They're Still Out There! 22 22

[Funnybooks]

15 minutes ago, buttock said:

 I think I remember that from Calc 2.  But I can't remember how to integrate.  

 beats me

Edited June 18, 2021 by Funnybooks

[sfcityduck]

2 hours ago, Pantodude said:

Or maybe you just misread my post before getting a bit unhinged there?    Anyway, what they said.  Relative scarcity could explain the result, since the difference in 9.8 availability is sooooo extreme.  That's all.    And BTW, it's only 4 MS5s in 9.8.

This auction result definitely unhinges me.  Every GA collector knows that relative scarcity only takes you so far.  You can own the rarest GA comics around (and I have had some), but that alone won't get you numbers like that MS 5.  This MS 5 just topped out the highest graded Suspense 3 from just a few years ago.  Even rare GA comics in super high grade won't necessarily get you $250K+.  It takes a confluence of factors, and I don't see the rationale for MS 5 having that confluence.  I have little reason to believe that there are not many other high grade MS 5s out there.  There were too many people collecting comics in the 70s.  Many just aren't slabbing their comics (like me).  My GSXM 1, IH 180-181-182, etc. are all raw and will stay that way for another decade at least.  

I fully get I am out of touch.  Heck, I'm now getting back a submission that includes a 9.8 Predator 1 (a movie comic?), a 9.8 Usagi Yojimbo 1 (I haven't submitted my Albedos, and other pre-UY 1 appearances), a 9.8 DH 10 (really? Mask?), etc., that I thought were all entirely without value until I spent a little time on the non-GA boards.  So don't get me wrong - I congratulate the seller.  But I can't explain what the buyers are thinking on those books which I bought off the stands.  And I definitely can't fathom the argument for MS 5.  So many more things that I think are much rarer and more desirable.

Edited June 18, 2021 by sfcityduck

[Pantodude]

32 minutes ago, sfcityduck said:

This auction result definitely unhinges me.  Every GA collector knows that relative scarcity only takes you so far.  You can own the rarest GA comics around (and I have had some), but that alone won't get you numbers like that MS 5.  This MS 5 just topped out the highest graded Suspense 3 from just a few years ago.  Even rare GA comics in super high grade won't necessarily get you $250K+.  It takes a confluence of factors, and I don't see the rationale for MS 5 having that confluence.  I have little reason to believe that there are not many other high grade MS 5s out there.  There were too many people collecting comics in the 70s.  Many just aren't slabbing their comics (like me).  My GSXM 1, IH 180-181-182, etc. are all raw and will stay that way for another decade at least.  

I fully get I am out of touch.  Heck, I'm now getting back a submission that includes a 9.8 Predator 1 (a movie comic?), a 9.8 Usagi Yojimbo (I haven't submitted my Albedos, and other pre-UY 1 appearances), a 9.8 DH 10 (really? Mask?), etc., that I thought were all entirely without value until I spent a little time on the non-GA boards.  So don't get me wrong - I congratulate the seller.  But I can't explain what the buyers are thinking on those books which I bought off the stands.  And I definitely can't fathom the argument for MS 5.  So many more things that I think are much rarer and more desirable.

You've got some nice books there!  And I hear you.  But trying to make sense of it all is part of the fun.   But what you said about not plannig  to slab (and thus presumably sell) your books for at least ten years partially explains today's sale, which was 5 years since the last one.  Many big pockets are not the type to wait that long for wantlist items and have the dough to speed up acquisitions.  And today, there were apparently at least two such types!   

Edited June 18, 2021 by Pantodude

[lou_fine]

4 hours ago, Pantodude said:

4 hours ago, sfcityduck said:

WTF?  Ghost Rider is greater than or = to New X-Men?  You and I live in different universes.

Or maybe you just misread my post before getting a bit unhinged there?    Anyway, what they said.  Relative scarcity could explain the result, since the difference in 9.8 availability is sooooo extreme.  That's all.    And BTW, it's only 4 MS5s in 9.8.

I believe you cannot accurately equate relative scarcity between 2 different books in terms of the determination of their values unless the relative demand for both of them are the same, which is clearly NOT the case with Ghost Rider and the New X-Men.  

Otherwise, my raw and supposedly rare HG copy of New Comics 2 from 1936 with the first appearance of The Federal Men by the creative team of Siegel and Shuster who would go on to much greater fame later on should be worth absolute millions then.  Especially since there are only 5 unrestored graded copies in total with all 5 of these ranging in grade from CGC 0.5 to CGC 2.0 only, while MS 5 has 3,553 graded copies to date and counting across almost the entire condition spectrum, which makes their difference in graded availability soooooon very extreme.  

Edited June 18, 2021 by lou_fine

[VintageComics]

On 6/3/2021 at 9:36 AM, pemart1966 said:

Speaking of stamps...https://www.cnn.com/style/article/three-treasures-sothebys-coin-stamps/index.html

Goodness. As a kid, I genuinely dreamed of one day owning the Black on Magenta. Wow.

[VintageComics]

On 6/11/2021 at 8:34 PM, vheflin said:

At Heritage, even the office furniture is for sale.

And is it just me or is Ed Jaster barefoot?

 

[VintageComics]

1 hour ago, lou_fine said:

I believe you cannot accurately equate relative scarcity between 2 different books in terms of the determination of their values unless the relative demand for both of them are the same, which is clearly NOT the case with Ghost Rider and the New X-Men.  

Except he did.

We all do it. There are relationships that books have to other books.

I'm not going to give you a tutorial on how to make those calculations but they are out there. You guys do it every time you multiply a guide price.

[namisgr]

9 hours ago, tth2 said:

I feel like we're in 2008, and valuations are now built on derivatives of derivatives.  

Think of it less as a valuation of that comic in that condition, and more as an example of what somebody was at one time willing to pay for it.  

Edited June 18, 2021 by namisgr

[Peter G]

On 6/3/2021 at 11:18 AM, Badger said:

Can you imagine the outcry if someone tried to start a new tradition of placing the current owners initials on Pedigree comics. 

This is a crazy "tradition" to sign this stamp

[Pantodude]

Just wanted to bring home what I thought was a salient point regarding MS5 in 9.8 valuation, one I already made above but is worth making sure some of you lil devils understand.     That book is no chump, as it has been popular and valuable for a long time.   It already sold for nearly $50K way back in 2016, back when a GSXM1 in 9.8 sold for only $8K.   A roughly 6x multiple in MS5 9.8s favor.  Even in 2013, when (prior to yesterday) the only other MS5 9.8 sold for $13K, GSXM1 9.8 went for $4K, shy of a 3.5x multiple in MS5 9.8's favor.  So it seems naive to act like folks had not already been assigning a very special status/value to MS5 scarcity in 9.8, especially compared to GSXM1 in particular.  Today's result, while consistent in this regard, was actually quite muted in light of this historical context:  $264K > $72K is "only" about a 3.5x multiple.   Arguably, the MS5 9.8 should or at least could have gone for $450K (!) using a 6x multiple with this historical support, whatever the underlying reason.  Maybe yesterday's bidders were on to something!    

Edited June 18, 2021 by Pantodude

[jimbo_7071]

9 hours ago, LordRahl said:

Well perhaps it is a matter of time, but it will not be in our lifetimes. CGC has been around for 20 years and there are 5 on the census. You think another 95 will magically appear in the next 10-20 years? Unrealistic.

It isn't magic. Most Bronze Age books are still raw. Many guys who were collecting back then still have their collections but aren't actively buying and have no idea that that book is worth that kind of coin. (I used to collect BA books back in the 80s but then switched to GA only; I had no idea that that book was a five-figure book let alone a six-figure book.)

[drbanner]

42 minutes ago, jimbo_7071 said:

It isn't magic. Most Bronze Age books are still raw. Many guys who were collecting back then still have their collections but aren't actively buying and have no idea that that book is worth that kind of coin. (I used to collect BA books back in the 80s but then switched to GA only; I had no idea that that book was a five-figure book let alone a six-figure book.)

I think we’ll find out in the next 12 months if this book is actually rare in 9.8, if all the 9.6 owners are running to get their copies pressed, or if there are dozens/hundreds of raw HG copies sitting in collections.

MS5 has been a key BA book for a long, long time behind only H181, Spiday 129, GSX1, X94, and maybe HoS 92 and TMNT 1 in recent years. Ghost Rider was the hottest character of the BA for a while back in the day, this book has been heavily collected since well before CGC opened their doors.

[jimbo_7071]

5 hours ago, VintageComics said:

 

 

7 minutes ago, drbanner said:

I think we’ll find out in the next 12 months if this book is actually rare in 9.8, if all the 9.6 owners are running to get their copies pressed, or if there are dozens/hundreds of raw HG copies sitting in collections.

MS5 has been a key BA book for a long, long time behind only H181, Spiday 129, GSX1, X94, and maybe HoS 92 and TMNT 1 in recent years. Ghost Rider was the hottest character of the BA for a while back in the day, this book has been heavily collected since well before CGC opened their doors.

I think it will take longer than 12 months. News doesn't spread quite that fast, especially not to guys who might not be active in the hobby right now (which is probably 90% of the guys who built up their collections in the 70s and 80s). I think that you will see at least a few more 9.8s within the next 12 months, though.

Edited June 18, 2021 by jimbo_7071

[Pantodude]

1 minute ago, jimbo_7071 said:

 

I think it will take longer than 12 months. News doesn't spread quite that fast, especially not to guys who might not be active in the hobby right now (which is probably 90% of the guys who built up their collections in the 70s and 80s). I think that you will see at least a few more 9.8s within the next 12 months, though.

Hard to ignore that this would/should have happened already in 2013 ($13K for a MS5 9.8) and 2016 ($48.5K for MS5 9.8) when MS5 in 9.8 sold for multiples of a GSXM1 in 9.8.  There is no reason why promising 9.6 copies of this book, but not TMNT1, SW1s, ASM129s, and yes GSXM1s, etc., were held back.  It is irrational, sorry.  But time will tell, as you say.  

[Transplant]

3 hours ago, namisgr said:

12 hours ago, tth2 said:

I feel like we're in 2008, and valuations are now built on derivatives of derivatives.  

Think of it less as a valuation of that comic in that condition, and more as an example of what somebody was at one time willing to pay for it.  

You guys need a mark to market?  I might know a guy. 

[Pickie]

Just checked my 3 winning bids with Heritage:

They're still out there!  

[sfcityduck]

1 hour ago, drbanner said:

Ghost Rider was the hottest character of the BA for a while back in the day, this book has been heavily collected since well before CGC opened their doors.

Ghost Rider was never "hot" at all during the Bronze Age or anytime through the end of the 80s that I can recall.  

[jimbo_7071]

1 hour ago, Pantodude said:

Hard to ignore that this would/should have happened already in 2013 ($13K for a MS5 9.8) and 2016 ($48.5K for MS5 9.8) when MS5 in 9.8 sold for multiples of a GSXM1 in 9.8.  There is no reason why promising 9.6 copies of this book, but not TMNT1, SW1s, ASM129s, and yes GSXM1s, etc., were held back.  It is irrational, sorry.  But time will tell, as you say.  

2013 was only 8 years ago. I've personally gone more than ten years at a time without looking up the values of the books in my collection. I have a small coin collection and a small baseball card collection, and I haven't looked up any values for either since at least the 90s. People who aren't active on the hobby don't bother to find out what their comics are worth until they decide to sell. That's why dealers can get away with waving around thirty-year-old copies of Overstreet and using them to buy million-dollar collections for pennies on the dollar. Money comes easily to conscienceless people, which includes most comic book dealers.

[Bandelier]

That MS5 has to be an anomaly. Remember it only takes two people to drive a bidding war.

[Randall Dowling]

51 minutes ago, sfcityduck said:

Ghost Rider was never "hot" at all during the Bronze Age or anytime through the end of the 80s that I can recall.  

This is correct.  It was in 1989/1990 when people started looking at Bronze Age books as a value compared to the Silver Age explosion of the time.  And MS 5 was identified at that time as a big key issue.  Before that, most issues of Ghost Rider were quarter box material.