They're Still Out There! 22 22

[LordRahl]

20 minutes ago, MasterChief said:

Smells like another Jay Parrino or two have entered the hobby.

Perrino dropped a lot of capital on high-grade everything based solely on the lure of CGC grading and encasement in the early days.

IIRC, he didn’t last long. Liquidated his "collection" in a bubble bath of losses.

 

If it was one auction with crazy prices, I'd agree with you. It's not. This is happening in every auction, across all ages of books. That can't be attributed to one guy. 

[MasterChief]

9 hours ago, Funnybooks said:

I can attest that the winner of the PL 17 is not an outside speculator and is ingrained in the hobby. The other "big" PL's all now reside in the collection of a prominent collector very much connected with CgC and Heritage.

Jim Halperin?

I don't see any PLs in his private collection, but I suppose you never know how much of his stuff is actually listed on the website.

[RustyStaples]

It's difficult to figure out what caused the high prices.  The three possibilities in my opinion are:

1. Overall hot market.  The best evidence for this is the strong prices yielded on the non-promise books in the very same auction, the 4.5 PL at $20k+ is an impressive sale to say the least, and it wasn't an outlier.  This whole session has had really strong numbers, I think the fact that the market is hot is lost on nobody, but I think it's also clear that the Promise books took it one step further.  They were selling for more than just "hot market" prices.

2. Ultra high grade chasers. The best evidence for this in my opinion is the Flash run.  Non-key 9.6 and 9.8 copies across the board were $15k+ with quite a few breaking $20k.  20,000 US dollars is a big hurdle for a comic, and yet these Flash books seemed able to reach incredible numbers with ease.  The Flash run is the best example in my opinion because there were SO many examples of census toppers, and often by a difference of two or even three grades.  If you want the best Flash books, even if you thought the whole promise collection was graded soft by 0.2, these were the nicest copies.  I generally don't like to look at Timely books when talking about trends, because if there's one thing I've learned about golden age comics it's that you can't predict the price of a Timely book.  Especially not one with the holy trinity combo of Alex Schomburg, Captain America, and a war cover.  That said, the Timely books were also good examples of census toppers and it's hard to imagine Cap 36 (the real dark horse of this auction) breaking $200k wasn't because it was just such a beautiful example of that book, and the undisputed nicest copy.

3. Promise collection story.  I think this one is responsible for a huge percentage of the juice.  Example: Sub Mariner 32.  The promise collection copy is a 7.0.  There's 3 other 7.0s, 3 7.5s, and 2 8.5s.  It's FAR from a census topper, it's just a nice copy of a great book.  A 7.0 sold in April of last year on heritage for $4300.  This copy gets $24,000.  Not even a bump in PQ either, both OW/W.  Has the market for golden age Timely books increased by 500% in one year?  Were two bidders perhaps too caught up in winning at all costs thus making this an anomaly?  The thing is, this wasn't an anomaly.  There's almost countless examples.  A non key, non bondage, run of the mill (if such a golden age book could ever be called that) Black Hood in 9.0 breaking $4k?  While good copies of similar mid run Black Hoods on ebay aren't breaking $150...  Here's an example, I promise it's the last one.  Lone Star comics had a Catman Comics 31 for sale for a few weeks in CGC 6.5.  Sold for 2600 just a few weeks ago.  Promise copy in 7.5 gets $9000.  But surely that 7.5 copy of a nice LB Cole cover is one of the nicest examples around, right?  Wrong...  13 copies above it in the census.  One wouldn't think the promise story, as great as it is, would add much juice to an LB Cole cover, maybe a war cover certainly.

I think it's clearly a combination of the three.  The question is, what percentage to each.  I think there was alot of FOMO.  That Catman 31 sounds like a bidder who lost out on one of the other Catman 9.4/9.6s and wanted to go home with something.  The 3.0 Captain America 36 that's been sitting on ebay for almost a year sold within minutes of the 9.4 ending.  FOMO all around.  Will these sales stand the test of time?  In this humble collectors opinion (which isn't worth much)... No.  I predicted the final tally of the promise collection to be $7,000,000 before the auction happened.  I lurk alot around here, I was surprised so many thought it would be low.  I knew there would be some craziness, but I ask you, does it seem like the first appearance of a Batman villain (who isn't the joker) should go for roughly half the price of the first appearance of the Dark Knight himself?  I know I'm not comparing apples to apples here, 9.6 census topper vs 5.0, but the Riddler and Batman aren't really comparable either.

In conclusion, I think with the amount of money being thrown around in the hobby these days, it's getting harder and harder to compare a comic book to cash.  Is Tec 140 truly worth 450k?  Is Black Hood 13 in 9.0 truly worth 4000 (I'm not going to let that one go )?  If we can't compare a comic book to cash, we can compare it to another comic.  We can ask if the 9.4 Cap 36 should be worth 31.4 times a 3.0.  We can ask if a promise 7.5 should be worth 3.6 times a 6.5.  We can ask if one 9.6 PL17 should be equal to one Tec 140.  All I know is there are probably alot of thrilled winners, and there are probably some remorseful ones too, but I don't think there's hardly anyone who could flip a book they bought yesterday for profit today, it will take a while.  Well maybe one... All American 61, that book was a steal in my opinion.   

 

[adamstrange]

6 minutes ago, RustyStaples said:

3. Promise collection story.

I don't think the people spending this kind of money care much one way or another about the story, in so far as it affects their interest or bidding.

More likely, this auction provided convenience.  In one simple event, a collector can bid on hundreds of books in killer condition.  They are unlikely to have searched other comic book sites for these books in other grades because they lacked awareness or time to do so.

 

[adamstrange]

20 minutes ago, RustyStaples said:

Is Black Hood 13 in 9.0 truly worth 4000 (I'm not going to let that one go )? 

You should.  This was top graded copy by far of a book where only 7 have been graded. 

It's a scarce book and that's pocket change compared to the couple hundred other record-setting outliers in this sale.

[Mmehdy]

856K for the second day...amazing I saw every hammer....just wow

[RustyStaples]

6 minutes ago, adamstrange said:

You should.  This was top graded copy by far of a book where only 7 have been graded. 

It's a scarce book and that's pocket change compared to the couple hundred other record-setting outliers in this sale.

Maybe so, but I think the record breakers don't provide as much data.  It's hard to look at the PL 17 and make any conclusions one way or the other, it's the lower books that provide insight in my opinion.  And you're right, the MLJs are scarce in grade, but I also think they're much rarer TO grade.  I imagine there's a higher percentage of ungraded early MLJ non keys out there than there is phantom ladys.  Heck I own a few.  Even in grade.

[Cat-Man_America]

7 minutes ago, Mmehdy said:

856K for the second day...amazing I saw every hammer....just wow

Yep, I watched it too, ...being even more careful around the bid button (...the trigger that would've hammered my wallet) this time.  

[comicartfan]

1 hour ago, MasterChief said:

Smells like another Jay Parrino or two have entered the hobby.

Perrino dropped a lot of capital on high-grade everything based solely on the lure of CGC grading and encasement in the early days.

IIRC, he didn’t last long. Liquidated his "collection" in a bubble bath of losses.

 

I remember his site back in the day. What sticks out most was the WM Incredible Hulk 1 CGC 9.2 for $25K.......

 

Uggh.....those were the days 

[VintageComics]

1 hour ago, RustyStaples said:

It's difficult to figure out what caused the high prices.  The three possibilities in my opinion are:

1. Overall hot market.  The best evidence for this is the strong prices yielded on the non-promise books in the very same auction, the 4.5 PL at $20k+ is an impressive sale to say the least, and it wasn't an outlier.  This whole session has had really strong numbers, I think the fact that the market is hot is lost on nobody, but I think it's also clear that the Promise books took it one step further.  They were selling for more than just "hot market" prices.

2. Ultra high grade chasers. The best evidence for this in my opinion is the Flash run.  Non-key 9.6 and 9.8 copies across the board were $15k+ with quite a few breaking $20k.  20,000 US dollars is a big hurdle for a comic, and yet these Flash books seemed able to reach incredible numbers with ease.  The Flash run is the best example in my opinion because there were SO many examples of census toppers, and often by a difference of two or even three grades.  If you want the best Flash books, even if you thought the whole promise collection was graded soft by 0.2, these were the nicest copies.  I generally don't like to look at Timely books when talking about trends, because if there's one thing I've learned about golden age comics it's that you can't predict the price of a Timely book.  Especially not one with the holy trinity combo of Alex Schomburg, Captain America, and a war cover.  That said, the Timely books were also good examples of census toppers and it's hard to imagine Cap 36 (the real dark horse of this auction) breaking $200k wasn't because it was just such a beautiful example of that book, and the undisputed nicest copy.

3. Promise collection story.  I think this one is responsible for a huge percentage of the juice.  Example: Sub Mariner 32.  The promise collection copy is a 7.0.  There's 3 other 7.0s, 3 7.5s, and 2 8.5s.  It's FAR from a census topper, it's just a nice copy of a great book.  A 7.0 sold in April of last year on heritage for $4300.  This copy gets $24,000.  Not even a bump in PQ either, both OW/W.  Has the market for golden age Timely books increased by 500% in one year?  Were two bidders perhaps too caught up in winning at all costs thus making this an anomaly?  The thing is, this wasn't an anomaly.  There's almost countless examples.  A non key, non bondage, run of the mill (if such a golden age book could ever be called that) Black Hood in 9.0 breaking $4k?  While good copies of similar mid run Black Hoods on ebay aren't breaking $150...  Here's an example, I promise it's the last one.  Lone Star comics had a Catman Comics 31 for sale for a few weeks in CGC 6.5.  Sold for 2600 just a few weeks ago.  Promise copy in 7.5 gets $9000.  But surely that 7.5 copy of a nice LB Cole cover is one of the nicest examples around, right?  Wrong...  13 copies above it in the census.  One wouldn't think the promise story, as great as it is, would add much juice to an LB Cole cover, maybe a war cover certainly.

I think it's clearly a combination of the three.  The question is, what percentage to each.  I think there was alot of FOMO.  That Catman 31 sounds like a bidder who lost out on one of the other Catman 9.4/9.6s and wanted to go home with something.  The 3.0 Captain America 36 that's been sitting on ebay for almost a year sold within minutes of the 9.4 ending.  FOMO all around.  Will these sales stand the test of time?  In this humble collectors opinion (which isn't worth much)... No.  I predicted the final tally of the promise collection to be $7,000,000 before the auction happened.  I lurk alot around here, I was surprised so many thought it would be low.  I knew there would be some craziness, but I ask you, does it seem like the first appearance of a Batman villain (who isn't the joker) should go for roughly half the price of the first appearance of the Dark Knight himself?  I know I'm not comparing apples to apples here, 9.6 census topper vs 5.0, but the Riddler and Batman aren't really comparable either.

In conclusion, I think with the amount of money being thrown around in the hobby these days, it's getting harder and harder to compare a comic book to cash.  Is Tec 140 truly worth 450k?  Is Black Hood 13 in 9.0 truly worth 4000 (I'm not going to let that one go )?  If we can't compare a comic book to cash, we can compare it to another comic.  We can ask if the 9.4 Cap 36 should be worth 31.4 times a 3.0.  We can ask if a promise 7.5 should be worth 3.6 times a 6.5.  We can ask if one 9.6 PL17 should be equal to one Tec 140.  All I know is there are probably alot of thrilled winners, and there are probably some remorseful ones too, but I don't think there's hardly anyone who could flip a book they bought yesterday for profit today, it will take a while.  Well maybe one... All American 61, that book was a steal in my opinion.   

 

Monetary and economic policy is the answer IMO. I've been saying it for months.

How much crypto profits were pulled in during the recent correction a few weeks ago? $1Trillion?

@delekkerste would have a better idea.

Think about that.

The US GDP is $20Trilion.

What are the GDP of most countries? Much less than $1TRIL.

Wal-Mart alone has a GDP of 0.5Trillion or about the size of most mid-sized countries and they are one of the wealthiest families in the world.

We also saw TRILLIONS pumped into the US economy through relief programs.

Not all of this money was needed OR went to saving businesses. Much of the Covid stimulus money is being spent by people on themselves.

I spoke to a person who deals in extremely high end collectible assets in Los Angeles (I won't name the asset or collectible as I don't want to open a can of worms but it's not related to our hobby) about stories circulating. He told me that people were coming in and signing over massive stimulus checks and buying things with stimulus money that did nothing more than stimulate their own shopping therapy.

I don't think we can understate how much liquidity is floating around right now.

This is the only thing that makes sense about the prices realized in every single hobby that you can think of.
 

Edited June 19, 2021 by VintageComics

[Mmehdy]

1 hour ago, VintageComics said:

Monetary and economic policy is the answer IMO. I've been saying it for months.

How much crypto profits were pulled in during the recent correction a few weeks ago? $1Trillion?

@delekkerste would have a better idea.

Think about that.

The US GDP is $20Trilion.

What are the GDP of most countries? Much less than $1TRIL.

Wal-Mart alone has a GDP of 0.5Trillion or about the size of most mid-sized countries and they are one of the wealthiest families in the world.

We also saw TRILLIONS pumped into the US economy through relief programs.

Not all of this money was needed OR went to saving businesses. Much of the Covid stimulus money is being spent by people on themselves.

I spoke to a person who deals in extremely high end collectible assets in Los Angeles (I won't name the asset or collectible as I don't want to open a can of worms but it's not related to our hobby) about stories circulating. He told me that people were coming in and signing over massive stimulus checks and buying things with stimulus money that did nothing more than stimulate their own shopping therapy.

I don't think we can understate how much liquidity is floating around right now.

This is the only thing that makes sense about the prices realized in every single hobby that you can think of.
 

We have passed 22 Million dollar total in the auction with 100 lots to go..world record for a comic book auction, yes the promise collection helped but some of the Church books went high too....I think its more a combo of increased realization of the value of both GA/SA comics combined with this additional money supply.

[VintageComics]

Just now, Mmehdy said:

We have passed 22 Million dollar total in the auction with 100 lots to go..world record for a comic book auction, yes the promise collection helped but some of the Church books went high too....I think its more a combo of increased realization of the value of both GA/SA comics combined with this additional money supply.

What would have been a previous auction record for comic books?

[jimbo_7071]

1 hour ago, szav said:

Not everything went to the moon.  As long as you don't need highest graded or generally desirable books, you can apparently walk away with one for less than 5k.....heck some of the nice Archies  even looked like steals.

Bring on the next round, release the master list!

I want to see the earlier books, even if they're not highest-graded copies. I couldn't care less about highest-graded, but as Will Rogers might have said, I never met a strictly-graded VF with rust-free staples and white pages that I didn't like.

[VintageComics]

@Mmehdy

I was asking what the previous Heritage comics auction record was to see what the multiplier was and to see what the correlation was with individual comic prices, which seem to have gone up from 2-5 X depending on the book.

[Mmehdy]

47 minutes ago, VintageComics said:

@Mmehdy

I was asking what the previous Heritage comics auction record was to see what the multiplier was and to see what the correlation was with individual comic prices, which seem to have gone up from 2-5 X depending on the book.

Final Total was $22,426,901 with 100% sell thru...WOW I believe the previous record is 15 Million or a little above. Remember, this is one of the smaller auctions at 1224 Lots with previous actions probably averaging 1700-2000 items. however when Ha increased the Sign auctions from 4 to 6 the overall lots went down to around 1500,  you will need to factor in the number of items available at the auction also. I think it is clear that the new World Record price is even more impressive considering the smaller number of items available .it is pretty safe to say the that it is  7M more than any other one before it. Hope that helps and will be interested to read your numbers crunch.

Edited June 20, 2021 by Mmehdy

[Robot Man]

Anybody feel like posting a list off all the session 1 results? 

[lou_fine]

17 hours ago, jimbo_7071 said:

They didn't have much of an impact on the grades, so why would they have much of an impact on the prices?

So happy to see that you've finally decided to joined everybody at the CGC juice bar and now buying the label, instead of buying the book.  

[lou_fine]

15 hours ago, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

If Heritage chooses not to slab, I guess that means it’ll be heritage, not cgc, doing the grading. 

Yeah, I guess they've decided to play it safe and not go with either PGX or the boys across the street in fear of the tighter and lower grades they might get on these books here.  

[adamstrange]

8 minutes ago, Robot Man said:

Anybody feel like posting a list off all the session 1 results? 

https://comics.ha.com/c/search-results.zx?N=790+231+52&Nty=1&Ntt=promise+collection&ic10=ArchiveTab-071515

[Robot Man]

13 minutes ago, adamstrange said:

https://comics.ha.com/c/search-results.zx?N=790+231+52&Nty=1&Ntt=promise+collection&ic10=ArchiveTab-071515

Thanks. I know how to do that. Just don’t want to do it one at a time. Figured somebody might be putting a complete spread sheet together.