Total Existing Copies of AF #15 2 2

[Rip]

I agree, no way regarding 25-30K copies.

[skypinkblu]

[

 

Sure, but now you are saying that people who own stabbed copies are much more predisposed to do so? Why would you think that?

 

At some point constantly refuting any and all data is becoming excessive.

 

This is a club, a selection of collectors and the vast majority of books in the club are slabbed. If raw books were the vast majority, the numbers should at least be close even if people with slabs are predisposed to sharing in the internet.

 

A sample of data representing be population has to be relevant at somepoint.

 

First of all, you have to accept that these boards do not represent any kind of majority in the collecting world. Then you have to accept that there are people on here, who own books that are listed in the "clubs" who don't chose to post them.

 

The majority of people on here rarely post.

 

Ernie Gerber wrote a wonderful book on scarcity. There was at least one book that he named as a 10 (extremely scarce, less than 20 known copies ) that I had 3 copies of at one time. Atomic Bomb was the book. There were books in Overstreet, specifically the Tom Terrific books that were listed as scarce, that I had at least 10 of at one time.

 

It's just guessing, you are never going to know unless you can call up everyone in the country and ask and they actually agree to answer you..

 

[G.A.tor]

Scrabble/ one block = Board Members versus Comic Fandom at large...... do you know what a small fraction of collectors even come here ? .....and as you've said....to a Slab Site ? Why don't we bend over and grasp a grain of sand..... and proclaim "This is the World".....GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

...we're all just trying to help you understand something..... I like you, otherwise I wouldn't waste my time.

 

 

At this point I am just arguing against the extreme (30k copies and up) and because I like the challenge.

 

We are close enough on the overall numbers (or at least some of us agree on 5k-10k or so) and that is good enough for me.

 

It has been a pleasure debating this (with most of you).

 

My brain hurts, I am going to go play Hyrule Warriors or build some Legos.

I would agree that 30K seems "too many"....

 

and I agree with J that most are lower grade (large percentage of raw copies)...

 

anyone know how many copies pgx has graded (just curious)....

[Lazyboy]

Anyway, different line of thinking: if this data is true it leads me to believe that the overwhelming majority are not interested in selling. While I can believe it is a coveted book, it is hard to believe so many people couldn't or wouldn't want to capitalize on a minimum of a $4,000ish payday... Ignoring the absolute number of be census, why wouldn't it's numbers grow each year at least closer to the price increase growth curve? The more it became expensive, the higher likelihood that people would start to sell right?

 

Again, this is definitely conjecture, but if greater than 90% of owners are pure collectors not interested in selling (to buy more books, to buy a car, to pay for kids/grandkids college, to take a trip of a lifetime, etc) - shouldn't more people on here own a copy? This is a very focused group with many experienced collectors that lived through all of this and experienced it all first hand. Wouldn't a lot own a copy? Maybe they do and aren't sharing. Or shouldn't the raw list outpace the slabbed list by far and away in the club (opposite is true by the way)? I don't know, but 15,000 and 90% of available issues seem like high numbers.

How much is your collection worth? Why don't you sell your collection and do something else with the money?

[BarryAllen]

Anyway, different line of thinking: if this data is true it leads me to believe that the overwhelming majority are not interested in selling. While I can believe it is a coveted book, it is hard to believe so many people couldn't or wouldn't want to capitalize on a minimum of a $4,000ish payday... Ignoring the absolute number of be census, why wouldn't it's numbers grow each year at least closer to the price increase growth curve? The more it became expensive, the higher likelihood that people would start to sell right?

 

Again, this is definitely conjecture, but if greater than 90% of owners are pure collectors not interested in selling (to buy more books, to buy a car, to pay for kids/grandkids college, to take a trip of a lifetime, etc) - shouldn't more people on here own a copy? This is a very focused group with many experienced collectors that lived through all of this and experienced it all first hand. Wouldn't a lot own a copy? Maybe they do and aren't sharing. Or shouldn't the raw list outpace the slabbed list by far and away in the club (opposite is true by the way)? I don't know, but 15,000 and 90% of available issues seem like high numbers.

How much is your collection worth? Why don't you sell your collection and do something else with the money?

 

I like comics, a lot. Like a whole lot.

 

Who cares what they are worth?

 

Do you want me gone or something?

 

 

Night!

Edited March 10, 2015 by rfoiii

[ttfitz]

 

Anyway, different line of thinking: if this data is true it leads me to believe that the overwhelming majority are not interested in selling. While I can believe it is a coveted book, it is hard to believe so many people couldn't or wouldn't want to capitalize on a minimum of a $4,000ish payday... Ignoring the absolute number of be census, why wouldn't it's numbers grow each year at least closer to the price increase growth curve? The more it became expensive, the higher likelihood that people would start to sell right?

 

I'm probably fairly typical of the "old time collector" mentioned here as the likely holders of many of the existent copies of AF15, and I can tell you my copy could be worth $1 million, and I wouldn't sell it - because then I wouldn't own one.

 

[ttfitz]

What about this point then:

 

Shouldn't the AF 15 club show the raw list outpace the slabbed list by far and away?

 

I get it, this is sponsored by the CGC. But isnt this place first and foremost a "Collector's" society right?

 

But that seems to be the case with most of the clubs, doesn't it?

 

I looked at 3 of the "rebooted" ones, Daredevil #1, Hulk #1, and Iron Man #55. In all cases, the slabbed outnumbered the raw, from around 3:1 to 4:1. Do you think that most of those books that exist are slabbed?

 

The argument depends on the assertion of how many copies are available in market total.

 

My point isn't that the majority are stabbed, but rather if the opposite is true than the numbers should be more balanced.

 

Hulk 1 is a good example - what is the assumption of total books in market versus the census? Same ratio as AF 15?

 

I may have lost track of who was using what info in what manner, but my understanding is that those who are arguing low numbers are pointing at the slabbed statistics, and asserting that a sizable percentage of the existing copies are slabbed. Further, I took your assertion of the numbers from the club as being a fact backing up such an assumption. Did I misunderstand?

 

[jimjum12]

 

Anyway, different line of thinking: if this data is true it leads me to believe that the overwhelming majority are not interested in selling. While I can believe it is a coveted book, it is hard to believe so many people couldn't or wouldn't want to capitalize on a minimum of a $4,000ish payday... Ignoring the absolute number of be census, why wouldn't it's numbers grow each year at least closer to the price increase growth curve? The more it became expensive, the higher likelihood that people would start to sell right?

 

I'm probably fairly typical of the "old time collector" mentioned here as the likely holders of many of the existent copies of AF15, and I can tell you my copy could be worth $1 million, and I wouldn't sell it - because then I wouldn't own one.

 

...I was waiting for someone to say that...... to an ASM Fan....... there's not much short of a house that would take it's place.... GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

[Poe]

 

Anyway, different line of thinking: if this data is true it leads me to believe that the overwhelming majority are not interested in selling. While I can believe it is a coveted book, it is hard to believe so many people couldn't or wouldn't want to capitalize on a minimum of a $4,000ish payday... Ignoring the absolute number of be census, why wouldn't it's numbers grow each year at least closer to the price increase growth curve? The more it became expensive, the higher likelihood that people would start to sell right?

 

I'm probably fairly typical of the "old time collector" mentioned here as the likely holders of many of the existent copies of AF15, and I can tell you my copy could be worth $1 million, and I wouldn't sell it - because then I wouldn't own one.

 

One. Million. Dollars.

 

Holy mess.

[Mark 1]

I sold my lower grade raw copy back in the late 90s. I've looked for it ever since slabbed and i haven't run across it.

 

It was a distinct copy with a tear in the center of the comic coming from the outside edge into about inch into the cover. Solid book attached at the staples with some chipping but not a true Good in my eyes because the back cover was nice.

 

Anyway, at the time I was looking for a copy it seemed there were few to buy but when I was selling...it was quick.

 

The downside of owning and selling an AF15 is you can always find a buyer. Demand is high.

 

I don't think we will ever know how many copies exist. The last time I went to NYCC and saw Gator's wall I could swear he had at least 10,000 of them on the wall.

[ttfitz]

 

Anyway, different line of thinking: if this data is true it leads me to believe that the overwhelming majority are not interested in selling. While I can believe it is a coveted book, it is hard to believe so many people couldn't or wouldn't want to capitalize on a minimum of a $4,000ish payday... Ignoring the absolute number of be census, why wouldn't it's numbers grow each year at least closer to the price increase growth curve? The more it became expensive, the higher likelihood that people would start to sell right?

 

I'm probably fairly typical of the "old time collector" mentioned here as the likely holders of many of the existent copies of AF15, and I can tell you my copy could be worth $1 million, and I wouldn't sell it - because then I wouldn't own one.

 

One. Million. Dollars.

 

Holy mess.

 

(Just in case - you know I was saying IF my copy was worth that, not that it IS worth that, right?)

 

And, a quick clarification - if Dr. Evil were to wake up, say, and offer me $1 million for my copy, I would of course, sell it, because I know I can turn around and buy a (much nicer) copy to replace it and still have most of that money left over.

 

But when the question is when the book is "worth" some amount.

[Lazyboy]

Anyway, different line of thinking: if this data is true it leads me to believe that the overwhelming majority are not interested in selling. While I can believe it is a coveted book, it is hard to believe so many people couldn't or wouldn't want to capitalize on a minimum of a $4,000ish payday... Ignoring the absolute number of be census, why wouldn't it's numbers grow each year at least closer to the price increase growth curve? The more it became expensive, the higher likelihood that people would start to sell right?

 

Again, this is definitely conjecture, but if greater than 90% of owners are pure collectors not interested in selling (to buy more books, to buy a car, to pay for kids/grandkids college, to take a trip of a lifetime, etc) - shouldn't more people on here own a copy? This is a very focused group with many experienced collectors that lived through all of this and experienced it all first hand. Wouldn't a lot own a copy? Maybe they do and aren't sharing. Or shouldn't the raw list outpace the slabbed list by far and away in the club (opposite is true by the way)? I don't know, but 15,000 and 90% of available issues seem like high numbers.

How much is your collection worth? Why don't you sell your collection and do something else with the money?

 

I like comics, a lot. Like a whole lot.

 

Who cares what they are worth?

 

Do you want me gone or something?

 

 

Night!

Exactly! Why would any collector sell (part of) their collection unless they actually needed the money?

[RockMyAmadeus]

 

all of the "older" timers acknowledge the high likelihood of thousands out there... seems only the "younger" folk can't acknowledge that.... and to a degree, I guess I can see how living and collecting in a cgc era, and I suspect large portions of comic interactions are here on the cgc board, would skew one's opinion...

 

but take it from those of us that have been around the block buying and selling for 20-40+ years... in every case (contributors to this thread), we have all concluded there are thousands and thousands of copies out there... how many, no one will ever know...but to think that there are only hundreds out there not slabbed, that simply cannot be...

 

 

This. Again, this. Let me repeat, because everyone else is being very nice about it: "to think there are only hundreds out there not slabbed, simply cannot be."

 

As a VERY interesting aside, there has sprung up, since the advent of CGC, a tendency among "new" collectors/buyers/investors/whatevers to view things only within the context of CGC and slabbing. This, naturally, is a grave mistake.

 

Jay...this is not the first time you have been told this (Sandman #8 variant), but you still refuse to believe it. People with decades of experience are telling you the same things, from different perspectives, and you're still refusing to listen.

 

My recommendation to those who view things this way: put down the keyboard, and pick up the reading glasses. Read, read, read. Read everything you can get your hands on. It won't make up for direct experience, but it is as good as you can get. Read what people write on these boards (WITHOUT responding, other than asking questions.) Read CBG. Read everything Overstreet has printed. Read Amazing Heroes. Read any and all of the fanzines you can get your hands on. Read Chuck's Tales from the Database. Read the Comics Journal.

 

Go to a convention, grab a chair, and sit and listen to John Verzyl. He is an absolute treasure. Absolute treasure. Talk to Gary Colabuono. Talk to Vincent Zurzolo.

 

That's the best advice you can get.

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

To believe that out of the original 175,000 print run that only one percent survived is equally grounded in the realm of conjecture and speculation fantasy....

 

Fixed, just a touch.

[Heronext]

A friend of mine and I grew up collecting together. Later I moved away for college and work. He has a raw Hulk 1 in about 5.0 and an X-Men 1 in about the same condition. The X-Men cost him $150 in the mid-80s. Has some nice early Spideys but no AF 15. He has a sizeable collection, but long ago he moved on to collecting movie posters and autographs. He's heavy into horror movie memorabilia and makes costumes.

 

He is very attached to his stuff and he would never sell any of it. Maybe on his deathbed. None of his comics are graded, none have ever been scanned, none have been shared on the Internet. He doesn't care for online groups and forums. He isn't swayed by talk of money. He doesn't check GPA every week on the value of his keys, although he might flip through Overstreet every couple of years.

 

If I know one guy like that, how many others must there be of the 320 million people in this country? I don't tend to think of the original owners who might still own their copies, but the thousands of collectors who may have picked up these books in the 70s, 80s and 90s and who have them out of sight, out of mind, and are busy with other aspects of life.

 

Remember before 15 years ago, there were 0 CGC-graded copies of AF 15. Now there are X amount. 15 years is not a long time. Do you expect everyone to jump because someone down in Florida starts gluing comics inside hard plastic?

 

Somebody mentioned they couldn't understand a person not being tempted to sell belongings if they were worth several thousand dollars. It's very easy for me to understand. Happens all the time - think family heirlooms. A lot of people really are just fine where they are.

[RockMyAmadeus]

Comic stores between 1978 and 1988, it was common that they had Silver Age collections walking in the door once or twice a week. Out of those collections within a years time just say the mega 500 comic stores could of scored 1-3 copies of an AF 15. With a ratio of 75 collections in a year with just 3% containing an AF 15, that would be 2 copies per store. So that would make 500 stores with 2 copies each, or 1,000 copies a year, for a decade, 10,000 copies. You can also add in smaller comic shops, CBG mail order dealers, convention dealers. That gets you through the bulk years of when original owner Silver Collections were recycled into the back issue market. You than have the decade of the 1990's when Silver collections thinned out dramatically. Its not that AF 15 didn't trade, just much less frequent than the previous decade due to the lower volume of original owner Silver Collections coming to market. You also have the 2000 to current where some shops don't see but one or two Silver collections in a years time. So did Silver collections all of a sudden become scarce? No, they just are not for sale in the same ratio as they were from the late 70's through the 80's. So is AF 15 all of a sudden scarce. No, it just does not come up for sale at the same ratio as it did from the late 70's through the 80's. When collectors forked out $50-$300 for a low grade copy the 80's, they absolutely did not throw it away, its still in a bag and board, in box in there collection, not for sale.

 

To add to this: in 1987, the great Silver Age vacuum began. At that time, there began a nationwide buying spree on Silver Age, and of course, high grade keys were sucked out the fastest, but by 1990, most SA above Fi/VF had essentially evaporated from the market, not to return for a decade or more.

 

I entered the comics market in 1989. Throughout the 90's, I didn't believe there were any actual NM copies of 1960's or earlier books in existence, with some exceptions (like the Church collection), simply because I never, ever saw them. What I didn't know was that they were hidden away, and not for sale. The White Mountain AF #15 was one of the very rare exceptions, when it was auctioned in 1993 at Sotheby's by Jerry Wiest, for a hammer of $39,100.

 

In fact, the years from 1987-1994 were, by far, the most significant in the valuation history of AF #15 (among many others.) In that 7 year period, the value of the book increased 10-20 fold, or more, depending on the copy. In 1988, the White Mountain sold for 2.5x OPG (according to Matt Nelson) which, at the time, was $1200 (someone please correct me if I have that wrong; I don't have my 1988 copy handy at the moment.)

 

So, that particular copy sold for $3000, and within 7 years, sold for $39.100, or 13 times its 1988 value. In the ensuing 10 years, the value of that copy only increased 4 times, from $39k to $150k. In fact...when it was sold again less than a year later, it was sold at a loss...$126k.

 

Now, clearly the book is worth substantially more than that at this point, as a non-ped 9.4 sold for $325k in 2011...but the lesson is clear: in the 22 years since 1993, the book STILL has not increased in value at the same rate as it did between 1988, when it was first brought to market, and 1993. For that rate to be mirrored, the book would have to sell for north of $500,000, and the market doesn't support that (?) at this time. Still...it would be 22 years, vs. 7.

 

But back to the SA market in general. With the advent of CGC, there was a wondrous revelation made to me about the fact that ultra high grade copies of these books DID exist, and they always had...they'd just been locked up in inventories and collections until more favorable conditions existed. That was the key to me learning about the realities of the market: that what is for sale at any given time, and what has been slabbed since 2000, is the tip of the tip of the iceberg of what actually exists. The census represents a mere fraction, and a tiny one at that, of what exists, and comparisons to modern "manufactured collectible" variants completely fail.

 

Meanwhile, the lessons of the late 80's in the coin slabbed market taught me much about the census, and its unreliability as an indicator of what actually exists. For example: there are 238,326 1881-S Morgan Dollars slabbed by NGC and on their census. But, because we know that the US Treasury Dept had several thousand bags (at 1,000 coins per bag) in storage in the early 1960's, we know that at least 5 million, and possibly as much as 8-9 million, of the original mintage of 12,760,000 examples still exist, with most being in mint state. This is a coin that was made over 130 years ago, and these numbers were estimated long before slabbing existed.

 

Yet, only 238k examples have been slabbed, and that over 28 years of slabbing, twice as long as CGC has been around! If we were to consider that the census represents a significant amount of extant coins, we might conclude there are only 300-600k examples left, based on the 238k census number.

 

Of course, we know that's not true, and the vast, vast majority remain unslabbed. Comparable to AF #15? No, of course not. It's only used to illustrate the problem with relying on the census for anything but the most broad indications of what exists, and that we must rely on other, more concrete information when coming up with an estimate of extant examples of anything.

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

There are lots of things made from all eras that were popular with a less than 10% survival rate. Cards, toys, books, etc - very little survives

 

Relative to what? What eras are we talking about? Comics from the 1930's and 40's? Cards from the 10's and 20's? Books from the 1800's?

 

Because by the 1960's, virtually every baseball card that exists, exists in substantial numbers. You need to go back to the early 40's to find that not true. Most books from the 20th century, especially popular books, are extant in large numbers relative to their initial printings.

 

It's entirely relative to what era you're referring to. Vague generalities don't work.

 

[ttfitz]

In fact, the years from 1987-1994 were, by far, the most significant in the valuation history of AF #15 (among many others.) In that 7 year period, the value of the book increased 10-20 fold, or more, depending on the copy. In 1988, the White Mountain sold for 2.5x OPG (according to Matt Nelson) which, at the time, was $1200 (someone please correct me if I have that wrong; I don't have my 1988 copy handy at the moment.)

 

The oldest Overstreet I have is the 18th edition, 1988-1989. AF15 is listed in Mint for $1500. The market report listed a copy in NM selling for $2,200.

 

 

[Jeffro.]

 

As a VERY interesting aside, there has sprung up, since the advent of CGC, a tendency among "new" collectors/buyers/investors/whatevers to view things only within the context of CGC and slabbing. This, naturally, is a grave mistake.

 

 

 

This is true and I've seen it play out time and time again on the boards. Some people tend to place way too much value on the census when trying to determine scarcity.

 

If there are only 3 slabbed 9.8 copies of a particular comic, does that mean it's rare?

Or is it rare only in 9.8?

Or is it a case of the comic itself not being valuable enough to slab and therefore the census numbers will always be low?

 

Sometimes you gotta dig deeper.

[Mark 1]

Wish I had a time machine to 1978