media and speculators like to focus on books that are going up and continue to break auction records. Ironically when these same or similar books fail to break new sales records or sell at a loss you never see media coverage devoted to them...thus the point I brought up earlier in this thread.

[ChrisInBaltimore]

Settle the Venom argument: for those of you with kids, what villain is on the t-shirts and backpacks? For many years, it's been Venom. If that's who kids grow up with, that's who they'll be nostalgic for.

 

My son has TONS of the Spider-Man merchandising for children. While Venom is on some stuff, Green Goblin is on a vast majority as well.

 

I think a big problem with Venom now is that he isn't synonymous with Eddie Brock anymore. My kids and even my sister's kids watch Ultimate Spider-Man. Eddie isn't on that show at all. Norman creates Venom, from what I've seen.

[Darkowl]

I'm in the 'bubble camp' for NM #98 - and bailed out of my only copy at a nosebleed price when the movie news hit.

 

I also agree TWD #1 is at or near it's peak. I have sold all my 5 copies in the last year (9.2 - 9.8)

 

I'm certain I will be able to replace NM #98 for significantly less than I sold it.

 

I'm confident I will get another TWD #1 9.8 for under $1000 eventually.

 

It's all about timing I guess - common books should be sold when hot, and bought when cold.

 

TWD #1 whilst not overabundant does have a hugely disproportionate % of 9.8/copies printed. The air will leak slowly, but it will still leak - out of 1724 Blue labels on the CGC census - 654 are 9.8 or BETTER.

 

Not everyone has deep pockets, and for some, a $2k book is the icing in their collecting cake. When prices go south, some of those people, fearing a loss will bail - adding to the fall. I feel it will settle between $750 - $1250.

 

Someone mentioned IH #181 - that is a bubble! Imagine if the industry did a U-Turn and decided #180 actually WAS the 1st Wolverine.

That's why I will never buy that book in HG.

 

as always.

 

That's quite the imagination!

 

Actually I agree with most of what Beige said. While I don't think TWD #1 will end up below $1,000 anytime soon almost everything else he said was spot on. The thing about bubbles is that when you are in a bubble most people don't know you are in a bubble until it is too late.

 

Right now there are way too many 'newbies' coming in after seeing comic book prices continually rise. I will assure you that this will not last forever. Both the media and speculators like to focus on books that are going up and continue to break auction records. Ironically when these same or similar books fail to break new sales records or sell at a loss you never see media coverage devoted to them...thus the point I brought up earlier in this thread.

 

via Imgflip Meme Maker

[retrothecollector]

I'm actually kinda jealous that Deadpool is more popular than Silver Surfer...just say'n.

Me too. DP sucks

[Jaydogrules]

All this talk of "bubbles" and no one has mentioned the currently worst offender of all? Batman Adventures 12 . The fantastically overpriced kiddie book, adapted from and based on a TV cartoon that contains the "first appearance" of a cartoon character but only in comic book form, in a vacuum outside of said character's current incarnation in story continuity.

 

That....AND it is now also a movie hyped book with prices currently EXCEEDING both ASM 300 "and" NM 98, which are both actual first appearance books and by noted artists of their day.

 

Bubble bubble toil and trouble....

 

-J.

[mintcollector]

All this talk of "bubbles" and no one has mentioned the currently worst offender of all? Batman Adventures 12. The fantastically overpriced kiddie book, adapted from and based on a TV cartoon that contains the "first appearance" of a cartoon character but only in comic book form, in a vacuum outside of said character's current incarnation in story continuity.

 

That....AND it is now also a movie hyped book with prices currently EXCEEDING both ASM 300 "and" NM 98, which are both actual first appearance books and by noted artists of their day.

 

Bubble bubble toil and trouble....

 

-J.

 

Reason being this thread is supposed to be about NM 98 and only NM 98. In your defense are other books like TWD 1 and ASM 300 being brought up? Yes, they are.

 

 

[Tony S]

(Posted this argument in a different thread, but thought it would make more sense here.)

 

 

Based on data I have seen (confirmed in theory by RMA) there were around 300,000 copies of NM 98 produced and after around 100,000 of returns there were about 200,000 in distribution

 

So, how many NM 98 copies survived their days in the dollar bins? 100,000? 75,000? 50,000?

 

For the sake of argument let's assume the low end of 50,000, with an average value of say $350 - that would put the market cap at $17,500,000 (in reality this number is likely closer to $35,000,000).

 

Compare that to a Walking Dead 1 assuming 6,000 survived (of the roughly 7,300 produced) with an average value of say $1,000 - the market cap would be $6,000,000.

 

While Deadpool is very popular, he is not anywhere near the popularity of the Walking Dead. The last two years WD 1 is selling fairly steadily around $2,000ish (GPA) with a show at the height of its popularity (so far) and enough merchandise for every kid in America to own at least 2 action figures and a lunch box. Additionally, take into account that it is also a genre and therefore appeals to a much broader audience versus a singular character. This leads me to believe that a pop-culture major player like this sustains around a $6,000,000 market cap on its key first comic issue.

 

Given that the show has reached far more viewers than a Deadpool movie ever will, I find it hard to believe that NM 98 (a book in far more supply) can sustain almost triple the market cap; even with a hit movie. There just aren't enough hardcore Deadpool fans with that kind of cash needed to keep up the demand required to sustain a market cap that large.

 

It is clearly inflated right now by the movie news due to speculators and a large number of dealers/hoarders releasing a high grade copy or two at a time to maximize profits on the full short-boxes they have of the title (FYI - I have seen more than a few of these boxes at LCS, dealers and hoarders stock).

 

Net, NM 98 is bubble poised to burst.

 

 

 

 

*Please note for the purposes of this argument I assumed that the WD 1 current value is not experiencing a bubble itself. I do not believe this, but thought it would be fun to create an argument from that basis. Its the internet, so yeah, cool.

 

An interesting post, but there are some "facts" in this post that I don't believe can be proved to be true and might be false.

 

You are no doubt correct that there are far more copies of NM 98 than Walking Dead 1,We don't actually know how many copies of WD 1 there might be. We know Diamond estimated 7,266 copies were shipped to North American retailers. Walking Dead creators have always been tight lipped about how many copies were printed. For all we know Kirkman has half a dozen long boxes stuffed full in his living room. If the print run on WD 1 corresponds with the Diamond figures, then it is interesting to note that 29% of the total printed copies have been slabbed by CGC and figure still more have been slabbed by a few other grading companies whose names shall not be mentioned.

 

You are most likely wrong about the audience size of a Deadpool movie versus the Walking Dead TV show. Walking Dead is a very popular TV show. T V Show. This past season was it's most viewed yet. averaging close to 15 million viewers. A successful superhero type movies - say Iron Man 2 or Batman Returns sells 40 million tickets. Widely successful ones do 2x that number. Look up all time box office adjusted for ticket price. Gone With the Wind is number 1, have sold over 200 million tickets.

 

A Deadpool movie in wide theater release is going to reach more people that the WD TV show.

 

Last point: WD comic averages sales of what, 70,000 copies a month? It is consistently in the top 20 of comic book sales, sometimes top 10 (it was #14 in November) I think it's been #1 at least once with a special and a gazillion different covers. All of this with a TV show that's been running 5 years and has a viewership of 15 million. The comic and the TV show reach completely different audiences. There is NOT - I will swear to my dying breath - ANY meaningful cross over of people watching the show buying the comic. If there was - if only one in 100 people watching the show were buying the comic, the monthly sales of WD would triple. We'd be seeing sales of 200,000 + copies a month. We haven't yet, we aren't going to.

 

Of course the same is pretty much true for movies as well. Any bump in comic sales is small and according to comic store owners just existing collectors adding a title, not people off the street.

 

My point being that comic book collectors decide what books are worth. TV, movies - that's all good. But the value of the books the TV shows and movies are based on is still being determined by collectors. EXISTING collectors. Not new ones brought in by the movies and TV shows.

 

First of all thank you for taking the time to read my post and write a reply. I appreciate you taking time to discuss the topic and defend your personal position. Now on to the discussion:

 

 

No offense, but common sense and the internet can easily prove all the facts in my argument are solid. Making statements that they may be false is not a valid argument, Walking Dead is far more popular than Deapool from both a comic perspective and a pop culture perspective - there is no disputing this (see elaboration with data below).

 

No offence taken. <3 I never said one was more popular than another. WD has a TV show so it's current pop culture stature is certainly larger, the WD franchise/brand better known. Probably more than one way to measure popularity of a character among comic book collectors. But honestly IDK. The relative popularity of the characters wasn't part of my post

 

Of course there is a meaningful connection between the show and the comic book with Walking Dead (and Deadpool for that matter). Without the show, the comic wouldn't be worth near what it is. Arguing otherwise is akin to saying that the Deadpool movie announcement has nothing to do with the rise in price of NM 98 (again there is a direct provable correlation with timing). While I appreciate your passion, your statement is patently false. A large number of people buying either these books are not the comic readers, they are speculating on the value based on the popularity driven by all forms of media (which is why especially in the case of Deadpool, the book sky-rocketed in value overnight). Even if you don't believe that - sales are driven by marketing and both physical and mental availability - which means that all forms of communication drive awareness (comics, action figures, shows, stickers, magazines, etc are all connected). Comic readers and owners don't set comic prices, the entire market sets prices.

 

Without the show the comic wouldn't be worth near as much as it is. I agree. It would worth less. Worth less without TV show or worth more with TV - doesn't change what I said. It is EXISTING comic book collectors that are setting the value based on what they are willing to pay. There are no meaningful number of people that watch the show, see "Talking Dead" afterwards and say "gee, that is so cool. It's based on the comic. I think I will go visit my LCS and drop 5K on the first few issues. They are ALL EXISTING comic book collectors. You also appear to be trying to differentiate between the comic book readers and the those just speculating. Some might be doing both and I don't know how you might decide what the % break down is - or why it matters. At least they BUY the comic book. That more than the 15 million people watching the show do. Your entire paragraph above appears to be constructing a straw man just to kick it down.

 

Now let's talk your movie example reaching more people than a show that has been around for 5 years and reaches 15 million people on average per episode and climbed past 22 million for the season 5 premiere.

 

Sorry, I couldn't get that post to "quote right" Most of what you say about the actor and the complexity of the character and it's unlikelihood of being a hit movie is speculation on your part. We'll know who the movie does when it comes out. As for reach, comparing TV (the small screen) to movies (the big screen) sorta misses the point. Actors aspire for the big screen for a reason.

 

Lastly let's talk the comics themselves, just taking the "mainstream title:" the November 2014 comic sales of Walking Dead was 70,000 and Deadpool with 51,000. October 2014 had 69,000 for Walking Dead and 46,000 for Deadpool. September had 69,000 for Walking Dead and 58,000 for Deadpool. Walking Dead sells more comics on a monthly basis than Deadpool. ( another linky link with fictious data )

 

Yes, I agree. But WD would sell far, far more if even a tiny percentage of the TV audience took an interest in the comics.

 

No matter how you slice it, Walking Dead is far more popular than Deadpool. With that popularity is a correlation to a proven larger sizable fan base which gives the ability to sustain larger purchasing power or in this instance a market cap on the key first appearance in comic. Given that the current market cap on Deadpool is at least double the size of the Walking Dead market cap; economically speaking, it is fairly easy to correlate that to a bubble.

 

IMHO, both books are in bubbles, WD is just likely to take a lot longer to lose value. Like others that have commented, I'm not buying the market cap being any proof of said bubble. The formula for market cap as commonly used in the stock market is just the total number of shares multiplied by current stock price. In the case of comic books if you tried to apply market cap, you first have to know how many copies their are. Something you know for sure about stocks, nothing but a guess on comics. Plus companies that issue stocks do all sorts of stuff to affect their stock price. Buy backs, splits, issue new stock. None of things would seem to have comparable actions in comics. So it looks like a false analogy.

 

I like Deadpool too, but there just aren't enough people being reached on a regular basis to sustain the kind of demand required to maintain the current pricing. The point isn't that all the people watching the show buy the comic book (that would be silly), the point is that it takes everything that Walking Dead is about in market to sustain the price of the #1 issue (this is the same for Spiderman, Superman, Batman, Deadpool, etc). Its math.

 

You like Deadpool - but you can leave the "too" off. I don't much care for the Deadpool and sincerely dislike the WD - TV and comics. I only watch the WD show to bond with my wife and daughter (who love it). My interest is rather narrow - just the value and the possible bubble. As for "it takes everything that Walking Dead is about" to sustain the price - we agree. But that price is being sustained by existing comic collectors. It's not about a silly idea of everyone watching the show buying the book. ALMOST NO ONE watching the show buys the comic book. Not even 1%. Not even one half of one %. The show has huge impact on the value of the book. But that the book should be worth more because of the show is solely in the mind of the existing comic book collectors. People watching the show don't give a toot what the comic is about or worth

 

Thank you for the continued discussion, I apologize for the long-winded response. This is fun.

 

Hopefully my response is as long winded as yours!

Edited January 2, 2015 by Tony S

[Jaydogrules]

All this talk of "bubbles" and no one has mentioned the currently worst offender of all? Batman Adventures 12 . The fantastically overpriced kiddie book, adapted from and based on a TV cartoon that contains the "first appearance" of a cartoon character but only in comic book form, in a vacuum outside of said character's current incarnation in story continuity.

 

That....AND it is now also a movie hyped book with prices currently EXCEEDING both ASM 300 "and" NM 98, which are both actual first appearance books and by noted artists of their day.

 

Bubble bubble toil and trouble....

 

-J.

 

Reason being this thread is supposed to be about NM 98 and only NM 98. In your defense are other books like TWD 1 and ASM 300 being brought up? Yes, they are.

 

 

Right. So then I am properly wondering why that book has not been a part of the conversation for comparative purposes. When it is the frothiest of all examples. (thumbs u

 

-J.

[BarryAllen]

 

Hopefully my response is as long winded as yours!

 

Without going back through the entirety of both of our posts, I think the major difference in our opinion is who is buying Walking Dead 1.

 

Existing readers and comic collectors cannot be the only ones purchasing the book, simply because the price is going up. In order for prices to increase, demand relative to supply needs to increase. This means people are buying that book that were not before - new people are entering the market.

 

It isn't possible for the same group of people to continually be buying and selling the book to one another for higher and higher prices - that simply wouldn't work.

Edited January 2, 2015 by rfoiii

[mintcollector]

All this talk of "bubbles" and no one has mentioned the currently worst offender of all? Batman Adventures 12 . The fantastically overpriced kiddie book, adapted from and based on a TV cartoon that contains the "first appearance" of a cartoon character but only in comic book form, in a vacuum outside of said character's current incarnation in story continuity.

 

That....AND it is now also a movie hyped book with prices currently EXCEEDING both ASM 300 "and" NM 98, which are both actual first appearance books and by noted artists of their day.

 

Bubble bubble toil and trouble....

 

-J.

 

Reason being this thread is supposed to be about NM 98 and only NM 98. In your defense are other books like TWD 1 and ASM 300 being brought up? Yes, they are.

 

 

Right. So then I am properly wondering why that book has not been a part of the conversation for comparative purposes. When it is the frothiest of all examples. (thumbs u

 

-J.

 

And now all you have to do is get one more person to respond to your inquiry and carry on a conversation about that said comic and you will have succeeded in your goal. (thumbs u

[BarryAllen]

All this talk of "bubbles" and no one has mentioned the currently worst offender of all? Batman Adventures 12 . The fantastically overpriced kiddie book, adapted from and based on a TV cartoon that contains the "first appearance" of a cartoon character but only in comic book form, in a vacuum outside of said character's current incarnation in story continuity.

 

That....AND it is now also a movie hyped book with prices currently EXCEEDING both ASM 300 "and" NM 98, which are both actual first appearance books and by noted artists of their day.

 

Bubble bubble toil and trouble....

 

-J.

 

Reason being this thread is supposed to be about NM 98 and only NM 98. In your defense are other books like TWD 1 and ASM 300 being brought up? Yes, they are.

 

 

Right. So then I am properly wondering why that book has not been a part of the conversation for comparative purposes. When it is the frothiest of all examples. (thumbs u

 

-J.

 

And now all you have to do is get one more person to respond to your inquiry and carry on a conversation about that said comic and you will have succeeded in your goal. (thumbs u

 

Not sure why there isn't a thread on BA 12 bubble bursting... Probably should be!

 

[Jaydogrules]

All this talk of "bubbles" and no one has mentioned the currently worst offender of all? Batman Adventures 12 . The fantastically overpriced kiddie book, adapted from and based on a TV cartoon that contains the "first appearance" of a cartoon character but only in comic book form, in a vacuum outside of said character's current incarnation in story continuity.

 

That....AND it is now also a movie hyped book with prices currently EXCEEDING both ASM 300 "and" NM 98, which are both actual first appearance books and by noted artists of their day.

 

Bubble bubble toil and trouble....

 

-J.

 

Reason being this thread is supposed to be about NM 98 and only NM 98. In your defense are other books like TWD 1 and ASM 300 being brought up? Yes, they are.

 

 

Right. So then I am properly wondering why that book has not been a part of the conversation for comparative purposes. When it is the frothiest of all examples. (thumbs u

 

-J.

 

And now all you have to do is get one more person to respond to your inquiry and carry on a conversation about that said comic and you will have succeeded in your goal. (thumbs u

 

Not sure why there isn't a thread on BA 12 bubble bursting... Probably should be!

 

 

Great minds think alike.

 

-J.

[mintcollector]

All this talk of "bubbles" and no one has mentioned the currently worst offender of all? Batman Adventures 12 . The fantastically overpriced kiddie book, adapted from and based on a TV cartoon that contains the "first appearance" of a cartoon character but only in comic book form, in a vacuum outside of said character's current incarnation in story continuity.

 

That....AND it is now also a movie hyped book with prices currently EXCEEDING both ASM 300 "and" NM 98, which are both actual first appearance books and by noted artists of their day.

 

Bubble bubble toil and trouble....

 

-J.

 

Reason being this thread is supposed to be about NM 98 and only NM 98. In your defense are other books like TWD 1 and ASM 300 being brought up? Yes, they are.

 

 

Right. So then I am properly wondering why that book has not been a part of the conversation for comparative purposes. When it is the frothiest of all examples. (thumbs u

 

-J.

 

And now all you have to do is get one more person to respond to your inquiry and carry on a conversation about that said comic and you will have succeeded in your goal. (thumbs u

 

Not sure why there isn't a thread on BA 12 bubble bursting... Probably should be!

 

 

Tell JayDog. I am sure he would love to start it!

 

JayDog; there you go. Looks like you will also have some worthy participants as well.

 

 

[FineCollector]

All this talk of "bubbles" and no one has mentioned the currently worst offender of all? Batman Adventures 12 . The fantastically overpriced kiddie book, adapted from and based on a TV cartoon that contains the "first appearance" of a cartoon character but only in comic book form, in a vacuum outside of said character's current incarnation in story continuity.

 

Continuity? You think people are actually reading these books? That's sweet!

 

The fact that it's a kiddie book means that no one took care of it. What does the census on BA 12 look like compared to Deadpool and Venom? I wouldn't buy any of them right now, but BA 12 has the most justification for its current price.

[slym2none]

It still pains me to see that people think UH181 is Wolverine's first appearance.

 

 

 

 

-slym

[romanheart]

It still pains me to see that people think UH181 is Wolverine's first appearance.

 

 

 

 

-slym

 

Not that the popularity is equivalent but superior spider-man showed up in 20, not 21 of DD. I don't know who decides these things.

[mintcollector]

All this talk of "bubbles" and no one has mentioned the currently worst offender of all? Batman Adventures 12 . The fantastically overpriced kiddie book, adapted from and based on a TV cartoon that contains the "first appearance" of a cartoon character but only in comic book form, in a vacuum outside of said character's current incarnation in story continuity.

 

Continuity? You think people are actually reading these books? That's sweet!

 

The fact that it's a kiddie book means that no one took care of it. What does the census on BA 12 look like compared to Deadpool and Venom? I wouldn't buy any of them right now, but BA 12 has the most justification for its current price.

 

900 in Universal Grade with 247 books in 9.8 and 278 in 9.6. That is more than half in 9.6 or above. As such one cannot assume that this book was not taken care of...even if grading does tend to sway towards books in better condition overall.

[Jaydogrules]

All this talk of "bubbles" and no one has mentioned the currently worst offender of all? Batman Adventures 12 . The fantastically overpriced kiddie book, adapted from and based on a TV cartoon that contains the "first appearance" of a cartoon character but only in comic book form, in a vacuum outside of said character's current incarnation in story continuity.

 

Continuity? You think people are actually reading these books? That's sweet!

 

The fact that it's a kiddie book means that no one took care of it What does the census on BA 12 look like compared to Deadpool and Venom? I wouldn't buy any of them right now, but BA 12 has the most justification for its current price.

 

Yes, that was the line first spoon fed to the sheeple when the book first started to pop, but has long since been de-bunked.

 

Of the three books BA 12 actually has the highest percentage of 9.8+ pull through (not counting green or purple labels) at 27.5% NM 98, has 27.47%, and ASM 300 has a paltry 7.1%.

 

That, and ASM 300 and NM 98 have the benefit of actually being the first (full) appearances of their respective characters and within actual comic book continuity and not some other external medium. (thumbs u

 

-J.