The story of a promise made during the Korean War 9 9

[path4play]

On 3/4/2022 at 1:19 PM, Cat-Man_America said:

You've made some well reasoned points, but there are different factors involved in this pedigree that set the Promise Collection apart from others which have been much more thoroughly vetted.  The Korean War tale is a "Field of Dreams" story that tugs at the imagination.  Arguably, this particular story is probably 50% of the pedigree's perceived value.  It would be much closer to the 25% figure you mentioned, but the heavy hyping combined with eye-popping grade opinions are inseparable from these books.  The grade opinions have been strongly debated; I won't go there.  I think the grade opinion consideration may be more important than the truth behind the back-story, but they are indeed intertwined at this point and a 9.6 or 9.8 book isn't going to be cracked out, contested and downgraded later.  Encapsulation is "set in stone" so to speak; these books will likely have few if any peers even among books that may look better. What's done is done, but it draws even more attention to the story and it's missing pieces.

Digression: One other factor worth noting is the premium applied may also benefit to some degree from the appeal of the newer distinctive antique gold pedigree label, although how much influence that has on folks pulling the trigger is entirely debatable. 

If this pedigree turned out to be something else, like a non-original owner collection ...in part or whole... put together later by a family member, surviving brother or folks associated with Heritage, that would be a shocking betrayal of trust.  I will not use the "f" word in any respect to speculations about who would do this or why, but where major money is involved people have been known to do all sorts of things to sweeten the pot.  Bottom line, I do think that everyone involved in bidding and buying these books at such cutting edge premium prices is entitled to the whole story, not just vague rumors about it.

My 2 cents, ...the caffeine responsible for the length of this cost a bit more.

All things being equal, I certainly would prefer to know the full true story.  I also tend to think the simplest explanation is the most likely and that the probable variations of the truth are within specifics of dates and time and locations - but the general theme of the Korean War and "the promise" are more likely true. And I can't imagine detailed variations within that story mattering much to the value.  Who knows, maybe the family pulled one over on Heritage.  While many things are possible, a much smaller few are likely. 

[10centcomics]

Here's a newly listed Promise book with a name on the cover.

[jimjum12]

On 3/8/2022 at 9:29 PM, szav said:

John Holiday? I can’t tell.

Many of the collection’s oldest books look like they were possibly acquired used or in trades, so whatever it is that may not be the owners name anyway.

Looks like "John Hobby" to me. GOD BLESS...

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

[Phill the Governor]

Individually, I think certain books, pedigree aside, can be appreciated- based on scarcity, condition, etc...

 

That said, it appears to me that the Promise Collection Pedigree was assembled by various individuals, and that the official story (like many official stories) has just a sliver of truth that was intentionally extrapolated upon. I'd bet some portion of the collection is original owner books. But based on page quality, writing, condition and capacity, there are way too many red flags that call out it's "true" pedigree status. Like any good conspiracy, we don't need to prove what happened: just that the official story has too many holes and inconsistencies to remain unquestioned.

As the story almost always goes: follow the money. Seems far more likely that this collection was assembled by one or more collectors/dealers in order to maximize profits from many, many books that would have otherwise gone for fractions of the final selling prices. Who ever it was, however, did not plan for internet sleuths to start picking everything apart, revealing the gaping hole in the legitimacy of the story. In the same way that WATA and Heritage did not plan for an independent journalist to dive into the 1mil Mario NES sale. The only difference is the amount of available information that calls everything into question.

 

[buttock]

On 3/9/2022 at 10:02 AM, Phill the Governor said:

Individually, I think certain books, pedigree aside, can be appreciated- based on scarcity, condition, etc...

 

That said, it appears to me that the Promise Collection Pedigree was assembled by various individuals, and that the official story (like many official stories) has just a sliver of truth that was intentionally extrapolated upon. I'd bet some portion of the collection is original owner books. But based on page quality, writing, condition and capacity, there are way too many red flags that call out it's "true" pedigree status. Like any good conspiracy, we don't need to prove what happened: just that the official story has too many holes and inconsistencies to remain unquestioned.

As the story almost always goes: follow the money. Seems far more likely that this collection was assembled by one or more collectors/dealers in order to maximize profits from many, many books that would have otherwise gone for fractions of the final selling prices. Who ever it was, however, did not plan for internet sleuths to start picking everything apart, revealing the gaping hole in the legitimacy of the story. In the same way that WATA and Heritage did not plan for an independent journalist to dive into the 1mil Mario NES sale. The only difference is the amount of available information that calls everything into question.

 

Uh, no.  It was clearly assembled by Russian bots with the help of aliens to try to bring down the US.  What Heritage is really hiding, though, is the ties to the Chinese communist party.  The reason you never hear about that is because they had to use the Chinese mafia to facilitate so that it couldn't be traced back to the government.  As you said, follow the money.  Wait, did I mention the Koch brothers?  

[shadroch]

Maybe we'll learn more when the 40,000 missing emails surface.

[Courageous Cat]

Like any good conspiracy, someone out there knows the whole truth about how this  whole collection sprung up. The first round of grading on these books got my panties in a wad primarily due to the fact that they were wayyy over graded, but that's the extent of my concern because I have no dog in this fight and no desire to pay a premium from this so called pedigree collection

[sfcityduck]

On 3/9/2022 at 9:02 AM, Phill the Governor said:

That said, it appears to me that the Promise Collection Pedigree was assembled by various individuals, and that the official story (like many official stories) has just a sliver of truth that was intentionally extrapolated upon. I'd bet some portion of the collection is original owner books. But based on page quality, writing, condition and capacity, there are way too many red flags that call out it's "true" pedigree status. Like any good conspiracy, we don't need to prove what happened: just that the official story has too many holes and inconsistencies to remain unquestioned.

I disagree.  I believe it is a single OO collection.  The evidence supports that the CA 3 was obtained by the OO in trade.  I am still attempting to ascertain the full story on the collection.  

To this effect, I want to emphasize that throughout this thread I have repeatedly stated my speculation regarding the Dumas brothers could be wrong.  I also have also repeatedly noted that Heritage/CGC should squash this speculation if it is incorrect.  They certainly are not precluded from doing so by any "confidentiality agreement."  They have not done so.

To be clear, I would hate to see anyone relying upon the notion that the Dumas brothers were the brothers who compiled the collection because, as I've said before, that has not been proven.  It is speculation that I'd like to have confirmed or squashed by Heritage.  I can only speculate as to why they would not do that.  In the absence of them taking action, I'm continuing my own investigation.  Hopefully, confirmation of the OO's identity will be established shortly.

 

 

[telerites]

On 3/9/2022 at 4:07 PM, sfcityduck said:

The evidence supports that the CA 3 was obtained by the OO in trade.

I have tried to keep up with this thread but I am unable to spend a lot of time on the boards.  Just curious on this - if it was obtained in trade, it couldn't be considered a pedigree book, correct? 

Per CGC's definition --

The collection must be original owner.
This means that the books must have been bought off the newsstand as they came out.  

[sfcityduck]

On 3/9/2022 at 2:34 PM, telerites said:

I have tried to keep up with this thread but I am unable to spend a lot of time on the boards.  Just curious on this - if it was obtained in trade, it couldn't be considered a pedigree book, correct? 

Per CGC's definition --

The collection must be original owner.
This means that the books must have been bought off the newsstand as they came out.  

Only very few of the books appear to have been obtained in trade.  Possibly only three or four.  The MH Collection includes books bought second hand, so hard to see a few books obtained in trade as disqualifying.  I suspect that other major pedigrees include books obtained in trade or in the secondary market.  It was just part of the culture of the time.  The key to pedigree status is that the collection as a whole must overwhelmingly be OO, and it appears that is the case with the Promise Collection.  

 

 

 

 

Edited March 9, 2022 by sfcityduck

[telerites]

On 3/9/2022 at 4:38 PM, sfcityduck said:

Only very few of the books appear to have been obtained in trade.  Possibly only three or four.  The MH Collection includes books bought second hand, so hard to see a few books obtained in trade as disqualifying.  I suspect that other major pedigrees include books obtained in trade or in the secondary market.  It was just part of the culture of the time.  The key to pedigree status is that the collection as a whole must overwhelmingly be OO, and it appears that is the case with the Promise Collection.  

This is logical and I do not disagree.  I just wish CGC would modify their definition because that is not what it says.  Just like the trimming - they say it is restoration but some more learned folks here have told me it is not and I believe CGC has waffled on the label.

If latitude is to be ascribed, definitions should not be as rigid.  

And forgive me, one of my earlier jobs with state government before I retired was a technical writer and later I dealt directly with the legislature, I had to weigh every word I wrote and said.

Regardless of my nit, your research has been fascinating and no doubt time-consuming.   

[sfcityduck]

On 3/9/2022 at 2:47 PM, telerites said:

This is logical and I do not disagree.  I just wish CGC would modify their definition because that is not what it says.  ...  If latitude is to be ascribed, definitions should not be as rigid.  

 

Agree with above.  The bigger question, for me, is why does CGC think it gets to determine what comic collections qualify as "pedigrees" and which do not?  The pedigree concept pre-existed CGC.  Key pedigrees pre-existed CGC.  CGC has no right to be the arbiter of what is or is not a pedigree.  It holds no trademark on the term "pedigree," has not trademarked the previously recognized pedigrees, and has no right to be the sole arbiter.

For example, if a competing company were to label as a pedigree books not presently recognized by Heritage, but previously recognized by the comic collecting community as a pedigree, would Heritage honor that designation?

If a competing company were to recognize a previously unknown pedigree, would Heritage honor that pedigree designation? 

I would hope the answer to both questions would be "yes."  If not, Heritage and CGC might end up facing claims for anti-competitive behavior.   

[Phill the Governor]

On 3/9/2022 at 5:07 PM, sfcityduck said:

I disagree.  I believe it is a single OO collection.  The evidence supports that the CA 3 was obtained by the OO in trade.  I am still attempting to ascertain the full story on the collection.  

To this effect, I want to emphasize that throughout this thread I have repeatedly stated my speculation regarding the Dumas brothers could be wrong.  I also have also repeatedly noted that Heritage/CGC should squash this speculation if it is incorrect.  They certainly are not precluded from doing so by any "confidentiality agreement."  They have not done so.

To be clear, I would hate to see anyone relying upon the notion that the Dumas brothers were the brothers who compiled the collection because, as I've said before, that has not been proven.  It is speculation that I'd like to have confirmed or squashed by Heritage.  I can only speculate as to why they would not do that.  In the absence of them taking action, I'm continuing my own investigation.  Hopefully, confirmation of the OO's identity will be established shortly.

 

 

You throw the words "believe" and "speculation" around fairly regularly in your answer. In that respect, I can reasonably rephrase my initial statement of "sliver of truth that was intentionally extrapolated upon" to clarify there is a big range of how much "truth" is actually in the original story. That sliver may be 20% of the collection, maybe it's 25%, maybe even 60%. But there is no way, absolutely no way that near all 90%+ of this collection came from the same original owner.

 

But ultimately, regardless of any speculation- I'm not alone in knowing that many, many of these Promise Collection books are over-graded.

I also know for a fact, 100%, that the three big auction houses engage in underbidding on as many of their lots as they can get away with (legality aside). This one, this fact, that is staring us all in the face, should make many collectors angry beyond recourse. This is the lie that becomes truth as soon as any other like-sale happens, supporting the shilled sale. And the scary thing is that because of fear of missing out/ the addictive nature of collecting, many buyers buy and sell at the new "made up" sale number because they feel confident in the integrity of the system to not question the legitimacy of the "new record price". This is not to say there aren't real record breaking sales, but I've seen with my own eyes enough that I know were manipulated to, once again, push forward the "lie that becomes the truth" situation.

So when a story of a Pedigree comes out, where there is decent range in page quality, writing/marks, condition, and capacity- to the point where there is some consensus amongst the collecting community that something looks off- it probably is. As the old saying goes, if it looks too good to be true, it probably is.

Couple that with the WATA/Heritage scandal that should be headline news, or at least not speculation (all the proof of market manipulation is there) and people should be skeptical.  And its a shame because on their own, many of the books are remarkable and beautiful. But once again it seems that greedy people at the top are making normal, decent collectors pay handsomely for books. Some of which would be marginally cheaper, but many/most of the books from the "Pedigree" would be much much cheaper.

 

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

On 3/9/2022 at 5:21 PM, Phill the Governor said:

You throw the words "believe" and "speculation" around fairly regularly in your answer. In that respect, I can reasonably rephrase my initial statement of "sliver of truth that was intentionally extrapolated upon" to clarify there is a big range of how much "truth" is actually in the original story. That sliver may be 20% of the collection, maybe it's 25%, maybe even 60%. But there is no way, absolutely no way that near all 90%+ of this collection came from the same original owner.

sfcityduck doesn't need me to fight his battles, but I think he has been fair and balanced in his account.

And yes, I think most of us agree the collection has been overgraded.   But as someone else pointed out, the relatively high state of preservation of most of these books at least partially compensates for the bindery defects and other technical flaws that drive us nuts.

[Phill the Governor]

On 3/9/2022 at 7:04 PM, szav said:

I’m sure it goes on too but until they hold guns to peoples heads and force them to bid more than they agree to pay, then there’s no cause for anger.  No one is entitled to anything at any particular price.

In one regard I agree, that's the complicated part of the lie becomes true.

The scenario of gun-to-your-head, however, isn't representative of what's actually going on. No one is forcing anyone to bid. What's happening is far more insidious

If you want a book and for the last 10 years you've been comfortable with thinking it's a $100 book, what's the stink if it suddenly goes for $200? No big deal right? There are certainly price corrections for books all the time. What if $200 is still affordable to you? You can afford the extra $100, so you buy one for $200. But what if you were told later that the $100 sale 10 years ago was really one bidder who got into a bidding war with the house and didn't know it and drove the price up to $100; they were intending to only pay $60 (but could afford to go higher). That one person unintentionally created a false perception of the relative FMV of the book. But technically they didn't overpay, they paid what they agreed to bid.

Once you realize the nuance of the situation, it gets even more complicated once other people that own a copy of the book now say "I won't sell my copy for less than $200" once the new record sale happens. The lie became truth because over time, new people who want the book say "$200 looks good to me, I can afford it", just like you did! And those new buyers and sales are legitimate, so now the manipulated sale helped the new jump in price go higher than it would have.

Most importantly, none of this erases the manipulation of the price from $60-$100, it just happened without anyone noticing. In another time-line, perhaps the book's new record price was increasing from $60 to $100, not $100 to $200.

I guess ignorance is bliss?

 

On 3/9/2022 at 7:04 PM, szav said:

Not saying it’s out of the realm of possibility but it seems more probable it is an OO collection, though possibly not brought to market by the family, but by a dealer who acquired it 20 years ago.  How easily could that person have added books to this base collection without anyone noticing at the time of sale.  Seems near impossible.

 

The more I think about it I think you're right. Probably just took some time to track down missing copies of the big key books they sold when originally purchasing the collection 20 years ago.

[jimbo_7071]

On 3/9/2022 at 7:50 PM, Phill the Governor said:

If you want a book and for the last 10 years you've been comfortable with thinking it's a $100 book, what's the stink if it suddenly goes for $200? No big deal right? There are certainly price corrections for books all the time. What if $200 is still affordable to you? You can afford the extra $100, so you buy one for $200. But what if you were told later that the $100 sale 10 years ago was really one bidder who got into a bidding war with the house and didn't know it and drove the price up to $100; they were intending to only pay $60 (but could afford to go higher). That one person unintentionally created a false perception of the relative FMV of the book. But technically they didn't overpay, they paid what they agreed to bid.

Once you realize the nuance of the situation, it gets even more complicated once other people that own a copy of the book now say "I won't sell my copy for less than $200" once the new record sale happens. The lie became truth because over time, new people who want the book say "$200 looks good to me, I can afford it", just like you did! And those new buyers and sales are legitimate, so now the manipulated sale helped the new jump in price go higher than it would have.

You just described the last 23 years in this hobby going back to the first Greg Manning Auctions comic book auction.

[buttock]

On 3/9/2022 at 4:21 PM, Phill the Governor said:

You throw the words "believe" and "speculation" around fairly regularly in your answer. In that respect, I can reasonably rephrase my initial statement of "sliver of truth that was intentionally extrapolated upon" to clarify there is a big range of how much "truth" is actually in the original story. That sliver may be 20% of the collection, maybe it's 25%, maybe even 60%. But there is no way, absolutely no way that near all 90%+ of this collection came from the same original owner.

 

But ultimately, regardless of any speculation- I'm not alone in knowing that many, many of these Promise Collection books are over-graded.

I also know for a fact, 100%, that the three big auction houses engage in underbidding on as many of their lots as they can get away with (legality aside). This one, this fact, that is staring us all in the face, should make many collectors angry beyond recourse. This is the lie that becomes truth as soon as any other like-sale happens, supporting the shilled sale. And the scary thing is that because of fear of missing out/ the addictive nature of collecting, many buyers buy and sell at the new "made up" sale number because they feel confident in the integrity of the system to not question the legitimacy of the "new record price". This is not to say there aren't real record breaking sales, but I've seen with my own eyes enough that I know were manipulated to, once again, push forward the "lie that becomes the truth" situation.

So when a story of a Pedigree comes out, where there is decent range in page quality, writing/marks, condition, and capacity- to the point where there is some consensus amongst the collecting community that something looks off- it probably is. As the old saying goes, if it looks too good to be true, it probably is.

Couple that with the WATA/Heritage scandal that should be headline news, or at least not speculation (all the proof of market manipulation is there) and people should be skeptical.  And its a shame because on their own, many of the books are remarkable and beautiful. But once again it seems that greedy people at the top are making normal, decent collectors pay handsomely for books. Some of which would be marginally cheaper, but many/most of the books from the "Pedigree" would be much much cheaper.

 

I'd hoped your first post about this was maybe partly tongue in cheek.  But looks like you're actually serious about this.  

[Moondog]

On 3/9/2022 at 11:02 AM, Phill the Governor said:

Individually, I think certain books, pedigree aside, can be appreciated- based on scarcity, condition, etc...

 

That said, it appears to me that the Promise Collection Pedigree was assembled by various individuals, and that the official story (like many official stories) has just a sliver of truth that was intentionally extrapolated upon. I'd bet some portion of the collection is original owner books. But based on page quality, writing, condition and capacity, there are way too many red flags that call out it's "true" pedigree status. Like any good conspiracy, we don't need to prove what happened: just that the official story has too many holes and inconsistencies to remain unquestioned.

As the story almost always goes: follow the money. Seems far more likely that this collection was assembled by one or more collectors/dealers in order to maximize profits from many, many books that would have otherwise gone for fractions of the final selling prices. Who ever it was, however, did not plan for internet sleuths to start picking everything apart, revealing the gaping hole in the legitimacy of the story. In the same way that WATA and Heritage did not plan for an independent journalist to dive into the 1mil Mario NES sale. The only difference is the amount of available information that calls everything into question.

 

Now THAT's a wacky theory!

[Phill the Governor]

On 3/9/2022 at 9:48 PM, buttock said:

I'd hoped your first post about this was maybe partly tongue in cheek.  But looks like you're actually serious about this.  

I'd like to think I'm more just salty about the shill bidding aspect of the hobby. It certainly sounds like others have done quite more research into the depth of this than me so I digress from my ideas of how the collection came to be. It still doesn't change the overwhelming amount of people that feel that many books are overgraded, and vary in enough ways that it makes you second guess the legitimacy of the story. Knowing what I know, I admit to having a higher degree of cynicism when it comes to shady business practices/conspiratorial incidents in the hobby. For example, I know of several creator "File Copies" that are in fact not file copies at all. They were from bound volumes that were otherwise less valuable than regular copies. But everyone likes a good story..... and those books are out there with labels that say "...File Copy" to this day. 

 

 

[buttock]

On 3/9/2022 at 8:04 PM, Phill the Governor said:

I'd like to think I'm more just salty about the shill bidding aspect of the hobby. It certainly sounds like others have done quite more research into the depth of this than me so I digress from my ideas of how the collection came to be. It still doesn't change the overwhelming amount of people that feel that many books are overgraded, and vary in enough ways that it makes you second guess the legitimacy of the story. Knowing what I know, I admit to having a higher degree of cynicism when it comes to shady business practices/conspiratorial incidents in the hobby. For example, I know of several creator "File Copies" that are in fact not file copies at all. They were from bound volumes that were otherwise less valuable than regular copies. But everyone likes a good story..... and those books are out there with labels that say "...File Copy" to this day. 

 

 

Sure, but just because one bad event happened doesn't mean that every event that follows is also bad.