AF 9.6 coming to auction 7 7

[Aman619]

On 7/26/2021 at 3:19 AM, KCOComics said:

It's kind of interesting to think about the top individual books in our hobby. Is this copy of AF15 among the top 5 individual books in the hobby?  I imagine it's not, though it stands a chance to set the record. 

There are 3 copies of AC1 I believe would go for much more (the two 9.0s and the Dentist's Mile high). There is the 9.2 Tec 27.  Does Dave have an ungraded NM Tec27? The Mile High?

Are there other individual books that could creep into that top 5 space? Like a NM Detective 1? 

Undiscovered AF15s that may grade at 9.8? Or current 9.6s that could be "upgraded".  

It's kind of interesting to think about the handful of individual books that would distinguish themselves. 

the Allentown Tec 27 is suggested to be a 9.4 or even a 9.6.  There are other copies out there raw that will come in between 8.0 and 9.4.  We just have to wait and see.  Yes, an AF 15 9.6 could be upgraded, and even a raw 9.8 might be siting in a collection.  As Dylan sang, the "wheel is still in spin".  This AF15 9.6 auction is so exciting because of the timing right now when we have some very motivated buyers seemingly ready to pounce on anything juicy for sale. And fight for it tooth and nail.  Spidey is arguably a much hotter character than Superman or Batman now.  If youre new to collecting comics, you want to lock up a big key book in the highest grade you can that exists... Spidey is arguably the most popular character, and a 9.6 is the best you can get.  Plus, none of the 9.6s have sold publicly in a long time now, so that means some of us might have been waiting to upgrade.  Conditions are ripe for a big shocker price tag.

...or not, and it turns no one is willing to go higher than 1,5 or 1.7M, preserving the "natural order of things".   But that's still a pretty good number.

[tth2]

There's probably only a few books that would go for more than a 9.6 AF 15.

1. Church Action 1

2. Allentown Detective 27

3. 9.2 Detective 27

4. 9.0 Action 1

5.  9.0 Action 1

6.  Church Batman 1

7.  Dentist copy of Superman 1

Would the 9.8 Allentown Captain America 1 or the Church Marvel Comics 1 go for more?  I don't think they would.  At least it would be close.

 

[Aman619]

I agree with each book on your list.  Especially the Marvels.  Tradition says that Marvel 1 is still up there, but I’ll believe it when I see it .  The 9.8 grade for Cap should get it over a million… but let’s see if and when that day comes.  This new money may take us in new directions…

[jjonahjameson11]

On 7/26/2021 at 12:14 PM, Aman619 said:

I agree with each book on your list.  Especially the Marvels.  Tradition says that Marvel 1 is still up there, but I’ll believe it when I see it .  The 9.8 grade for Cap should get it over a million… but let’s see if and when that day comes.  This new money may take us in new directions…

The 9.4 San Francisco copy of Cap 1 in CGC 9.4 (OW/W) went for $915K nearly 2 years to the day so I'd say the 9.8 Allentown copy would easily shatter $1M, and most likely $2M.

[peewee22]

On 7/26/2021 at 3:15 AM, Aman619 said:

the Allentown Tec 27 is suggested to be a 9.4 or even a 9.6.  There are other copies out there raw that will come in between 8.0 and 9.4.  We just have to wait and see.  Yes, an AF 15 9.6 could be upgraded, and even a raw 9.8 might be siting in a collection.  As Dylan sang, the "wheel is still in spin".  This AF15 9.6 auction is so exciting because of the timing right now when we have some very motivated buyers seemingly ready to pounce on anything juicy for sale. And fight for it tooth and nail.  Spidey is arguably a much hotter character than Superman or Batman now.  If youre new to collecting comics, you want to lock up a big key book in the highest grade you can that exists... Spidey is arguably the most popular character, and a 9.6 is the best you can get.  Plus, none of the 9.6s have sold publicly in a long time now, so that means some of us might have been waiting to upgrade.  Conditions are ripe for a big shocker price tag.

...or not, and it turns no one is willing to go higher than 1,5 or 1.7M, preserving the "natural order of things".   But that's still a pretty good number.

I was thinking a 3mil price tag on the 9.6. Hmmmmm...

[linmoth]

I saw the Western Penn AF 15. Awesome book didn’t look at it close enough to grade but it sure was purdy!

[Aman619]

On 7/26/2021 at 3:05 PM, jjonahjameson11 said:

The 9.4 San Francisco copy of Cap 1 in CGC 9.4 (OW/W) went for $915K nearly 2 years to the day so I'd say the 9.8 Allentown copy would easily shatter $1M, and most likely $2M.

haha yup/  I forgot about that sale.  I had a Cap 1 many years ago but traded it toward a bigger book.  Like all such deals I made to keep the cash outlay down, I should have kept both!  Guess thats why I cant track Cap 1 in my head ... cause it hurts!

Edited July 26, 2021 by Aman619

[Aman619]

On 7/26/2021 at 3:36 PM, linmoth said:

I saw the Western Penn AF 15. Awesome book didn’t look at it close enough to grade but it sure was purdy!

so its still raw?  ought to be a minimum 9.4.  That collection is awesome.  THEYRE STILL OUT THERE!

 

[Dark Knight]

I'm wondering if the owners of the other three 9.4 copies are thinking about getting their copy pressed or even for a re-sub at a chance for a 9.8 

By the way CGC has been grading the Promise Collection, I am certain that all three can be upgraded 

[linmoth]

On 7/26/2021 at 4:18 PM, Aman619 said:

so its still raw?  ought to be a minimum 9.4.  That collection is awesome.  THEYRE STILL OUT THERE!

 

Don’t know what happened to it after I saw it other than it was sold to someone in Texas!

[jimjum12]

On 7/26/2021 at 12:03 AM, Aman619 said:

yes.  however, the question here is not which is a better book, but more whether this 9.6 AF can SELL for more Right Now??  Even if f it does, I don't think that it means AF 15 is WORTH more than a similar HG Action 1, right?  Its timing.  The market has been on fire of late, lots of new collectors buying key books in grades we would have serious reservations about but paying.  This kind of new mindset, the one that says that :I dont know or really care what the traditional prices these comics sold for in the past, all I know is that this is what it costs today to win one or buy one, and I want it!"  I agree with this thinking.  I mean.It's how we all bought our books back then -- for top retail minus some kind of discount so we could sleep that night! Big difference is the huge jump up in prices right now is so sudden that experience tells us its should be a blip and prices will soften at some point. but they dont, or just dont care.

but I buried the lead!  What did you mean make a pilgrimage to see the Mile High copy?  Even if you got down there, could he really have showed it to you?  Or do you mean 20 years ago when you guys might have gotten together and he'd take it our for you? (getting kinda kinky all of a sudden...)

Dave will show it to you, but you first have to have your teeth cleaned, and then have a suction tube in your mouth to minimize saliva build-up. GOD BLESS....

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

[MGsimba77]

Considering how tight current CGC grading, the chances of any AF 9.6 being upgraded might be smaller than the chance of a downgrade. 

[MGsimba77]

On 7/26/2021 at 10:54 AM, tth2 said:

There's probably only a few books that would go for more than a 9.6 AF 15.

1. Church Action 1

2. Allentown Detective 27

3. 9.2 Detective 27

4. 9.0 Action 1

5.  9.0 Action 1

6.  Church Batman 1

7.  Dentist copy of Superman 1

Would the 9.8 Allentown Captain America 1 or the Church Marvel Comics 1 go for more?  I don't think they would.  At least it would be close.

 

We only know the 2 certified Action 1s would top AF9.6. Other than that only 9.4 TEC27 would be a serious threat. Until those raw copies are certified nobody knows for sure. Is it even a certainty they're not restored?

If the supply was even relatively equal amongst AF 9.6 and any huge GA or Marvel keys theirs no question AF would blow them out of the water. Spidey is more popular than everybody combined!

[tth2]

On 7/27/2021 at 3:05 AM, jjonahjameson11 said:

The 9.4 San Francisco copy of Cap 1 in CGC 9.4 (OW/W) went for $915K nearly 2 years to the day so I'd say the 9.8 Allentown copy would easily shatter $1M, and most likely $2M.

Yes, but would it sell for more than a 9.6 AF 15?

[tth2]

On 7/27/2021 at 7:15 AM, MGsimba77 said:

We only know the 2 certified Action 1s would top AF9.6. Other than that only 9.4 TEC27 would be a serious threat. Until those raw copies are certified nobody knows for sure. Is it even a certainty they're not restored?

Yeah, sorry, I've been in this hobby way too long to act as if it came into existence only after CGC did.  I stand by my list and the non-certified books in there.

[jjonahjameson11]

On 7/26/2021 at 8:02 PM, tth2 said:

Yes, but would it sell for more than a 9.6 AF 15?

Computer says no.

[KCOComics]

On 7/26/2021 at 7:15 PM, MGsimba77 said:

We only know the 2 certified Action 1s would top AF9.6. Other than that only 9.4 TEC27 would be a serious threat. Until those raw copies are certified nobody knows for sure. Is it even a certainty they're not restored?

 

You got to remember, before grading existed there were certain collectors scooping up high grade mega GA keys and they haven't seen the light of day since. So I don't think the existence of the books listed above are in dispute.

We do know with some level of certainty that the Church Action 1 and the Allentown Tec 27 don't have restoration. They were reviewed by Fishler (Metropolis) and Steve Borock (formerly CGC and currently CBCS president) and both said unrestored and that they would be the highest graded known copies (or something like that). 

On 7/26/2021 at 7:15 PM, MGsimba77 said:

 

If the supply was even relatively equal amongst AF 9.6 and any huge GA or Marvel keys theirs no question AF would blow them out of the water. Spidey is more popular than everybody combined!

 

Aside from scarcity there is something to be said for history. AC1 and Tec27 hold tremendous historical significance for comics as we know them today.  

Spidey is extremely important in his own right, but you can make a strong case that comics as we know them today wouldn't exist without AC1.  By the time Spidey came along, comics already had a vibrant history and Stan and Jack had started turning out all the hits that defined the 60s. 

This isn't a shot at Spidey and his popularity. It's just commentary about the overall impact on the Hobby. 

[tth2]

On 7/27/2021 at 8:15 AM, jjonahjameson11 said:

On 7/27/2021 at 8:02 AM, tth2 said:

Yes, but would it sell for more than a 9.6 AF 15?

Computer says no.

I agree.

[MGsimba77]

On 7/26/2021 at 8:26 PM, KCOComics said:

Spidey is extremely important in his own right, but you can make a strong case that comics as we know them today wouldn't exist without AC1.  By the time Spidey came along, comics already had a vibrant history and Stan and Jack had started turning out all the hits that defined the 60s. 

This isn't a shot at Spidey and his popularity. It's just commentary about the overall impact on the Hobby. 

Oh I agree 1000% there would be no spidey/Batman or perhaps comics at least in the form we know them if AC1 doesn't take off! No doubt about it! 

AC1 is the most important comic book ever regardless of Superman's popularity. 

I'm just saying that in today's world Spidey supersedes everybody in popularity by a mile. Imo chances are the new crowd of bidders coming in are by and large more amenable to AF 9.6 being king of the hill than anything else.

[MGsimba77]

Just playing around with some GPA numbers here at least with past sales of AF15 in relation to ASM1 blue label 8.0 to 9.4. I don't think that 2011 AF9.6 result has too much relevance at this point. 

What you see is a roughly (emphasis on roughly) 4 - 5X multiple between AF15/ASM1 in same grade blue label but only taking into account sales within the past 5 years or so.

When you go down a grade between ASM1 and AF15 (example 9.2 ASM1 to a 9.0 AF15) the AF15 multiple becomes ~2.5 to 3X.

The value gap between TEC27/Bats1 same grade is a bit tougher to determine since they seldomly sell but the little I could glean from GPA low to mid grades suggests a value gap somewhat smaller than AF/ASM. This accounts for the recent Clink data I could find. 

So there was a Batman #1 9.4 WP blue label auctioned on HA last January for 2.2 million. The only 9.4 blue in the census. If you assume the TEC 9.2 comes to market using a 3 to 4X multiple of the Bat1 9.4 you're looking at roughly 7 mill ...i don't know, I'd suspect 6 million would be closer to the reality? In any regard that 9.4 Bat1 result will serve as an important marker for this AF9.6 and any other massive high grade key coming up! This is gonna be exciting as hell no matter where it lands🤘

https://www.cgccomics.com/news/article/8830/highest-graded-batman-1/