MOST VALUABLE MODERN VARIANTS - THE RANKINGS 17 17

[valiantman]

On 3/3/2023 at 11:04 AM, Jaydogrules said:

Incorrect. This list is weighted and has become increasingly more so as these books have aged and more sales have occurred.  Which is why the top 10 has remained virtually unchanged for years and I ultimately decided to double it to make it more interesting and relevant.  

-J.

So, you don't want to show the current rankings, you want to show historical rankings as if they're still current rankings by ignoring the current sales that don't match what you personally own, but you don't like historical sales for books that you don't own, like the Ultimate Spider-Man #1 Pichelli Sketch Variant.

Got it.

Edited March 3, 2023 by valiantman

[Archaeos]

I don’t own either of them but sure looks like UF4 is new top one, in sales you always go with the last sale it’s how markets move up and down.

Also UF4 isn’t just the first appearance of Miles it’s the big one but it has the alternative version of Reed Richard’s (maker) and ultimate invasion is the next big event involving reed Richard’s alternative versions. Could be something else to attract interest in the book. That’s the thing with 667 it’s a rare book but what else? 

[Jaydogrules]

On 3/3/2023 at 9:08 AM, valiantman said:

So, you don't want to show the current rankings, you want to show historical rankings as if they're still current rankings by ignoring the current sales that don't match what you personally own, but you don't like historical sales for books that you don't own, like the Ultimate Spider-Man #1 Pichelli Sketch Variant.

Got it.

First, you don't know what books I do or do not own.  Second, yes, the data is weighted.  The list is the Most Valuable Modern Variants, it's not a "hot 10 of the week or last auction result".  If I did what you propose, the next UF 4 sale to go below 30K , automatically makes the 667 #1 again ?

No.

And I reiterate- these books do not only sell in a 9.8.  An 8.0 dell'otto has gone for nearly as much as the uf 4 does in a 9.6.   Data. 

-J.

[GeeksAreMyPeeps]

On 3/3/2023 at 12:22 PM, Archaeos said:

I don’t own either of them but sure looks like UF4 is new top one, in sales you always go with the last sale it’s how markets move up and down.

Also UF4 isn’t just the first appearance of Miles it’s the big one but it has the alternative version of Reed Richard’s (maker) and ultimate invasion is the next big event involving reed Richard’s alternative versions. Could be something else to attract interest in the book. That’s the thing with 667 it’s a rare book but what else? 

I'm in the same boat. I don't own either book and am not looking to buy either book. But if I was, I would be looking for a UF4, because it's got a much bigger upside.

Generally, I can understand being a little wary of just looking at the last sale to determine a value, because sometimes there are outlier sales, and maybe there just aren't a lot of eyes on some sales. But these are both very visible books, and we have two instances of pretty much the perfect comparison of the books; sales in the same grade closing very near to each other on the same selling platform. And in both cases, UF4 is on top. And the comparable recent average shows UF4 is on top. If you want to go with something like a 5-year moving average, then I guess 667 wins out, but honestly who is going to care about that, except someone with an agenda to make a particular book the winner?

[valiantman]

On 3/3/2023 at 11:29 AM, Jaydogrules said:

First, you don't know what books I do or do not own.  Second, yes, the data is weighted.  The list is the Most Valuable Modern Variants, it's not a "hot 10 of the week or last auction result".  If I did what you propose, the next UF 4 sale to go below 30K , automatically makes the 667 #1 again ?

No.

And I reiterate- these books do not only sell in a 9.8.  An 8.0 dell'otto has gone for nearly as much as the uf 4 does in a 9.6.   Data. 

-J.

No fuss, no muss.

Data.

Edited March 3, 2023 by valiantman

[Jaydogrules]

On 3/3/2023 at 9:30 AM, GeeksAreMyPeeps said:

I'm in the same boat. I don't own either book and am not looking to buy either book. But if I was, I would be looking for a UF4, because it's got a much bigger upside.

Generally, I can understand being a little wary of just looking at the last sale to determine a value, because sometimes there are outlier sales, and maybe there just aren't a lot of eyes on some sales. But these are both very visible books, and we have two instances of pretty much the perfect comparison of the books; sales in the same grade closing very near to each other on the same selling platform. And in both cases, UF4 is on top. And the comparable recent average shows UF4 is on top. If you want to go with something like a 5-year moving average, then I guess 667 wins out, but honestly who is going to care about that, except someone with an agenda to make a particular book the winner?

Some of your points are exactly why I use weighted data.
But as to the heritage auction, there were actually two uf 4 9.8's in that auction- one came in above the 667, the other well below, so that's a wash.  Which leaves us with just this one comiclink auction, and sorry that one data point is not near enough, especially with the multiple other copies of the uf4 at or coming to auction, and with many more likely to come out in thr next few months as people cash out on the cartoon.  

-J.

[GeeksAreMyPeeps]

On 3/3/2023 at 12:38 PM, Jaydogrules said:

Some of your points are exactly why I use weighted data.
But as to the heritage auction, there were actually two uf 4 9.8's in that auction- one came in above the 667, the other well below, so that's a wash.  Which leaves us with just this one comiclink auction, and sorry that one data point is not near enough, especially with the multiple other copies of the uf4 at or coming to auction, and with many more likely to come out in thr next few months as people cash out on the cartoon.  

-J.

The other UF4 was a SS, and there was not a comparable SS of 667, so it's not a wash, unless you're looking to make it wash to prop up 667.

[GeeksAreMyPeeps]

On 3/3/2023 at 12:38 PM, Jaydogrules said:

Some of your points are Backing up my pre-determined outcome is exactly why I use weighted data.

-J.

Fixed that for you

[Jaydogrules]

On 3/3/2023 at 9:39 AM, GeeksAreMyPeeps said:

The other UF4 was a SS, and there was not a comparable SS of 667, so it's not a wash, unless you're looking to make it wash to prop up 667.

I refer you back to page 1 of this thread of the criteria I use for this list that considers ALL label types.  And usually signed copies go for more and certainly not 10k below blue copies. The yellow label was actually more in line with what the book has sold for now twice on comiclink making that weirdly high 43k sale on heritage look like the outlier. 

-J.

[GeeksAreMyPeeps]

On 3/3/2023 at 12:42 PM, Jaydogrules said:

I refer you back to page 1 of this thread of the criteria I use for this list that considers ALL label types.  And usually signed copies go for more and certainly not 10k below blue copies. The yellow label was actually more in line with what the book has sold for now twice on comiclink making that weirdly high 43k sale on heritage look like the outlier. 

-J.

The key there being "usually"; I can see why someone dropping 5 figures on a book wants it in the original condition, not autographed. I will note as well that an SS Dell'Otto variant, which sold at the height of the comic market in 9.6, also sold for less than a Universal 9.6 prior to the height of the market. Using data from all label types is fine, but if you're comparing different comics with different labels, that's not a fair comparison. That's comparing apples to oranges. That's manipulating the data to support a pre-determined conclusion.

[Jaydogrules]

On 3/3/2023 at 10:12 AM, GeeksAreMyPeeps said:

The key there being "usually"; I can see why someone dropping 5 figures on a book wants it in the original condition, not autographed. I will note as well that an SS Dell'Otto variant, which sold at the height of the comic market in 9.6, also sold for less than a Universal 9.6 prior to the height of the market. Using data from all label types is fine, but if you're comparing different comics with different labels, that's not a fair comparison. That's comparing apples to oranges. That's manipulating the data to support a pre-determined conclusion.

I'm comparing GRADES irrespective of label color and have been doing same since 2016 to no prior objection from you or anyone else.  

Not doing so now would in fact be "manipulating data to support a pre-determined conclusion".  

-J.

[valiantman]

[valiantman]

Come on guys, Jaydogrules has repeatedly pointed out how he's just using the data available and not forcing the results to match some pre-determined conclusion that he's pushing despite the evidence.

That would be ridiculously hypocritical and make this whole topic as meaningless as his claims of impartiality.

 

On 11/28/2022 at 8:06 PM, Jaydogrules said:

ASM 667 will always be king.

[Jaydogrules]

On 3/3/2023 at 11:07 AM, valiantman said:

Come on guys, Jaydogrules has repeatedly pointed out how he's just using the data available and not forcing the results to match some pre-determined conclusion that he's pushing despite the evidence.

 

That would be ridiculously hypocritical and make this whole topic as meaningless as his claims of 

 

 

Duh. I'm allowed to state my opinions on the data and historical trends. 🙄

-J.

Edited March 3, 2023 by Jaydogrules

[CGC Mike]

On 3/3/2023 at 2:19 PM, Jaydogrules said:

On 3/3/2023 at 2:07 PM, valiantman said:

Come on guys, Jaydogrules has repeatedly pointed out how he's just using the data available and not forcing the results to match some pre-determined conclusion that he's pushing despite the evidence.

 

That would be ridiculously hypocritical and make this whole topic as meaningless as his claims of 

 

 

Duh. I'm allowed to state my opinions on the data and historical trends. 🙄

-J.

I recommend you both ignore each other.  Otherwise, I will have to take action in the form of banning from topic, points added to accounts or both.  This will be the only free warning.

[valiantman]

[Jaydogrules]

 

And the record is 4-2 Dell'otto in 9.8 and a clean sweep in all lower grades and on raw copy sales.

 

That's all that needs to be said on the matter.  

 

-J.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Lockford88]

Well, I finally got around to grading my 667. It has some problems on the back corner that are visible, but I was holding out hope for an 8.0-8.5. I wasn’t far off and am satisfied with it overall. 

[ADAMANTIUM]

On 3/7/2023 at 8:11 AM, Lockford88 said:

Well, I finally got around to grading my 667. It has some problems on the back corner that are visible, but I was holding out hope for an 8.0-8.5. I wasn’t far off and am satisfied with it overall. 

 good news! Regardless, in the possession, at least the presence of mind to obtain it. Happy that worked out for you  

[Jaydogrules]

On 3/7/2023 at 6:11 AM, Lockford88 said:

Well, I finally got around to grading my 667. It has some problems on the back corner that are visible, but I was holding out hope for an 8.0-8.5. I wasn’t far off and am satisfied with it overall. 

Nice !  I saw that when it hit the census.  Many copies have back cover flaws.  Looks great from the front.  Congratulations on the book and grade!

-J.