When will the New Mutants 98 bubble burst? 1 1

[CAHokie]

Extrapolation

[FineCollector]

A question I'm struggling with... the increase in price on these modern keys is attributed to the influx of new buyers. How many new buyers are willing to drop $1000 on a comic in their early collecting years? I'm a cheapskate, I still don't like spending $1000 on a book, but these new, young buyers are reportedly tossing big bucks around.

 

To the dealers: how long do you have to nurture a new customer before he's confident enough to spend 4-bills on one of your books? Do you have any customers you met as a kid who are now big spenders?

[Tony S]

 

Hopefully my response is as long winded as yours!

 

Without going back through the entirety of both of our posts, I think the major difference in our opinion is who is buying Walking Dead 1.

 

Existing readers and comic collectors cannot be the only ones purchasing the book, simply because the price is going up. In order for prices to increase, demand relative to supply needs to increase. This means people are buying that book that were not before - new people are entering the market.

 

It isn't possible for the same group of people to continually be buying and selling the book to one another for higher and higher prices - that simply wouldn't work.

 

Thank you for defining just what our main difference of opinion might be. I for one was not sure! With the focus now narrowed, this is easy:

 

I believe you approach the statement highlighted above from a perspective that does not consider how many existing comic book collectors there might be. You are right - in that it is not the same group of people continually purchasing the book from one another. It is rather - with the shows continuing success - an increasing number of existing comic book collectors deciding they would like to own the early/key issues. See what the excitement is about and not miss out of something big.

 

The problem is I cannot tell you - I don't know if any one can - just how many people there are that consider themselves "comic book collectors" But I believe it is likely a lot larger than you seem to think - and it's certainly many times larger than the print run of WD 1. Probably NM 98 for that matter.

 

Many years ago, it was popular to suggest that number of comic book collectors was some multiplier - anywhere from 10 to 50 - times larger than the Overstreet Comic Book Price Guide. The belief being - largely based on statements by LCS owners, that one out every xxx collectors that frequented their stores purchased a price guide. Now there are several bugs with that formula, not the least of which is Diamond doesn't say how many copies of the OPG they sell. They just say it sells well.

 

Last time I heard a circulation figure, it was about 40,000 copies - this before Diamond purchased them. Just 20x that number is closing in on a million. I also remember reading an article - I think by the owner of World's Finest Comics - that stated based on sales of the OPG that the number of comic book collectors world wide had to be closing in on the one million mark. I'm working from memory about an article (it was in his mail out catalog) over 20 years ago, but I think he said the OPG has sold like 80,000 copies and that was why he believed there had to be close to a million collectors.

 

Now not only is the current circulation of the OPG unknown, but other viable pricing sources exist. Online sales and auction venues create more places to purchase - there exist comic book collectors that rarely if ever visit a LCS.

 

Circulation numbers of current comic books are equally un-enlightening. Since traditional newstand distribution is uncommon, most comics printed - for most titles - probably are sold to collectors. BUT - vast numbers of comic book collectors do not or rarely read new comics. Myself included.

 

I've done mail order sales of collectible comics since 1978. The great majority of the collectors on my mailing list do not read new comics at all. Most of the few that do still purchase new comics purchase only a couple of titles out of habit. Its a handful - half dozen maybe - that are reading and collecting new stuff.

 

Attendance at comic conventions is way up, with new shows everywhere. NYCC supposedly drew 151,000 people this year. Of course we know lots of people attending the show don't collect comics. And we know most comic book collectors didn't go.

 

Perhaps one clue might be this. Diamond has 2600+ accounts that order from them. I think we can safely assume a LCS can't survive on 5, 10 or even 50 customers. The two here in Evansville are probably serving a base of 300-500 true comic collectors as well as a bunch of people into gaming that might by an occasional comic. And Diamond's accounts are nearly all brick and mortar stores selling new comics. There are all the online dealers, all the eBay dealers that service the vintage only, don't read new comics collector. And dealers in other countries that get their merchandise from somewhere besides Diamond.

 

I think it is possible there are a million comic book collectors world wide. But if there are only 1/2 that number, 1/4 that number - then it doesn't take but a small percentage of them adding a book to their want list to make prices jump. It's not a group of 10,000 people flipping books back and forth at each other.

 

 

Ignoring the sarcasm to start, what you are asserting doesn't make sense from an economical standpoint. I think you are saying that just more of the already existing population of comic collectors are now interested in the book. That is far less plausible than the exposure of the show drawing new buyers (mostly speculators and "investors"). The only way the type of aggressive organic growth WD1 experienced is through new buyers entering the market. Otherwise the price would not have rapidly grown as the population of buyers (and thus the demand) did not. Without and influx of new purchasers, the price of something popular would only grow at rates slightly ahead of inflation and surely at a much less aggressive curve.

 

I appreciate the detail and thought you put into your argument, but that doesn't make it accurate. Your assertion is incorrect, more people are entering the market and buying WD 1. This is easily proved when you start perusing eBay sellers other items for sale and find a variety of things, but not more comics. Sure some sell comics, but just as many don't.

 

I meant no sarcasm. Earlier, I was not for certain what our core disagreement was. We seemed to actually agree on many points but still disagree.

 

Just saying I am wrong doesn't make it so. My explanation is just as likely as yours. I believe much more likely based easy observation. More collectors - existing collectors - are adding WD 1, NM 98 to their want list. Books like NM 98, along with other movie/TV pumped books like FF 44-46, 52, Avengers 181 Ms Marvel 1 - Detective 474 , Inhumans 1 (on and on) are proof of what I'm saying. All of these books have spiked upwards in price and the general public doesn't know anything about them. It is comic book collectors that hear about a Deadpool movie, a Black Panther movie, an Antman movie, an Inhumans movie or Deadshot being in the Suicide Squad movie - all projects years in the future - that add these books to their want list and propel the prices skyward.

 

I've been a comic book dealer since 1978. Avengers 28, Detective 474, Avengers 181, Thor 165 & 166, Captain Marvel 18, Marvel Super Heroes 13 and 18, Inhumans 1. Just name a planned or even rumored movie/TV show. These books sat around in catalog after catalog for years, occasionally selling. Then a movie gets announced and everyone wants them. They aren't new collectors. It's the same collectors. Collectors that did not want the books UNTIL they read about the movie/TV show being planned. Walking Dead's only difference is it's been a successful TV show for a while. The comic book sales still draw from comic book collectors.

 

The only plausible reason I can see that "bubbl'ish" market prices would not be simple herd mentality of many people seeking the same book at the same time is if the herd is vastly smaller than I think. So let's redirect. How many comic book collectors do you think there are in the world?

 

While considering that number, I suggest giving thought to things like: How does CGC and competitors stay in business servicing say 10,000 collectors? How do 2600 comic book stores in the US stay in business ? How does eBay support a selling market place that routinely has around 3 million comic books for sale?

 

The answer has to be that there are lot of people that collect comic books. Not a lot like 5,000 or 10,000 or even 200,000. A lot like pushing a million. And those collectors add and delete things from their want lists all the time. Often times at the same time.

[BarryAllen]

 

Hopefully my response is as long winded as yours!

 

Without going back through the entirety of both of our posts, I think the major difference in our opinion is who is buying Walking Dead 1.

 

Existing readers and comic collectors cannot be the only ones purchasing the book, simply because the price is going up. In order for prices to increase, demand relative to supply needs to increase. This means people are buying that book that were not before - new people are entering the market.

 

It isn't possible for the same group of people to continually be buying and selling the book to one another for higher and higher prices - that simply wouldn't work.

 

Thank you for defining just what our main difference of opinion might be. I for one was not sure! With the focus now narrowed, this is easy:

 

I believe you approach the statement highlighted above from a perspective that does not consider how many existing comic book collectors there might be. You are right - in that it is not the same group of people continually purchasing the book from one another. It is rather - with the shows continuing success - an increasing number of existing comic book collectors deciding they would like to own the early/key issues. See what the excitement is about and not miss out of something big.

 

The problem is I cannot tell you - I don't know if any one can - just how many people there are that consider themselves "comic book collectors" But I believe it is likely a lot larger than you seem to think - and it's certainly many times larger than the print run of WD 1. Probably NM 98 for that matter.

 

Many years ago, it was popular to suggest that number of comic book collectors was some multiplier - anywhere from 10 to 50 - times larger than the Overstreet Comic Book Price Guide. The belief being - largely based on statements by LCS owners, that one out every xxx collectors that frequented their stores purchased a price guide. Now there are several bugs with that formula, not the least of which is Diamond doesn't say how many copies of the OPG they sell. They just say it sells well.

 

Last time I heard a circulation figure, it was about 40,000 copies - this before Diamond purchased them. Just 20x that number is closing in on a million. I also remember reading an article - I think by the owner of World's Finest Comics - that stated based on sales of the OPG that the number of comic book collectors world wide had to be closing in on the one million mark. I'm working from memory about an article (it was in his mail out catalog) over 20 years ago, but I think he said the OPG has sold like 80,000 copies and that was why he believed there had to be close to a million collectors.

 

Now not only is the current circulation of the OPG unknown, but other viable pricing sources exist. Online sales and auction venues create more places to purchase - there exist comic book collectors that rarely if ever visit a LCS.

 

Circulation numbers of current comic books are equally un-enlightening. Since traditional newstand distribution is uncommon, most comics printed - for most titles - probably are sold to collectors. BUT - vast numbers of comic book collectors do not or rarely read new comics. Myself included.

 

I've done mail order sales of collectible comics since 1978. The great majority of the collectors on my mailing list do not read new comics at all. Most of the few that do still purchase new comics purchase only a couple of titles out of habit. Its a handful - half dozen maybe - that are reading and collecting new stuff.

 

Attendance at comic conventions is way up, with new shows everywhere. NYCC supposedly drew 151,000 people this year. Of course we know lots of people attending the show don't collect comics. And we know most comic book collectors didn't go.

 

Perhaps one clue might be this. Diamond has 2600+ accounts that order from them. I think we can safely assume a LCS can't survive on 5, 10 or even 50 customers. The two here in Evansville are probably serving a base of 300-500 true comic collectors as well as a bunch of people into gaming that might by an occasional comic. And Diamond's accounts are nearly all brick and mortar stores selling new comics. There are all the online dealers, all the eBay dealers that service the vintage only, don't read new comics collector. And dealers in other countries that get their merchandise from somewhere besides Diamond.

 

I think it is possible there are a million comic book collectors world wide. But if there are only 1/2 that number, 1/4 that number - then it doesn't take but a small percentage of them adding a book to their want list to make prices jump. It's not a group of 10,000 people flipping books back and forth at each other.

 

 

Ignoring the sarcasm to start, what you are asserting doesn't make sense from an economical standpoint. I think you are saying that just more of the already existing population of comic collectors are now interested in the book. That is far less plausible than the exposure of the show drawing new buyers (mostly speculators and "investors"). The only way the type of aggressive organic growth WD1 experienced is through new buyers entering the market. Otherwise the price would not have rapidly grown as the population of buyers (and thus the demand) did not. Without and influx of new purchasers, the price of something popular would only grow at rates slightly ahead of inflation and surely at a much less aggressive curve.

 

I appreciate the detail and thought you put into your argument, but that doesn't make it accurate. Your assertion is incorrect, more people are entering the market and buying WD 1. This is easily proved when you start perusing eBay sellers other items for sale and find a variety of things, but not more comics. Sure some sell comics, but just as many don't.

 

I meant no sarcasm. Earlier, I was not for certain what our core disagreement was. We seemed to actually agree on many points but still disagree.

 

Just saying I am wrong doesn't make it so. My explanation is just as likely as yours. I believe much more likely based easy observation. More collectors - existing collectors - are adding WD 1, NM 98 to their want list. Books like NM 98, along with other movie/TV pumped books like FF 44-46, 52, Avengers 181 Ms Marvel 1 - Detective 474 , Inhumans 1 (on and on) are proof of what I'm saying. All of these books have spiked upwards in price and the general public doesn't know anything about them. It is comic book collectors that hear about a Deadpool movie, a Black Panther movie, an Antman movie, an Inhumans movie or Deadshot being in the Suicide Squad movie - all projects years in the future - that add these books to their want list and propel the prices skyward.

 

I've been a comic book dealer since 1978. Avengers 28, Detective 474, Avengers 181, Thor 165 & 166, Captain Marvel 18, Marvel Super Heroes 13 and 18, Inhumans 1. Just name a planned or even rumored movie/TV show. These books sat around in catalog after catalog for years, occasionally selling. Then a movie gets announced and everyone wants them. They aren't new collectors. It's the same collectors. Collectors that did not want the books UNTIL they read about the movie/TV show being planned. Walking Dead's only difference is it's been a successful TV show for a while. The comic book sales still draw from comic book collectors.

 

The only plausible reason I can see that "bubbl'ish" market prices would not be simple herd mentality of many people seeking the same book at the same time is if the herd is vastly smaller than I think. So let's redirect. How many comic book collectors do you think there are in the world?

 

While considering that number, I suggest giving thought to things like: How does CGC and competitors stay in business servicing say 10,000 collectors? How do 2600 comic book stores in the US stay in business ? How does eBay support a selling market place that routinely has around 3 million comic books for sale?

 

The answer has to be that there are lot of people that collect comic books. Not a lot like 5,000 or 10,000 or even 200,000. A lot like pushing a million. And those collectors add and delete things from their want lists all the time. Often times at the same time.

 

You are right, there are a lot of comic reads/collectors. Not quite sure how to distinguish between someone who reads books and someone who collects them, especially someone who invests in them.

 

A million in the world seems smaller for a readership, maybe not for a collectorship. You are also correct that many of these people are adding these books to their lists.

 

However my main point is that collectors in general do not generate large increases in pricing on their own. They tend to know the market better and do not inflate prices through purchase behavior as it is more calculated and within consideration of market knowledge.

 

Newcomers jump in at irrational prices, relist at irrational prices and more newcomers come in at those prices. Sure along the way some collectors are forced to pay those prices or take advantage of the price increase, but they are not the source of it.

 

I liked the "Greater Fool Theory" and felt the art example illustrates my point of view nicely. Only new collectors possess the ignorance to pay the prices that start and compound the inflation.

Edited January 2, 2015 by rfoiii

[BarryAllen]

A question I'm struggling with... the increase in price on these modern keys is attributed to the influx of new buyers. How many new buyers are willing to drop $1000 on a comic in their early collecting years? I'm a cheapskate, I still don't like spending $1000 on a book, but these new, young buyers are reportedly tossing big bucks around.

 

To the dealers: how long do you have to nurture a new customer before he's confident enough to spend 4-bills on one of your books? Do you have any customers you met as a kid who are now big spenders?

 

I don't know that they are all that young. My guess is that they are mostly young working adults (>27 years old) with at least moderate amounts of disposable income (either single or young in relationships where $1,000 isn't unrealistic). Likely they possess some education because they understand the concept of ROI, but not enough knowledge to know where and when. They see a pop trend, hear a little sales pitch, maybe get some cursory data and BAM jump right in.

 

I know more than a few that fit this bill.

Edited January 2, 2015 by rfoiii

[Tony S]

A question I'm struggling with... the increase in price on these modern keys is attributed to the influx of new buyers. How many new buyers are willing to drop $1000 on a comic in their early collecting years? I'm a cheapskate, I still don't like spending $1000 on a book, but these new, young buyers are reportedly tossing big bucks around.

 

To the dealers: how long do you have to nurture a new customer before he's confident enough to spend 4-bills on one of your books? Do you have any customers you met as a kid who are now big spenders?

 

I do wish other dealers would chime in here..

 

New collectors will actually spend money in a fashion and in amounts that longer term collectors might think foolish. But you are correct, it is a rare new customer that comes in buying high dollar items. They might spend a lot of money, but my experience is they also want a lot of stuff (they are new, they have a lot of wants). Typically, it takes a while to warm up to the idea that $1000 spent on one book is often a better investment than $1000 spent on 500 books. It's an advance collector that recognizes the value of more desirable, much more expensive items.

 

There are exceptions and they make for interesting stories. I've thought about posting up one such recent story. Keep in mind these are exceptions. Bonhams (world's third largest auction house) had their first ever auction of comic books. Typically they are very high art and collectibles. Things like James Bond cars, ancient armor, art by the masters, vintage furniture.

 

Some comic lots did - well - very well. Seems some people in the crowd - art dealers that frequent Bonhams auctions - figured comics must be great if Bonhams is auctioning them. They had no comic book experience. Some maybe researched Heritage Auctions. Others just bid away. The bidding on the floor got spirited. Bidders online seemed to know better.

 

Hulk 181 in 9.8 sold for over $16K. The person buying it thought they were bagging a bargain because they saw that Heritage sold one for $26K....... Problem was that was 2009. Book has been selling for 9.5-11K the last couple of years. The buyer rather bummed upon learning the reality. It's OK though. He'll do really well on the raw lots he bought.

 

Meanwhile - an illustration of why GPA is only one pricing source and cannot be some sort of bible all by it'self - now people are listing Hulk 181's for the 90 day GPA average of $13,600 and noting the most recent sale of $16,250. Well, one person's big mistake doesn't make for a new trend.

 

 

Edited January 2, 2015 by Tony S

[Lazyboy]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory

 

Still waiting for the data that show there are more copies of ASM #300 than NM #98...

 

http://www.comichron.com/titlespotlights/amazingspiderman.html

 

That's just the SOO. That doesn't show what I'm asking for.

 

Where's the data that show there are more copies of ASM #300 than NM #98...?

 

Here's some data:

 

Cap City orders:

 

ASM #300 - 42,900

 

NM #98 - 55,200

 

That is a substantial difference. Can we extrapolate? Yes. Yes, we can.

 

 

Weren't there more distributors handling ASM 300 than NM 98? Isn't the SOO the most complete source of print run/sale information available to us before the 90s?

[BarryAllen]

A question I'm struggling with... the increase in price on these modern keys is attributed to the influx of new buyers. How many new buyers are willing to drop $1000 on a comic in their early collecting years? I'm a cheapskate, I still don't like spending $1000 on a book, but these new, young buyers are reportedly tossing big bucks around.

 

To the dealers: how long do you have to nurture a new customer before he's confident enough to spend 4-bills on one of your books? Do you have any customers you met as a kid who are now big spenders?

 

I do wish other dealers would chime in here..

 

New collectors will actually spend money in a fashion and in amounts that longer term collectors might think foolish. But you are correct, it is a rare new customer that comes in buying high dollar items. They might spend a lot of money, but my experience is they also want a lot of stuff (they are new, they have a lot of wants). Typically, it takes a while to warm up to the idea that a $1000 spent on one book is often a better investment than a $1000 spent on 500 books. It's an advance collector that recognizes the value of more desirable, much more expensive items.

 

There are exceptions and they make for interesting stories. I've thought about posting up one such recent story. Keep in mind these are exceptions. Bonhams (world's third largest auction house) had their first ever auction of comic books. Typically they are very high art and collectibles. Things like James Bond cars, ancient armor, art by the masters, vintage furniture.

 

Some comic lots did - well - very well. Seems some people in the crowd - art dealers that frequent Bonhams auctions - figured comics must be great if Bonhams is auctioning them. They had no comic book experience. Some maybe researched Heritage Auctions. Others just bid away. The bidding on the floor got spirited. Bidders online seemed to know better.

 

Hulk 181 in 9.8 sold for over $16K. The person buying it thought they were bagging a bargain because they saw that Heritage sold one for $26K....... Problem was that was 2009. Book has been selling for 9.5-11K the last couple of years. The buyer rather bummed upon learning the reality. It's OK though. He'll do really well on the raw lots he bought.

 

Meanwhile - an illustration of why GPA is only one pricing source and cannot be some sort of bible all by it'self - now people are listing Hulk 181's for the 90 day GPA average of $13,600 and noting the most recent sale of $16,250. Well, one person's big mistake doesn't make for a new trend.

 

 

Wouldn't this type of behavior support my point of view in our other discussion?

[Hulksdaddy1]

Good lord people, stop trying to apply logic and reason to what is (mostly) emotional decisions.

 

NM98 will sell for high prices as long as people perceive it has that, or higher, value.

 

Bubbles burst when perception of value decreases. Doesn't matter if it's stocks, houses or comics.

 

If, and when, WD and DP leave the public eye, they will go down. No one wants something when it's cold.

 

 

[BarryAllen]

Good lord people, stop trying to apply logic and reason to what is (mostly) emotional decisions.

 

NM98 will sell for high prices as long as people perceive it has that, or higher, value.

 

Bubbles burst when perception of value decreases. Doesn't matter if it's stocks, houses or comics.

 

If, and when, WD and DP leave the public eye, they will go down. No one wants something when it's cold.

 

 

Every party needs a pooper...

 

[Hulksdaddy1]

 

 

[BarryAllen]

 

 

 

 

You have no idea how hard that hits home for me right now.

 

[Hulksdaddy1]

 

 

 

 

You have no idea how hard that hits home for me right now.

 

 

 

How old's your baby?

[BarryAllen]

 

 

 

 

You have no idea how hard that hits home for me right now.

 

 

 

How old's your baby?

 

18 months in 5 days. Huge loads!

[Hulksdaddy1]

 

 

 

 

You have no idea how hard that hits home for me right now.

 

 

 

How old's your baby?

 

18 months in 5 days. Huge loads!

 

 

Been there, done that. Such a cute age though. Boy or girl?

[BarryAllen]

 

 

 

 

You have no idea how hard that hits home for me right now.

 

 

 

How old's your baby?

 

18 months in 5 days. Huge loads!

 

 

Been there, done that. Such a cute age though. Boy or girl?

 

Little boy and by little I mean giant. He is super cute but starting the whole tantrum thing.

 

Any advice?

[Hulksdaddy1]

 

 

 

 

You have no idea how hard that hits home for me right now.

 

 

 

How old's your baby?

 

18 months in 5 days. Huge loads!

 

 

Been there, done that. Such a cute age though. Boy or girl?

 

Little boy and by little I mean giant. He is super cute but starting the whole tantrum thing.

 

Any advice?

 

Boy, good. Less nooks and crannies to clean.

 

Advice?

 

The hand off.

[BarryAllen]

 

 

 

 

You have no idea how hard that hits home for me right now.

 

 

 

How old's your baby?

 

18 months in 5 days. Huge loads!

 

 

Been there, done that. Such a cute age though. Boy or girl?

 

Little boy and by little I mean giant. He is super cute but starting the whole tantrum thing.

 

Any advice?

 

Boy, good. Less nooks and crannies to clean.

 

Advice?

 

The hand off.

 

Already my favorite move!

[Tony S]

A question I'm struggling with... the increase in price on these modern keys is attributed to the influx of new buyers. How many new buyers are willing to drop $1000 on a comic in their early collecting years? I'm a cheapskate, I still don't like spending $1000 on a book, but these new, young buyers are reportedly tossing big bucks around.

 

To the dealers: how long do you have to nurture a new customer before he's confident enough to spend 4-bills on one of your books? Do you have any customers you met as a kid who are now big spenders?

 

I do wish other dealers would chime in here..

 

New collectors will actually spend money in a fashion and in amounts that longer term collectors might think foolish. But you are correct, it is a rare new customer that comes in buying high dollar items. They might spend a lot of money, but my experience is they also want a lot of stuff (they are new, they have a lot of wants). Typically, it takes a while to warm up to the idea that a $1000 spent on one book is often a better investment than a $1000 spent on 500 books. It's an advance collector that recognizes the value of more desirable, much more expensive items.

 

There are exceptions and they make for interesting stories. I've thought about posting up one such recent story. Keep in mind these are exceptions. Bonhams (world's third largest auction house) had their first ever auction of comic books. Typically they are very high art and collectibles. Things like James Bond cars, ancient armor, art by the masters, vintage furniture.

 

Some comic lots did - well - very well. Seems some people in the crowd - art dealers that frequent Bonhams auctions - figured comics must be great if Bonhams is auctioning them. They had no comic book experience. Some maybe researched Heritage Auctions. Others just bid away. The bidding on the floor got spirited. Bidders online seemed to know better.

 

Hulk 181 in 9.8 sold for over $16K. The person buying it thought they were bagging a bargain because they saw that Heritage sold one for $26K....... Problem was that was 2009. Book has been selling for 9.5-11K the last couple of years. The buyer rather bummed upon learning the reality. It's OK though. He'll do really well on the raw lots he bought.

 

Meanwhile - an illustration of why GPA is only one pricing source and cannot be some sort of bible all by it'self - now people are listing Hulk 181's for the 90 day GPA average of $13,600 and noting the most recent sale of $16,250. Well, one person's big mistake doesn't make for a new trend.

 

 

Wouldn't this type of behavior support my point of view in our other discussion?

 

No, Not unless you think a couple of people that could affect books like WD 1 or NM 98. Both of which have very large numbers of NM+ copies.

 

There are 89 copies of Hulk 181 in 9.8. Maybe 15 copies sell a year. 3-4 every quarter. One rogue sale creates and immediate bubble in the 90 day average. It hardly affected the 12 month average, which remains below 11K.

 

Compare this to WD 1 (762 copies in 9.8 almost 100 copies sold past 12 months)

NM 98 (1692 copies in 9.8. Over 260 copies sold last 12 months, 73 past 90 days

 

A few newbies flashing cash can't make an impact on books with this kind of availability. It takes a herd of people. Those people are already collectors. Adding the books to their want list. Prices are going up - buzz is going around - and they want in. It's cool to own what others envy - and if prices are going up you can justify the expense.

 

 

You and I really only disagree in one area. You believe TV shows and movies bring in large numbers of new collectors looking for those books. Or at least you believe that is the case for WD. And that all these new collectors bring lots of money and send the prices upwards.

 

As a dealer like forever, I see almost none of that. I know lots of friends that watch the Walking Dead. Or loved the Avengers. Or Captain America. Or Thor. The women especially love Thor. And WD for that matter. They all know I have this weird business of buying and selling comic books. No one wants a comic book. No one wants to know what issue Michone first appears on. No one is interested in even reading the collected trades. Occasionally someone is interested to learn Rick is missing a hand or Daryl isn't a character in the comic. Or that Michone's hatred of the Governor in the comics made more sense and her retaliation much more brutal. But that's it. "Huh? Really?" But they still don't want the comics. "What about Beth. Can you believe they killed her off?! Poor Maggie"

 

You see the major WD stars in high demand at shows. Their VIP's sell out. Yes, comic book collectors go to them, but most are fans of the show and want a picture and autograph.

 

But I can no more prove you wrong than I can prove myself right. I find myself wondering if we are arguing a false dilemma? Perhaps it's both: It's possible that both large numbers of existing collectors add issues to their want lists when a movie is announced or TV show keeps growing in popularity - AND that new readers and collectors are born from those same movies and TV shows. Both things happening, both contributing to upward prices that start looking like bubbles to a lot of people.

 

 

 

 

[BarryAllen]

A question I'm struggling with... the increase in price on these modern keys is attributed to the influx of new buyers. How many new buyers are willing to drop $1000 on a comic in their early collecting years? I'm a cheapskate, I still don't like spending $1000 on a book, but these new, young buyers are reportedly tossing big bucks around.

 

To the dealers: how long do you have to nurture a new customer before he's confident enough to spend 4-bills on one of your books? Do you have any customers you met as a kid who are now big spenders?

 

I do wish other dealers would chime in here..

 

New collectors will actually spend money in a fashion and in amounts that longer term collectors might think foolish. But you are correct, it is a rare new customer that comes in buying high dollar items. They might spend a lot of money, but my experience is they also want a lot of stuff (they are new, they have a lot of wants). Typically, it takes a while to warm up to the idea that a $1000 spent on one book is often a better investment than a $1000 spent on 500 books. It's an advance collector that recognizes the value of more desirable, much more expensive items.

 

There are exceptions and they make for interesting stories. I've thought about posting up one such recent story. Keep in mind these are exceptions. Bonhams (world's third largest auction house) had their first ever auction of comic books. Typically they are very high art and collectibles. Things like James Bond cars, ancient armor, art by the masters, vintage furniture.

 

Some comic lots did - well - very well. Seems some people in the crowd - art dealers that frequent Bonhams auctions - figured comics must be great if Bonhams is auctioning them. They had no comic book experience. Some maybe researched Heritage Auctions. Others just bid away. The bidding on the floor got spirited. Bidders online seemed to know better.

 

Hulk 181 in 9.8 sold for over $16K. The person buying it thought they were bagging a bargain because they saw that Heritage sold one for $26K....... Problem was that was 2009. Book has been selling for 9.5-11K the last couple of years. The buyer rather bummed upon learning the reality. It's OK though. He'll do really well on the raw lots he bought.

 

Meanwhile - an illustration of why GPA is only one pricing source and cannot be some sort of bible all by it'self - now people are listing Hulk 181's for the 90 day GPA average of $13,600 and noting the most recent sale of $16,250. Well, one person's big mistake doesn't make for a new trend.

 

 

Wouldn't this type of behavior support my point of view in our other discussion?

 

No, Not unless you think a couple of people that could affect books like WD 1 or NM 98. Both of which have very large numbers of NM+ copies.

 

There are 89 copies of Hulk 181 in 9.8. Maybe 15 copies sell a year. 3-4 every quarter. One rogue sale creates and immediate bubble in the 90 day average. It hardly affected the 12 month average, which remains below 11K.

 

Compare this to WD 1 (762 copies in 9.8 almost 100 copies sold past 12 months)

NM 98 (1692 copies in 9.8. Over 260 copies sold last 12 months, 73 past 90 days

 

A few newbies flashing cash can't make an impact on books with this kind of availability. It takes a herd of people. Those people are already collectors. Adding the books to their want list. Prices are going up - buzz is going around - and they want in. It's cool to own what others envy - and if prices are going up you can justify the expense.

 

 

You and I really only disagree in one area. You believe TV shows and movies bring in large numbers of new collectors looking for those books. Or at least you believe that is the case for WD. And that all these new collectors bring lots of money and send the prices upwards.

 

As a dealer like forever, I see almost none of that. I know lots of friends that watch the Walking Dead. Or loved the Avengers. Or Captain America. Or Thor. The women especially love Thor. And WD for that matter. They all know I have this weird business of buying and selling comic books. No one wants a comic book. No one wants to know what issue Michone first appears on. No one is interested in even reading the collected trades. Occasionally someone is interested to learn Rick is missing a hand or Daryl isn't a character in the comic. Or that Michone's hatred of the Governor in the comics made more sense and her retaliation much more brutal. But that's it. "Huh? Really?" But they still don't want the comics. "What about Beth. Can you believe they killed her off?! Poor Maggie"

 

You see the major WD stars in high demand at shows. Their VIP's sell out. Yes, comic book collectors go to them, but most are fans of the show and want a picture and autograph.

 

But I can no more prove you wrong than I can prove myself right. I find myself wondering if we are arguing a false dilemma? Perhaps it's both: It's possible that both large numbers of existing collectors add issues to their want lists when a movie is announced or TV show keeps growing in popularity - AND that new readers and collectors are born from those same movies and TV shows. Both things happening, both contributing to upward prices that start looking like bubbles to a lot of people.

 

 

 

 

It makes sense that it could be both. Far more plausible than an extreme of one or the other.

 

I have to say, I have enjoyed the discussion.