Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[lou_fine]

On 11/2/2022 at 9:17 PM, zosocane said:

What a bloodbath.  

 

On 11/3/2022 at 9:42 PM, Nick Furious said:

The sales data is limited, and I haven't done much research, but I get the sense that prices on E.C. and Horror comics are holding up...E.C. Horror in particular.  

How about Gold Key's since it was certainly NOT a bloodbath for a couple of them in Dougie's Heritage Auction this past Thursday, although I must admit I do love the strength of that blood red cover on the Scobby book:  

https://comics.ha.com/itm/silver-age-1956-1969-/science-fiction/star-trek-1-gold-key-1967-cgc-nm-96-white-pages/a/40208-81416.s?ic16=ViewItem-Auction-Archive-PreviousPricesHeritage-081514#

 

https://comics.ha.com/itm/bronze-age-1970-1979-/scooby-doo-1-gold-key-1970-cgc-nm-92-off-white-to-white-pages/a/40208-81403.s?ic16=ViewItem-BrowseTabs-Auction-Archive-ArchiveSearchResults-012417&lotPosition=0|0#

Especially since Schmell was still able to sell both of these at more than double his original purchase price even after cracking them out and then failing to get an upgrade on either of them.  Poor Dougie had to settle for only a mere $45,600 on the Star Trek 1 after he had paid only $20,400 for it back in November of 2019 and also having gotten lucky earlier with the Scobby Doo 1 selling for $12,600 after he had paid only $6K for it back in March of 2020.  

Edited November 6, 2022 by lou_fine

[dikran]

He took a bath on a few on his Disney Duck books though, a market I follow very closely. A few upgrades didn’t pan out so well for him. 

[Tec-Tac-Toe]

I was a low(er) offer on a Detective Comics 433 CGC 9.8 and still offered far too much. Thankfully, from my first CGC graded comic book purchase, like many here, I realized that for almost all Bronze Age comic books there is always another CGC graded 9.8 copy sooner or later that, typically, sells for less, perhaps much less, than previous copies. Of course, that did not prevent me in years past from overpaying for certain comic books that, also thankfully, other copies far more often than not have sold for substantially more than I paid for mine.

[DC#]

Here is my Dow 30 updated for October (for those interested in the methodology I have added the original post in the quote below) with updated annual CAGRs.     2022 (Oct to Oct) has been very rough but the CAGRs since 2016 remain very, very healthy (27% total with all ages well above 20%).  

For October itself....

Silver was down 18% vs Oct  21, down 9% vs July 22

Bronze was down 12% vs Oct 21, down 10% vs July 22

Copper/Modern was down 21% vs Oct 21, down 11% vs July 22

In aggregate down 17% vs Oct 21 and down 10% vs July 22

 

 

On 12/23/2021 at 2:36 PM, DC# said:

I finally finished my version of the "DOW 30" for comic books for those interested in a more aggregate look at the trends.    I am sure any statistician here can find the errors in the development my sample pool but it is what it is.    Here is the general breakdown:

• 10 books each from Silver, Bronze, and Copper/Modern and 3 CGC grades per book.   So total view is across 90 graded books.
• I tried to pick titles/issues at grades that had sufficient sales velocity - and picked books that have been consistent "key issues" over the years (no hot today - dead tomorrow).    Balance of big keys and every-day keys at a range of values.    So there is not an Avengers 1 or X-men 1 in 9.6 for example.   But for Modern/Copper included a lot of 9.8s since that is really where the market is.   
• This is a quarterly snapshot (Jan, April, July, Oct) between 2016 and 2021 so it won't necessarily show the monthly peaks.   Took the average of all sales in the month of Jan/Apri/Jul/Oct - except in Modern where I took the average of the last 2 sales in that month (just too many damn copies sold per month and I ran out of steam).   If there was no sales in that month - I took the last sale regardless of what month it occurred.    

Here are the books/grades this tracks (apologies to Gold collectors)

Silver

• Avengers 1 5.0/4.0/3.0
• X-Men 1 4.5/4.0/2.5
• Tales of Suspense 39  5.0/3.5/3/0
• Fantastic Four 48  8.0/6.0/4.0
• Batman 181 6.0/4.0/3.0
• Daredevil 1. 6.0/5.0/3.5
• Spider-man 50  8.0/6.0/4.0
• Silver Surfer 1 8.0/6.0/4.0
• Iron Man 1 8.0/6.0/4.0
• Flash 139  7.0/6.0/5.0

Bronze

• Hulk 181 9.2/8.0/6/0
• Giant Size X-men 1 9.4/8.5/6.5
• Marvel Spotlight 5. 8.5/7.5/6.5
• Spider-man 129   8.5/7.5/6.5
• Tomb of Dracula 10   9.2/8.0/6.5
• House of Secrets 92.  8.5/7.0/4.0
• DC Comics Presents 26.  9.8/9.6/9.2
• Batman 232.  8.5/7.5/6.0
• Iron Man 55.  9.4/8.5/7.5
• Star Wars 1.  9.8/9.6/9.0

Copper/Modern

• Spider-man 300.  9.8/9.4/9.0
• Ultimate Fallout 4.  9.8/9.6/9.4
• Batman Adventures 12  9.8/9.6/9.4
• X-men 266. 9.8/9.4/9.2
• Young Avengers 1.  9.8/9.6/9.4
• New Mutants 98.   9.8/9.6/9.4
• Swamp Thing 37. 9.8/9.6/9.4
• Edge of Spider-verse 2.  9.8/9.6/9.4
• Hulk 340.  9.8/9.6/9.4
• Wolverine 1 (88).  9.8/9.6/9.4

 

Overall this analysis looks a lot like the performance chart of any single book you look at on GPA.    The January results will be an indicator of much of a correction the market started to show as of Oct.     The returns here have been very strong since 2016 with a bit of a pause in 2019.  Even if 2021 had been flat-ish it would have been a good 5 year run.  

 

 

 

[Sweet Lou 14]

Wait, you're saying that a guy who already owns his own auction web site chose to list his books on Heritage instead?

What does that say to anyone considering listing their books in a Pedigree auction?

[MetalPSI]

[Ryan.]

On 11/6/2022 at 12:54 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Wait, you're saying that a guy who already owns his own auction web site chose to list his books on Heritage instead?

What does that say to anyone considering listing their books in a Pedigree auction?

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 11/6/2022 at 6:07 PM, Ryan. said:

On 11/6/2022 at 12:54 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Wait, you're saying that a guy who already owns his own auction web site chose to list his books on Heritage instead?

What does that say to anyone considering listing their books in a Pedigree auction?

Expand  

[Ryan.]

On 11/6/2022 at 6:32 PM, THE_BEYONDER said:

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 11/6/2022 at 6:44 PM, Mrs. Tux said:

I hope those people already know he's a lawyer who got disbarred for stealing his geriatric clients' money to fund his million dollar comic collection 

I had no idea what this was about so I did a little searching.  I'm sharing a couple of links simply so that anyone who's curious can understand.

https://caselaw.findlaw.com/ny-supreme-court-appellate-division/1022446.html

[Tec-Tac-Toe]

On 11/6/2022 at 12:54 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Wait, you're saying that a guy who already owns his own auction web site chose to list his books on Heritage instead?

What does that say to anyone considering listing their books in a Pedigree auction?

As you may know, he auctioned off his Marvel collection perhaps ten years ago on HA. If I recall, the total sale was around $3.5 million.

[alexgross.com]

On 11/6/2022 at 5:04 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

I had no idea what this was about so I did a little searching.  I'm sharing a couple of links simply so that anyone who's curious can understand.

https://caselaw.findlaw.com/ny-supreme-court-appellate-division/1022446.html

i've definitely learned a thing or two from the boards over the last 5 years, like who are some of the shadier characters in the business. i would never bid on anything from his "auction" site and i don't trust any of his results either, for good reason. i'm sure there sre plenty of legit results acheived there, and i suspect some shenanigans may also happen. of course, no auction site is transparent and only on feebay can you see if someone is shilling an auction. so they should all be taken with a great deal of salt. 

[lou_fine]

On 11/6/2022 at 9:54 AM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Wait, you're saying that a guy who already owns his own auction web site chose to list his books on Heritage instead?

What does that say to anyone considering listing their books in a Pedigree auction?

 

On 11/7/2022 at 4:33 AM, Tec-Tac-Toe said:

As you may know, he auctioned off his Marvel collection perhaps ten years ago on HA. If I recall, the total sale was around $3.5 million.

Exactly right as he certainly wouldn't want to use some questionable 2nd or 3rd rate auction platform when it came to his own personal collection.  

It seems that all of the boardies that responded agreed with the second option as per a post which I had in another thread the other week:  

On 10/28/2022 at 2:42 PM, lou_fine said:

As for Schmell using Heritage to auction off his own books (like his multi-million SA Marvel collection years ago), I see two scenarios here:  

1)  A positive from the POV that he does not want the sale of his books to be seen as a potential conflict of interest if auctioned off on his own Pedigree website;  or

2)  A negative since he is well aware that his Pedigree website would not bring him top dollars for his own books and his site is meant only for unwitting "losers" who don't mind leaving money on the table when selling their books?  

Not sure about other boardies' opinions here, but based upon Doug's rather "sterling" reputation, I am tending to lean towards the second scenario here. 

 

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 11/7/2022 at 10:45 AM, alexgross.com said:

i've definitely learned a thing or two from the boards over the last 5 years, like who are some of the shadier characters in the business. i would never bid on anything from his "auction" site and i don't trust any of his results either, for good reason. i'm sure there sre plenty of legit results acheived there, and i suspect some shenanigans may also happen. of course, no auction site is transparent and only on feebay can you see if someone is shilling an auction. so they should all be taken with a great deal of salt. 

This was all news to me but I have to say I'm now wrestling with the question of whether I should bid on future Pedigree auctions.

I don't have any direct experience to support the allegation, but before I heard about the disbarment the one thing I'd heard about Doug was that shill bidding was rampant on his site.  In light of this, I have bid with caution on Pedigree and been very careful not to bid too aggressively on any books there.  I've gotten a few bargains as a result.

I also know from experience that many of the non-auction listings on the site are quite stale, and it's common to buy a book and be told by Doug "oops, yeah I haven't been in contact with that seller for a few years, that book isn't really available."

Now the question is whether to boycott the site as some kind of moral stand, presumably to punish him for whatever he did 15-20 years ago.  I'm not 100% sure that's the right thing to do here, but I'll be thinking about it.

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 11/7/2022 at 7:33 AM, Tec-Tac-Toe said:

As you may know, he auctioned off his Marvel collection perhaps ten years ago on HA. If I recall, the total sale was around $3.5 million.

I did know that, but what I don't recall is if the Pedigree Comics site existed before then.

[darkstar]

On 11/7/2022 at 3:42 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

This was all news to me but I have to say I'm now wrestling with the question of whether I should bid on future Pedigree auctions.

I don't have any direct experience to support the allegation, but before I heard about the disbarment the one thing I'd heard about Doug was that shill bidding was rampant on his site.  In light of this, I have bid with caution on Pedigree and been very careful not to bid too aggressively on any books there.  I've gotten a few bargains as a result.

I also know from experience that many of the non-auction listings on the site are quite stale, and it's common to buy a book and be told by Doug "oops, yeah I haven't been in contact with that seller for a few years, that book isn't really available."

Now the question is whether to boycott the site as some kind of moral stand, presumably to punish him for whatever he did 15-20 years ago.  I'm not 100% sure that's the right thing to do here, but I'll be thinking about it.

If the owner of an auction house is of questionable character and that is going to keep you from bidding on their auctions you should probably avoid Goldin and Heritage too. 

[Microchip]

On 11/8/2022 at 8:46 AM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

I did know that, but what I don't recall is if the Pedigree Comics site existed before then.

Yes, for quite a while, but Doug wasn't running auctions on pedigree at that time.    

[DC#]

Not to go back to old topics but somewhat related to the Pedigree conversation given the recent IH 181 9.8 sale.    Yet another 9.8 sold on Heritage last night for $90k.    So that was $125k on Pedigree, $148k on Clink (Sucha news), $86.4k on Goldin, and $90k on Heritage........all in the past 4 weeks or so.  

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 11/7/2022 at 3:01 PM, DC# said:

Not to go back to old topics but somewhat related to the Pedigree conversation given the recent IH 181 9.8 sale.    Yet another 9.8 sold on Heritage last night for $90k.    So that was $125k on Pedigree, $148k on Clink (Sucha news), $86.4k on Goldin, and $90k on Heritage........all in the past 4 weeks or so.  

4 9.8s in a months time?   Wonder how many more will come out over the next 30 days....

My LCS just slabbed a copy, so you can expect the census to increase by at least one.

[piper]

I haven't looked at GPA for 9.8 copies but $90k still feels like a strong price when compared to 3 years ago.

(I'm quite happy with my 8.5 copy purchased many moons ago...)

Edited November 7, 2022 by piper