Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[drbanner]

On 3/13/2023 at 3:18 PM, Stefan_W said:

What on Earth was up with that MP15? So much red and yet that book roars in at over double current value. 

Yaeh, that was pretty impressive. Whileprices are generally down ComicLink does get some crazy bids on HG Silver and Bronze. For books that are in demand and only come up for sale a few times a year it only takes 2 to push up prices.

[batmiesta]

On 3/14/2023 at 12:51 AM, drbanner said:

You can definitely find some good deals on Heritage outside of the blockbuster books as Heritage caters more to the high end investor types who can’t be bothered to dive through the “dollar” boxes (okay, maybe more like the thousands or tens of thousand dollar boxes). The big $$ buyers have bidders working on their behalf anyway, it’s not like they’re sitting around at home hitting the refresh button when these auctions go off. 

It’s just how Halperin set it up.

They must have been on holiday when I sold my 9.8s on Heritage, the .

[batmiesta]

On 3/14/2023 at 12:57 AM, drbanner said:

Yaeh, that was pretty impressive. Whileprices are generally down ComicLink does get some crazy bids on HG Silver and Bronze. For books that are in demand and only come up for sale a few times a year it only takes 2 to push up prices.

True, but there is usually a MP #15 9.6 in nearly every Clink auction, it's a book I would like in 9.6, but I know when to bow out and wait for the next one. 

[lou_fine]

On 3/13/2023 at 4:49 PM, batmiesta said:

On 3/13/2023 at 12:18 PM, Stefan_W said:

What on Earth was up with that MP15? So much red and yet that book roars in at over double current value. 

Yeah! That was another head scratcher. 

Well, I imagine it really depends if that result is based upon only one single sale which could then be nothing more than a potential outlier and hence irrelevant. 

Now, if that reported result here was based upon an average of a number of sales, then that would be a much more meaningful number for comparison purposes.  

[mjoeyoung]

We haven't had a "Doom and Gloom" post on the economy in awhile so I'm here to provide. 

Inflation seems stubbornly resistant at 6%.

Individuals in the U.S. have gone from a record savings rate during the pandemic to record credit card debt with 20% interest rates.

10,000 more job cuts from Meta/Facebook.

Silicon Valley Bank failure caused by a panic run on the bank and the threat of more to come.

Will the FED raise rates next week?  Nobody knows.  Last week the consensus was .5 raise, now it is 50/50 between 0 and .25.

I'm seeing more and more talk about a recession later this year.

I'm seeing more memes on instagram about comic buying blowing budgets.

So what does this mean for comic values?   Late 2023 or early 2024 is still my guess for the economic nadir.  I still think that values are going to continue to move down from here. I'm still looking at Pre-2021 pricing to inform my buying decisions.  I'm buying when the price is right, but more often than not, I'm passing or being outbid.  There are definitely more deals out there, and I've been pleasantly surprised on a few purchases.  Patience is key. 

 

[Microchip]

On 3/16/2023 at 9:13 AM, mjoeyoung said:

We haven't had a "Doom and Gloom" post on the economy in awhile so I'm here to provide. 

Inflation seems stubbornly resistant at 6%.

Individuals in the U.S. have gone from a record savings rate during the pandemic to record credit card debt with 20% interest rates.

10,000 more job cuts from Meta/Facebook.

Silicon Valley Bank failure caused by a panic run on the bank and the threat of more to come.

Will the FED raise rates next week?  Nobody knows.  Last week the consensus was .5 raise, now it is 50/50 between 0 and .25.

I'm seeing more and more talk about a recession later this year.

I'm seeing more memes on instagram about comic buying blowing budgets.

So what does this mean for comic values?   Late 2023 or early 2024 is still my guess for the economic nadir.  I still think that values are going to continue to move down from here. I'm still looking at Pre-2021 pricing to inform my buying decisions.  I'm buying when the price is right, but more often than not, I'm passing or being outbid.  There are definitely more deals out there, and I've been pleasantly surprised on a few purchases.  Patience is key. 

 

According to the dealers, things are still moving well out there in Convention land.

On 3/13/2023 at 4:45 AM, fastballspecial said:

Just finished our 3rd show yesterday.

The market is very healthy no matter what some tell you. 

Many dealers at the show set records for sales yesterday. Main sales for me were Batman, ASM,
and Moon Knight. Several requests for Man Thing as many are filling their holes. GA books were
selling very well across the board. I had more requests for War comics than I thought with one
buyer spending $500+ on silver,bronze and modern war books. (Not me another dealer). Saw
another seller sell alot of trades. Alot of Silver exchanged hands as well from buyer to buyer
and from dealer to dealer. 

While moderns sold for me I sold alot more late Bronze and Copper. I sold 50+ Star Wars books
from Dark Horse and Hasbro. Sold all my Max Carnage extras I brought to the show. (I have alot)
High grade ASM copper sold very well for me as well. Oddball request of the days were Ambush
bug, Camelot 3000, and Later issues of NFL super Pro no joke lol. (Set makers )

We live in a bubble on this board we are a fraction of the market keep that in mind. 

 

The last line is particularly valuable.

On 3/13/2023 at 4:53 AM, HouseofComics.Com said:

Thanks for the con report! Our Berkeley shows are staying strong too.

 

[mjoeyoung]

On 3/15/2023 at 4:47 PM, Microchip said:

According to the dealers, things are still moving well out there in Convention land.

Sure things are selling, but WHAT is selling, and at WHAT prices and WHO is buying?  I think there are two more interesting posts in that from jsilverjanet and fastballspecial's response:  

On 3/13/2023 at 7:37 AM, jsilverjanet said:

while the con (and I'll argue that it's only some cons) market may be strong, the online market certainly has taken a hit, many books are nowhere near the value of the previous years and and increased number of sellers (seems many more are liquidating) has reduced the amount of cash available

has anyone seen consistent online sales in the past 6 months near the levels where they were?

On 3/13/2023 at 5:56 PM, fastballspecial said:

So I have more time now. This is all related to inflation from covid and saturation in the slab market. I think I pointed this out last year. This year will bleed out sellers as they realize they cant make the money they were making and the dreaded 1099 looms for next year as well. Any common book in 9.8 is sitting right now due to saturation especially if its a modern book. 

What not is affected is the raw market especially Silver, Copper, and Bronze nice books. Doesn't even have to be keys. People are looking to fill their holes in collection while can. I probably had 5 buyers with books and 2 guys dinging their CLZ app for an hour looking at books they need.  The modern variant market and even Ross copies were not selling which surprised me I only sold a couple. This show I saw many more collectors than speculators and they made me happy. Its good sign for market health. I sold books to several people in their early 20s and collectors who drove from other states. 

Online sales require trust, prudence and patience. I would imagine in your area competition is much more fierce then mine. Even though I am amazed how many people all of sudden think they can be a dealer at a show. I had 5 calls last two weeks who all think there is an opening right before a show. (Even after I have said repeatedly we have been sold out months.) One guy wanted to talk me into just putting up a rack for him because he didnt have time to be there. (Quick guess who is on the bottom of my dealer list for the show.) Had someone told me a year ago I could get 20 dealers and then have a list of replacements I would have laughed. 

I stress to anyone with a large nice raw silver/bronze inventory that seriously look into doing a show. If anything just for the enjoyment of it.  I have a dealer who is 85 years old and has already told me he wants to do the next show. Sell while the market is good. There will come a time soon when it is not. 

 

I interpret these posts this way:  The BOOM and BUBBLE are over and it is going to take some time for everything to settle out.  Collectors are collecting (raws and runs and what they can afford) and speculators (who drove up prices) are leaving.  I agree that this is healthy, but I also think it means that values on a lot of books are going to continue to fall.  I think the economy is going to be terrible in the near future, and THAT is also going to contribute to lower prices.   Just because I think prices are going to fall does not mean I am predicting the death of comic collecting.

Edited March 16, 2023 by mjoeyoung

[Krismusic]

On 3/15/2023 at 6:13 PM, mjoeyoung said:

We haven't had a "Doom and Gloom" post on the economy in awhile so I'm here to provide. 

Inflation seems stubbornly resistant at 6%.

Individuals in the U.S. have gone from a record savings rate during the pandemic to record credit card debt with 20% interest rates.

10,000 more job cuts from Meta/Facebook.

Silicon Valley Bank failure caused by a panic run on the bank and the threat of more to come.

Will the FED raise rates next week?  Nobody knows.  Last week the consensus was .5 raise, now it is 50/50 between 0 and .25.

I'm seeing more and more talk about a recession later this year.

I'm seeing more memes on instagram about comic buying blowing budgets.

So what does this mean for comic values?   Late 2023 or early 2024 is still my guess for the economic nadir.  I still think that values are going to continue to move down from here. I'm still looking at Pre-2021 pricing to inform my buying decisions.  I'm buying when the price is right, but more often than not, I'm passing or being outbid.  There are definitely more deals out there, and I've been pleasantly surprised on a few purchases.  Patience is key. 

 

My thoughts are kind of the same way… but I think we are near the bottom as in canada census is rates will decline by end of 2023 to early 2024 that’s when I think prices will rise again…. I too am waiting on a great deal… on some key books for me… but I’m letting higher bids go ahead more than I’m use to do  because of this thinking and what we are seeing… also need to keep some egg and milk money hahah 

[Microchip]

On 3/16/2023 at 2:57 PM, mjoeyoung said:

Sure things are selling, but WHAT is selling, and at WHAT prices and WHO is buying?  I think there are two more interesting posts in that from jsilverjanet and fastballspecial's response:  

I interpret these posts this way:  The BOOM and BUBBLE are over and it is going to take some time for everything to settle out.  Collectors are collecting (raws and runs and what they can afford) and speculators (who drove up prices) are leaving.  I agree that this is healthy, but I also think it means that values on a lot of books are going to continue to fall.  I think the economy is going to be terrible in the near future, and THAT is also going to contribute to lower prices.   Just because I think prices are going to fall does not mean I am predicting the death of comic collecting.

I think there is an additional divisible level here, needing to be spoken to.

Books that have performed well, or boomed in the last 2 years, SOME of those books are cooling off.   And again we're seeing some books cooling off in certain grades only.

At the some time, now collectors are looking for the bargains out there, moving away from the higher priced books.

And the overall implication right now, is that there is still strong activity out there.   It might not be where you're looking, but a lot of people deep in the hobby are seeing strong activity.

 

[Robot Man]

On 3/15/2023 at 3:13 PM, mjoeyoung said:

We haven't had a "Doom and Gloom" post on the economy in awhile so I'm here to provide. 

Inflation seems stubbornly resistant at 6%.

Individuals in the U.S. have gone from a record savings rate during the pandemic to record credit card debt with 20% interest rates.

10,000 more job cuts from Meta/Facebook.

Silicon Valley Bank failure caused by a panic run on the bank and the threat of more to come.

Will the FED raise rates next week?  Nobody knows.  Last week the consensus was .5 raise, now it is 50/50 between 0 and .25.

I'm seeing more and more talk about a recession later this year.

I'm seeing more memes on instagram about comic buying blowing budgets.

So what does this mean for comic values?   Late 2023 or early 2024 is still my guess for the economic nadir.  I still think that values are going to continue to move down from here. I'm still looking at Pre-2021 pricing to inform my buying decisions.  I'm buying when the price is right, but more often than not, I'm passing or being outbid.  There are definitely more deals out there, and I've been pleasantly surprised on a few purchases.  Patience is key. 

 

All of this makes good fiscal common sense. But the experts aren’t counting on the mentality of collectors. Collectors are like drug addicts. They need to have that next cool thing. It is what makes us happy in even dark times.

I see many cutting back of being more selective but not stopping. Those who have money will be jumping on deals. I see the comic market, stalling a bit but don’t see it going away at least in my lifetime.

Patience in good times or bad has always been a good way to operate. Miss out on something and just keep walking. There is always more stuff down the road. 

[Brock]

On 3/15/2023 at 6:13 PM, mjoeyoung said:

Inflation seems stubbornly resistant at 6%.

Don’t forget, though, that this “general” rate of inflation also applies to the comic book market. That 6% is an average of inflation across all elements of the economy.

On 3/15/2023 at 6:13 PM, mjoeyoung said:

10,000 more job cuts from Meta/Facebook.

And yet job growth is at historic highs, and the unmet demand for workers is driving wages up (which is, in turn, one of the causes of inflation).

Not to mention that - historically - layoffs at tech companies lead to a surge of new tech startups.

 

I appreciate that you are providing the requisite “doom and gloom” updates that this thread mandates every two or three pages, but even the so-called bad news points to a much more nuanced situation in which we find ourselves.

[mjoeyoung]

On 3/16/2023 at 12:36 PM, Brock said:

Don’t forget, though, that this “general” rate of inflation also applies to the comic book market. That 6% is an average of inflation across all elements of the economy.

And yet job growth is at historic highs, and the unmet demand for workers is driving wages up (which is, in turn, one of the causes of inflation).

Not to mention that - historically - layoffs at tech companies lead to a surge of new tech startups.

 

I appreciate that you are providing the requisite “doom and gloom” updates that this thread mandates every two or three pages, but even the so-called bad news points to a much more nuanced situation in which we find ourselves.

Just doing my part.   Of course, I'm just making an educated guess based on my perception.  In no way am I suggesting that we are headed for a 2008 style recession or that there is some sort of existential threat to the economy.  The times are strange because of covid and all of the government stimulus.  I've just seen lots of people talking about "how this time is different" and bit by bit it seems to be turning out the same as all the other times.  It seems to me that the negatives are outweighing the positives and the negatives keep growing.  It is hard to fund your tech startup when the number one bank catering to Silicon Valley goes belly up.

On 3/15/2023 at 10:14 PM, Krismusic said:

My thoughts are kind of the same way… but I think we are near the bottom as in canada census is rates will decline by end of 2023 to early 2024 that’s when I think prices will rise again…. I too am waiting on a great deal… on some key books for me… but I’m letting higher bids go ahead more than I’m use to do  because of this thinking and what we are seeing… also need to keep some egg and milk money hahah 

I've been close a couple of times to pulling the trigger.  Patience is a virtue because it is so damn hard!   I think the worst that happens if I'm wrong is that these values stiffen and I pay the same price 6 or 12 months from now as I would right now.

[batmiesta]

Can someone explain why some sellers on ebay are asking over $1000 for a She Hulk #1 in 9.8, yet other sellers can't shift theirs when asking just over $400? That is just one example of many, baffles me. 

[ADAMANTIUM]

On 3/16/2023 at 6:17 PM, batmiesta said:

Can someone explain why some sellers on ebay are asking over $1000 for a She Hulk #1 in 9.8, yet other sellers can't shift theirs when asking just over $400? That is just one example of many, baffles me. 

Same boat with you on several, although I'm not sure specific books other than hulk 1 2008 or was it #2...

A few others too

[buttock]

On 3/16/2023 at 9:26 AM, Robot Man said:

All of this makes good fiscal common sense. But the experts aren’t counting on the mentality of collectors. Collectors are like drug addicts. They need to have that next cool thing. It is what makes us happy in even dark times.

I see many cutting back of being more selective but not stopping. Those who have money will be jumping on deals. I see the comic market, stalling a bit but don’t see it going away at least in my lifetime.

Patience in good times or bad has always been a good way to operate. Miss out on something and just keep walking. There is always more stuff down the road. 

Bob, how was Cal Comiccon for you?  I saw dealers' walls at the end of the show that were mostly empty.  Seemed like sales were absolutely booming.  

[KCOComics]

I got to visit SuperWorld in person today and Ted says business is booming. 

Smaller local shows I've gone to have all been packed.... I don't think experienced dealers are having a problem moving inventory. 

[Robot Man]

On 3/16/2023 at 4:48 PM, buttock said:

Bob, how was Cal Comiccon for you?  I saw dealers' walls at the end of the show that were mostly empty.  Seemed like sales were absolutely booming.  

Indeed! Pretty incredible. One of my best shows ever. I was taking money literally ALL day. People were buying stacks of books with very little or sometimes no discount. Maybe it was a little more odd and affordable stuff that many of the bigger dealers didn't bring. Almost sold my whole box of pulps. And contrary to public opinion, ALL genres sold even humor and westerns. People came to buy with full wallets. I got the feeling that most of the other dealers did real well too. The vintage comic market appears to be in real good shape.

The problem is, I'm kind of cleaned out. Will be hard to replace a lot of it...

[Robot Man]

On 3/16/2023 at 5:11 PM, KCOComics said:

I got to visit SuperWorld in person today and Ted says business is booming. 

Smaller local shows I've gone to have all been packed.... I don't think experienced dealers are having a problem moving inventory. 

It depends on what you have and how you price it. And who is showing up...

[buttock]

On 3/16/2023 at 6:12 PM, Robot Man said:

Indeed! Pretty incredible. One of my best shows ever. I was taking money literally ALL day. People were buying stacks of books with very little or sometimes no discount. Maybe it was a little more odd and affordable stuff that many of the bigger dealers didn't bring. Almost sold my whole box of pulps. And contrary to public opinion, ALL genres sold even humor and westerns. People came to buy with full wallets. I got the feeling that most of the other dealers did real well too. The vintage comic market appears to be in real good shape.

The problem is, I'm kind of cleaned out. Will be hard to replace a lot of it...

I didn't look at many tables because of how crowded it was.  People seemed to be walking out with stacks of purchased books.  The vintage stuff is smoking hot.  Glad you had a good show!

[mjoeyoung]

Marvel Family #1 in a 6.5 sold for $9750 on Comic Connect tonight.  Same book sold for $9010 in Aug 2020. Since 2020 there have been sales of 6.0 for $36K, a 5.0 for $17K, a 4.5 for $20k, and a 4.0 for $10K. Last sale was a 2.5 that sold for $6500 in January.