The story of a promise made during the Korean War 9 9

[jimbo_7071]

On 3/1/2022 at 1:41 PM, MrBedrock said:

Your opinion doesn't necessarily make it relevant either.

I have expressed my personal opinion, but more to the point I have looked at the evidence and drawn a conclusion about whether the backstory has an impact on the value of the books. That conclusion is based upon the claims of a number of people (including @sfcityduck) that the story had an impact on their purchase decisions.

As in any healthy debate, anyone is free to try to refute my conclusion by challenging the evidence.

Edited March 3, 2022 by jimbo_7071

[MrBedrock]

On 3/3/2022 at 4:10 AM, jimbo_7071 said:

As in any healthy debate, anyone is free to try to refute my conclusion by challenging the evidence.

Thanks for the freedom. I refute your conclusion  that the story has any measurable impact on pricing. I refute your conclusion that the story could cause Heritage to possibly be liable for fraud. And from another thread I refute your conclusion that Don Maris is a good source for buying properly graded comics. 

[D84]

I refart your refute.

[Straw-Man]

On 3/3/2022 at 9:24 AM, D84 said:

I refart your refute.

if dissatisfied with a release, can i repoot?

[Crowzilla]

On 3/3/2022 at 10:20 AM, MrBedrock said:

I refute your conclusion  that the story has any measurable impact on pricing. I refute your conclusion that the story could cause Heritage to possibly be liable for fraud. And from another thread I refute your conclusion that Don Maris is a good source for buying properly graded comics. 

I reiterate, repost, and reaffirm these refutes

[sfcityduck]

You four above this post are definitely master debaters!

[MrBedrock]

On 3/3/2022 at 12:12 PM, sfcityduck said:

You four above this post are definitely master debaters!

A circular pursuit. 

[path4play]

On 3/3/2022 at 5:10 AM, jimbo_7071 said:

I have expressed my personal opinion, but more to the point I have looked at the evidence and drawn a conclusion about whether the backstory has an impact on the value of the books. That conclusion is based upon the claims of a number of people (including @sfcityduck) that the story had an impact on their purchase decisions.

As in any healthy debate, anyone is free to try to refute my conclusion by challenging the evidence.

Perhaps if they become known as the "Liar's Pedigree" or "Lawsuit Pedigree" the new backstory that the first backstory wasn't true will generate even more mystery and interest around the whole story which will only enhance the value further?

 

Edited March 3, 2022 by path4play

[The Black Hand ®]

On 3/3/2022 at 10:32 AM, MrBedrock said:

A circular pursuit. 

Does that pursuit involve a cookie?

[Crowzilla]

On 3/3/2022 at 1:12 PM, sfcityduck said:

You four above this post are definitely master debaters!

 

[MrBedrock]

On 3/3/2022 at 8:39 PM, Crowzilla said:

 

[MrBedrock]

On 3/3/2022 at 8:39 PM, Crowzilla said:

 

[MrBedrock]

On 3/3/2022 at 8:39 PM, Crowzilla said:

 

[MrBedrock]

On 3/3/2022 at 8:39 PM, Crowzilla said:

 

[Cat-Man_America]

On 3/3/2022 at 1:07 PM, path4play said:

Perhaps if they become known as the "Liar's Pedigree" or "Lawsuit Pedigree" the new backstory that the first backstory wasn't true will generate even more mystery and interest around the whole story which will only enhance the value further?

 

Interesting theory, and Bedrock wins with a four way ...or rather, foray post!!! 

Given the circular logic and masterful debating in this thread I'm persuaded that the Promise Collection may eventually be known as the "Bird in the Hand Pedigree!"

The only thing missing from the Promise Story becoming an Olympic success is performance enhancing drugs.

Edited March 4, 2022 by Cat-Man_America
ALE!

[Bookery]

On 3/3/2022 at 10:20 AM, MrBedrock said:

Thanks for the freedom. I refute your conclusion  that the story has any measurable impact on pricing. I refute your conclusion that the story could cause Heritage to possibly be liable for fraud. And from another thread I refute your conclusion that Don Maris is a good source for buying properly graded comics. 

The problem is, both sides of this debate are wrong.  Because both sides are right.

First, I agree there could be no lawsuit.  Too difficult to prove damages.  A fabricated story would permanently damage the reputations of those involved, however.  That said, I don't believe the story was invented out of whole cloth.  Parts of the story are obviously being withheld, and some parts may involve a bit of selective spin, but there's no reason to suspect complete invention here.

I agree with those that say this is a unique hyper-heated market.  So I think it's fair to say key books, ultra high-grades, and popular runs (Timelys in general, Batman, etc.) would be setting record prices regardless of pedigree status.  But I think it's also unfair to suggest this pedigree has no impact at all.  I have customers that have told me they've bid (usually unsuccessfully) solely because they want to own a Promise book (not other pedigrees, however).  Just one example (I could provide dozens) -- last week a Big Chief Wahoo #7 in 7.0 sold for $336.  Overstreet lists a 7.0 at $60.  In my own shop, I would treat a book such as this as a half-guide book and price it at $30.  If in a non-Promise slab, I would probably break it out, because being only a 7.0 it would actually sell easier for me un-slabbed.  Even in this market, there is no way any other copy in this grade would command such a price.  This is hardly an unusual example.

So there are multiple factors in play here, with the Promise story and ongoing hype factoring in heavily on some books, and probably not so much on others.

[Flee-Marquette]

On 3/4/2022 at 12:57 AM, MrBedrock said:

 

[path4play]

On 3/4/2022 at 9:55 AM, Bookery said:

The problem is, both sides of this debate are wrong.  Because both sides are right.

First, I agree there could be no lawsuit.  Too difficult to prove damages.  A fabricated story would permanently damage the reputations of those involved, however.  That said, I don't believe the story was invented out of whole cloth.  Parts of the story are obviously being withheld, and some parts may involve a bit of selective spin, but there's no reason to suspect complete invention here.

I agree with those that say this is a unique hyper-heated market.  So I think it's fair to say key books, ultra high-grades, and popular runs (Timelys in general, Batman, etc.) would be setting record prices regardless of pedigree status.  But I think it's also unfair to suggest this pedigree has no impact at all.  I have customers that have told me they've bid (usually unsuccessfully) solely because they want to own a Promise book (not other pedigrees, however).  Just one example (I could provide dozens) -- last week a Big Chief Wahoo #7 in 7.0 sold for $336.  Overstreet lists a 7.0 at $60.  In my own shop, I would treat a book such as this as a half-guide book and price it at $30.  If in a non-Promise slab, I would probably break it out, because being only a 7.0 it would actually sell easier for me un-slabbed.  Even in this market, there is no way any other copy in this grade would command such a price.  This is hardly an unusual example.

So there are multiple factors in play here, with the Promise story and ongoing hype factoring in heavily on some books, and probably not so much on others.

I don't think anyone is necessarily arguing any pedigree doesn't have a premium these days, ranging I suppose (in my experience) from Crippens and D copies on one end to Mile High on the other.  My argument continues to be that the pedigree's premium (or "reputation") is based on four things.  Overall size, keys and condition/grade accounts for 75% of the pedigree premium/reputation - and the story 25%.  I just don't think the specific details of the exact military service in Korea will sway the overall premium/reputation much more than 25% of the overall premium being paid.  So if its completely untrue (just a hoarder kid storing books under his bed who never left Ohio) its 2x guide rather than 3x.  If its some other small twist to military service overseas, its hardly a blip.

Okajima being the one exception (and this is largely confined within the 'signed copies') because they are so few in number and the story is so exceptional.

Edited March 4, 2022 by path4play

[Bookery]

On 3/4/2022 at 11:38 AM, path4play said:

I don't think anyone is necessarily arguing any pedigree doesn't have a premium these days, ranging I suppose (in my experience) from Crippens and D copies on one end to Mile High on the other.  My argument continues to be that the pedigree's premium (or "reputation") is based on four things.  Overall size, keys and condition/grade accounts for 75% of the pedigree premium/reputation - and the story 25%.  I just don't think the specific details of the exact military service in Korea will sway the overall premium/reputation much more than 25% of the overall premium being paid.  So if its completely untrue (just a hoarder kid storing books under his bed who never left Ohio) its 2x guide rather than 3x.  If its some other small twist to military service overseas, its hardly a blip.

Okajima being the one exception (and this is largely confined within the 'signed copies') because they are so few in number and the story is so exceptional.

I think that's not an unreasonable argument.  And to be fair... part of the current push is that it's the latest pedigree.  If another spectacular group of books surfaces, even if smaller, the Promise books will fall away from the spotlight at least a bit.  It's probably part of the reason my customers are seeking Promise books (it's what's in the hobby news) but not so much older pedigrees at this time.

[Cat-Man_America]

On 3/4/2022 at 10:38 AM, path4play said:

I don't think anyone is necessarily arguing any pedigree doesn't have a premium these days, ranging I suppose (in my experience) from Crippens and D copies on one end to Mile High on the other.  My argument continues to be that the pedigree's premium (or "reputation") is based on four things.  Overall size, keys and condition/grade accounts for 75% of the pedigree premium/reputation - and the story 25%.  I just don't think the specific details of the exact military service in Korea will sway the overall premium/reputation much more than 25% of the overall premium being paid.  So if its completely untrue (just a hoarder kid storing books under his bed who never left Ohio) its 2x guide rather than 3x.  If its some other small twist to military service overseas, its hardly a blip.

Okajima being the one exception (and this is largely confined within the 'signed copies') because they are so few in number and the story is so exceptional.

You've made some well reasoned points, but there are different factors involved in this pedigree that set the Promise Collection apart from others which have been much more thoroughly vetted.  The Korean War tale is a "Field of Dreams" story that tugs at the imagination.  Arguably, this particular story is probably 50% of the pedigree's perceived value.  It would be much closer to the 25% figure you mentioned, but the heavy hyping combined with eye-popping grade opinions are inseparable from these books.  The grade opinions have been strongly debated; I won't go there.  I think the grade opinion consideration may be more important than the truth behind the back-story, but they are indeed intertwined at this point and a 9.6 or 9.8 book isn't going to be cracked out, contested and downgraded later.  Encapsulation is "set in stone" so to speak; these books will likely have few if any peers even among books that may look better. What's done is done, but it draws even more attention to the story and it's missing pieces.

Digression: One other factor worth noting is the premium applied may also benefit to some degree from the appeal of the newer distinctive antique gold pedigree label, although how much influence that has on folks pulling the trigger is entirely debatable. 

If this pedigree turned out to be something else, like a non-original owner collection ...in part or whole... put together later by a family member, surviving brother or folks associated with Heritage, that would be a shocking betrayal of trust.  I will not use the "f" word in any respect to speculations about who would do this or why, but where major money is involved people have been known to do all sorts of things to sweeten the pot.  Bottom line, I do think that everyone involved in bidding and buying these books at such cutting edge premium prices is entitled to the whole story, not just vague rumors about it.

My 2 cents, ...the caffeine responsible for the length of this cost a bit more.

Edited March 4, 2022 by Cat-Man_America
wordsmithing