oops... 5 5

[Axe Elf]

On 4/21/2022 at 10:54 PM, Galen130 said:

Your missing a cupple letterz…

...and that brings us back to "oops..."

[Jesse-Lee]

On 4/21/2022 at 10:50 PM, Domo Arigato said:

Sure, but we could throw numbers out all day long.  Like Hulk #181 is an almost 50 year old comic......which means it has close to 40 additional years on UF #4.  Plus, Wolverine has been an iconic character for decades, and still is.....with how many movies, video games, etc. featuring him?  Not to mention the thousands(?) of comic books he's appeared in.....including the X-men books, his own series, as well as hundreds of crossovers. 

As you mentioned, I'm sure Hulk #181 likely had a much larger print run.....plus it's had an additional decade to be submitted to CGC......yet it only has about 400 more universal graded copies in total than UF #4 currently has.......and much fewer high grade copies.

A 4.0 Hulk 181 does sell for a lot.....and part of the reason for that is because there aren't a lot of high grade copies available, which drives the price up on the lower grade copies......plus the scramble over the last couple of years where the big money guys have gone after the blue chip bronze and silver key issues.

If you just consider UF #4 in CGC 9.0 and above........there are 10,743 graded copies. 

In order to reach that amount of Hulk #181 graded copies......you have to total all of them from 4.0 and above.

As I mentioned before, I realize this is the first appearance of a new Spider-Man and there could "possibly" be a lot of potential for it down the road......but it's still an 11 year old modern comic with over 3,000 copies in CGC 9.8 and over 3,300 copies in CGC 9.6 grade.  This is just going to have to be one of those instances where I don't quite see it.......but I could be wrong.

 

I agree with a lot of this, but that's why I think it's probably priced about right - since a 4.0 181 is about the same as a 9.8 UF4 currently. Maybe UF4 is a bit high based on future potential, maybe not. But I still think that when UF4 hits 30-40 years old, the current price will look like a deal, the same way prices of Hulk 181 from 20 years ago look like a deal now. For what it's worth, I don't have a 9.8 UF4, and I don't own a 181 at all (wish I did). I bought a 9.2 UF4 because I wanted in to that book. I paid $650, and not too long after I bought it, 9.2s were selling for less than $600. But the last two 9.2s sold on ebay for $1,081 and $950. Either way, I see this as a long-term hold, and it's a gamble I'm willing to take based on the perceived potential.

[Domo Arigato]

On 4/21/2022 at 11:24 PM, Jesse-Lee said:

I agree with a lot of this, but that's why I think it's probably priced about right - since a 4.0 181 is about the same as a 9.8 UF4 currently. Maybe UF4 is a bit high based on future potential, maybe not. But I still think that when UF4 hits 30-40 years old, the current price will look like a deal, the same way prices of Hulk 181 from 20 years ago look like a deal now. For what it's worth, I don't have a 9.8 UF4, and I don't own a 181 at all (wish I did). I bought a 9.2 UF4 because I wanted in to that book. I paid $650, and not too long after I bought it, 9.2s were selling for less than $600. But the last two 9.2s sold on ebay for $1,081 and $950. Either way, I see this as a long-term hold, and it's a gamble I'm willing to take based on the perceived potential.

You could be right, and I might be kicking myself (yet again) when it ends ups selling for 10 times the current price.  I bought a beautiful CGC 9.4 copy of Hulk #181 with white pages back around 2001 or 2002 for about $1,875.  Sold it not long after that for around $2,350 and thought I'd made out like a bandit.  Time has not been kind to that decision. 

I don't collect or invest in moderns, which I'm sure plays a part in my viewpoint.  And the way the comic book market as a whole has been going for the last couple of years, I'm pretty much giving up on trying to understand any of it at this point.

Having said all of that, if your copy does go up in value, I think it's only fair that we split the profits.

 

Edited April 22, 2022 by Domo Arigato

[Jesse-Lee]

On 4/22/2022 at 12:13 AM, Domo Arigato said:

You could be right, and I might be kicking myself (yet again) when it ends ups selling for 10 times the current price.  I bought a beautiful CGC 9.4 copy of Hulk #181 with white pages back around 2001 or 2002 for about $1,875.  Sold it not long after that for around $2,350 and thought I'd made out like a bandit.  Time has not been kind to that decision. 

I don't collect or invest in moderns, which I'm sure plays a part in my viewpoint.  And the way the comic book market as a whole has been going for the last couple of years, I'm pretty much giving up on trying to understand any of it at this point.

Having said all of that, if your copy does go up in value, I think it's only fair that we split the profits.

 

Ah man, sorry to hear about the 181 - I'd love to own that book, but it's out of my range at this point. I too hope I'm right and the UF4 goes up, but we'll see. In 20 years I could just as likely be dead, or all the books I own could be worth more as kindling than they are as "investments." But I like this book, so I figured it was worth the $650.

Call me 25 years from now, and I'll definitely split the profits with you*!

*This is a non-binding statement made in jest. No profits will be split, and any access to Jesse-Lee's yacht (or virtual reality Metaverse world, or toilet paper, or bartered safety from world-ending zombies, or any other instrument of value) bought from the profits of selling his Ultimate Fallout 4 CGC graded 9.2 comic will be denied to user Domo Arigato.

[Cat]

On 4/22/2022 at 11:50 AM, Bluemedgroup said:

In the end we are tough on CGC because they are the gold standard.  But mistakes happen.  They probably make what 10 mistakes per 5,000 books?  That would be 0.2%.  

I'm sure plenty of us have bosses who could only dream that our mistake rate is 0.2%.  

Heck, I do chart reviews at work and we average about 92% correct, 8% incorrect each month.  

We're in no position to make any definite statement on their error rate in empirical terms, let alone then praise them for the low error rate we've just made up for them. 

[Gaard]

On 4/21/2022 at 9:50 PM, Bluemedgroup said:

They probably make what 10 mistakes per 5,000 books?  That would be 0.2%.  

Conjecture. Purely speculative.

[Lazyboy]

On 4/21/2022 at 9:15 PM, ExNihilo said:

This is pure speculation on my part, but to me this is a 1st appearance on the level of Venom and Wolverine.  And by that I mean it's lightning in a bottle.  It's the biggest 1st appearance of its generation in the same way Wolverine is the iconic Bronze Age 1st appearance, and Venom is the iconic Copper Age 1st appearance (yes, there's TMNT, but that's on a whole other level).  People gravitate towards Miles and his popularity has skyrocketed.  I don't see his popularity waning and I expect we'll look back 30 years from now the same way we see ASM300 today as a must have book for any collector.  The biggest difference is that ASM300 took decades to approach the $3k mark while UF4 has taken only a few years.  I can't imagine there's much more room for growth, but I also don't see this book coming down in price.  Again, that's just my .

No. It's more like on the level of first appearances like Spider-Man 2099 #1, What If... ? #105, and Ultimate Spider-Man #1. All Spider-Man derivatives who had their moment in the sun before settling in their place.

[wombat]

On 4/21/2022 at 9:50 PM, Bluemedgroup said:

In the end we are tough on CGC because they are the gold standard.  But mistakes happen.  They probably make what 10 mistakes per 5,000 books?  That would be 0.2%.  

I'm sure plenty of us have bosses who could only dream that our mistake rate is 0.2%.  

Heck, I do chart reviews at work and we average about 92% correct, 8% incorrect each month.  

You literally just pulled some numbers out of your butt and then you want to have a discussion on how those numbers stack up. I guess that is one way to go. 

[jcjames]

On 4/22/2022 at 5:22 AM, Lazyboy said:

No. It's more like on the level of first appearances like Spider-Man 2099 #1,  What If... ? #105 , and Ultimate Spider-Man #1. All Spider-Man derivatives who had their moment in the sun before settling in their place.

Yeah but have any of those other Spidey versions appeared in an immensely popular animated feature film and tons of popular video games? I agree though, there is definitely a hype-train running with Miles, don't know at this point how much is hype and how much is lasting popularity. 

[Bluemedgroup]

On 4/22/2022 at 7:38 AM, wombat said:

You literally just pulled some numbers out of your butt and then you want to have a discussion on how those numbers stack up. I guess that is one way to go. 

I absolutely made up those numbers.  No doubt.  Also no one knows the real answer.  I wouldn't be surprised if thousands of books are graded daily.  But its like the saying goes, bad news travels faster than good news.  

Everyone looks at the one bad carrot in a bag full of good carrots.  

 

[wombat]

On 4/22/2022 at 10:50 AM, Bluemedgroup said:

I absolutely made up those numbers.  No doubt.  Also no one knows the real answer.  I wouldn't be surprised if thousands of books are graded daily.  But its like the saying goes, bad news travels faster than good news.  

Everyone looks at the one bad carrot in a bag full of good carrots.  

 

Not all mistakes are created equal. Even a very low error rate on something can erode confidence in a product depending on what that product is. Does anyone care if .2% of staplers have an issue? Probably not. You just get a replacement stapler. But for some of the things we are seeing they could have thousands of dollars of impact in a single instance. They could also have a big knock on impact where the mistake gets passed down from seller to buyer multiple times. 

[Bluemedgroup]

On 4/22/2022 at 10:11 AM, wombat said:

Not all mistakes are created equal. Even a very low error rate on something can erode confidence in a product depending on what that product is. Does anyone care if .2% of staplers have an issue? Probably not. You just get a replacement stapler. But for some of the things we are seeing they could have thousands of dollars of impact in a single instance. They could also have a big knock on impact where the mistake gets passed down from seller to buyer multiple times. 

Agreed. I agree with your thoughts.  But that's what this world has come to though, seems like people are so quick to complain.  A customer can have 300 cups of coffee at the same Starbucks, but all it takes is 1 messed up order and they go ranting on Yelp, google reviews, etc. about how bad that coffee was. 

 

[kav]

CGC has more business than they can handle. it seems.  That is the cause of the errors.  Solution?  When you have more business than you can handle you raise your price.  Doubling it should work.  That should ease the number of submissions of modern drek that is choking the system.

[lostboys]

On 4/21/2022 at 10:20 PM, Bluemedgroup said:

He for sure will be the next generation's Peter Parker. No doubt. 

I've heard that if you ask grade school kids who Spider-man is? Some will say PP, some will say MM.  

I have a 14 year old and she is not a big Miles Morales fan. She has all the Spidey movies on blu ray and I rarely see her watching Spiderverse. She loves the T. McGuire movies.

Unless they kill Peter Parker and all Peters enemies become Miles' enemies, Miles will never be Spider Man...he will only be Miles Morales.

UF4 is being pumped and dumped. There are around 40 CGC 9.6s on ebay.

In a 9.6 Its worth more than NM98.

Its worth as much as TWD1.

Its approaching ASM 300.

 

 

 

[MattTheDuck]

On 4/22/2022 at 11:15 AM, kav said:

CGC has more business than they can handle. it seems.  That is the cause of the errors.  Solution?  When you have more business than you can handle you raise your price.  Doubling it should work.  That should ease the number of submissions of modern drek that is choking the system.

CGC will know best on what they are, but the place to dramatically increase prices is on the books that are "choking the system."  

[Bluemedgroup]

On 4/22/2022 at 1:53 PM, lostboys said:

I have a 14 year old and she is not a big Miles Morales fan. She has all the Spidey movies on blu ray and I rarely see her watching Spiderverse. She loves the T. McGuire movies.

Unless they kill Peter Parker and all Peters enemies become Miles' enemies, Miles will never be Spider Man...he will only be Miles Morales.

UF4 is being pumped and dumped. There are around 40 CGC 9.6s on ebay.

In a 9.6 Its worth more than NM98.

Its worth as much as TWD1.

Its approaching ASM 300.

 

 

 

Who knows what the future brings though?

I mean there are people out there who say their only Superman is Christopher Reeves.  

Meanwhile all the people under the age of 25 are asking who is Christopher Reeves???

[Sigur Ros]

On 4/22/2022 at 2:15 PM, kav said:

CGC has more business than they can handle. it seems.  That is the cause of the errors. 

Not true.  Volume isn't causing errors.  CGC employees are causing errors.  Blaming volume is just making excuses for them.

No matter how much work there is to do... an employee either does the work correctly or they don't.

If you want to say the pressure from above to get the work done fast is creating a situation where the employees are failing and creating errors... then that is a different story, and may or may not be the case.

Regardless, that's pressure from above mixed with employees who can't handle that pressure.... not the amount of work.

 

[shadroch]

They need to start hiring vertically challenged people so when they drop the boxes, they have less distance to fall.

[jcjames]

On 4/22/2022 at 1:36 PM, MattTheDuck said:

CGC will know best on what they are, but the place to dramatically increase prices is on the books that are "choking the system."  

i.e., everyone else's except mine

 

Edited April 22, 2022 by jcjames

[onlyweaknesskryptonite]

On 4/22/2022 at 10:50 AM, Bluemedgroup said:

Everyone looks at the one bad carrot in a bag full of good carrots.  

My last submission of 4 books was the opposite.  I had 1 book that stayed and the other 3 just arrived back at Sarasota for a return trip.