Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[D2]

On 10/21/2022 at 10:57 PM, COI said:

Nope, not personal. A little snarky maybe, but your argument about hoarding relies on predicting the future (a time where people no longer hoard), hence the crystal ball comment. It was an attack on your argument, not you.

Come on man…

you are hiding over semantics. 

sure thing. Whatever 

[lou_fine]

On 10/20/2022 at 10:04 PM, COI said:

Exactly. A book priced as high as Hulk 181 is going to be slabbed; and for many copies, not just once.

 

On 10/21/2022 at 12:02 AM, COI said:

Is 20K for a near mint not enough incentive to at least submit the books? 

I would definitely agree with you 110% that these types of books do indeed get graded and slabbed, but only upon time of sale.  

If you are referring to copies being held in the private collections of long time collectors though, they are most likely still in raw HG condition as there is absolutely no reason to have them graded until it comes time to sell them.    

Edited October 22, 2022 by lou_fine

[Microchip]

On 10/22/2022 at 6:39 PM, D2 said:

On 10/22/2022 at 1:57 PM, COI said:

Nope, not personal. A little snarky maybe, but your argument about hoarding relies on predicting the future (a time where people no longer hoard), hence the crystal ball comment. It was an attack on your argument, not you.

Come on man…

you are hiding over semantics. 

sure thing. Whatever 

No one has time to nurse maid your interpretations.   Stand up, own your own words, don't go around telling other people what you think they said.

[BraveDave]

For those hoarding IH181 as speculative “investments” they are now down about 30%+ from peak. If most of the hoarding is from a truly long-term view (and they hold for decades more as a group) then the market price may continue to outperform. If they (as a generalized group) interpret an MCU appearance as a catalyst to realize higher values, then I expect the price to plummet further. I think parallels can be drawn from crypto and other speculative “investments” - where the speculative portion of the market was paramount over the past few years. If you ignore the top two assets (down about 70% from peak) most assets are down more like 90-99%. The macro environment was merely a catalyst for a speculative unwind, not the basis for those price movements (eg interest rates increasing 300+ basis points don’t logically drive a 90% price decline).

I seriously doubt those owning multiple IH181 copies are looking to hold as long-term (decade+) investments from these prices forward. When an MCU appearance fails to drive prices higher but does signal a removal of catalyst, prices will likely drop.

I don’t expect the book to NOT be worth relatively good $, just more in line with equally important books relative to supply. Likely about 25-50% of today’s price.

Edited October 22, 2022 by BraveDave

[alexgross.com]

guys, enough bickering. we don't need yet another thread to be locked. 

hulk 181 is a divisive book. some of us think it's a good investment from a financial point of view based on the years long history of the book and the endless demand for it. others think it is not going to continue to grow because of a seemingly endlessly growing supply. 

TO EACH HIS OWN! you are not going to convince anyone here that you are right. if someone truly annoys you, just put them on ignore. 

this thread is about the overall market, of which doug's "auction" of a 181 9.8 is but one example recently. as everyone but the most blind are aware, most of the market is quite down from a year ago. all the early spidey stuff i have bought or bid on though is still extremely strong, unfortunately. 

[DC#]

To aid in getting back on topic - will start doing a recap of current Clink Focused Auction this week.   Again, it is likely I will only do session 1 as the entire auction is close to 12,000 listings.    That is still a lot of supply considering these auctions still tend to be back to back to back (this one ends on 11/15 and the next starts on 11/17). 

[paqart]

On 10/22/2022 at 4:20 AM, lou_fine said:

 

I would definitely agree with you 110% that these types of books do indeed get graded and slabbed, but only upon time of sale.  

If you are referring to copies being held in the private collections of long time collectors though, they are most likely still in raw HG condition as there is absolutely no reason to have them graded until it comes time to sell them.    

"time to sell them". It took CGC almost exactly a year to turn around 100 comics I sent them. That is too slow to wait until it is time to sell before submitting.

[lou_fine]

On 10/22/2022 at 7:35 AM, paqart said:

"time to sell them". It took CGC almost exactly a year to turn around 100 comics I sent them. That is too slow to wait until it is time to sell before submitting.

Were they all in the same valuation category as mid-grade or higher Hulk 181's or potential 9.8 HG copies of Spidey 300 because I believe books in this tier  category would go through the CCS/CGC "storage warehouse facility" a lot faster than that, especially when submitted by the auction houses on your behalf who apparently has a large volume favored customer status?  

I definitely do get the illiquidity problem from a turnaround POV (i.e. pressing, slabbing, auction) when it comes to comic books as an investment, especially when it makes no economic, storage, or pure enjoyment sense at all to have every single book in your comic collection graded and slabbed in one of those bulky industrial looking holders of theirs.    

Edited October 22, 2022 by lou_fine

[Pantodude]

There are big-boy books from all eras that could appreciate over time, perhaps even significantly (a good bet, historically!).  For folks who insist on maximizing their net gain from the eventual sale of such books, it makes cents to have such books slabbed like yesterday.  If you submit for slabbing now and sell now (well, now-ish after the inevitable delay in getting the books back), slabbed books generally fare significantly better than raws on resale.  If you instead wait to both slab and sell later, same expectation:  you'll fare better selling slabs, but now you must also add the cost of grading what could have become a much more expensive book as a percentage of FMV.  Maybe this is less compelling, for lack of a better word, for non-big boy books?    

I don't like extra costs, but I assume folks don't mind paying for a service if it's beneficial, as grading has proven to be.  And if it's a definite that they want to maximize net gains on sale day (and w/ the least hassle and delay to boot), it seems like grading sooner (like yesterday!) rather than later is the way to go. 

And that's before factoring in the planning benefit, during all those years, of having the more determinable FMV of slabbed books instead of the more abstract potential FMV of raw books. Even putting aside the prospect of appreciation and thus greater slabbing costs down the road, there is peace of mind to consider.  Now that we are going through some potentially protracted volatility, some folks, perhaps more so than in prior years, might prefer to have more concrete info about their books (as by slabbing) instead of sitting on a nest of unhatched eggs, so to speak.  

 

Edited October 23, 2022 by Pantodude
clean up

[paqart]

On 10/22/2022 at 5:49 PM, Pantodude said:

There are big-boy books from all eras that could apreciate over time, perhaps even significantly (a good bet, historically!).  For folks who insist on maximizing their net gain from the eventual sale of such books, it makes cents to have such books slabbed like yesterday.  If you submit for slabbing now and sell now (well, now-ish after the inevitable delay in getting the books back), slabbed books generally fare significantly better than raws on resale.  If you instead wait to both slab and sell later, same expectation:  you'll fare better selling slabs, but now you must also add the cost of grading what could have become a much more expensive book as a percentage of FMV.  Maybe this is less compelling, for lack of a better word, for non-big boy books?    

I don't like extra costs, but I assume folks don't mind paying for a service if it's beneficial, as grading has proven to be.  And if it's a definite that they want to maximize net gains on sale day (and w/ the least hassle and delay to boot), it seems like grading sooner (like yesterday!) rather than later is the way to go. 

And that's before factoring in the planning benefit, during all those years, of having the more determinable FMV of slabbed books instead of the more abstract potential FMV of raw books. Even putting aside the prospect of appreciation and thus greater slabbing costs down the road, there is peace of mind to consider.  Now that we are going through some potentially protracted volatility, some folks, perhaps more so than in prior years, might prefer to have more concrete info about their books (as by slabbing) instead of sitting on a nest of unhatched eggs, so to speak.  

 

  

Here is a comic I didn't slab, and others I did. All down to slabbing costs.

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 10/22/2022 at 8:44 PM, paqart said:

Here is a comic I didn't slab, and others I did. All down to slabbing costs.

You chose not to slab the only one of these four books that has any value?

[lou_fine]

On 10/22/2022 at 5:44 PM, paqart said:

Here is a comic I didn't slab, and others I did. All down to slabbing costs.

 

On 10/22/2022 at 7:35 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

You chose not to slab the only one of these four books that has any value?

Yes, can you please explain your rationale to us as although slabbing costs are indeed important, what's even more important is the added value (if any at all which does NOT appear to be for your Spidey book) to the book by having it certified.  

From what I am seeing here, it would appear that your Spidey book would have to be at least in CGC 9.8 to have any chance of breaking even on the cost of slabbing.  The Hulk 102, on the other hand would appear to be an easy money maker for virtually all grades across the entire condition spectrum right down to something as low as CGC 2.0.    

[Readcomix]

On 10/22/2022 at 11:10 PM, lou_fine said:

 

Yes, can you please explain your rationale to us as although slabbing costs are indeed important, what's even more important is the added value (if any at all which does NOT appear to be for your Spidey book) to the book by having it certified.  

From what I am seeing here, it would appear that your Spidey book would have to be at least in CGC 9.8 to have any chance of breaking even on the cost of slabbing.  The Hulk 102, on the other hand would appear to be an easy money maker for virtually all grades across the entire condition spectrum right down to something as low as CGC 2.0.    

Taking a guess here … @paqart Did you work on that Spidey book? 

PS — Saw your Dr. Strange print for sale in Alterniverse; cool, moody take on Doc! 

 

[lou_fine]

On 10/22/2022 at 8:35 PM, Readcomix said:

Taking a guess here … @paqart Did you work on that Spidey book? 

Well, if that's the case, then it does make all the difference in the world as money is indeed not everything when it comes to something personal like this.  

[paqart]

On 10/22/2022 at 11:35 PM, Readcomix said:

Taking a guess here … @paqart Did you work on that Spidey book? 

PS — Saw your Dr. Strange print for sale in Alterniverse; cool, moody take on Doc! 

 

No, I didn't work on it, though not a bad guess.That said, I don't think I've slabbed any of the comics I've worked on.The reason I slabbed a certain group of comics, 100 in all, is that they are all newsstand editions. About 8 of them are also 1999-2000 price variants. By "price variant" I do not mean that the newsstand has a different price than the direct but that within the newsstand edition, there are several different prices. My rationale for sending these in is that for the time being, FMV at CGC ignores newsstand status. It seemed to me that as soon as that policy changes, it might cost a lot more to slab newsstands, so I sent these in while slabbing costs were at a minimum. As newsstand, though 9.8 is still a great grade, it is unusual to find them as high as 9.6, making 9.6 a good acceptable grade. As for the price variants, they are so rare that I had all of mine graded regardless of condition.

I have other comics that are more obvious candidates for slabbing: my Barks ducks, a very nice copy of Four Color 199, for instance, early issues from the SA Captain America run, the Avengers 93-96 story arc (all in UK editions), etc. The problem with all of these comics is they cost $100 or more apiece to slab. I'd like to slab them but not at those prices.

[paqart]

On 10/22/2022 at 11:10 PM, lou_fine said:

 

Yes, can you please explain your rationale to us as although slabbing costs are indeed important, what's even more important is the added value (if any at all which does NOT appear to be for your Spidey book) to the book by having it certified.  

From what I am seeing here, it would appear that your Spidey book would have to be at least in CGC 9.8 to have any chance of breaking even on the cost of slabbing.  The Hulk 102, on the other hand would appear to be an easy money maker for virtually all grades across the entire condition spectrum right down to something as low as CGC 2.0.    

Here are some newsstands with more obvious value. If you aren't familiar with these, you might be surprised what they can go for. I recently lost an auction for a newsstand Red Hulk #16 (first red She-Hulk). I dropped out at $200 or so, and it sold for $800.

[paqart]

On 10/22/2022 at 12:50 AM, Steven Valdez said:

Collecting newsstand 'variants' reminds me of those guys who collect editions of records based on their slightly differing matrix numbers and not the actual music they contain. It's where things start getting creepy.

I disagree. By the same logic, there is no difference between the original edition of a comic and reprints made decades later. The history of the original is part of the appeal. With newsstands, their history is quite different from directs and that makes them more interesting to me on its own. Secondarily, I very much enjoy the difficulty of finding them. That may seem silly but then so would a lot of other things. Golf, for instance.

[alexanderjk]

On 10/21/2022 at 9:50 PM, Steven Valdez said:

Collecting newsstand 'variants' reminds me of those guys who collect editions of records based on their slightly differing matrix numbers and not the actual music they contain. It's where things start getting creepy.

Weird statement. Some of us collect newsstand editions out of nostalgia. I bought a bar-coded Power Pack #1 off the rack — along with countless issues of X-Men, Daredevil, and the Avengers — so that’s the edition that has the most value to me. 

[valiantman]

On 10/21/2022 at 11:50 PM, Steven Valdez said:

Collecting newsstand 'variants' reminds me of those guys who collect editions of records based on their slightly differing matrix numbers and not the actual music they contain. It's where things start getting creepy.

Jumping into the conversation (where people have been disagreeing with you), I'll agree with you that buying comics based upon "not the actual (pages) they contain" is a dangerous hobby. A super rare version of "nothing special" whether it's a newsstand, a price variant, or just a super-limited-greatest-artist-in-the-world-for-sure-no-kidding variant cover is something wrapped around nothing.  They remind me of "kit cars" from back in the day, which were popular for about a minute-and-a-half in the 1980s. The guts are real, the guts are even original (not reproduction), but the guts are nothing special (just a regular engine on a standard vehicle base).

Somewhat ironically, that magazine is from a newsstand in the 1980s, which is the only place I would have found comics in my town, next to kit car magazine and Hit Parader.  We didn't have a comic shop, so direct editions weren't available where I lived.

Nostalgia PLUS something inside the book is a great way to specialize. ASM #300 is a nice book but really common (especially direct editions), but ASM #300 newsstand in high grade... well, that's something extra because the contents matter and comic shops weren't protecting fresh newsstands with bags and boards. 

Super rare cover of any kind where the regular edition is bargain bin? Something nice wrapped around nothing special.

Edited October 24, 2022 by valiantman

[Steven Valdez]

On 10/24/2022 at 11:36 AM, valiantman said:

Jumping into the conversation (where people have been disagreeing with you), I'll agree with you that buying comics based upon "not the actual (pages) they contain" is a dangerous hobby. A super rare version of "nothing special" whether it's a newsstand, a price variant, or just a super-limited-greatest-artist-in-the-world-for-sure-no-kidding variant cover is something wrapped around nothing.  They remind me of "kit cars" from back in the day, which were popular for about a minute-and-a-half in the 1980s. The guts are real, the guts are even original (not reproduction), but the guts are nothing special (just a regular engine on a standard vehicle base).

Somewhat ironically, that magazine is from a newsstand in the 1980s, which is the only place I would have found comics in my town, next to kit car magazine and Hit Parader.  We didn't have a comic shop, so direct editions weren't available where I lived.

Nostalgia PLUS something inside the book is a great way to specialize. ASM #300 is a nice book but really common (especially direct editions), but ASM #300 newsstand in high grade... well, that's something extra because the contents matter and comic shops weren't protecting fresh newsstands with bags and boards. 

Super rare cover of any kind where the regular edition is bargain bin? Something nice wrapped around nothing special.

Right. I've never understood collecting for the sake of 'rarity' alone, rather than for the perceived excellence of the item sought. Reminds me of the time I sent a list of vinyl records I was looking for to generalist collector. He wrote back that he actually had a few of them, but he was now going to be keeping them because they must be rare if I didn't have them. He admitted he didn't care for them one way or another, he was aroused by their scarcity alone.

But collecting newsstand editions of comics is just something else entirely. The barcode or lack thereof is simply not exciting.

Edited October 24, 2022 by Steven Valdez
typo