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Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit???
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Started by InfantTerrible,

7,152 posts in this topic

THE_BEYONDER

THE_BEYONDER

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On 3/18/2023 at 5:09 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

What reason other than deciding he doesn't want to keep investing in his web site because he figures it's good enough as is?

Maybe he sees a benefit to having a ton of tracking bids on everything. (shrug)

 

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VintageComics

VintageComics

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On 3/15/2023 at 6:13 PM, mjoeyoung said:

Inflation seems stubbornly resistant at 6%.

Not directed at you but it needs to be said:

IT'S TRANSIENT.

Inside joke. Carry on. 

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VintageComics

VintageComics

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On 3/15/2023 at 6:13 PM, mjoeyoung said:

We haven't had a "Doom and Gloom" post on the economy in awhile so I'm here to provide. :devil:

Inflation seems stubbornly resistant at 6%.

Individuals in the U.S. have gone from a record savings rate during the pandemic to record credit card debt with 20% interest rates.

10,000 more job cuts from Meta/Facebook.

Silicon Valley Bank failure caused by a panic run on the bank and the threat of more to come.

Will the FED raise rates next week?  Nobody knows.  Last week the consensus was .5 raise, now it is 50/50 between 0 and .25.

I'm seeing more and more talk about a recession later this year.

I'm seeing more memes on instagram about comic buying blowing budgets.

So what does this mean for comic values?   Late 2023 or early 2024 is still my guess for the economic nadir.  I still think that values are going to continue to move down from here. I'm still looking at Pre-2021 pricing to inform my buying decisions.  I'm buying when the price is right, but more often than not, I'm passing or being outbid.  There are definitely more deals out there, and I've been pleasantly surprised on a few purchases.  Patience is key. 

The SVB failure was mainly driven by the bank's investment strategies not being prepared for rising interest rates. 

I met a guy who is a high end banker leaning towards commercial real estate and I was dumbfounded at how ignorant and clueless he was. 

He kept saying things like "the market is in great shape" and "you can't lose". Inside my jaw dropped so I could scream. Outside I just smiled and tried to correct him. This was literally a few weeks before the bank collapse. 

He literally had no clue. None. Ziltch. Nada.

And I think he's pretty indicative of how most of the world functions. Most of these sock puppets doing their jobs in banking and finance and everywhere else are like the crew in The Wolf of Wall Street. They're just muppets chasing a profit with no clue how things actually work or what destruction they're sowing. 

Any high school drop out with half a brain can see what's happening but the most educated and "smartest" minds in the world can't. 

That's scary.

Edited by VintageComics
Spelling. Not to change the meaning of it. ;-p
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VintageComics

VintageComics

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On 3/17/2023 at 3:31 PM, dikran said:

ComicLink would be so much better if they had a watchlist option... 

I believe the strategy is that not having a watchlist encourages bidding. 

If you throw in a tracking bid, then you can watch it. 

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buttock

buttock

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On 3/18/2023 at 7:24 PM, VintageComics said:

I believe the strategy is that not having a watchlist encourages bidding. 

If you throw in a tracking bid, then you can watch it. 

I assume that's his rationale, but the problem is that everyone knows this, so all the early bids are just tracking bids and not placed with any intent to escalate the price.  Also other auction houses don't need these "false" bids to get high prices, so it's clear that they're unnecessary.  

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mjoeyoung

mjoeyoung

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On 3/17/2023 at 9:36 PM, MGsimba77 said:

Very anecdotal but several slabs I was tracking on CC tonight hammered VERY VERY strong! Two for record GPA. Some consignors are smiling!

I was wondering about a few sales where the price difference between the 9.8 and 9.6 was huge and what that might mean for the market.  For example:

X-Men #120 in 9.8 sells for $8600

X-Men #120 in 9.6 sells for $809

Census has 108 copies of the 9.8 and 347 for the 9.6.  10x multiple vs. about a 5x multiple in 2018.

Ultimate Fallout #4 9.8 Variant for $35755

Ultimate Fallout #4 9.6 Variant for $8250

173 = 9.8s and 242 = 9.6s.  Four times plus multiple now vs. 2x plus in 2021.

I'm just wondering if the multiples are going to stick if prices continue to decline.

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THE_BEYONDER

THE_BEYONDER

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On 3/19/2023 at 12:34 AM, mjoeyoung said:

I was wondering about a few sales where the price difference between the 9.8 and 9.6 was huge and what that might mean for the market.  For example:

X-Men #120 in 9.8 sells for $8600

X-Men #120 in 9.6 sells for $809

Census has 108 copies of the 9.8 and 347 for the 9.6.  10x multiple vs. about a 5x multiple in 2018.

Ultimate Fallout #4 9.8 Variant for $35755

Ultimate Fallout #4 9.6 Variant for $8250

173 = 9.8s and 242 = 9.6s.  Four times plus multiple now vs. 2x plus in 2021.

I'm just wondering if the multiples are going to stick if prices continue to decline.

10x multiple on the 120 is crazy

If 10 slabbed 9.6s were stacked on a table, would anyone really choose a single 9.8 over them?

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COI

COI

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Posted
On 3/18/2023 at 9:18 PM, VintageComics said:

 

Any high school drop out with half a brain can see what's happening but the most educated and "smartest" minds in the world can't. 

That's scary.

Are you saying the most educated and smartest minds don't have half a brain or a high school diploma? I would've assumed that a high school diploma was a necessary condition for being in the "most educated" group. :baiting:

We don't know what we don't know, and expertise in anything 1) takes a lifetime to acquire and 2) doesn't come with psychic powers and 3) doesn't bestow anyone with the superhuman ability to either collect all the information there is, or to perfectly interpret the information that is available. 

And no amount of intelligence or expertise can completely liberate us from the bugs in our system; cognitive dissonance, confirmation bias, motivated reasoning, perverse incentives, etc. And that includes the Monday morning quarterback mode of thinking you're employing here. 

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GermanFan

GermanFan

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Posted
On 3/19/2023 at 2:18 AM, VintageComics said:

The SVB failure was mainly driven by the bank's investment strategies not being prepared for rising interest rates. 

I met a guy who is a high end banker leaning towards commercial real estate and I was dumbfounded at how ignorant and clueless he was. 

He kept saying things like "the market is in great shape" and "you can't lose". Inside my jaw dropped so I could scream. Outside I just smiled and tried to correct him. This was literally a few weeks before the bank collapse. 

He literally had no clue. None. Ziltch. Nada.

And I think he's pretty indicative of how most of the world functions. Most of these sock puppets doing their jobs in banking and finance and everywhere else are like the crew in The Wolf of Wall Street. They're just muppets chasing a profit with no clue how things actually work or what destruction they're sowing. 

Any high school drop out with half a brain can see what's happening but the most educated and "smartest" minds in the world can't. 

That's scary.

There is street smart and there is book smart. If you got only one of these you are half smart. Winner is who has both. Sucker is who has none of the two.

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dikran

dikran

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On 3/18/2023 at 9:24 PM, VintageComics said:

I believe the strategy is that not having a watchlist encourages bidding. 

If you throw in a tracking bid, then you can watch it. 

They have enough quality books to not need to resort to such nickel and dime strategies

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drbanner

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One advantage of placing tracking bids vs. using a watch feature on ComicLink is that once you place a bid on a book, you have a permanent record of that sale. Otherwise, you can't look up previous auction results...just like on ebay, ComicConnect, and most auction sites (Heritage being the exception).

I doubt tracking bids affect the final sales price of very many books at all, they have so many books and such a deep bench of bidders that the effect is likely negligible.

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Stefan_W

Stefan_W

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On 3/19/2023 at 11:01 AM, drbanner said:

I doubt tracking bids affect the final sales price of very many books at all, they have so many books and such a deep bench of bidders that the effect is likely negligible.

Agreed. 

It is sort of like putting stickers on the back of sold slabs thinking that this is somehow an advertisement for their auctions. Procedure is laid out and it sometimes takes a while for rational thought to catch up. 

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