ComicLink Summer Featured Auction 2017 1 1

[SquareChaos]

Does it matter when it ends? Just submit your maximum bid and close your browser 

[jjonahjameson11]

1 hour ago, SquareChaos said:

Does it matter when it ends? Just submit your maximum bid and close your browser 

Yes, it does matter when the auction ends, and there's several reasons why that's important, but someone more articulate should explain.

[Pete Marino]

3 minutes ago, jjonahjameson11 said:

Yes, it does matter when the auction ends, and there's several reasons why that's important, but someone more articulate should explain.

I think it's called "I have time to talk myself into getting a little more insane syndrome"

I know i've been caught up in it, when someone's put in their "best bid" early, I've bid it up, then if i didn't beat it, walk away.  come back 5-10 hours later, talk myself into go up another 1k+, then getting outbid again, then bumping more...

 

Where if i had just "sniped" it in the last few seconds and not given them time to put in a recourse bid it would have been over, or i would have just lost and it would not have been bid up nearly as much.

When you have time to rationalize irrational bidding, the numbers can go up a lot more.

 

That's my  at least, and i doubt that was very articulate.

[F For Fake]

1 hour ago, SquareChaos said:

Does it matter when it ends? Just submit your maximum bid and close your browser 

Although this SHOULD be solid advice, I'm pretty sure 99% of bidders don't do it that way.  If you have the will power to do so, more power to ya! Do you win very often with this technique?

[SquareChaos]

2 minutes ago, Pete Marino said:

I think it's called "I have time to talk myself into getting a little more insane syndrome"

I know i've been caught up in it, when someone's put in their "best bid" early, I've bid it up, then if i didn't beat it, walk away.  come back 5-10 hours later, talk myself into go up another 1k+, then getting outbid again, then bumping more...

 

Where if i had just "sniped" it in the last few seconds and not given them time to put in a recourse bid it would have been over, or i would have just lost and it would not have been bid up nearly as much.

When you have time to rationalize irrational bidding, the numbers can go up a lot more.

 

That's my  at least, and i doubt that was very articulate.

I think the psychology of the entire online auction phenomenon is certainly in question, but if you know your maximum, plug it in, and walk away... it doesn't matter when the auction ends, or what anyone else does.

 

Thinking along the lines of the scenario listed is just psyching yourself. You either know what you're prepared to pay or you don't.

[SquareChaos]

1 minute ago, F For Fake said:

Although this SHOULD be solid advice, I'm pretty sure 99% of bidders don't do it that way.  If you have the will power to do so, more power to ya! Do you win very often with this technique?

I have often, but I am not a big game hunter. I'm sure it becomes more difficult as the numbers get bigger, but I think it is even more important with larger sums to really be mentally strong and stick to your plan. You could find yourself with a hell of a collection and no wall to hang it on pretty quick otherwise I'd bet 

[Pete Marino]

5 minutes ago, SquareChaos said:

I think the psychology of the entire online auction phenomenon is certainly in question, but if you know your maximum, plug it in, and walk away... it doesn't matter when the auction ends, or what anyone else does.

 

Thinking along the lines of the scenario listed is just psyching yourself. You either know what you're prepared to pay or you don't.

Agreed, i wish i could always be as rational as I should be.

And I'd like to think 99% of the time I am, but it's that 1% where the problems begin =)

And i'm pretty far from a "big game hunter".  

Now I just snipe or last second bid, and what happens, happens.

[SquareChaos]

Just now, Pete Marino said:

Agreed, i wish i could always be as rational as I should be.

And I'd like to think 99% of the time I am, but it's that 1% where the problems begin =)

And i'm pretty far from a "big game hunter".  

Now I just snipe or last second bid, and what happens, happens.

At the end of the day, as long as you have a system that works for you and doesn't bankrupt you, you are ahead of the curve.

[glendgold]

Just to add to the discussion of how well priced things are as of now: everything I want to buy is too high, and everything I've consigned is too low.  Other data points welcome.

[glendgold]

9 minutes ago, SquareChaos said:

At the end of the day, as long as you have a system that works for you and doesn't bankrupt you, you are ahead of the curve.

It's funny -- if you go back in the comicart-l archives to the very beginning, 20 or so years ago, you'll see people having the same argument.  Just bid and walk away vs. last minute.  I used to be the former until I realized that other people don't actually know how much to bid, just what other people value something at. 

[SquareChaos]

1 minute ago, glendgold said:

It's funny -- if you go back in the comicart-l archives to the very beginning, 20 or so years ago, you'll see people having the same argument.  Just bid and walk away vs. last minute.  I used to be the former until I realized that other people don't actually know how much to bid, just what other people value something at. 

That is definitely a strong point, but can we be certain it really impacts the outcome?

Consider that there is always a maximum bid in place as soon as the first person steps up to the plate. Assuming a bidder that rationalizes their price based on the current bid... they always have that data point don't they? No matter whether you've put in a tracking bid or a maximum bid. Granted, it may be argued that your maximum bid autobidding back into the top spot could spur them to greater efforts... but then if the only constraint on this hypothetical bidder is holding the top bid, it seems logically hard to argue that any strategy would defeat them.

[glendgold]

4 minutes ago, SquareChaos said:

That is definitely a strong point, but can we be certain it really impacts the outcome?

Consider that there is always a maximum bid in place as soon as the first person steps up to the plate. Assuming a bidder that rationalizes their price based on the current bid... they always have that data point don't they? No matter whether you've put in a tracking bid or a maximum bid. Granted, it may be argued that your maximum bid autobidding back into the top spot could spur them to greater efforts... but then if the only constraint on this hypothetical bidder is holding the top bid, it seems logically hard to argue that any strategy would defeat them.

What is this word "logic" you keep using? 

[delekkerste]

1 hour ago, F For Fake said:

Although this SHOULD be solid advice, I'm pretty sure 99% of bidders don't do it that way.  If you have the will power to do so, more power to ya! Do you win very often with this technique?

I've won the majority of my auction wins by putting my max bid in ahead of time (usually a couple/few hours ahead) and letting it ride.  Most of the time, I can't be arsed to have my schedule revolve around lot closing times.   

90% of the time, it works every time, because most of the people who don't have a good handle on what to bid will have already tried to accelerate price discovery prior to the final few hours before the auction ends.  As such, the risk of someone bidding you up, walking away, having second thoughts and then coming back to bid more is minimized, because most people by that point are looking to snipe.  And, frankly, the bidders most likely to do so are probably not going to be in a great financial position to run something up on me anyway - it again comes down to someone being prepared to pay or not. 

I know people who are extremely paranoid that the auction houses will run up your max bid if you leave it in their system early.  These people, including some very close friends of mine, will literally not bid on an item if they can't be there to snipe (CLink) or bid live (Heritage) on a lot.  Yes, they would rather do without!  Personally, I trust the auction houses not to do so, and have won numerous lots well below my max bid.  Sure, I've been pushed to my max a number of times as well, but, I've often later learned who the underbidder was or otherwise have not discerned any pattern that would lead me to believe shenanigans are going on.  I have to believe that, at least for the Big 3 auction players in the hobby, they are not stupid enough to risk their franchises (plus civil suits, jail time or even physical harm) to do something like that.

That is my take, anyway.  

Edited September 18, 2017 by delekkerste

[PhilipB2k17]

40 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

I've won the majority of my auction wins by putting my max bid in ahead of time (usually a couple/few hours ahead) and letting it ride.  Most of the time, I can't be arsed to have my schedule revolve around lot closing times.   

90% of the time, it works every time, because most of the people who don't have a good handle on what to bid will have already tried to accelerate price discovery prior to the final few hours before the auction ends.  As such, the risk of someone bidding you up, walking away, having second thoughts and then coming back to bid more is minimized, because most people by that point are looking to snipe.  And, frankly, the bidders most likely to do so are probably not going to be in a great financial position to run something up on me anyway - it again comes down to someone being prepared to pay or not. 

I know people who are extremely paranoid that the auction houses will run up your max bid if you leave it in their system early.  These people, including some very close friends of mine, will literally not bid on an item if they can't be there to snipe (CLink) or bid live (Heritage) on a lot.  Yes, they would rather do without!  Personally, I trust the auction houses not to do so, and have won numerous lots well below my max bid.  Sure, I've been pushed to my max a number of times as well, but, I've often later learned who the underbidder was or otherwise have not discerned any pattern that would lead me to believe shenanigans are going on.  I have to believe that, at least for the Big 3 auction players in the hobby, they are not stupid enough to risk their franchises (plus civil suits, jail time or even physical harm) to do something like that.

That is my take, anyway.  

I have only participated in one online auction, via Heritage. I wound up winning the page at below what I was willing to pay for it (in my own mind). I did not put in a max bid ahead of time for a singular reason: While I knew what I would ~probably~ pay for the item, I wasn't 100% certain. I was concerned that if I put in my Max bid, I might actually wind up paying it, and I did not decide until the live bids were going on how much I was wiling to pay for it. As it turns out, I paid under (even after adding the buyer's premium), what my Max bid would have been.

I also wanted to get a feel for the mechanics of a HA, as I had never done one before. That was another concern. Not knowing exactly what I was doing.  

 

[RabidFerret]

48 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

I've won the majority of my auction wins by putting my max bid in ahead of time (usually a couple/few hours ahead) and letting it ride.  Most of the time, I can't be arsed to have my schedule revolve around lot closing times.   

90% of the time, it works every time, because most of the people who don't have a good handle on what to bid will have already tried to accelerate price discovery prior to the final few hours before the auction ends.  As such, the risk of someone bidding you up, walking away, having second thoughts and then coming back to bid more is minimized, because most people by that point are looking to snipe.  And, frankly, the bidders most likely to do so are probably not going to be in a great financial position to run something up on me anyway - it again comes down to someone being prepared to pay or not. 

I know people who are extremely paranoid that the auction houses will run up your max bid if you leave it in their system early.  These people, including some very close friends of mine, will literally not bid on an item if they can't be there to snipe (CLink) or bid live (Heritage) on a lot.  Yes, they would rather do without!  Personally, I trust the auction houses not to do so, and have won numerous lots well below my max bid.  Sure, I've been pushed to my max a number of times as well, but, I've often later learned who the underbidder was or otherwise have not discerned any pattern that would lead me to believe shenanigans are going on.  I have to believe that, at least for the Big 3 auction players in the hobby, they are not stupid enough to risk their franchises (plus civil suits, jail time or even physical harm) to do something like that.

That is my take, anyway.  

For me it comes down to how much I want the piece and how important it is. And which auction house it's on.

For the vast majority of art, I do exactly what Michael Douglas suggests, sometimes even throwing in my high bid on day 1 and letting it ride the whole auction. I've won quite a few auctions by being the first bidder and folks giving up early and moving on because they can't beat my day 1 max bid. But that's only for lesser stuff.

The big stuff I want, the real targets, I'll wait. For Heritage I'll bid live and plan my day around it. For Comiclink, usually in the last hour I'll throw in a bid. On eBay I'll use a sniping service and set my high bid earlier in the week.

 

[Nexus]

28 minutes ago, RabidFerret said:

The big stuff I want, the real targets, I'll wait. For Heritage I'll bid live and plan my day around it. For Comiclink, usually in the last hour I'll throw in a bid. On eBay I'll use a sniping service and set my high bid earlier in the week.

 

Bingo. For what we really want, we wait. Even Michael Douglas.

[delekkerste]

7 minutes ago, Nexus said:

Bingo. For what we really want, we wait. Even Michael Douglas.

At first I was going to say, "sometimes...but certainly not always", but even that overstates the case.  I'd say that the number of occasions where I have felt absolutely compelled to bid live manually (either by phone, Heritage Live or manual snipe on CLink), you can probably count on one hand. 

Even on lots I really want, at least with Heritage, my usual modus operandi is to put in my max bid on the Heritage Live! system after the Internet session ends, and just let the system bid for me.  If I happen to be available when the lot comes up for bidding, I will cancel the HA Live bid and then bid manually.  But, I am nearly always prepared to let the system bid for me, and have only phone bid once on a HA lot (and that was years ago and not even for comic art).  For CLink, if I know I'll be available, I may wait until the last few seconds to snipe.  But, I'd say 90% of the time, I'll have put in my max bid ahead of time. 

What you may have meant was that, for something we really want, even Michael Douglas does not tip his bidding ahead of time.  But, even that's not always true!  Might be a good question if we ever do another podcast.  

Edited September 18, 2017 by delekkerste

[Panelfan1]

I am just excited to know that a famous celebrity like Michael Douglas collects comic art!

[comix4fun]

1 hour ago, Panelfan1 said:

I am just excited to know that a famous celebrity like Michael Douglas collects comic art!

 

[jjonahjameson11]

So, getting back to the actual auction, has anyone else noticed the Byrne Avengers pages at $8K and $15.25k ?!