AF 9.6 coming to auction 7 7

[LDarkseid1]

On 7/27/2021 at 11:21 AM, MGsimba77 said:

Just playing around with some GPA numbers here at least with past sales of AF15 in relation to ASM1 blue label 8.0 to 9.4. I don't think that 2011 AF9.6 result has too much relevance at this point. 

What you see is a roughly (emphasis on roughly) 4 - 5X multiple between AF15/ASM1 in same grade blue label but only taking into account sales within the past 5 years or so.

When you go down a grade between ASM1 and AF15 (example 9.2 ASM1 to a 9.0 AF15) the AF15 multiple becomes ~2.5 to 3X.

The value gap between TEC27/Bats1 same grade is a bit tougher to determine since they seldomly sell but the little I could glean from GPA low to mid grades suggests a value gap somewhat smaller than AF/ASM. This accounts for the recent Clink data I could find. 

So there was a Batman #1 9.4 WP blue label auctioned on HA last January for 2.2 million. The only 9.4 blue in the census. If you assume the TEC 9.2 comes to market using a 3 to 4X multiple of the Bat1 9.4 you're looking at roughly 7 mill ...i don't know, I'd suspect 6 million would be closer to the reality? In any regard that 9.4 Bat1 result will serve as an important marker for this AF9.6 and any other massive high grade key coming up! This is gonna be exciting as hell no matter where it lands🤘

https://www.cgccomics.com/news/article/8830/highest-graded-batman-1/

Definitely possible for the Tec 27 9.2, were it ever to come to auction. 7 mil is a big big number, but who knows, especially now a days. Have to question what either of the 2 Action 1 9.0's would sell for in the current market if either hit an auction. I think closer to 5 mil for either of the Action 1's or the Tec 27 would be more likely, but once again there's just no telling anymore.

[Aman619]

Hard to tell.  The list of people who have to date written a check for 1M for a comic book is very short. And one is a billionaires son.  At the high end, the nosebleed end of the hobby, we can extrapolate what these books are worth all day long.  It’s only when they sell that we know.  But the trend upward is encouraging… new money can make these dreams come true…

[Aman619]

For the Tec 27 9.2 specifically, I think 7M minimum.  No way the owner lets it go at anything under what he thinks it will be worth years down the road.  His copy is a bona fide home run of a collectible!  With the Mile High graded, what other copies can possible topple it from the Silver Medal?

[MGsimba77]

On 7/27/2021 at 5:41 PM, LDarkseid1 said:

Have to question what either of the 2 Action 1 9.0's would sell for in the current market if either hit an auction.

Well the only AC1 8.5 blue sold on CC this year for 3.25 M. That's up from just over 2M three years ago. So make of that what you will. It may depend which of the 9.0s it would be. I think one is a WP and the Nic Cage one with the white spot on the banner is OW but not entirely sure? I'll speculate if there is a WP on the auction block it surpasses 7 mil.

On 7/27/2021 at 6:22 PM, Aman619 said:

For the Tec 27 9.2 specifically, I think 7M minimum.  No way the owner lets it go at anything under what he thinks it will be worth years down the road.  His copy is a bona fide home run of a collectible!  With the Mile High graded, what other copies can possible topple it from the Silver Medal?

There's the possibility the Allentown 27 you mentioned could be submitted or no? Didn't you say there were a number of raw 27s that could fall between 8.0 and 9.4?

If there are possibly three AC1 blue label NMs then wouldn't there be a greater chance of another 9.2 Tec27 out there? 

If as you suggested there was a 9.8 AF out there or a 9.4 TEC we're talking 8 figures on those...and yeah I think the money is out there! Maybe from individuals maybe from financial institutions who knows  but it's out there 

[LDarkseid1]

On 7/27/2021 at 4:00 PM, MGsimba77 said:

Well the only AC1 8.5 blue sold on CC this year for 3.25 M. That's up from just over 2M three years ago. So make of that what you will. It may depend which of the 9.0s it would be. I think one is a WP and the Nic Cage one with the white spot on the banner is OW but not entirely sure? I'll speculate if there is a WP on the auction block it surpasses 7 mil.

There's the possibility the Allentown 27 you mentioned could be submitted or no? Didn't you say there were a number of raw 27s that could fall between 8.0 and 9.4?

If there are possibly three AC1 blue label NMs then wouldn't there be a greater chance of another 9.2 Tec27 out there? 

If as you suggested there was a 9.8 AF out there or a 9.4 TEC we're talking 8 figures on those...and yeah I think the money is out there! Maybe from individuals maybe from financial institutions who knows  but it's out there 

Well to be fair, the 3.25 mil sale was a straight buy it now, where as the 2 mil sale several years ago was no reserve auction. I'm not 100% sure I believe it would have sold for that at no reserve auction. I think CC milked that sale as much as they could to get that price. I just find it ironic that it happened to just BARELY beat the last 9.0 sale. Think there was a slight agenda to prop up the book for future mega golden age sales in general. To be clear, I'm not saying I couldn't see it selling for over 3 mil had it gone to auction, but I don't know if I believe it would have.

As far as the two action 1 9.0's go, I mean I'm normally one to disagree with others who tend to diminish what's possible out there as far as a book's potential. I still think 7 mil is a huge number though, considering no book to this date has even passed 4 mil or close to it. I don't consider 3.25 mil close to 4 mil just to clarify. Every penny starts to add up when we're getting in the millions I feel, and even $750K less is big I feel. So I'm not sure the two 9.0's are necessarily multiples of that 8.5. But yeah who knows, we're all just adding opinions to the inevitable scenario. I mean I'm sure we'll see them for sale at some point, maybe lol.

[LDarkseid1]

On 7/27/2021 at 3:22 PM, Aman619 said:

For the Tec 27 9.2 specifically, I think 7M minimum.  No way the owner lets it go at anything under what he thinks it will be worth years down the road.  His copy is a bona fide home run of a collectible!  With the Mile High graded, what other copies can possible topple it from the Silver Medal?

I mean if it's no reserve auction then obviously won't matter what the owner is "willing to let it go for", based off current estimated price or years down the road. Assuming that's the route they take. Will just have to wait and see though as it's all semantics at this point haha. Comics are at insane highs right now. Will it always be like that, maybe, maybe not. Price correction could change what these mega grails are selling for. Or they could just keep going up lol. Time will tell.

[Aman619]

On 7/27/2021 at 7:00 PM, MGsimba77 said:

Well the only AC1 8.5 blue sold on CC this year for 3.25 M. That's up from just over 2M three years ago. So make of that what you will. It may depend which of the 9.0s it would be. I think one is a WP and the Nic Cage one with the white spot on the banner is OW but not entirely sure? I'll speculate if there is a WP on the auction block it surpasses 7 mil.

There's the possibility the Allentown 27 you mentioned could be submitted or no? Didn't you say there were a number of raw 27s that could fall between 8.0 and 9.4?

If there are possibly three AC1 blue label NMs then wouldn't there be a greater chance of another 9.2 Tec27 out there? 

If as you suggested there was a 9.8 AF out there or a 9.4 TEC we're talking 8 figures on those...and yeah I think the money is out there! Maybe from individuals maybe from financial institutions who knows  but it's out there 

Well yeah I guess I’ve argued both sides of this argument huh?  Yes, there very well may be more copies out there between 8.0 and 9.4. I would never say all HG keys have been slabbed!  Today I was speaking from the Tec 27 census as it is… which is all the buyer has to gauge  how much the 9.2 is worth. The census plus the Allentown copy. 

[LDarkseid1]

On 7/27/2021 at 3:17 PM, Aman619 said:

Hard to tell.  The list of people who have to date written a check for 1M for a comic book is very short. And one is a billionaires son.  At the high end, the nosebleed end of the hobby, we can extrapolate what these books are worth all day long.  It’s only when they sell that we know.  But the trend upward is encouraging… new money can make these dreams come true…

Last I recall, Hariri was out of the game, not buying anymore. So not sure you have him as a potential big spender on any future mega books. There's obviously some other big spenders out there as seen by the recent sales: Tec 27 7.0, Batman 1 9.4, Action 1 8.5, etc..

[Aman619]

Yes. He’s out. Don’t know why cause he must still have fund’s first comics. If I were him I’d have cornered as many top copies as I could.

but, Maybe knowing so many of the hobby’s best copies will never be available to him took the shine out of it for him?  Or was it dads less secure status at home??

[LDarkseid1]

On 7/27/2021 at 4:38 PM, Aman619 said:

Yes. He’s out. Don’t know why cause he must still have fund’s first comics. If I were him I’d have cornered as many top copies as I could.

but, Maybe knowing so many of the hobby’s best copies will never be available to him took the shine out of it for him?  Or was it dads less secure status at home??

Agree 100%. If I had his money I would have cornered the market on anything and everything mega grail lol. Which to be fair he did buy quite a bunch, but still. Family issues definitely could have hurt his situation for sure. I feel like he exited, or at least it was discussed he was done before those problems, but not 100% sure.

[Aman619]

Daddy took his T-Bird away..!

[tth2]

On 7/28/2021 at 7:00 AM, MGsimba77 said:

On 7/28/2021 at 6:22 AM, Aman619 said:

With the Mile High graded, what other copies can possible topple it from the Silver Medal?

There's the possibility the Allentown 27 you mentioned could be submitted or no?

Aman is assuming that the gold medal goes to the AT Tec 27.  

[MGsimba77]

On 7/28/2021 at 9:51 AM, tth2 said:

On 7/27/2021 at 7:00 PM, MGsimba77 said:

On 7/27/2021 at 6:22 PM, Aman619 said:

With the Mile High graded, what other copies can possible topple it from the Silver Medal?

There's the possibility the Allentown 27 you mentioned could be submitted or no?

Aman is assuming that the gold medal goes to the AT Tec 27.  

Okay...It seemed from his post I quoted he was referring to the graded Tec 9.2 as the one that couldn't be toppled.

I suggested that if the AT copy is actually a 9.4 it threatens 8 figures. So would a 9.8 AF

Edited July 28, 2021 by MGsimba77

[MGsimba77]

Anybody know if the Tec 9.2 was pressed up from an 8.0?

[Aman619]

Pressed up from somewhere below 9.2.....

[Aman619]

On 7/28/2021 at 9:51 AM, tth2 said:

Aman is assuming that the gold medal goes to the AT Tec 27.  

I’m thinking now “conceding the gold medal” is pretty apt.

[MGsimba77]

On 7/28/2021 at 5:10 PM, Aman619 said:

Pressed up from somewhere below 9.2.....

That's interesting. Any idea if the old cert # was taken down from the census?

I did some digging and spotted this 8.0 someone pointed out as a possibility. There looks to be some bending going on around the top staple. The cert is 0029109005. Could it be? 

[bluechip]

On 7/27/2021 at 4:00 PM, MGsimba77 said:

 

If as you suggested there was a 9.8 AF out there or a 9.4 TEC 

I definitely believe there are AF15 copies out there which most people would look at raw and feel they're identical in condition to other books which graded 9.8 (and most of them would probably also those effectively identical to the 9.6s.     

[Aman619]

I didnt mean that it was necessarily a crack and press... only that probably it was a raw "some grade below" its final grade of 9.2.  That it got the same help so many other books do, rather than just get slabbed as is if theres things to fix.  I mean, either do it while you own it, or sell it as is and watch someone else take advantage of the opportunity.  Rob React discusses a "missing 8.0 Tec 27 on his site. I think the one you posted, and is waiting for someone out there to tell his if it IS that missing copy, or a fresh copy.

[BigLeagueCHEW]

These should hit some high numbers as well. Seen these on the HA site.