Total Existing Copies of AF #15 2 2

[Jaydogrules]

Top Ten Things I have learned from this thread (Pardon the necessary paraphrasing and the Letterman homage):

 

1) Nobody actually "knows" anything, and polls are generally meaningless;

 

2) A census with a 15+ year history and millions of submissions is invalid, incorrect, and also meaningless;

 

3) Only "national dealers" are qualified to give opinions;

 

4) Greg Reece (a national dealer) has only seen one raw copy in a year;

 

5) Gator (a quasi-national dealer) only acquired 6 raw copies last year, which is about a 1 out of 4 ratio to the slabbed copies he acquired;

 

6) Neither Roulette44 nor SOT (also dealers, though perhaps not "national") believe there are "thousands and thousands" of raw copies extant;

 

7) The "Vi-Queens" still suck;

 

8) There are currently about 33 slabbed copies for sale on ebay, and 5 raw copies - about a 1 out of 6 ratio;

 

9) Apparently only people who own slabbed copies ever actually sell - the owners of all of the unseen raw copies evidently overwhelmingly have too strong of an emotional connection to either slab or sell their copies (not counting, of course, the 5 people trying to sell theirs on ebay at the moment);

 

10) Everybody knows a guy who knows a guy who knows a guy with several raw copies of AF 15.

 

-J.

[ttfitz]

[RockMyAmadeus]

Top Ten Things I have learned from this thread (Pardon the necessary paraphrasing and the Letterman homage:

 

1) Nobody actually "knows" anything;

 

True, and absolutely true, depending on where you're coming from philosophically.

 

2) A census with a 15+ year history and millions of submissions is invalid, incorrect, and meaningless;

 

Oh, come on, no need for the melodrama.

 

No one said that, at all, ever.

 

What it IS, however, is about 5 pieces in a 500 piece puzzle. Accurate...for that section of the picture that it shows...but missing the vast majority of the bigger picture. Those 5 pieces aren't useless...they form a vital part of the picture...but only a tiny faction of it.

 

And "millions of submissions", yes, but over 10s of thousands of different individual issues. The census does not, because it cannot, ever tell us anything conclusive about what actually exists...it merely shows what has passed before it. In that, it's not a TRUE census, but much more of a tally.

 

A census actively gathers; a tally passively records.

 

3) Only "national dealers" are qualified to give opinions;

 

I don't know what this means; what is a "national" dealer? Is there some association one can join?: I'm an INTERnational "dealer", having sold comics to people all over the globe. What does that make me?

 

4) Greg Reece (a national dealer) has only seen one raw copy in a year;

 

5) Gator (a quasi-national dealer) only acquired 6 raw copies last year, which is only about a 1:4 ratio to the slabbed copies he acquired;

 

Not conclusive.

 

6) Neither Roulette44 nor SOT (also dealers, though perhaps not "national") believe there are "thousands and thousands" of raw copies extant;

 

Yes, and these are unreasonable conclusions, as explained.

 

7) The "Vi-Queens" still suck;

 

8) There are currently about 33 slabbed copies for sale on ebay, and 5 raw copies - about a 1:6 ratio;

 

9) Apparently only people who own slabbed copies ever actually sell - the owners of all of the unseen raw copies evidently overwhelmingly have too strong of an emotional connection to either slab or sell their copies (not counting, of course, the 5 people trying to sell theirs right now on ebay at the moment);

 

10) Everybody knows a guy who knows a guy who knows a guy with several raw copies of AF 15.

 

-J.

 

Oh boy.

[Jaydogrules]

 

 

-J.

[ComicConnoisseur]

There has been 194 new posts in this thread since I last looked at it!

Compared to the 7 new posts in the similar Hulk #181 thread.

[ttfitz]

3) Only "national dealers" are qualified to give opinions;

 

I don't know what this means; what is a "national" dealer? Is there some association one can join?: I'm an INTERnational "dealer", having sold comics to people all over the globe. What does that make me?

 

The one who brought "national dealers" as the ones to talk to into this conversation was Spectre, who has argued the low end of possibility, when he said:

 

There are not thousands of Raw copies left ungraded. I travel all around the country for shows and I don't think any national dealer would agree with that school of thought.

 

Then he got some here who did agreed with it, and then it was some unnamed "national dealers" that he had talked to.

 

4) Greg Reece (a national dealer) has only seen one raw copy in a year;

 

5) Gator (a quasi-national dealer) only acquired 6 raw copies last year, which is only about a 1:4 ratio to the slabbed copies he acquired;

 

Not conclusive.

 

More importantly, I find it odd that these two are referred to, considering that neither seem to agree with the idea of a small number of copies out there in the raw, Reese said:

 

I am in the camp that the book is plentiful in the raw and I think what the younger, more census centric posters may be missing is this book has a unique place in the hearts of collectors.

 

And Gator said:

 

I would say with near certainty there are thousands (as in more than one thousand ) of ungraded af15s out there in folks collections and with equal certainty (having also traveled the country and set up at major shows for last 10 years) would think the #1 seller of vintage comics in the world, metro , has sold near that many themselves (maybe Vincent will chime in).

 

I'm unclear how the number these gentlemen have seen "in a year" has much significance.

[Prince Namor]

The biggest issue with newer collector's thought process on all of this is that they believe CGC is somehow a large part of the collecting community, or that it is somehow a microcosm of the hobby.

They see the hobby based on what they see HERE on this forum.

 

It's like living in Antartica and believing the entire earth is frozen.

 

This whole CGC thing is a small niche of the hobby. UHG collectors are a small niche of the hobby. This forum is a small niche of the hobby.

 

And you take away modern submissions... hoo boy... CGC wouldn't even exist.

 

Just because we bang our drum harder and louder here in our Antartica, it doesn't make us any bigger on the planet.

[gregreece]

 

4) Greg Reece (a national dealer) has only seen purchased one raw copy in a year;

 

And just bought a 2nd this week.

 

[BarryAllen]

Top Ten Things I have learned from this thread (Pardon the necessary paraphrasing and the Letterman homage):

 

1) Nobody actually "knows" anything, and polls are generally meaningless;

 

2) A census with a 15+ year history and millions of submissions is invalid, incorrect, and also meaningless;

 

3) Only "national dealers" are qualified to give opinions;

 

4) Greg Reece (a national dealer) has only seen one raw copy in a year;

 

5) Gator (a quasi-national dealer) only acquired 6 raw copies last year, which is about a 1 out of 4 ratio to the slabbed copies he acquired;

 

6) Neither Roulette44 nor SOT (also dealers, though perhaps not "national") believe there are "thousands and thousands" of raw copies extant;

 

7) The "Vi-Queens" still suck;

 

8) There are currently about 33 slabbed copies for sale on ebay, and 5 raw copies - about a 1 out of 6 ratio;

 

9) Apparently only people who own slabbed copies ever actually sell - the owners of all of the unseen raw copies evidently overwhelmingly have too strong of an emotional connection to either slab or sell their copies (not counting, of course, the 5 people trying to sell theirs on ebay at the moment);

 

10) Everybody knows a guy who knows a guy who knows a guy with several raw copies of AF 15.

 

-J.

 

 

Taking this in the spirit I think it was intended, I do agree that the thread has become a little ridiculous. It is either take the opinions of the "more experienced" folks on here (some are well recognized dealers, many are just members of the site) or you are wrong.

 

Seems a little too one sided and in many cases laced with a high level of arrogance. The intention to be arrogant is probably not there, but it certainly can come off that way when the prevailing opinion is "we know, so trust us when we say: you are wrong."

 

Almost zero middle ground is unfamiliar territory to me. While I may not have as much "experience" as some on here (or maybe I do, it's not like many of you know me personally), life is rarely so black and/or white.

[G.A.tor]

4) Greg Reece (a national dealer) has only seen purchased one raw copy in a year;

 

And just bought a 2nd this week.

he's on fire!

[Prince Namor]

 

Taking this in the spirit I think it was intended, I do agree that the thread has become a little ridiculous. It is either take the opinions of the "more experienced" folks on here (some are well recognized dealers, many are just members of the site) or you are wrong.

 

You mean "many are just members of the site who have been buying and selling comics on a smaller scale for 25-35 years."

 

There are people here who've bought and sold comics, in just PRE-CGC years, for longer than some of the modern collectors on this site have been alive.

 

Seems a little too one sided and in many cases laced with a high level of arrogance. The intention to be arrogant is probably not there, but it certainly can come off that way when the prevailing opinion is "we know, so trust us when we say: you are wrong."

 

It's not just that...

 

It's 'we have a good idea because (see the previous response), as opposed to someone trying to determine it based off of incomplete statistics from 10% of the market, that they BELIEVE is a true reflection of the market.

 

 

 

 

 

[G.A.tor]

 

 

Taking this in the spirit I think it was intended, I do agree that the thread has become a little ridiculous. It is either take the opinions of the "more experienced" folks on here (some are well recognized dealers, many are just members of the site) or you are wrong.

 

Seems a little too one sided and in many cases laced with a high level of arrogance. The intention to be arrogant is probably not there, but it certainly can come off that way when the prevailing opinion is "we know, so trust us when we say: you are wrong."

 

Almost zero middle ground is unfamiliar territory to me. While I may not have as much "experience" as some on here (or maybe I do, it's not like many of you know me personally), life is rarely so black and/or white.

 

I agree that everyone is entitled to their opinion.... bottom line is, some opinions are wrong

 

but in seriousness (which means Im joking again), if we took all the "guesses" and put them on a bell curve, then, as statistical probability dictates, and eliminated the values/guess that fall more than even one standard deviation from the mean, I think we will conclude that "my" answer is the correct one (hehe)

[jimjum12]

Top Ten Things I have learned from this thread (Pardon the necessary paraphrasing and the Letterman homage):

 

1) Nobody actually "knows" anything, and polls are generally meaningless;

 

2) A census with a 15+ year history and millions of submissions is invalid, incorrect, and also meaningless;

 

3) Only "national dealers" are qualified to give opinions;

 

4) Greg Reece (a national dealer) has only seen one raw copy in a year;

 

5) Gator (a quasi-national dealer) only acquired 6 raw copies last year, which is about a 1 out of 4 ratio to the slabbed copies he acquired;

 

6) Neither Roulette44 nor SOT (also dealers, though perhaps not "national") believe there are "thousands and thousands" of raw copies extant;

 

7) The "Vi-Queens" still suck;

 

8) There are currently about 33 slabbed copies for sale on ebay, and 5 raw copies - about a 1 out of 6 ratio;

 

9) Apparently only people who own slabbed copies ever actually sell - the owners of all of the unseen raw copies evidently overwhelmingly have too strong of an emotional connection to either slab or sell their copies (not counting, of course, the 5 people trying to sell theirs on ebay at the moment);

 

10) Everybody knows a guy who knows a guy who knows a guy with several raw copies of AF 15.

 

-J.

 

 

Taking this in the spirit I think it was intended, I do agree that the thread has become a little ridiculous. It is either take the opinions of the "more experienced" folks on here (some are well recognized dealers, many are just members of the site) or you are wrong.

 

Seems a little too one sided and in many cases laced with a high level of arrogance. The intention to be arrogant is probably not there, but it certainly can come off that way when the prevailing opinion is "we know, so trust us when we say: you are wrong."

 

Almost zero middle ground is unfamiliar territory to me. While I may not have as much "experience" as some on here (or maybe I do, it's not like many of you know me personally), life is rarely so black and/or white.

 

One of us made the comment that it had devolved to "arguing about arguing". I'm not going back through all this to attribute it correctly, as that would be too painful... but that's correct. I think if we were to screen the posts for that we would probably find that almost all of us believe:

A) There are still many raw copies tied up in permanent collections.

B) The market for "new to market" copies often go through the CGC machine.

 

.....it almost seems like the debate now is more towards the weight given to Data, which is (arguably ) at an unknown level of incompleteness, and to that given to the experiences of those who were involved in the market for all or part of the 40 odd years before Data was even collected...... which, undeniably, is a period of nearly 3 times the period in which Data was preserved. Newer, more CGC centric collectors claim to know NO one who has a raw copy of AF15, where others who are ( presumably ) older don't know anyone who has a copy that ISN'T raw......excepting of course, if they include members of "The Club"..... whom they don't actually "know" in the traditional sense....and in all honesty, verification that a semi anonymous poster actually "owns" a hosted scanned copy. That being said.... I suppose "arguing about arguing" can be an interesting pastime. slightly higher on the list than being trampled by a herd of water buffalo. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

[gregreece]

4) Greg Reece (a national dealer) has only seen purchased one raw copy in a year;

 

And just bought a 2nd this week.

he's on fire!

 

You are clearly not referencing my hoops game

 

 

[G.A.tor]

4) Greg Reece (a national dealer) has only seen purchased one raw copy in a year;

 

And just bought a 2nd this week.

he's on fire!

 

You are clearly not referencing my hoops game

 

ahh, but it would apply to my last game ...."money"...

[ChasingKingKirby]

I've been collector for 30 years, and I've still probably only seen a small fraction of the books that Gator and Greg have, but I do know that it seems pretty silly to think that the slabbed population of almost any book (With a few exceptions like Action 1, Tec 27 etc.) is representative of the total copies in the wild. I'd be surprised if it's even 10% for most books.

[RockMyAmadeus]

 

Taking this in the spirit I think it was intended, I do agree that the thread has become a little ridiculous. It is either take the opinions of the "more experienced" folks on here (some are well recognized dealers, many are just members of the site) or you are wrong.

 

This isn't true, and hasn't been in the course of this thread.

 

If it hasn't been spelled out before, I'll do it here: there is no right and there is no wrong in situations like this. There is only reasonable, and unreasonable.

 

Each person has to conclude, on their own, whether a particular poster, and what they are posting, is reasonable, or unreasonable. The way that is done is by examining a particular post against their history of posting, to determine if said poster generally knows what he/she is talking about most or all of the time.

 

Does the poster think with their head, or respond emotionally?

 

Does the poster demonstrate reason in laying out a case, or do they disregard it?

 

Does the poster generally have his/her facts straight, or are they often incorrect?

 

Does the poster take the time and effort to make sure their posts are grammatically correct, with proper spelling and syntax? Ah, there's a big one from a little one. If a person "can't be bothered, because it's just a message board", why should anyone then "bother" to take what they have to say seriously? Which is it? If they don't care about it, why should anyone care about what they say? Respect is a two-way street.

 

(To be sure, there's a difference between "lazy" and unaware, and it's usually easy to see which is which.)

 

There are some posters here whose opinions I dismiss out of hand, even if they are correct on a particular issue, because their history of posting demonstrates a certain disregard for fact and reason. There are, of course, people who view me the same way.

 

There are some people whose opinions about certain subjects I consider seriously, and on other subjects I dismiss, because I am aware of their biases.

 

In a case where the absolute truth cannot be known (like this one), it is vital to consider and give weight to the opinions of those with both an established track record of reasonableness, thoughtfulness, and general fastidiousness about their posting, and experience with the topic, and add to that the endorsement of others who you view in the same way (ie, Poster X, whom you trust to know what he's talking about, endorses the opinion of Poster Y, whom you also trust in like manner.)

 

When you add it all up, you can then come to a conclusion about just what is reasonable on a given topic, and what is not.

 

Who are those people? You'll have to decide for yourself.

 

Seems a little too one sided and in many cases laced with a high level of arrogance. The intention to be arrogant is probably not there, but it certainly can come off that way when the prevailing opinion is "we know, so trust us when we say: you are wrong."

 

Yes, confidence is always viewed as arrogance by the unconfident. It has always been this way, and always will be this way. The fault lies not with the confident.

 

Almost zero middle ground is unfamiliar territory to me. While I may not have as much "experience" as some on here (or maybe I do, it's not like many of you know me personally), life is rarely so black and/or white.

 

On a completely unrelated aside, I find it interesting when people say "you don't know me personally" on message boards.

 

No, of course, most people haven't met each other in person, or spent any amount of time around them physically, but if one posts regularly on a message board, is it not a person doing the posting? And isn't their personality reflected in their posts? Yes, absolutely.

 

You can learn quite a lot about a person you have never met, simply through interaction in writing.

 

After all...people used to get married to people they had never met, nor even seen, simply because they discovered each other through correspondence.

 

Who a person is, what they believe, is reflected in what and how they post.

 

I can spend years in the physical presence of someone, and know next to nothing about them, while I can spend a few days/weeks/months with someone on a message board, and know all sorts of things about them.

 

[thunsicker]

4) Greg Reece (a national dealer) has only seen purchased one raw copy in a year;

 

And just bought a 2nd this week.

 

Unbelievable. What are the chances that you would manage to buy both of the copies that are still raw in one year?!? You ARE on fire.

[RockMyAmadeus]

Here's something that will blow some minds...

 

The books can be taken OUT of the slabs.

 

[bluechip]

Here's something that will blow some minds...

 

The books can be taken OUT of the slabs.

 

 

I tell this to people who don't like slabs and sometimes their reaction implies that it would bother them owning the book knowing it once was in a slab.

 

I try to point out that is as bizarre as the idea that a book must be slabbed or considered non-existent. But the argument often falls on ears just as deaf as I encounter among the blue-slab fundamentalist/extremists.

 

 

Edited March 12, 2015 by bluechip