Hamlet Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Sure, but in the runup to the crash all anyone said was that there hadn't been a national real estate crash since the Great Depression. You mention that real estate investors weren't prepared for the worst, and I agree. That doesn't appear different than many of the people investing in comics today though. I see the same mentality that they are investing in things that can't go down significantly. I'm not worried about the guy spending $800 on a Hulk 181. I'm worried about the person putting 200k into GA/SA/BA keys because "they never go down". I see an awful lot of talk that SA keys are can't miss investments, almost regardless of price. That kind of thinking usually gets corrected pretty painfully. There's been multiple real estate crashes in US history... http://www.businessinsider.com/the-economic-crash-repeated-every-generation-1800-2012-1?op=1 It's not like it was always a rock solid investment up until the last crash. If you were to compare real estate crashes to key issue crashes you would see that the differences are nearly polar opposite. There is a tendency for people to assume that past behavior predicts future results in investing, and it is an incredibly dangerous tendency. It's only dangerous If you use the past as an absolute, and aren't prepared for the worse, which is something a lot of real estate investors weren't prepared for. A lot of those people weren't even prepared to buy real estate in the first place, let alone prepared for the worse. Using the past to predict future outcomes can be a great tool when utilized correctly, though it can be dangerous when the full spectrum isn't taken into account. I think people took the real estate market value for granted, and If they had taken a closer look at how real estate has played out in previous times, they may have been a bit more hesitant to invest their money into it. I think ignoring past behavior can be an even more dangerous move than trying to incorporate it to your advantage. Comics can be relatively inexpensive (especially compared to real estate). If someone was to invest $800 in Hulk 181, and the book crashed, then so what? You may have lost $800, but you certainly won't need to file bankruptcy (unlike the real estate crash). On the flip side, If someone was to invest hundreds of thousands of dollars into the same book, then yeah, it's risky, because If that book crashes, you now have to face a major loss. The solution here is to not put all your eggs in one basket. Regardless, there's always two sides to a coin. I'm not saying it's impossible for there to be an AF 15 crash, or a Hulk 181 crash, but I am saying that investing in comics doesn't have to be as risky or dangerous as some people here are making it out to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vikingreed Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Buying a Hulk 181 for $800 isn't going to ever make you rich so buy what you like. Simple yet so true.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockMyAmadeus Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Unfortunately not everyone is fortunate enough to work for a company that offers matching 401 k benefits, stock options, etc. There's no fortune involved. If one wants to work for a company that has those benefits, they can. There's nothing stopping them but themselves. And no one is prevented from getting their own retirement account at just about any bank. Go to a bank, call an investment advisor, put the money about to be spent on that comic into a mutual fund. No muss, no fuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kav Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Hamlet makes good points....but one thing that bolsters the comic market is, people want to own comics. People dont collect houses just to look at them and enjoy them. So the intrinsic value may be a factor in a no bubble situation. If suddenly the market collapsed a collector could still say for example hey I have every issue of FF - I love these books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sqeggs Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Sure, but in the runup to the crash all anyone said was that there hadn't been a national real estate crash since the Great Depression. You mention that real estate investors weren't prepared for the worst, and I agree. That doesn't appear different than many of the people investing in comics today though. I see the same mentality that they are investing in things that can't go down significantly. I'm not worried about the guy spending $800 on a Hulk 181. I'm worried about the person putting 200k into GA/SA/BA keys because "they never go down". I see an awful lot of talk that SA keys are can't miss investments, almost regardless of price. That kind of thinking usually gets corrected pretty painfully. There's been multiple real estate crashes in US history... http://www.businessinsider.com/the-economic-crash-repeated-every-generation-1800-2012-1?op=1 It's not like it was always a rock solid investment up until the last crash. If you were to compare real estate crashes to key issue crashes you would see that the differences are nearly polar opposite. There is a tendency for people to assume that past behavior predicts future results in investing, and it is an incredibly dangerous tendency. It's only dangerous If you use the past as an absolute, and aren't prepared for the worse, which is something a lot of real estate investors weren't prepared for. A lot of those people weren't even prepared to buy real estate in the first place, let alone prepared for the worse. Using the past to predict future outcomes can be a great tool when utilized correctly, though it can be dangerous when the full spectrum isn't taken into account. I think people took the real estate market value for granted, and If they had taken a closer look at how real estate has played out in previous times, they may have been a bit more hesitant to invest their money into it. I think ignoring past behavior can be an even more dangerous move than trying to incorporate it to your advantage. Comics can be relatively inexpensive (especially compared to real estate). If someone was to invest $800 in Hulk 181, and the book crashed, then so what? You may have lost $800, but you certainly won't need to file bankruptcy (unlike the real estate crash). On the flip side, If someone was to invest hundreds of thousands of dollars into the same book, then yeah, it's risky, because If that book crashes, you now have to face a major loss. The solution here is to not put all your eggs in one basket. Regardless, there's always two sides to a coin. I'm not saying it's impossible for there to be an AF 15 crash, or a Hulk 181 crash, but I am saying that investing in comics doesn't have to be as risky or dangerous as some people here are making it out to be. We've had this discussion many, many times before and what you have said hits the nail on the head. Any objective view of the comic market has to take into account that this has been one heck of a bull market driven by, among other things, the immense popularity of superhero movies, the arrival of CGC, CLink, CommicConnect, and Heritage (which together greatly increased the liquidity of high-end books), and baby boomers entering their prime earning years. For comics to be a good investment going forward, it's not enough to say that demand won't collapse, you have to argue that demand will increase in the future. Where is that increased demand coming from? In any event, the best advice is to buy what you like at prices you can afford. If the worst happens, then you won't have to sweat it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kav Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I make sure to give comics to kids whenever I can in an effort to continue the next generation of collectors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockMyAmadeus Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 But, Silver Age keys have always climbed in price. Go look at a 1980 price guide and see what Hulk 1 was valued at....see what it is today. See what it was in 1990. It has always climbed. You are incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockMyAmadeus Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I have been collecting for about 3 years and all the info I have ever found, shows only an incline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hamlet Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 You are comparing the intrinsic value of comics with that of houses? You don't appear to know what the word means. I must own shelter for my family. I am currently looking for a larger home because my current one is too small for two adults and two children. I need a house. I specifically want a house in a certain area because it determines how my children are educated, as well as how long my drive to work is. Heck, I need a house as a place to store comics I like comics. I enjoy collecting them, and I derive pleasure from owning old ones. However, their real intrinsic value is pretty small. How much does a set of Marvel Masterworks go for? Hamlet makes good points....but one thing that bolsters the comic market is, people want to own comics. People dont collect houses just to look at them and enjoy them. So the intrinsic value may be a factor in a no bubble situation. If suddenly the market collapsed a collector could still say for example hey I have every issue of FF - I love these books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kav Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Well but people dont collect houses to enjoy them. I dont know why you're comparing marvel masterworks with AF15 or a full run of FF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darkowl Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Sure, but in the runup to the crash all anyone said was that there hadn't been a national real estate crash since the Great Depression. You mention that real estate investors weren't prepared for the worst, and I agree. That doesn't appear different than many of the people investing in comics today though. I see the same mentality that they are investing in things that can't go down significantly. I'm not worried about the guy spending $800 on a Hulk 181. I'm worried about the person putting 200k into GA/SA/BA keys because "they never go down". I see an awful lot of talk that SA keys are can't miss investments, almost regardless of price. That kind of thinking usually gets corrected pretty painfully. There's been multiple real estate crashes in US history... http://www.businessinsider.com/the-economic-crash-repeated-every-generation-1800-2012-1?op=1 It's not like it was always a rock solid investment up until the last crash. If you were to compare real estate crashes to key issue crashes you would see that the differences are nearly polar opposite. There is a tendency for people to assume that past behavior predicts future results in investing, and it is an incredibly dangerous tendency. It's only dangerous If you use the past as an absolute, and aren't prepared for the worse, which is something a lot of real estate investors weren't prepared for. A lot of those people weren't even prepared to buy real estate in the first place, let alone prepared for the worse. Using the past to predict future outcomes can be a great tool when utilized correctly, though it can be dangerous when the full spectrum isn't taken into account. I think people took the real estate market value for granted, and If they had taken a closer look at how real estate has played out in previous times, they may have been a bit more hesitant to invest their money into it. I think ignoring past behavior can be an even more dangerous move than trying to incorporate it to your advantage. Comics can be relatively inexpensive (especially compared to real estate). If someone was to invest $800 in Hulk 181, and the book crashed, then so what? You may have lost $800, but you certainly won't need to file bankruptcy (unlike the real estate crash). On the flip side, If someone was to invest hundreds of thousands of dollars into the same book, then yeah, it's risky, because If that book crashes, you now have to face a major loss. The solution here is to not put all your eggs in one basket. Regardless, there's always two sides to a coin. I'm not saying it's impossible for there to be an AF 15 crash, or a Hulk 181 crash, but I am saying that investing in comics doesn't have to be as risky or dangerous as some people here are making it out to be. Point taken, and agreed with. Like I said, I think there's two sides to this coin, and you and I are pointing both of them out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darkowl Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Sure, but in the runup to the crash all anyone said was that there hadn't been a national real estate crash since the Great Depression. You mention that real estate investors weren't prepared for the worst, and I agree. That doesn't appear different than many of the people investing in comics today though. I see the same mentality that they are investing in things that can't go down significantly. I'm not worried about the guy spending $800 on a Hulk 181. I'm worried about the person putting 200k into GA/SA/BA keys because "they never go down". I see an awful lot of talk that SA keys are can't miss investments, almost regardless of price. That kind of thinking usually gets corrected pretty painfully. There's been multiple real estate crashes in US history... http://www.businessinsider.com/the-economic-crash-repeated-every-generation-1800-2012-1?op=1 It's not like it was always a rock solid investment up until the last crash. If you were to compare real estate crashes to key issue crashes you would see that the differences are nearly polar opposite. There is a tendency for people to assume that past behavior predicts future results in investing, and it is an incredibly dangerous tendency. It's only dangerous If you use the past as an absolute, and aren't prepared for the worse, which is something a lot of real estate investors weren't prepared for. A lot of those people weren't even prepared to buy real estate in the first place, let alone prepared for the worse. Using the past to predict future outcomes can be a great tool when utilized correctly, though it can be dangerous when the full spectrum isn't taken into account. I think people took the real estate market value for granted, and If they had taken a closer look at how real estate has played out in previous times, they may have been a bit more hesitant to invest their money into it. I think ignoring past behavior can be an even more dangerous move than trying to incorporate it to your advantage. Comics can be relatively inexpensive (especially compared to real estate). If someone was to invest $800 in Hulk 181, and the book crashed, then so what? You may have lost $800, but you certainly won't need to file bankruptcy (unlike the real estate crash). On the flip side, If someone was to invest hundreds of thousands of dollars into the same book, then yeah, it's risky, because If that book crashes, you now have to face a major loss. The solution here is to not put all your eggs in one basket. Regardless, there's always two sides to a coin. I'm not saying it's impossible for there to be an AF 15 crash, or a Hulk 181 crash, but I am saying that investing in comics doesn't have to be as risky or dangerous as some people here are making it out to be. We've had this discussion many, many times before and what you have said hits the nail on the head. Any objective view of the comic market has to take into account that this has been one heck of a bull market driven by, among other things, the immense popularity of superhero movies, the arrival of CGC, CLink, CommicConnect, and Heritage (which together greatly increased the liquidity of high-end books), and baby boomers entering their prime earning years. For comics to be a good investment going forward, it's not enough to say that demand won't collapse, you have to argue that demand will increase in the future. Where is that increased demand coming from? In any event, the best advice is to buy what you like at prices you can afford. If the worst happens, then you won't have to sweat it. I think that sums it up completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MetalPSI Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I just won an ebay auction for a book for a quarter of what it's actually "worth". Actually, this has happened about 3 times in the past few months where I have won books for less than I can explain. Comics as an investment? Sure.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gem_Mint Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 (edited) didn't read all the pages, but TT2 is nothing to scoff at... Edited February 23, 2015 by Gem_Mint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kav Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I just won an ebay auction for a book for a quarter of what it's actually "worth". Actually, this has happened about 3 times in the past few months where I have won books for less than I can explain. Comics as an investment? Sure.... If its a modern that doesnt count If you got AF15 for a 1/4 what it's worth, your argument has validity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark 1 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 But, Silver Age keys have always climbed in price. Go look at a 1980 price guide and see what Hulk 1 was valued at....see what it is today. See what it was in 1990. It has always climbed. You are incorrect. No sir you are incorrect. Show me where a SA mega key has declined in value since 1980. Instead of sweeping blanket statements...back it up with data. Every year OSPG would increase the price of keys like hulk 1, TOS 39, JIM 83, etc.ive not see I showed earlier that since 2002 Hulk 181 has increased in value. You love to tell people they are wrong but how about some substance behind your posting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kav Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 But, Silver Age keys have always climbed in price. Go look at a 1980 price guide and see what Hulk 1 was valued at....see what it is today. See what it was in 1990. It has always climbed. You are incorrect. No sir you are incorrect. Show me where a SA mega key has declined in value since 1980. Instead of sweeping blanket statements...back it up with data. Every year OSPG would increase the price of keys like hulk 1, TOS 39, JIM 83, etc.ive not see I showed earlier that since 2002 Hulk 181 has increased in value. You love to tell people they are wrong but how about some substance behind your posting? There is no SA mega key that has declined in value over 35 years. Or even 10 years. Probly not even 1 year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryAllen Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 (edited) But, Silver Age keys have always climbed in price. Go look at a 1980 price guide and see what Hulk 1 was valued at....see what it is today. See what it was in 1990. It has always climbed. You are incorrect. No sir you are incorrect. Show me where a SA mega key has declined in value since 1980. Instead of sweeping blanket statements...back it up with data. Every year OSPG would increase the price of keys like hulk 1, TOS 39, JIM 83, etc.ive not see I showed earlier that since 2002 Hulk 181 has increased in value. You love to tell people they are wrong but how about some substance behind your posting? There is no SA mega key that has declined in value over 35 years. Or even 10 years. Probly not even 1 year. I love a good gratuitous absolute sweeping statement as much as the next guy who loves to argue but this simply can't be true if you include all grades over all time. I definitely agree the books are worth more over 5, 10, 20 , etc years, but there have been declines in there. It isn't a complete upward trend in all grades in all "mega" keys... My only other thought would be that the term "key" (mega or otherwise) has changed over the last several decades as characters have come in and out of popularity. Especially when you extend the timeline beyond 15 years. Of course this isn't central to the argument but is worth noting. Edited February 23, 2015 by rfoiii Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kav Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 But, Silver Age keys have always climbed in price. Go look at a 1980 price guide and see what Hulk 1 was valued at....see what it is today. See what it was in 1990. It has always climbed. You are incorrect. No sir you are incorrect. Show me where a SA mega key has declined in value since 1980. Instead of sweeping blanket statements...back it up with data. Every year OSPG would increase the price of keys like hulk 1, TOS 39, JIM 83, etc.ive not see I showed earlier that since 2002 Hulk 181 has increased in value. You love to tell people they are wrong but how about some substance behind your posting? There is no SA mega key that has declined in value over 35 years. Or even 10 years. Probly not even 1 year. I love a good gratuitous absolute sweeping statement as much as the next guy who loves to argue but this simply can't be true if you include all grades over all time. I definitely agree the books are worth more over 5, 10, 20 , etc years, but there have been declines in there. It isn't a complete upward trend in all grades in all "mega" keys... My only other thought would be that the term "key" (mega or otherwise) has changed over the last several decades as characters have come in and out of popularity. Especially when you extend the timeline beyond 15 years. Of course this isn't central to the argument but is worth noting. Example of a decline? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryAllen Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 (edited) But, Silver Age keys have always climbed in price. Go look at a 1980 price guide and see what Hulk 1 was valued at....see what it is today. See what it was in 1990. It has always climbed. You are incorrect. No sir you are incorrect. Show me where a SA mega key has declined in value since 1980. Instead of sweeping blanket statements...back it up with data. Every year OSPG would increase the price of keys like hulk 1, TOS 39, JIM 83, etc.ive not see I showed earlier that since 2002 Hulk 181 has increased in value. You love to tell people they are wrong but how about some substance behind your posting? There is no SA mega key that has declined in value over 35 years. Or even 10 years. Probly not even 1 year. I love a good gratuitous absolute sweeping statement as much as the next guy who loves to argue but this simply can't be true if you include all grades over all time. I definitely agree the books are worth more over 5, 10, 20 , etc years, but there have been declines in there. It isn't a complete upward trend in all grades in all "mega" keys... My only other thought would be that the term "key" (mega or otherwise) has changed over the last several decades as characters have come in and out of popularity. Especially when you extend the timeline beyond 15 years. Of course this isn't central to the argument but is worth noting. Example of a decline? The burden of proof really should be on you, but.... GPA on Incredible Hulk 1 2.5 2008 High = $2,225 2009 High = $2,050 2010 High = $2,000 2011 High = $1,912 Edited February 23, 2015 by rfoiii Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
