Total Existing Copies of AF #15 2 2

[BarryAllen]

 

Taking this in the spirit I think it was intended, I do agree that the thread has become a little ridiculous. It is either take the opinions of the "more experienced" folks on here (some are well recognized dealers, many are just members of the site) or you are wrong.

 

This isn't true, and hasn't been in the course of this thread.

 

If it hasn't been spelled out before, I'll do it here: there is no right and there is no wrong in situations like this. There is only reasonable, and unreasonable.

 

Each person has to conclude, on their own, whether a particular poster, and what they are posting, is reasonable, or unreasonable. The way that is done is by examining a particular post against their history of posting, to determine if said poster generally knows what he/she is talking about most or all of the time.

 

Does the poster think with their head, or respond emotionally?

 

Does the poster demonstrate reason in laying out a case, or do they disregard it?

 

Does the poster generally have his/her facts straight, or are they often incorrect?

 

Does the poster take the time and effort to make sure their posts are grammatically correct, with proper spelling and syntax? Ah, there's a big one from a little one. If a person "can't be bothered, because it's just a message board", why should anyone then "bother" to take what they have to say seriously? Which is it? If they don't care about it, why should anyone care about what they say? Respect is a two-way street.

 

(To be sure, there's a difference between "lazy" and unaware, and it's usually easy to see which is which.)

 

There are some posters here whose opinions I dismiss out of hand, even if they are correct on a particular issue, because their history of posting demonstrates a certain disregard for fact and reason. There are, of course, people who view me the same way.

 

There are some people whose opinions about certain subjects I consider seriously, and on other subjects I dismiss, because I am aware of their biases.

 

In a case where the absolute truth cannot be known (like this one), it is vital to consider and give weight to the opinions of those with both an established track record of reasonableness, thoughtfulness, and general fastidiousness about their posting, and experience with the topic, and add to that the endorsement of others who you view in the same way (ie, Poster X, whom you trust to know what he's talking about, endorses the opinion of Poster Y, whom you also trust in like manner.)

 

When you add it all up, you can then come to a conclusion about just what is reasonable on a given topic, and what is not.

 

Who are those people? You'll have to decide for yourself.

 

Seems a little too one sided and in many cases laced with a high level of arrogance. The intention to be arrogant is probably not there, but it certainly can come off that way when the prevailing opinion is "we know, so trust us when we say: you are wrong."

 

Yes, confidence is always viewed as arrogance by the unconfident. It has always been this way, and always will be this way. The fault lies not with the confident.

 

Almost zero middle ground is unfamiliar territory to me. While I may not have as much "experience" as some on here (or maybe I do, it's not like many of you know me personally), life is rarely so black and/or white.

 

On a completely unrelated aside, I find it interesting when people say "you don't know me personally" on message boards.

 

No, of course, most people haven't met each other in person, or spent any amount of time around them physically, but if one posts regularly on a message board, is it not a person doing the posting? And isn't their personality reflected in their posts? Yes, absolutely.

 

You can learn quite a lot about a person you have never met, simply through interaction in writing.

 

After all...people used to get married to people they had never met, nor even seen, simply because they discovered each other through correspondence.

 

Who a person is, what they believe, is reflected in what and how they post.

 

I can spend years in the physical presence of someone, and know next to nothing about them, while I can spend a few days/weeks/months with someone on a message board, and know all sorts of things about them.

 

 

Only two thoughts:

1) you say "potatoe" and I say "potato"

2) when you say "the fault lies not with the confident" I shudder. It is extremely important to consider how others will view your statements. If you truly believe what you said about confidence, then I agree with your other statement "You can learn quite a lot about a person you have never met, simply through interaction in writing"

 

[Dick Pontoon]

 

Taking this in the spirit I think it was intended, I do agree that the thread has become a little ridiculous. It is either take the opinions of the "more experienced" folks on here (some are well recognized dealers, many are just members of the site) or you are wrong.

 

You mean "many are just members of the site who have been buying and selling comics on a smaller scale for 25-35 years."

 

There are people here who've bought and sold comics, in just PRE-CGC years, for longer than some of the modern collectors on this site have been alive.

 

 

I've owned my copy of AF #15 for 35 years.

 

[Jeffro.]

Here's something that will blow some minds...

 

The books can be taken OUT of the slabs.

 

 

I tell this to people who don't like slabs and sometimes their reaction implies that it would bother them owning the book knowing it once was in a slab.

 

I try to point out that is as bizarre as the idea that a book must be slabbed or considered non-existent. But the argument often falls on ears just as deaf as I encounter among the blue-slab fundamentalist/extremists.

 

 

From this day forward, this shall be known as the Taint of the Slab, TotS™

[BarryAllen]

 

Taking this in the spirit I think it was intended, I do agree that the thread has become a little ridiculous. It is either take the opinions of the "more experienced" folks on here (some are well recognized dealers, many are just members of the site) or you are wrong.

 

You mean "many are just members of the site who have been buying and selling comics on a smaller scale for 25-35 years."

 

There are people here who've bought and sold comics, in just PRE-CGC years, for longer than some of the modern collectors on this site have been alive.

 

Seems a little too one sided and in many cases laced with a high level of arrogance. The intention to be arrogant is probably not there, but it certainly can come off that way when the prevailing opinion is "we know, so trust us when we say: you are wrong."

 

It's not just that...

 

It's 'we have a good idea because (see the previous response), as opposed to someone trying to determine it based off of incomplete statistics from 10% of the market, that they BELIEVE is a true reflection of the market.

 

 

 

 

 

Fair push, my post was mostly meant to be sarcastic. I am sure the people providing the responses are confident they are correct , but tongue in cheek I was also saying you have to take "their word for it."

 

In all seriousness there are opinions in this thread I trust intrinsically, others not so much. Some I am beginning to trust more - which is a good thing.

[RockMyAmadeus]

Only two thoughts:

1) you say "potatoe" and I say "potato"

2) when you say "the fault lies not with the confident" I shudder. It is extremely important to consider how others will view your statements.

 

Not only is that an impossible task, it is a destructive one, as well.

 

Impossible, because you cannot possibly know, much less account for, how others will view your statements. You have no control whatsoever over what others think about what you have said.

 

Destructive, because if you spend your time worrying about what other people think of you and what you say, you will live in endless fear of saying "the wrong thing."

 

What is extremely important is to speak the truth, at all times, without deception, to yourself or others.

 

High calling, I know. Impossible, even, by our own power.

 

Does that mean you can be callous and cruel, giving no thought whatsoever to other people's feelings? No, of course not; as with everything, moderation is the key. Does that mean you can be careless with your statements, and don't have to strive to be as clear as you can at all times? Of course not; you should always strive for clarity in what you say. As someone once said, don't write so that you can be understood, write so that you cannot be misunderstood.

 

If you do your part, speaking honestly and truthfully and with clarity, you won't be responsible for those who don't, or won't, understand.

 

If you truly believe what you said about confidence, then I agree with your other statement "You can learn quite a lot about a person you have never met, simply through interaction in writing"

 

 

Indeed.

 

People who speak and behave confidently often appear to be arrogant to those who are not confident. The unconfident often wish life to be a matter of "opinion", and "there are no right or wrong answers about anything in life...whatever you think and believe is what is right for you!"

 

Asserting otherwise, that there are things that are things that are absolute, will get you labeled "arrogant."

 

Do you disagree with that...?

 

The key, then, seems to be for the reader to not assume confidence is the same thing as arrogance.

 

[BarryAllen]

Only two thoughts:

1) you say "potatoe" and I say "potato"

2) when you say "the fault lies not with the confident" I shudder. It is extremely important to consider how others will view your statements.

 

Not only is that an impossible task, it is a destructive one, as well.

 

Impossible, because you cannot possibly know, much less account for, how others will view your statements. You have no control whatsoever over what others think about what you have said.

 

Destructive, because if you spend your time worrying about what other people think of you and what you say, you will live in endless fear of saying "the wrong thing."

 

What is extremely important is to speak the truth, at all times, without deception, to yourself or others.

 

High calling, I know. Impossible, even, by our own power.

 

Does that mean you can be callous and cruel, giving no thought whatsoever to other people's feelings? No, of course not; as with everything, moderation is the key. Does that mean you can be careless with your statements, and don't have to strive to be as clear as you can at all times? Of course not; you should always strive for clarity in what you say. As someone once said, don't write so that you can be understood, write so that you cannot be misunderstood.

 

If you do your part, speaking honestly and truthfully and with clarity, you won't be responsible for those who don't, or won't, understand.

 

If you truly believe what you said about confidence, then I agree with your other statement "You can learn quite a lot about a person you have never met, simply through interaction in writing"

 

 

Indeed.

 

People who speak and behave confidently often appear to be arrogant to those who are not confident. The unconfident often wish life to be a matter of "opinion", and "there are no right or wrong answers about anything in life...whatever you think and believe is what is right for you!"

 

Asserting otherwise, that there are things that are things that are absolute, will get you labeled "arrogant."

 

Do you disagree with that...?

 

The key, then, seems to be for the reader to not assume confidence is the same thing as arrogance.

 

I would position it that there is likely more balance than you are eluding. However, when taken to extremes I agree.

 

I also agree confidence and arrogance are not the same, but I do believe they often accompany one another (intended or not). Speaking in absolution (confident or otherwise) also can carry the same stigma and risk. All of this is heightened when the interaction is online, via text, phone or any method other than face to face communication.

 

While I am by no means perfect on any of these, I want to get better and I do care how people view my statements. The unintended consequences of intelligent discourse have been the cause of many unnecessary conflicts. Personally I aim to do better (working on it :shrug: ).

[Prince Namor]

 

Taking this in the spirit I think it was intended, I do agree that the thread has become a little ridiculous. It is either take the opinions of the "more experienced" folks on here (some are well recognized dealers, many are just members of the site) or you are wrong.

 

You mean "many are just members of the site who have been buying and selling comics on a smaller scale for 25-35 years."

 

There are people here who've bought and sold comics, in just PRE-CGC years, for longer than some of the modern collectors on this site have been alive.

 

 

I've owned my copy of AF #15 for 35 years.

 

 

And that would've been a great time to buy it!

[roulette44]

I started by thinking (one of the reasons prompting this thread to even start) that there were less raws than slabbed copies. After reading and listing, I have been convinced that the right answer is more.

 

Jaydog - you quoted me as not believing there are thousands and thousands of raws --- that's not true. I said earlier that the 7-10K figure seemed reasonable, making the ratio of slabbed to raw 3:1-4:1.

 

I actually think the majority here are in some sort of moderate range agreement. maybe it's 6-7K on the low end and 14-17K on the high end?

 

to the poster that referenced the gerber journal - if they estimated 10% of the print run is available for 1961 books and 20% available for 1964 books (I think that's what you said), then I would argue

a) AF15 came out in 1962....so wouldn't the interpolated percentage be more like 13% +/-

b) The ratios shouldn't be quite linear - 10% for 1961 is probably 11.5% for 1962, 15% for 1963 and 20% for 1964 (since the number of people actually collecting

 

Put those two pieces of math together and you get roughly 11.5% of 175,000 or a 19.6K copies......not that far from the high end of the range we all seem to agree with.

 

So i'd say the consensus is not that far apart.....actually.

 

Sorry guys, I know how much you all love avoiding avoiding confrontation! (picked that line up from House, one of my favorite shows of all time!)

[Jaydogrules]

I started by thinking (one of the reasons prompting this thread to even start) that there were less raws than slabbed copies. After reading and listing, I have been convinced that the right answer is more.

 

Jaydog - you quoted me as not believing there are thousands and thousands of raws --- that's not true. I said earlier that the 7-10K figure seemed reasonable, making the ratio of slabbed to raw 3:1-4:1.

 

I actually think the majority here are in some sort of moderate range agreement. maybe it's 6-7K on the low end and 14-17K on the high end?

 

to the poster that referenced the gerber journal - if they estimated 10% of the print run is available for 1961 books and 20% available for 1964 books (I think that's what you said), then I would argue

a) AF15 came out in 1962....so wouldn't the interpolated percentage be more like 13% +/-

b) The ratios shouldn't be quite linear - 10% for 1961 is probably 11.5% for 1962, 15% for 1963 and 20% for 1964 (since the number of people actually collecting

 

Put those two pieces of math together and you get roughly 11.5% of 175,000 or a 19.6K copies......not that far from the high end of the range we all seem to agree with.

 

So i'd say the consensus is not that far apart.....actually.

 

Sorry guys, I know how much you all love avoiding avoiding confrontation! (picked that line up from House, one of my favorite shows of all time!)

 

Joey I was simply paraphrasing you, as even my estimate of 3-5k would still technically be "thousands and thousands" but certainly not on the level of 20k which I believe to be pie in the sky.

 

To address one of your points and another rfoii brought up earlier...let's look at what we see at any given moment on the market. The ratio of slab to raw is in fact the exact inverse of what many are claiming they believe the ratio to be. If there were 20k raw copies still out there that would be a 10:1 ratio, and there would be (should be) at least some semblance of that in the market, and yet there is not and never is. Not even close.

 

Are people seriously saying with a straight face that the "only" time people slab a book is to sell? And that that is the "only" reason we almost exclusively see slabbed copies for sale? Geesh talk about abject speculation. Because no, the only people selling copies are not the owners of slabbed copies. There are raw copies hitting the market all the time. They don't hit often, but they do. Could that possibly be because there are far fewer than 20,000 of them out there? Hmmmm... And as I pointed out earlier, only about 1 in six copies available on the market right now is raw. Am I saying that this means 84% of copies are slabbed? No that's not what I'm saying. But guess what? It's just as likely that at least half have been slabbed at some point as it is that there are 20k still raw. It's also very likely that a significant number of copies have been cracked out and re-circulated and perhaps even re-slabbed.

 

The notion that people are only hoarding raw copies is also nonsense. And wouldn't it be just as likely that people would also hoard slabbed copies? And in comparable ratios? Yes it would be. And yet we see plenty of slabs for sale all the time. The fact of the matter is, regardless of what speculation a person can divine based on anecdotes, and how many copies they might have seen at one point in their lives, no one knows what became of those copies, where they are now, or if they even still exist. All we "know" is what we all can see (and have seen) on the market. And I posit that at any given time we will be lucky to see more than a handful of available raw copies at any given moment, and, as a relatively small percentage of the slabbed copies available at the same time, not because they are "rare", but because a very significant percentage of them have been slabbed. My 2 cents.

 

-J.

 

 

[jimjum12]

I started by thinking (one of the reasons prompting this thread to even start) that there were less raws than slabbed copies. After reading and listing, I have been convinced that the right answer is more.

 

Jaydog - you quoted me as not believing there are thousands and thousands of raws --- that's not true. I said earlier that the 7-10K figure seemed reasonable, making the ratio of slabbed to raw 3:1-4:1.

 

I actually think the majority here are in some sort of moderate range agreement. maybe it's 6-7K on the low end and 14-17K on the high end?

 

to the poster that referenced the gerber journal - if they estimated 10% of the print run is available for 1961 books and 20% available for 1964 books (I think that's what you said), then I would argue

a) AF15 came out in 1962....so wouldn't the interpolated percentage be more like 13% +/-

b) The ratios shouldn't be quite linear - 10% for 1961 is probably 11.5% for 1962, 15% for 1963 and 20% for 1964 (since the number of people actually collecting

 

Put those two pieces of math together and you get roughly 11.5% of 175,000 or a 19.6K copies......not that far from the high end of the range we all seem to agree with.

 

So i'd say the consensus is not that far apart.....actually.

 

Sorry guys, I know how much you all love avoiding avoiding confrontation! (picked that line up from House, one of my favorite shows of all time!)

 

Joey I was simply paraphrasing you, as even my estimate of 3-5k would still technically be "thousands and thousands" but certainly not on the level of 20k which I believe to be pie in the sky.

 

To address one of your points and another rfoii brought up earlier...let's look at what we see at any given moment on the market. The ratio of slab to raw is in fact the exact inverse of what many are claiming they believe the ratio to be. If there were 20k raw copies still out there that would be a 10:1 ratio, and there would be (should be) at least some semblance of that in the market, and yet there is not and never is. Not even close.

 

Are people seriously saying with a straight face that the "only" time people slab a book is to sell? And that that is the "only" reason we almost exclusively see slabbed copies for sale? Geesh talk about abject speculation. Because no, the only people selling copies are not the owners of slabbed copies. There are raw copies hitting the market all the time. They don't hit often, but they do. Could that possibly be because there are far fewer than 20,000 of them out there? Hmmmm... And as I pointed out earlier, only about 1 in six copies available on the market right now is raw. Am I saying that this means 84% of copies are slabbed? No that's not what I'm saying. But guess what? It's just as likely that at least half have been slabbed at some point as it is that there are 20k still raw. It's also very likely that a significant number of copies have been cracked out and re-circulated and perhaps even re-slabbed.

 

The notion that people are only hoarding raw copies is also nonsense. And wouldn't it be just as likely that people would also hoard slabbed copies? And in comparable ratios? Yes it would be. And yet we see plenty of slabs for sale all the time. The fact of the matter is, regardless of what speculation a person can divine based on anecdotes, and how many copies they might have seen at one point in their lives, no one knows what became of those copies, where they are now, or if they even still exist. All we "know" is what we all can see (and have seen) on the market. And I posit that at any given time we will be lucky to see more than a handful of available raw copies at any given moment, and, as a relatively small percentage of the slabbed copies available at the same time, not because they are "rare", but because a very significant percentage of them have been slabbed. My 2 cents.

 

-J.

 

 

....that's where you're wrong, bro. All YOU see is what's on the market. I can take a drive North, South, East, or West and see raw AF 15's...... Just. In. This. Area....... Today. And yes.....as has been mentioned by numerous people in this thread...... MANY people do not slab until they sell. So when you look at books for sale in the open market for pricier books..... of course it is slabbed copies that you find. To assume, as you have, that someone who has kept a book raw all these years will not slab when the time comes to sell is very illogical and very lazy thinking for someone as sharp as you are. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

...slabbing for protection, I get it....... but my Safety Deposit box is pretty good at that also.......

[ChasingKingKirby]

I started by thinking (one of the reasons prompting this thread to even start) that there were less raws than slabbed copies. After reading and listing, I have been convinced that the right answer is more.

 

Jaydog - you quoted me as not believing there are thousands and thousands of raws --- that's not true. I said earlier that the 7-10K figure seemed reasonable, making the ratio of slabbed to raw 3:1-4:1.

 

I actually think the majority here are in some sort of moderate range agreement. maybe it's 6-7K on the low end and 14-17K on the high end?

 

to the poster that referenced the gerber journal - if they estimated 10% of the print run is available for 1961 books and 20% available for 1964 books (I think that's what you said), then I would argue

a) AF15 came out in 1962....so wouldn't the interpolated percentage be more like 13% +/-

b) The ratios shouldn't be quite linear - 10% for 1961 is probably 11.5% for 1962, 15% for 1963 and 20% for 1964 (since the number of people actually collecting

 

Put those two pieces of math together and you get roughly 11.5% of 175,000 or a 19.6K copies......not that far from the high end of the range we all seem to agree with.

 

So i'd say the consensus is not that far apart.....actually.

 

Sorry guys, I know how much you all love avoiding avoiding confrontation! (picked that line up from House, one of my favorite shows of all time!)

 

Joey I was simply paraphrasing you, as even my estimate of 3-5k would still technically be "thousands and thousands" but certainly not on the level of 20k which I believe to be pie in the sky.

 

To address one of your points and another rfoii brought up earlier...let's look at what we see at any given moment on the market. The ratio of slab to raw is in fact the exact inverse of what many are claiming they believe the ratio to be. If there were 20k raw copies still out there that would be a 10:1 ratio, and there would be (should be) at least some semblance of that in the market, and yet there is not and never is. Not even close.

 

Are people seriously saying with a straight face that the "only" time people slab a book is to sell? And that that is the "only" reason we almost exclusively see slabbed copies for sale? Geesh talk about abject speculation. Because no, the only people selling copies are not the owners of slabbed copies. There are raw copies hitting the market all the time. They don't hit often, but they do. Could that possibly be because there are far fewer than 20,000 of them out there? Hmmmm... And as I pointed out earlier, only about 1 in six copies available on the market right now is raw. Am I saying that this means 84% of copies are slabbed? No that's not what I'm saying. But guess what? It's just as likely that at least half have been slabbed at some point as it is that there are 20k still raw. It's also very likely that a significant number of copies have been cracked out and re-circulated and perhaps even re-slabbed.

 

The notion that people are only hoarding raw copies is also nonsense. And wouldn't it be just as likely that people would also hoard slabbed copies? And in comparable ratios? Yes it would be. And yet we see plenty of slabs for sale all the time. The fact of the matter is, regardless of what speculation a person can divine based on anecdotes, and how many copies they might have seen at one point in their lives, no one knows what became of those copies, where they are now, or if they even still exist. All we "know" is what we all can see (and have seen) on the market. And I posit that at any given time we will be lucky to see more than a handful of available raw copies at any given moment, and, as a relatively small percentage of the slabbed copies available at the same time, not because they are "rare", but because a very significant percentage of them have been slabbed. My 2 cents.

 

-J.

 

 

....that's where you're wrong, bro. All YOU see is what's on the market. I can take a drive North, South, East, or West and see raw AF 15's...... Just. In. This. Area....... Today. And yes.....as has been mentioned by numerous people in this thread...... MANY people do not slab until they sell. So when you look at books for sale in the open market for pricier books..... of course it is slabbed copies that you find. To assume, as you have, that someone who has kept a book raw all these years will not slab when the time comes to sell is very illogical and very lazy thinking for someone as sharp as you are. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

...slabbing for protection, I get it....... but my Safety Deposit box is pretty good at that also.......

 

Totally agree with Jim on this. Not everyone I know has an AF15, but a LOT of people I know do. I think there are thousands of collectors out there with AF15s, that a) don't care about slabbing b) don't care about these boards. c) don't care about selling.

 

No one "knows" how many are in the wild, but it is readily available even now for the right price. I truly think at least 10% are still around. Meaning somewhere in the neighborhood of 20K.

[G.A.tor]

20K feels high, at least to me, and to every dealer I've spoken too...

 

most everyone seems to generally be in agreement that 7500-10K "feels" right....and by feels, it's based on years of selling and buying and depth of customer bases, and conventions etc...

 

to address what is in the market, it makes perfect sense that the majority for sale would be slabbed...from both a seller and buyer perspective...

as I mentioned in an earlier post, less than 10 years ago, dealers like Metro and Graham cracker and Joe V, etc etc had rows of raw af15's to every slabbed for sale...its about the opposite today, though there are still raws found at every show...

 

as cgc has become more associated in the higher end market (how many times has someone offered a raw af15 for sale, and the first words out of most everyone's mouth is, "that should be cgc'd", or "you should slab that"....

 

it makes sense....it offers a level of protection for buyer and seller against restoration, grade, value, etc...

 

now, many of the raws that are sold, are sold to dealers, because in general, most are able to spot resto, grade, etc, and dealers have a presence whether at a con, or a brick and mortar store, etc...and many times, these dealers have an established relationship of some degree with the seller

 

.... and every year we see 50 or 70 or however many "new" slabs enter the market....that's a pace that will likely continue at current rate, and maybe increase 5-10 years down the road, and many longer time collectors finally decide to "cash out"...

 

it seems pretty straight forward and logical to me, but then again I'm emersed in this hobby 7 days a week, 52 weeks a year....

 

 

[ChasingKingKirby]

20K feels high, at least to me, and to every dealer I've spoken too...

 

most everyone seems to generally be in agreement that 7500-10K "feels" right....and by feels, it's based on years of selling and buying and depth of customer bases, and conventions etc...

 

to address what is in the market, it makes perfect sense that the majority for sale would be slabbed...from both a seller and buyer perspective...

as I mentioned in an earlier post, less than 10 years ago, dealers like Metro and Graham cracker and Joe V, etc etc had rows of raw af15's to every slabbed for sale...its about the opposite today, though there are still raws found at every show...

 

as cgc has become more associated in the higher end market (how many times has someone offered a raw af15 for sale, and the first words out of most everyone's mouth is, "that should be cgc'd", or "you should slab that"....

 

it makes sense....it offers a level of protection for buyer and seller against restoration, grade, value, etc...

 

now, many of the raws that are sold, are sold to dealers, because in general, most are able to spot resto, grade, etc, and dealers have a presence whether at a con, or a brick and mortar store, etc...and many times, these dealers have an established relationship of some degree with the seller

 

.... and every year we see 50 or 70 or however many "new" slabs enter the market....that's a pace that will likely continue at current rate, and maybe increase 5-10 years down the road, and many longer time collectors finally decide to "cash out"...

 

it seems pretty straight forward and logical to me, but then again I'm emersed in this hobby 7 days a week, 52 weeks a year....

 

 

You certainly have your finger on the pulse of the collecting community more than I do, but I just feel it's difficult to reconcile that there would only be roughly 5% of the print run left in existence for a 1960s book. Collecting was ramping up at that point. Just doesn't feel right logically, but that's just my "gut" feeling.

[Hamlet]

You just don't seem to get that the books on the market to sell are not going to be representative of the books in collections, because people will very likely slab an AF15 to sell it, but probably won't slab it just to slab it. There is a strong financial incentive to slab when you sell. It's also pretty much the only way you sell via the auction houses and E-bay, which is were most of the visible copies are. You're looking at the number of home inspections each year and trying to extrapolate that to the number of existing homes. If you looked at houses that have recently sold, and checked if they had a home inspection recently, they almost all would have. Would you then conclude that most homes have recently been inspected? You're ignoring the huge selection bias towards slabbing that comes when someone wants to sell their AF15.

 

Yes, some people will also slab a book for other reasons, but most old-time collectors are unlikely to. It's expensive and prevents them from physically handling their books. I've never slabbed a book. It would seem silly to do so unless I wanted to sell it. I suspect that is true of the majority of comic collectors older than say 40 or so. Probably not the majority of people on this site though.

 

I think that you're also complete discounting the lapsed collector. There are a ton of people who put together nice collections in the 70s, 80s, and 90s, got interested in other things, and just thru their longboxes in a closet. I left the hobby for 15 years, and only got back in because a friend of mine that I collected with in the 80s and lost touch with looked me up and got me interested in it again. My collection was just sitting in a closet for all that time. I wasn't going to sell it, but I wasn't doing anything with it. If I hadn't reconnected with that friend, they would still be collecting dust in my closet.

 

Those books are invisible to the census, and they are out there in very large numbers. I was a young collector with little money in the 80s. I could not afford an AF15. However, the collectors who were 10-20 years older than me could. Many of them completed their collections, and dropped out of active collecting in the 90s when everything fell apart. Like me though, I would suspect that an awful lot of them didn't sell their collections, they just put them in their closet.

 

You are interacting with people who like to buy and sell comics on this board, but many collectors don't enjoy selling. They buy, but even when they've lost interest, they don't necessarily sell. I suspect that the number of collections currently sitting in the closets of lapsed collectors who are 50-70 years old is a massive number. I can't think of any way to figure out how many there are. There are no statistics to measure them, but they are there, all the same.

 

 

Joey I was simply paraphrasing you, as even my estimate of 3-5k would still technically be "thousands and thousands" but certainly not on the level of 20k which I believe to be pie in the sky.

 

To address one of your points and another rfoii brought up earlier...let's look at what we see at any given moment on the market. The ratio of slab to raw is in fact the exact inverse of what many are claiming they believe the ratio to be. If there were 20k raw copies still out there that would be a 10:1 ratio, and there would be (should be) at least some semblance of that in the market, and yet there is not and never is. Not even close.

 

Are people seriously saying with a straight face that the "only" time people slab a book is to sell? And that that is the "only" reason we almost exclusively see slabbed copies for sale? Geesh talk about abject speculation. Because no, the only people selling copies are not the owners of slabbed copies. There are raw copies hitting the market all the time. They don't hit often, but they do. Could that possibly be because there are far fewer than 20,000 of them out there? Hmmmm... And as I pointed out earlier, only about 1 in six copies available on the market right now is raw. Am I saying that this means 84% of copies are slabbed? No that's not what I'm saying. But guess what? It's just as likely that at least half have been slabbed at some point as it is that there are 20k still raw. It's also very likely that a significant number of copies have been cracked out and re-circulated and perhaps even re-slabbed.

 

The notion that people are only hoarding raw copies is also nonsense. And wouldn't it be just as likely that people would also hoard slabbed copies? And in comparable ratios? Yes it would be. And yet we see plenty of slabs for sale all the time. The fact of the matter is, regardless of what speculation a person can divine based on anecdotes, and how many copies they might have seen at one point in their lives, no one knows what became of those copies, where they are now, or if they even still exist. All we "know" is what we all can see (and have seen) on the market. And I posit that at any given time we will be lucky to see more than a handful of available raw copies at any given moment, and, as a relatively small percentage of the slabbed copies available at the same time, not because they are "rare", but because a very significant percentage of them have been slabbed. My 2 cents.

 

-J.

 

[G.A.tor]

 

You certainly have your finger on the pulse of the collecting community more than I do, but I just feel it's difficult to reconcile that there would only be roughly 5% of the print run left in existence for a 1960s book. Collecting was ramping up at that point. Just doesn't feel right logically, but that's just my "gut" feeling.

 

there certainly could be 20K....I'm just reporting what every major dealer I've spoken to seem to think (myself included)...

 

Joe V told me , at one point, sparkle city had, what must have been 500 copies of af15 in their inventory (must have been in the 70's?)...

 

so 10% could be out there...but keep in mind, collecting really surged around 1965 or so, so there was a small window where comics might have been lost/disposed of at a higher rate....

 

but, who knows...about the only conclusion that can be drawn is that there are a "lot" of af15's in the wild....but how many, we will never know with any real confidence...

[jimjum12]

I've spoken with several guys, and some have even gone on record as citing Avengers 4 as bringing them back into the hobby out of curiousity of seeing an old childhood fave on the cover. I'm sure it's not just coincidence that readership started increasing around then, with more older readers rediscovering the medium and being impressed by Stan's crazy melodramas. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

P.S. I've seen the Circulation Statements in several books from '62.....mostly Fantasy titles like AF was..... and the figures range from 135,000 to 165,000 .... and these were the titles that WEREN'T cancelled..... by 1965, the numbers had doubled....

[ChasingKingKirby]

 

You certainly have your finger on the pulse of the collecting community more than I do, but I just feel it's difficult to reconcile that there would only be roughly 5% of the print run left in existence for a 1960s book. Collecting was ramping up at that point. Just doesn't feel right logically, but that's just my "gut" feeling.

 

there certainly could be 20K....I'm just reporting what every major dealer I've spoken to seem to think (myself included)...

 

Joe V told me , at one point, sparkle city had, what must have been 500 copies of af15 in their inventory (must have been in the 70's?)...

 

so 10% could be out there...but keep in mind, collecting really surged around 1965 or so, so there was a small window where comics might have been lost/disposed of at a higher rate....

 

but, who knows...about the only conclusion that can be drawn is that there are a "lot" of af15's in the wild....but how many, we will never know with any real confidence...

 

It's true, we'll never know for sure, but it is fun to speculate.

 

This thread has been so popular, maybe we should do similar threads for some of my GA Faves like All Select 1. The census number on that is only 80 copies.

[Prince Namor]

I started by thinking (one of the reasons prompting this thread to even start) that there were less raws than slabbed copies. After reading and listing, I have been convinced that the right answer is more.

 

Jaydog - you quoted me as not believing there are thousands and thousands of raws --- that's not true. I said earlier that the 7-10K figure seemed reasonable, making the ratio of slabbed to raw 3:1-4:1.

 

I actually think the majority here are in some sort of moderate range agreement. maybe it's 6-7K on the low end and 14-17K on the high end?

 

to the poster that referenced the gerber journal - if they estimated 10% of the print run is available for 1961 books and 20% available for 1964 books (I think that's what you said), then I would argue

a) AF15 came out in 1962....so wouldn't the interpolated percentage be more like 13% +/-

b) The ratios shouldn't be quite linear - 10% for 1961 is probably 11.5% for 1962, 15% for 1963 and 20% for 1964 (since the number of people actually collecting

 

Put those two pieces of math together and you get roughly 11.5% of 175,000 or a 19.6K copies......not that far from the high end of the range we all seem to agree with.

 

So i'd say the consensus is not that far apart.....actually.

 

Sorry guys, I know how much you all love avoiding avoiding confrontation! (picked that line up from House, one of my favorite shows of all time!)

 

Joey I was simply paraphrasing you, as even my estimate of 3-5k would still technically be "thousands and thousands" but certainly not on the level of 20k which I believe to be pie in the sky.

 

To address one of your points and another rfoii brought up earlier...let's look at what we see at any given moment on the market. The ratio of slab to raw is in fact the exact inverse of what many are claiming they believe the ratio to be. If there were 20k raw copies still out there that would be a 10:1 ratio, and there would be (should be) at least some semblance of that in the market, and yet there is not and never is. Not even close.

 

Are people seriously saying with a straight face that the "only" time people slab a book is to sell? And that that is the "only" reason we almost exclusively see slabbed copies for sale? Geesh talk about abject speculation. Because no, the only people selling copies are not the owners of slabbed copies. There are raw copies hitting the market all the time. They don't hit often, but they do. Could that possibly be because there are far fewer than 20,000 of them out there? Hmmmm... And as I pointed out earlier, only about 1 in six copies available on the market right now is raw. Am I saying that this means 84% of copies are slabbed? No that's not what I'm saying. But guess what? It's just as likely that at least half have been slabbed at some point as it is that there are 20k still raw. It's also very likely that a significant number of copies have been cracked out and re-circulated and perhaps even re-slabbed.

 

The notion that people are only hoarding raw copies is also nonsense. And wouldn't it be just as likely that people would also hoard slabbed copies? And in comparable ratios? Yes it would be. And yet we see plenty of slabs for sale all the time. The fact of the matter is, regardless of what speculation a person can divine based on anecdotes, and how many copies they might have seen at one point in their lives, no one knows what became of those copies, where they are now, or if they even still exist. All we "know" is what we all can see (and have seen) on the market. And I posit that at any given time we will be lucky to see more than a handful of available raw copies at any given moment, and, as a relatively small percentage of the slabbed copies available at the same time, not because they are "rare", but because a very significant percentage of them have been slabbed. My 2 cents.

 

-J.

 

 

....that's where you're wrong, bro. All YOU see is what's on the market. I can take a drive North, South, East, or West and see raw AF 15's...... Just. In. This. Area....... Today. And yes.....as has been mentioned by numerous people in this thread...... MANY people do not slab until they sell. So when you look at books for sale in the open market for pricier books..... of course it is slabbed copies that you find. To assume, as you have, that someone who has kept a book raw all these years will not slab when the time comes to sell is very illogical and very lazy thinking for someone as sharp as you are. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

...slabbing for protection, I get it....... but my Safety Deposit box is pretty good at that also.......

 

He's using the same kind of flawed logic that Frederic Wertham did.... all of these juvenile delinquents are reading comics... thus comics must cause juvenile deliquency!

[Jaydogrules]

20K feels high, at least to me, and to every dealer I've spoken too...

 

most everyone seems to generally be in agreement that 7500-10K "feels" right....and by feels, it's based on years of selling and buying and depth of customer bases, and conventions etc...

 

to address what is in the market, it makes perfect sense that the majority for sale would be slabbed...from both a seller and buyer perspective...

as I mentioned in an earlier post, less than 10 years ago, dealers like Metro and Graham cracker and Joe V, etc etc had rows of raw af15's to every slabbed for sale...its about the opposite today, though there are still raws found at every show...

 

as cgc has become more associated in the higher end market (how many times has someone offered a raw af15 for sale, and the first words out of most everyone's mouth is, "that should be cgc'd", or "you should slab that"....

 

it makes sense....it offers a level of protection for buyer and seller against restoration, grade, value, etc...

 

now, many of the raws that are sold, are sold to dealers, because in general, most are able to spot resto, grade, etc, and dealers have a presence whether at a con, or a brick and mortar store, etc...and many times, these dealers have an established relationship of some degree with the seller

 

.... and every year we see 50 or 70 or however many "new" slabs enter the market....that's a pace that will likely continue at current rate, and maybe increase 5-10 years down the road, and many longer time collectors finally decide to "cash out"...

 

it seems pretty straight forward and logical to me, but then again I'm emersed in this hobby 7 days a week, 52 weeks a year....

 

 

Probably about one of the best, well reasoned, clear cut and factually supported answers as you could hope to get on the subject from someone in an uniquely informed position to respond. And it only took 40 pages.

 

-J.

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

20K feels high, at least to me, and to every dealer I've spoken too...

 

most everyone seems to generally be in agreement that 7500-10K "feels" right....and by feels, it's based on years of selling and buying and depth of customer bases, and conventions etc...

 

to address what is in the market, it makes perfect sense that the majority for sale would be slabbed...from both a seller and buyer perspective...

as I mentioned in an earlier post, less than 10 years ago, dealers like Metro and Graham cracker and Joe V, etc etc had rows of raw af15's to every slabbed for sale...its about the opposite today, though there are still raws found at every show...

 

as cgc has become more associated in the higher end market (how many times has someone offered a raw af15 for sale, and the first words out of most everyone's mouth is, "that should be cgc'd", or "you should slab that"....

 

it makes sense....it offers a level of protection for buyer and seller against restoration, grade, value, etc...

 

now, many of the raws that are sold, are sold to dealers, because in general, most are able to spot resto, grade, etc, and dealers have a presence whether at a con, or a brick and mortar store, etc...and many times, these dealers have an established relationship of some degree with the seller

 

.... and every year we see 50 or 70 or however many "new" slabs enter the market....that's a pace that will likely continue at current rate, and maybe increase 5-10 years down the road, and many longer time collectors finally decide to "cash out"...

 

it seems pretty straight forward and logical to me, but then again I'm emersed in this hobby 7 days a week, 52 weeks a year....

 

 

Probably about one of the best, well reasoned, clear cut and factually supported answers as you could hope to get on the subject from someone in an uniquely informed position to respond. And it only took 40 pages.

 

-J.

 

This is exactly what everyone has been saying for those 40 pages.

 

You just weren't listening.