Post your Promise Collection wins! 17 17

[Superman2006]

On 4/6/2023 at 1:23 PM, MasterChief said:

On 4/6/2023 at 10:47 AM, Robot Man said:

Anybody see the Blue Beetle 44 7.0 that sold for $1,000. On the bay this week? I think it is the first Promise book I have noticed there. I have no idea what it originally sold for. I wouldn’t have paid $1K for it Promise or not. Just interesting to see them being retreaded. 

That eBay book is a counterfeit. It's not the Promise copy.

Just a cursory comparison of the two covers is a dead giveaway.

eBay: Blue beetle #44 CGC 7.0 from the Promise collection! Rare Find!!!

Heritage Auction  #122213: Blue Beetle #44 The Promise Collection Pedigree (Fox Features Syndicate, 1946) Condition: VG+

When you say the "eBay book is a counterfeit", I think you just mean that it's not a Promise copy, as opposed to actually being a counterfeit book or counterfeit CGC label, right?

When I look up the cert # from the eBay copy, 4146370007, it shows up on the CGC census as being a CGC 7.0 copy of Blue Beetle #44 from the Promise Collection.

Maybe there was more than one Promise copy of Blue Beetle #44, even if Heritage just auctioned off the lower graded copy?

 

[Superman2006]

On 3/31/2023 at 1:06 AM, MasterChief said:

Update!

Current Promise Collection ROI snapshot.

Chart includes 39 auctions closed in March.

Data sorted oldest to newest Sale Date.

Note: Currently tracking 19 Heritage lots that will close April 1 – 6. Those sales with be reported with April's update.   

(Source: Heritage Auctions (HA), Comic Connect (CC), ComicLink (CL), eBay)

I really like your second chart showing a summary of month-over-month Gains / Losses on Promise books.

As time passes, assuming the Golden Age market continues is upward trajectory, there may eventually only be gains from month-to-month, but the results in the early years seems to suggest that the books that have returned to market so far have fared about as well as purchasing an average new car from a dealer, and driving it off the lot.  Given decreased values on Silver / Bronze / Modern books, sports cards, and various other non-comics assets, an average loss of 20% on the Promise books doesn't sound too bad.

[MasterChief]

On 4/6/2023 at 9:08 AM, Superman2006 said:

When you say the "eBay book is a counterfeit", I think you just mean that it's not a Promise copy, as opposed to actually being a counterfeit book or counterfeit CGC label, right?

[CGC Mike]

On 4/6/2023 at 2:51 PM, buttock said:

On 4/6/2023 at 1:23 PM, MasterChief said:

That eBay book is a counterfeit. It's not the Promise copy.

Just a cursory comparison of the two covers is a dead giveaway.

eBay: Blue beetle #44 CGC 7.0 from the Promise collection! Rare Find!!!

Heritage Auction  #122213: Blue Beetle #44 The Promise Collection Pedigree (Fox Features Syndicate, 1946) Condition: VG+

 

Expand  

@CGC Mike@mnelsonCGC

I'll pass this on to the team.

[Dr. Love]

Two step fiasco

First step - Most of the raw Promise auctions I looked up refer to an included COA, but don't actually show the cert.  This Blue Beetle 44 did. At least in this case, HA issued a raw ped cert without any grade.  Unlike the Crippen cert.  This allows that generic cert to be submitted with any copy of that issue.  If this is what happened here, then HA pure fail for not including the grade they assigned to the book for auction.

Second step - shyster with a modicum of intelligence and some cunning submits a higher non Promise grade copy of that issue with the carte blanche cert, counting on CGC's grading process to not run a check against the HA image of the raw book.  CGC:  too much time, too much trouble?  CGC:  why would anyone game the system?  If this is what happened here, then CGC pure fail.

btw - in terms of opportunity - out of approx 813 Promise raw, 191 are the grades that could be exploited for this type of scheme - between Poor and VG/F.

Edited April 7, 2023 by Dr. Love

[MasterChief]

On 4/6/2023 at 2:17 PM, CGC Mike said:

I'll pass this on to the team.

Thanks Mike!

[MasterChief]

Update!

With the close of today's Heritage Auction, 19 Promise's sold were added to the ROI snapshot for April.

Data sorted oldest to newest Sale Date.

(Source: Heritage Auctions (HA), Comic Connect (CC), ComicLink (CL), eBay)
 

 

Edited April 7, 2023 by MasterChief

[tth2]

Wow, Schmell took a $11,394 loss on the Promise books he just sold, and that's even after factoring in the profit he made on some of the Richard Tracys.  

[Superman2006]

On 4/7/2023 at 12:19 AM, Dr. Love said:

Two step fiasco

First step - Most of the raw Promise auctions I looked up refer to an included COA, but don't actually show the cert.  This Blue Beetle 44 did. At least in this case, HA issued a raw ped cert without any grade.  Unlike the Crippen cert.  This allows that generic cert to be submitted with any copy of that issue.  If this is what happened here, then HA pure fail for not including the grade they assigned to the book for auction.

Second step - shyster with a modicum of intelligence and some cunning submits a higher non Promise grade copy of that issue with the carte blanche cert, counting on CGC's grading process to not run a check against the HA image of the raw book.  CGC:  too much time, too much trouble?  CGC:  why would anyone game the system?  If this is what happened here, then CGC pure fail.

btw - in terms of opportunity - out of approx 813 Promise raw, 191 are the grades that could be exploited for this type of scheme - between Poor and VG/F.

Thanks for sharing. I wasn't aware that certificates with no grade were issued by Heritage.  Good job by MasterChief in shedding light on this potential issue, as usual, and to you for explaining how this could have happened.

[lou_fine]

On 4/6/2023 at 12:24 PM, Superman2006 said:

As time passes, assuming the Golden Age market continues is upward trajectory, there may eventually only be gains from month-to-month, but the results in the early years seems to suggest that the books that have returned to market so far have fared about as well as purchasing an average new car from a dealer, and driving it off the lot. 

Well, being a longer term collector myself as opposed to being an investor or flipper, I find it's really all about spending time in the marketplace, as opposed to trying to time the marketplace.  

Especially when I have found that time can often heal a lot of your initial purchasing mistakes when it comes to buying vintage quality comic books.       

With the proviso of course that even time cannot heal your purchasing mistakes when it comes to buying toxic putrid off the LCS shelf garbage like your 1980's B&W's, unless you was lucky enough to fluke yourself into a copy of TMNT 1.  

Edited April 7, 2023 by lou_fine

[lou_fine]

On 4/7/2023 at 6:56 AM, tth2 said:

Wow, Schmell took a $11,394 loss on the Promise books he just sold, and that's even after factoring in the profit he made on some of the Richard Tracys.  

Wow, I am actually surprsied that the loss was so small on so many (i.e. 16) Promise Collection retread books.  

Any bet that the loss would have been quite a bit larger if he had the balls to auction them off on his own PedigreeComics.com website.  Of course, he would never ever do that because he clearly has absolutely zero confidence in his own auction platform when it comes to auctioning off his own books, as that website of his is only for know nothing suckers who don't know any better.  

[MasterChief]

On 4/7/2023 at 3:56 AM, tth2 said:

Wow, Schmell took a $11,394 loss on the Promise books he just sold, and that's even after factoring in the profit he made on some of the Richard Tracys.

I must have missed something... those were Doug Schmell's books?

[lou_fine]

On 4/7/2023 at 12:01 PM, MasterChief said:

I must have missed something... those were Doug Schmell's books?

Yes, all of those Doug's Dell & Gold Key Showcase Auctions which Heritage have been running from November 2022, Febraury 2023, and now April 2023 are all referring to books from Doug Schmell's personal collection, with possibly even more to come.  

Needless to say, I believe we are all aware of his big early key Marvel personal collection which he also auctioned off through Heritage several years ago for a few million dollars at the time.  No doubt, he didn't want to have any of his personal collection books anywhere close to that third rate PedigreeComics.com website auction platform.    

Edited April 7, 2023 by lou_fine

[MasterChief]

On 4/7/2023 at 9:12 AM, lou_fine said:

Yes, all of those Doug's Dell & Gold Key Showcase Auctions which Heritage have been running from November 2022, Febraury 2023, and now April 2023 are all referring to books from Doug Schmell's personal collection, with possibly even more to come.

Thx. I did not know that. Guess I need to pull the curtain back and look closer at these books for manipulation.

Edited April 7, 2023 by MasterChief

[MrBedrock]

On 3/31/2023 at 4:54 PM, lou_fine said:

Since the hope for successful flipping of comic books in today's certified marketplace is really highly dependent on the successful playing of the CPR game...

Absolutely untrue.

[MrBedrock]

On 4/7/2023 at 2:27 PM, MasterChief said:

On 4/7/2023 at 2:12 PM, lou_fine said:

Yes, all of those Doug's Dell & Gold Key Showcase Auctions which Heritage have been running from November 2022, Febraury 2023, and now April 2023 are all referring to books from Doug Schmell's personal collection, with possibly even more to come.

Thx. I did not know that. Guess I need to pull the curtain back and look closer at these books for manipulation.

If you missed the "Doug's" in the auction title how could you possibly find manipulation?

[lou_fine]

On 4/7/2023 at 12:57 PM, MrBedrock said:

On 3/31/2023 at 2:54 PM, lou_fine said:

Since the hope for successful flipping of comic books in today's certified marketplace is really highly dependent on the successful playing of the CPR game...

Absolutely untrue.

Probably correct if you are either astute enough to pick up books at a good price point or lucky enough to have picked them up prior to a global pandemic locking collectors into their homes and the government throwing money at them hand over fist, with nowhere else to spend some of their free time and money except on the comic book auction platforms.  

Then again, being able to successfully play the CPR certainly doesn't hurt your chances of making money when it comes to flipping comic books in the hopes of making some money.   

Edited April 7, 2023 by lou_fine

[MasterChief]

On 4/7/2023 at 10:05 AM, MrBedrock said:

If you missed the "Doug's" in the auction title how could you possibly find manipulation?

So any auction with the name "Doug" in the title automatically means Doug Schmell. Got it. Your logic remains as always infallible and beyond reproach.

[MrBedrock]

On 4/7/2023 at 4:07 PM, MasterChief said:

So any auction with the name "Doug" in the title automatically means Doug Schmell. Got it.

Well, the tag line "The Dell/Gold Key Collection of Doug Schmell" was a useful hint for the rest of us.

[batman_fan]

On 4/7/2023 at 6:32 PM, MrBedrock said:

Well, the tag line "The Dell/Gold Key Collection of Doug Schmell" was a useful hint for the rest of us.