They're Still Out There! 22 22

[Pantodude]

It wouldn't surprise me if this Tec140, which remains uber relevant due to Batman's enduring pop culture presence, reaches 300K, TBH.  I have no comment on the other GA goodies.  

But i think you are understating MS5, which reached almost $50K in 9.8 way back in 2016(!).  If it "only" tripled since then, that would be $150K.  The greater than 3x multiples by other BA megakeys like GSXM1, WBN32, IH181, etc., since 2016 suggest to the moon with MS5 in 9.8, with only four on the census.   The Copper Age key TMNT#1 sold for $90K in 2019 (more than 3x 2016 value), and TMNT1 has many more 9.8s than MS5.  And MS5 is an older, more popular key than TMNT1.  The fact that the X-Men 1 in 9.6 (with four 9.6s on the census and two higher in 9.8) is already at $592K on CC also suggests that this MS5 in 9.8 (1 of only 4) could go much higher.   While all this suggests that MS5 should go way higher than $125K, that assumes sanity and rationality in this market.    So I'm not betting nuttin' except the lint in my pockets.   

Edited June 12, 2021 by Pantodude

[Pantodude]

1 hour ago, szav said:

Agree with a lot of this, but not sure how many other people would say MS5 is a more popular key than TMNT #1.  I don't see any kids at Halloween dressing up as Ghost Rider but I see a lot of young ninja turtles out there.  Not to mention 20-30 year olds where I work wearing Turtles T-shirts and the like...have yet to see anyone sporting a Ghost Rider shrit.  Pretty sure a Turtles #1 in 9.8 is easily a 150k book now too...even 2nd prints in 9.6 are 5 figure books now.  The turtles have way way more broad cultural popularity and appeal than Ghost Rider (There's also 4 times as many MS5s on census as there are TMNT #1 First prints so it doesn't really mean much that MS5 is older).

Another thing I've noticed in watching the GA and SA/BA/CA auctions is that SA and more recent keys are usually at 60-70% of their eventual final values with about a week or so to go, but GA books tend to hover lower relative to their final values and have a lot more tendency double or triple or more during the live auction or on the last day.  Case in point, how much higher do you think that FF48 CGC 9.8 sitting at 75k has to go?  The MS5 9.8 could be rare enough that it's an exception and we might see a whale fight push it up over 200k, but I think its more likely ending up in the 125-150k range.

But I'm just guessing, in this market I wouldn't put money on any outcome.

I hear you re TMNT/MS5, but TMNT has been niche all this time since 1984.  Anyway, we are really talking about MS5 in 9.8 grade and the folks who hunt down the best examples of popular/important books.  So relative scarcity of the 9.8 is the issue.  There are 29 blue 9.8s for TMNT1 first print, compared to only 4 for MS5.  And that is where the fact that MS5 is older DOES matter, as it is consistent with the expectation that a 1972 book was less likely to have been optimally handled/stored from the get-go than a 1984 book.  Whatever the reason for the survival rates, owning an MS5 in 9.8 is a very special privilege today. 

But that's not the only consideration.  Bidders in this auction should be asking themselves, if not this unicorn of an MS5, then which one and when?  Comparing TMNT1's sales history is informative.  One TMNT1 in 9.8 sold in 2011, followed by another in 2012, two in 2013, another in 2014 and 2016, and two more in each of 2017, 2018, and 2019 as far as GPA is concerned (i.e., 12 times since 2011 and on roughly an annual basis), not even incuding any additional sales of TMNT1s in 9.8 on ComicLink, ComicConnect, etc., these recent years (there were at least some).   So one can reasonably expect to see another TMNT1 in 9.8 for sale every year.   By contrast, a grand total of TWO MS5s in 9.8 have sold since 2011 (the sole other sale being in 2016, FIVE years ago!) per GPA.  Had there been any other sales on CL or CC of an MS5 in 9.8, presumably this forum would have chirped about it.  Anyway, I know of none.  That speaks volumes (pun intended) about not only the relative scarcity of MS5 in 9.8, but also how often it actually comes to market.  So again, if not now (to obtain an MS5 in 9.8), then when?   Wait another 5 years?  More?  In light of the money being fetched by other BA and newer keys, including TMNT1, sanity suggests to the moon with this MS5.   But it's been crazy, so . . . .  

 

Edited June 13, 2021 by Pantodude

[sfcityduck]

MS 5, IH 181, GSX 1, and other Bronze Marvels are not rare or scarce.  There was a very robust collecting community back then and many of us buying back then still have our books, boxed and boarded but not encapsulated, feeling little urgency to sell.  Of my personal OO collection, I have cgc’d fewer than 10 books, all to sell because the prices were  crazy and the books were fringe books (Predator 1, Aliens 1, etc.) that I could convert into something rare and special.

[jimjum12]

5 hours ago, lou_fine said:

That makes sense then if you still have to add in the 20% BP on top of your original numbers there.  

For me, I see the 'Tec 140 around $250K all in, the PL 17 at $150K to $175K since it's been an all-time classic cover ever since the Overstreet's been around, about $125K to $150K for the AA 61 since it's a more recent classic cover for the past 20 years (probably closer to $125K because of the Church 9.8 graded copy out there), and who knows with the MS 5 but I would say maybe $125K.  

And then yet, all 4 of these combined will still not be able to beat the X-Men 1 in CGC 9.6 graded condtion that CC has in their currrent Event Auction which might end up in the $800K range or thereabouts by the time it's all said and done: 

https://www.comicconnect.com/item/919592

 

Definitely not so sure about this myself, but I would probably take those 4 books for my own personal collection, as opposed to just this one single copy of XM 1 here.  

What say the rest of you here on this lazy hazy crazy day of summer?  

I'm thinking you've estimated a bit low on the AA 61 .... but regardless, your either/or scenario is intriguing. I would have a hard time choosing, as the 9.8 XM 1's are Pacific Coasts, if I'm not mistaken, with that washed out pale green color strike, so this 9.6 is certainly the prettiest known copy... it's a prize for sure... but the group of GA books ? ...wow. Tec 140 is a historic key, but it never really grabbed me, but AA 61 and PL 17 more than make up for it. Tough choice, Now if it was an FF 1 in 9.6... my choice would be easier. GOD BLESS....

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

[tth2]

1 hour ago, jimjum12 said:

I'm thinking you've estimated a bit low on the AA 61 .... but regardless, your either/or scenario is intriguing. I would have a hard time choosing, as the 9.8 XM 1's are Pacific Coasts, if I'm not mistaken, with that washed out pale green color strike, so this 9.6 is certainly the prettiest known copy...

One of the 9.8 X-Men 1s is the Pacific Coast copy, upgraded from its original 9.6 grade.  The other is the Curator copy, which was graded as a 9.8 the first time it was submitted, and described by the owner as "bone white".

[linmoth]

8 hours ago, tth2 said:

One of the 9.8 X-Men 1s is the Pacific Coast copy, upgraded from its original 9.6 grade.  The other is the Curator copy, which was graded as a 9.8 the first time it was submitted, and described by the owner as "bone white".

I held both side by side. I owned the PC copy that was upgraded, there is a second. The Curator is a much better 9.8 copy, IMHO!

[Pantodude]

GA goodies might sweep the medals podium?  They are the real unicorns here, after all.  TEC140 9.6 strong out of the gate.  PL17 9.6 caught up to MS5 9.8, both at 96k.  AA61 9.6 now at 90k, so right there. As someone noted above, Mask #1 8.5 is making some noise, too, now at 79k.   It’s been years since we saw an MS5 sell in that grade, so it should do well compared to other BA/CA keys, but the TEC140, PL17, and Mask1 are the highest graded.  There is one 9.8 out there for the AA61, but it’s still a unicorn at 9.6.  

Edited June 13, 2021 by Pantodude
Format

[Pantodude]

11 hours ago, szav said:

And just like that the Mask 1 CGC inserts itself into the conversation, now up over 75k w/bp.  Is it another book destined to break 100k? 

I wonder how the Church 9.4 with a small amount of color touch would grade if CGC did one of it's scrape jobs on it (not that I think the current owner would do that, and not that I advocate that, in fact I hate everything about that)...but wasnt the CT done to Church books usually really small?  Would that copy still grade 8,5 or better?  I'm guessing it might.  Maybe one day CGC will decide to the right thing and regrade these books that only have small or minor CT, as if they had tiny stains, or just give them the grades they would get as if the CT was scraped off, but without actually desecrating the books, and put them in blue holders with a label note about the CT.

I’m intrigued by the Mask1 in this race, too.   A dark horse?  That blue/universal 8.5, barely a “high” grade in some folks’ view, is the sole highest graded. While it’s “only” an 8.5, the next highest graded blue is a mid-grade (itself a sole 7.5)!  Owning not only the highest graded, but also the sole high grade blue example of a GA goodie like that, with the Promise ped to boot!  If I were a betting man....

Edited June 13, 2021 by Pantodude

[batman_fan]

Surprised no mention of the Detective 69 sitting at $50k with the juice.  I think it will still tick up higher.

[Pantodude]

There are more Promise GA goodies to be rolled out in each of the upcoming Heritage auctions for like the next 18 months i think.  

Edited June 13, 2021 by Pantodude

[Pantodude]

20 minutes ago, batman_fan said:

Surprised no mention of the Detective 69 sitting at $50k with the juice.  I think it will still tick up higher.

I think folks were speculating on the medal/podium contenders or the $100K+ candidates.  You think this too will crack 100K?  There is a 9.6 out there, and two other 9.0s, but  then again a 6.5 went for almost $30K last year, so....    

[batman_fan]

1 minute ago, Pantodude said:

I think folks were speculating on the medal/podium contenders or the $100K+ candidates.  You think this too will crack 100K?  There is a 9.6 out there, and two other 9.0s, but  then again a 6.5 went for almost $30K last year, so....    

I suspect it will go higher but not sure if it crosses $100k but it is definitely a contender.

[Pantodude]

I was initially looking at only the podium contenders for highest haul, but $100K+ contenders would have to include the AF15 6.0, currently at 66K on HA.   In April, a 6.0 sold for $96K and a 6.5 hit $125K.  And just on 5/28, an 8.0 sold for $300K on the CL Exch.  The X-Men #1 9.0 SS will also likely surpass $100K, since a non-SS 9.0 sold in March for $95K.  But who knows.   

[Of course, the Tec 27 blue 5.0 and AC1 conserved 5.5 will split the gold and silver medals for tops overall.]

Edited June 13, 2021 by Pantodude

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

I think 2 or 3 Timelies will cross $100k. A couple more will hit $50k, and 5 or 6 will get to $30k.  Actually, I hope I’m wrong 

[Mmehdy]

1 hour ago, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

I think 2 or 3 Timelies will cross $100k. A couple more will hit $50k, and 5 or 6 will get to $30k.  Actually, I hope I’m wrong 

It is going to be very interesting to see if the first auction floor price...holds for the second or explodes up. I would guess the longer the collection is out there the more potential buyer for these books will be alerted. I think the under copies could be under the "radar" at least in terms of this auction and especially the Sunday auctions with a seven day timeframe. In the long run we will look back as GA collectors and say, like I did on the SF,Church collections that we should of bought more.

[batman_fan]

1 hour ago, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

I think 2 or 3 Timelies will cross $100k. A couple more will hit $50k, and 5 or 6 will get to $30k.  Actually, I hope I’m wrong 

sadly for buyers, I think you are right  (but good for the seller) 

[LordRahl]

The big books are doing what everyone expected and going for very strong money, nothing in this auction will surprise me for those books. But has anyone noticed that a Surfer #4 is sitting at $56K right now. Let that sink in.... $56K for a non-key, albeit classic cover late silver age book. The biggest sale prior to this is $18K for the Rocky Mountain copy although there could be some larger sales on CL that GPA isn't capturing. If you need more proof that this market is....uuummmmmm... unpredictable, there you go.

[Robot Man]

33 minutes ago, Mmehdy said:

It is going to be very interesting to see if the first auction floor price...holds for the second or explodes up. I would guess the longer the collection is out there the more potential buyer for these books will be alerted. I think the under copies could be under the "radar" at least in terms of this auction and especially the Sunday auctions with a seven day timeframe. In the long run we will look back as GA collectors and say, like I did on the SF,Church collections that we should of bought more.

I would have loved to buy more SF books. I would travel up to the Bay Area from LA and found Mr. Beerbong would sell me no more than 3 per trip...

[Mmehdy]

1 hour ago, Robot Man said:

I would have loved to buy more SF books. I would travel up to the Bay Area from LA and found Mr. Beerbong would sell me no more than 3 per trip...

On the first collection  SF waive, no limits, I can remember buying 10 SF actions at time. When the second collection hit, there was a buying limit, but they new me really really well...so it did not apply to me, the third and final SF collection which was going San Diego and one the reasons that I especially wanted to go that  year was intercepted by  one collector, who bought it all, lock stock and barrel. Years later, Ernie Gerber bought that collection to action will all of those great books and which helped finance the "Photo Journal Guide"...which at the time, had in my opinion the greatest impact on GA comic book collecting for several as it was in two volumes. It exposed, not only Action #1 and Cap #1 as great books, but a whole host of other books which we had never really be exposed to as well as a guide to rarity those great GA. I can remember to this day, they release and wow ...and every and I mean every GA book collector added books to their want list. The Promise collection will give some lucky GA collectors and especially board members here a piece of the pie...to get even 1 super high grade timely which in that condition is beyond rare. Folks, if you goal is one promise or twenty it does not matter, it is where your GA heart lies. I am proudest to be a GA 50+ year collector, who was there for these execpitonal OO pedigree collections, and it has taken me over 40 years to feel that excitement again, you just had to be there back then 40 years or so and even now to get that "wow' factor back in your collecting heart is just plain SUPER.

Edited June 13, 2021 by Mmehdy

[Gotham Kid]

6 hours ago, Pantodude said:

6 hours ago, batman_fan said:

Surprised no mention of the Detective 69 sitting at $50k with the juice.  I think it will still tick up higher.

I think folks were speculating on the medal/podium contenders or the $100K+ candidates.  You think this too will crack 100K?  There is a 9.6 out there

belongs to Eric Roberts